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The Jesse Hogan Panic Room - all contract talk here


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Just now, Django said:

His recovery is such an unknown until he is seen playing - all of those guys you mentioned earlier might have bounced back from various, but I definitely don't want us to trade Hogan for an unknown. And as I said earlier, I wouldn't even want us to trade Hogan for a lesser version of the Fyfe that won the Brownlow.

Personally I'd rather see 'Jones, Gawn, Viney, Vince and Hogan'. He'll be a huge drawcard in the very near future.

Agreed, I don't want us to trade Hogan either, actively seeking the trade is madness, but my concern is we may not have a choice in the matter. And Fyfe would be my starting price.

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19 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

But when asked if he was leaving he blinked 3 times more than he normaly would. If that is not evidence I dont know what is.

I know what it is - blinking.  Not evidence of anything.  Until you can describe what he was thinking as he was answering the question, and the ideomotor response (blinking) that it triggered, this ain't evidence.  He might of been thinking about Chiko Rolls, who knows?

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4 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

I know what it is - blinking.  Not evidence of anything.  Until you can describe what he was thinking as he was answering the question, and the ideomotor response (blinking) that it triggered, this ain't evidence.  He might of been thinking about Chiko Rolls, who knows?

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25 minutes ago, Watts the matter said:

You have conveniently ignored the first paragraph of my post.

While I agree with your point that by saying someone is better at something than someone else it does not necessarily mean you would be underselling them. However, as Hogan has a poor ground level game (IMO, which you obviously don't agree with), that would then mean you are underselling Lynch by saying Hogans is better. Not rocket science. 

 

I think the lynch v hogan is not really germain to hogans contract situation but is an intersting discussion none the less.

For what its worth i think lynch is also an absolute gun. Interestingly though he is 2 and a half years older than hogan and it was only the second half of 2015 that lynch really started to hit his straps. To make a comparison you have to try and imagine where hogan will be in two and a half years. Scary good i reckon.

Lynch is incredibly atheltic for such a tall player and the combination of height and athleticism is the ace up his sleeve. But i also  disagree with your assement of hogans ground level game. He is amazing on the ground and whilst no slouch lynch pales in comparion in this area. Plus i would contend hogan reads the game better. No doubt though that lynch is a better kick, particularly over distance. All that said both are stars.

Johnathon patton and Tom boyd a are much better comparions i reckon given they are both around the same age and both were number 1 draft picks. Few if any would have either ahead of hogan at this stage. However what is pertinent is few would be surprised if both turn out to be guns by their mid twenties - the age most power forwards start to reach their full potential. Imagine hogan at 25 with 3 more full afl seaons and four pre seasons. 

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41 minutes ago, binman said:

It shouldnt but it amazes me rhat anyone, let alone demon fans who watch hogan week in week out could question hogans ability and status as a potential future star of the game.

His first two season's he kicks 40 plus goals, top 10 in contested marks, averages not far off 20 possessions a game, reads the game beautifully, has a massive tank that enables him to get up and down the ground and run defenders ragged (yet some still persist in calling him a stay at home old school dinosaur), is brlliant on the ground (are people actually watching?), has great hands, crashes packs, is super competitive and is a pure footballer. And he is only 21!

I find it even more amazing that some posters who do not rate hogan as highly as i do also seem to expect that freo or wc will give up mutiple top 5 draft picks or one of their best players, or indeed a combination. I mean we are talking professional recruiting teams that pour thousands of hours into such decisions and have access to all the data they could ever need.

You cant have it both ways. If not a gun then we wont do that well in the trade. Or perhaps some posters analysis of footballers ability is better than the pros.

Would say we are far from a feeder club. Reality is if Jesse decides to go we've lost three players in a short period of time. It can be argued that we were perhaps over compensated for Frawley but that was because we were crap at the time. 

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13 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

Agreed, I don't want us to trade Hogan either, actively seeking the trade is madness, but my concern is we may not have a choice in the matter. And Fyfe would be my starting price.

