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The Jesse Hogan Panic Room - all contract talk here


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5 minutes ago, sisso said:

Don't we have any influential, super-rich supporters who can come up with a "creative" way to ensure Jesse gets an offer he can't possibly refuse....? As Carlton did with Judd?

Ha!

Somehow the AFL let that one pass but when other players (their managers more like) wanted to get on the bandwagon the AFL had a sudden attack of the integrities.

Those days are gone ...

What we need is to convince Gil that the TV ratings will be higher if Hogan stays at MFC.

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16 minutes ago, sisso said:

Don't we have any influential, super-rich supporters who can come up with a "creative" way to ensure Jesse gets an offer he can't possibly refuse....? As Carlton did with Judd?

We can offer him a percentage take of The Ox's casino winnings and a business partnership with Diamond Joe

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25 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

Peter Wright should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Hogan and therefore 2 first rd picks is that far over 

Anyone can be named in the same sentence as anyone.

Is he worth that much, maybe not, but would it get the deal done, yes. If the deal was ever to eventuate you could ask for a second rounder in return, or offer 1 pick and a player.

Its about if Hogan goes getting a ready made replacement straight in rather than picks or fringe players.

This club needs to become proactive rather than continue to be reacactive.

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1 hour ago, DominatrixTyson said:

Why bring up Carey, he'd have been far less effective in todays game with zone defences. Still a wonderful player, but not the match winner that single handedly wins premierships. A solid 60-80 a year goalkicker is very valuable, but still equal to an elite A grade midfielder, not superior.

I'd respectfully suggest that those zone defences you speak of would be tweaked to buggery in an effort to combat Carey. As ProDee said, he would be the best player in the game now. He was that good

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29 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Anthony, Darling and Membrey are not power forwards.  It's best to compare like with like.  They can't do what Hogan can do.  Did they take 90 contested marks in their first 2 years ?  In any 2 years ?  If you're not a true power forward there's definitely more of a chance you'll get shut down, which is why they're a poor comparison.

Cloke has had a very good career.  He's a poor example, unless you have a poor memory of his prime years when he was very very good.

Cameron is a gun, but a different player to Hogan.  he rarely ventures out of his forward 50 and has an uncanny knack of manufacturing goals.  Even on his poor days where he only touches it 6 times he'll find a way to kick 3 or 4 goals.

He and Cloke are the only two worth comparing and both are/were exceptional players. 

I don't agree that Darling is not a power forward. He plays the same position as Hogan IMO. But I digress.

And I really think you are missing the point, which is that players improve at different rates. Hogan has had a great first two/three years, but many players who start their careers strongly don't progress to the levels that most expect.

My biggest concern with Hogan is that his strengths are very good and don't need improving significantly, but his weaknesses have not improved in the last two years. He is still an inconsistent kick for goal and applies poor defensive pressure. He also doesn't get enough goals from ground level play.

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32 minutes ago, sisso said:

Don't we have any influential, super-rich supporters who can come up with a "creative" way to ensure Jesse gets an offer he can't possibly refuse....? As Carlton did with Judd?

if we could/are i doubt we'd be advertising it :lol:

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14 minutes ago, Go the Biff said:

I'd respectfully suggest that those zone defences you speak of would be tweaked to buggery in an effort to combat Carey. As ProDee said, he would be the best player in the game now. He was that good

Carey didn't need to play a full game, hell, often he won the game for Norf in 15 minutes.

Super star.

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22 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

I don't agree that Darling is not a power forward. He plays the same position as Hogan IMO. But I digress.

And I really think you are missing the point, which is that players improve at different rates. Hogan has had a great first two/three years, but many players who start their careers strongly don't progress to the levels that most expect.

My biggest concern with Hogan is that his strengths are very good and don't need improving significantly, but his weaknesses have not improved in the last two years. He is still an inconsistent kick for goal and applies poor defensive pressure. He also doesn't get enough goals from ground level play.

I understand your point, but disagree with it re Hogan.  Quality power forwards are far less likely than the Jack Anthony's of this world to drop off.  They have skillsets that set them apart.

Btw, Hogan was a gun at 17 for Swan District's Colts.

He got better and won Casey's B&F when he was 18 and the youngest player in the team.  From 13 completed games.

He got better again in his first year of AFL on his way to winning the Rising Star.  And even for two thirds of this year his numbers were up before he dropped off.  Apparently Tom Lynch can keep improving, but not Hogan, even though he'll get stronger, fitter and more experienced as he progresses.  Hogan gets marked differently to many of his peers.  Must be his body language. 

Hogan is a very good and smart field kick, but yes, needs to improve his goal-kicking and penetration.  He can improve his technique.  

A lack of defensive pressure is the least of my concerns. 

You're right about Darling.  I don't consider him a power forward, so our perceptions on players and positions vary.

Anyway, enough.  You won't change my mind nor me yours.

 

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3 hours ago, Members' Wing said:

I can't be bothered checking but I can say with 99% certainty that Jack Darling did NOT kick 53 goals in his first year of footy. From memory I don't reckon he kicked half that.

kicked 53 in his second  24 in his first

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3 hours ago, Redleg said:

Iva, how reliable and accurate do you believe your snout is?

 

I wouldn't think Fremantle would be a likely preferred destination for Hogan if he's concerned with getting better as a key forward as his career unfolds. With Lyon as coach and master of defensive football, I can see Hogan getting frustrated with that style of play. If his body language is poor now, just imagine.

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5 hours ago, DubDee said:

we don't know where he is going yet.  and freo have been top 4 for the last few years

Rivers, Chip, Howe all chose to leave the Dees in search of success.  you could argue we were not too bothered by Howe but he would be in our backline

not to mention that bottom feeder Scully.  as soon as we have a potential star on our list, the talk starts of where will he go.  its BS

No evidence we tried to keep these players...I don't think we made an offer for the FA and Howe we didn't fight for. 

I said last 3 years, the Roos years. There is no evidence that we are losing players to top clubs unless we chose them to go.

...and we don't know if Hogan is going anywhere.

So stop slashing your wrists 'Dub', we've lost no one yet and if we do big deal. The so called power clubs do to.

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9 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Your analysis is selective in that it doesn’t also compare Hogan to players who started their career well and plateaued or fizzled out. For instance, Jack Anthony kicked 50 goals in 2009 as a 21-year-old and is no longer in the AFL. Jack Darling kicked 53 and 42 goals in his first two years and has not progressed any further. Jeremy Cameron kicked 62 goals in 2013 and doesn’t look a better player today. Travis Cloke won Collingwood’s best and fairest at 20. Tim Membery kicked 44 goals this year at 22.

The point of this post is not that Hogan is an Anthony but that players develop at different rates. Whilst we all hope that Hogan can reach the heights of Carey and Brown, and he is off to a great start, it is not the fait accompli that most on Demonland seem to think it is.

It's been said but any analysis that doesn't compare Hogan to every forward is going to be "selective" to those who don't like what it says

Players do develop at different rates, agree with that, but that doesn't mean that someone who starts well (Go The Biff's post demonstrates that Hogan has, clearly, started well) is less of a chance to improve.

And as for the bolded bit, you clearly aren't reading this thread consistently. IMO "most on Demonland" either genuinely don't think Hogan is worth keeping or have deliberately downplayed his ability to soften the blow they think is coming when he leaves.

Either way, "most on Demonland" are rubbishing one of the competitions most genuinely exciting future prospects.

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7 hours ago, Ted Fidge said:

Ha!

Somehow the AFL let that one pass but when other players (their managers more like) wanted to get on the bandwagon the AFL had a sudden attack of the integrities.

Those days are gone ...

What we need is to convince Gil that the TV ratings will be higher if Hogan stays at MFC.

No chance. Just saw Danger doing some safe driving commerical for Geelong. I wonder how much cash he's being paid for that.....

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1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

It's been said but any analysis that doesn't compare Hogan to every forward is going to be "selective" to those who don't like what it says

Players do develop at different rates, agree with that, but that doesn't mean that someone who starts well (Go The Biff's post demonstrates that Hogan has, clearly, started well) is less of a chance to improve.

And as for the bolded bit, you clearly aren't reading this thread consistently. IMO "most on Demonland" either genuinely don't think Hogan is worth keeping or have deliberately downplayed his ability to soften the blow they think is coming when he leaves.