Me thinks Freo will not budge on Fyfe or Neal for that matter so it would be off to the draft we go once again.  

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5 minutes ago, binman said:

I think the lynch v hogan is not really germain to hogans contract situation but is an intersting discussion none the less.

For what its worth i think lynch is also an absolute gun. Interstingly though he is 2 and a half years older than hogan and it was only the second half of 2015 that lynch really started to hit his straps. To make a comparison you have to try and imagine whwre hofan will be in two and a half years. Scary good i reckon.

Lynch is incredibly atheltic for such a tall player and the combination of height and athleticism is the ace up his sleeve. But i also  disagree with your assement of hogans ground level game. He is amazing on the ground and whilst no slouch lynch pales in comparion in this area. Plus i would contend hogan reads the game better. No doubt though that lynch is a better kick, particularly over distance. All that said both are stars.

Johnathon patton and Tom boyd a are much better comparions i reckon given they are both around the same age and both were number 1 draft picks. Few if any would have either ahead of hogan at this stage. However what is pertinet few would be surprised if both turn out to be gubs by their mid twenties - the age most power forwards start to reach their full potential. Imagine hogan at 25 with 3 more full afl seaons and four pre seasons. 

For some bewildering reason every time Tom Lynch is mentioned the name Lucas Cook pups up in my mind. Becoming rather annoying. 

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Just now, Flamingdees said:

Me thinks Freo will not budge on Fyfe or Neal for that matter so it would be off to the draft we go once again.  

Truth. But I would have thought we would not budge on Hogan? Reality is its just our job to make trading for Hogan as difficult as humanly possible. A couple of first round picks is just not good enough. Particularly if one of those picks is a future pick. Cant wait that long otherwise the tallent we have now will also look elsewhere. 

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I've decided it's all a cunning ruse by the MFC and Hogan to lure Freo into offering Fyfe for Hogan, at which point Hogan re-signs with Melbourne, and we then take Fyfe as a free agent next year, before storming to win the 2018 Premiership...

Boom. 

:)

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12 hours ago, ProDee said:

Good God Ron.

Referencing Tom Boyd's ruck skills ?  They're ordinary.  But at least they get him a game.  Without them he's at Footscray.

Lynch is a better grab ?  Yes he is, but Hogan is in the best 5 marks in the competition.   You know, out of nearly 800 players.  WTF would you even go there.  At the same age Hogan was a better mark.

Lynch is more mobile ?  Bullcrap.  Hogan is more creative, faster and better at ground balls than Lynch.  Hogan is a far superior handballer than Lynch.

Hogan was also the better player at the same age.  Check the goals kicked after the same games played.

Some of you flogs don't deserve a talent like Hogan.

In 2026, Hogan will have spent several years as one of the greatest KPFs in AFL/VFL history. Season 2016 will be looked upon as the season that (while having to deal with family issues that took more out of him than anybody realized at the time) a kink or two popped up in his game that needed to be successfully ironed out in 2017.

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30 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

Truth. But I would have thought we would not budge on Hogan? Reality is its just our job to make trading for Hogan as difficult as humanly possible. A couple of first round picks is just not good enough. Particularly if one of those picks is a future pick. Cant wait that long otherwise the tallent we have now will also look elsewhere. 

As a club we need to play hard ball.  The reality is however players who want to go home tend to always get their wish. 

Agree that two top eight picks will not compensate us considering what we gave up for Jesse, the work we have put into him and the potential he has. 

Fyfe or Neal might be a deal that compensates us.  Having said that these guys are contracted, Neal has just signed a long term deal and Fyfe is a WA boy.  These blokes will have to agree to a trade.  I know Jesse is contracted as well however the club has to weigh up potentially trading him now or next year if he wants to go. We might be able to suck more out of a trade this year.