Either way, "most on Demonland" are rubbishing one of the competitions most genuinely exciting future prospects.

I think you nailed it when you said- 'deliberately downplayed his ability to soften the blow they think is coming when he leaves'

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50 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

I think you nailed it when you said- 'deliberately downplayed his ability to soften the blow they think is coming when he leaves'

It's not a matter of downplaying his ability, but downplaying the tactical importance of his ability in the future with how the game is headed, whether it's going to be an accurate prediction or not is up for discussion.  

Some people are leaning towards the Patton/Wright/Boyd type big bodied 200+cm stay at home tall forward and the 195cm flexible midfielder as the new direction and Hogan may be caught inbetween. 

If he stays then I would like him to replicate Nick Riewoldts game more with leading patterns and long distance fitness, rather than the stay at home wrestling forward that is easily double teamed. Tbqh many people are bored with the Hawkins and Clokes of this world, and would rather take a chance on trading in elite midfielders and letting a forward line develop and form from the base of having more consistent and skillful delivery into it.

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Hurts to say but he is GONE - review facts (not opinions or perceptions) below.

Facts::

  • 1 yr ago, Freo who were seen as the likely destination club, were flying and looking to add a key forward to their line up to get that elusive flag
  • 1 yr ago, MFC had shown improvement under Roos but still had signficant offensive issues and still looked a few years away from contending in finals
  • 1 yr ago, we were told, neogitations were postponed for 1 yr to see how the MFC was performing and for Jessie to concentrate of footy and take heat out of debate
  • This year, Freo have performed poorly and are set for a significant rebuild or reset. West coast had another 'finals' year and have publicly stated they want Jessie
  • This year, MFC have improved significantly by honing its offensive game
  • This year, Goodwin stated recently that it was now the end of the year and talks should therefore commence with Jessie as promised. Media pressure subsequently mounted on Jessie, and we were told, negotiations won't commence for some time and Jessie was struggling between improving mfc and returning to WA

So in summary, promised improvement in MFC happened, negotiations that were promised didn't happen, playing at Freo is no longer an attractive option, West Coast have emerged as an interested party and played in another finals series.Most of the points for Jessie staying are mostly based on hope (I still do this from time to time but are reminded of Scully's final year).

Put yourself in Jessie's shoes and assume he is going for a moment..He has a contract so will stick to it unless MFC approach him. Freo looked like his preferred option but he doesn't want to be involved in another team rebuild. So by waiting another year, his value will build in the market place and he can assess whether Freo will bounce back or whether West coast become a better option.

For the MFC, trading for Jessie now would be pointless as the best players that are interested in a move have already decided their clubs. So we can't really trade for any high quality players this year only picks (and we can always trade for picks next year anyway). So its in our interest for Jessie to stay with us this year, while we work with player mgrs to pick up some a-grade talent next year with the picks we get for Jessie and gain slightly more mature talent before finals footy

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3 hours ago, DominatrixTyson said:

It's not a matter of downplaying his ability, but downplaying the tactical importance of his ability in the future with how the game is headed, whether it's going to be an accurate prediction or not is up for discussion.  

Some people are leaning towards the Patton/Wright/Boyd type big bodied 200+cm stay at home tall forward and the 195cm flexible midfielder as the new direction and Hogan may be caught inbetween. 

If he stays then I would like him to replicate Nick Riewoldts game more with leading patterns and long distance fitness, rather than the stay at home wrestling forward that is easily double teamed. Tbqh many people are bored with the Hawkins and Clokes of this world, and would rather take a chance on trading in elite midfielders and letting a forward line develop and form from the base of having more consistent and skillful delivery into it.

So now Hogan is too short for a key forward ?  FMD.  People's brains must explode with some of their theories.

What I can say is that no 200cm key forward has ever been a consistently dominant forward in the history of the game.  Ever.  That may change, but the next will be a pioneer (Salmon injured early).

I think Hogan is going to be right for a while.  If he's tall enough to be in the top 5 contested marks in the game, and we know he has footy smarts, then I suspect he's not the tweener you claim. 

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