Further to that I too am sick of waiting and waiting for our young players to develop. The club can only sell this hope for so long before supporters start to get shitty. It's already been 10 years since we've made finals. 

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53 minutes ago, Flamingdees said:

For some bewildering reason every time Tom Lynch is mentioned the name Lucas Cook pups up in my mind. Becoming rather annoying. 

Lynch was Plan A.

Cook Plan B.

Sad.

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1 hour ago, Watts the matter said:

While I agree with your point that by saying someone is better at something than someone else it does not necessarily mean you would be underselling them. However, as Hogan has a poor ground level game (IMO, which you obviously don't agree with), that would then mean you are underselling Lynch by saying Hogans is better. Not rocket science. 

 

I will never take anything you ever say about football seriously again.

Cheers, Bud.

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Quite funny.

Barrett says we should clear Jesse if we get 2 picks under 8.

He then says about Carlton, they need a key forward, but they are very hard to find. But we should clear ours, who may end up one of the best.

The Eagles say they want Jesse, but won't clear Darling, as key forwards are so hard to find. But we should clear ours to them.

Some people just don't think, before they speak or write.

 

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2 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Quite funny.

Barrett says we should clear Jesse if we get 2 picks under 8.

He then says about Carlton, they need a key forward, but they are very hard to find. But we should clear ours, who may end up one of the best.

The Eagles say they want Jesse, but won't clear Darling, as key forwards are so hard to find. But we should clear ours to them.

Some people just don't think, before they speak or write.

 

They do. But they think, "Poor Melbourne, they'll never keep a player like Hogan. Better just sell him now". And they can get stuffed

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10 hours ago, Watts the matter said:

Lynch definitely has a better all round game at this stage. Features much more prominently is goal assists in addition to goals kicked in a inferior team. It appears you're really underselling him.

The second point everyone is aware of. The query many have with Hogan, including myself, is how much more upside he has. He doesn't have a huge leap and gets the majority of his goals from set shots. While his marking is very good, it remains to be seen how many other strings to his bow he has. 

At this stage there are major questions on his ground level game, kicking accuracy, kicking depth/range and defensive efforts.

The Jon Brown comparison is a good one, although I don't think anyone fears Jesse Hogan and his foot skills aren't as good. 

 

I suspect some have lost sight of what we’ve got here in Hogan. Particularly those with goldfish memories. The kid is a gun, any way you look at it

I hate using stats but some find them illuminating so I’ll run a few comparisons based on Hogan’s first two seasons. Including his crappy back third to 2016

 

Wayne Carey could play a bit. I’ll give him a bit of a leg up and ignore his first year & compare his second and third seasons to Hogan’s first 2. Carey played 35 games in that period. Hogan 41.

On average Hogan matches him for kicks (9.4). Hogan leads in marks (6.9 – 5.2), handballs (4.6 – 4.3), goals (2.1 – 1.9) and tackles (1.3 – 0.8)

Jono Brown went alright too. I’ll do him the same favour, giving him his first season as a warm-up and compare his second & third to Hogan’s career to date. Brown played 44 games in that period.

Hogan has him covered in average kicks, marks, goals and tackles. In those 44 games JB took 64 contested marks to Hogan’s 90. It was mentioned that Hogan isn’t “feared” like Brown was. I don’t think Brown was especially feared when he was 20.

Now some may argue that today’s game is a higher possession game than in Carey & Brown’s eras and they’d be right. I’d also argue that the explosion in possessions has come in the midfield and chipping across & backwards from half-back. Not the forward line

TGR mentioned Jarryd Roughead, a more recent example. Again I’ll give a free pass to Roughead for his first season and compare his second and third where he played mainly forward. He played 42 games in this period

On average, Hogan leads him in kicks (9.4 – 6.4), marks (6.9 – 4.4), goals (2.1 – 1.2). Their average handballs are equal and Roughy leads the tackle average by 0.1 per game. In that period Roughy took 33 contested marks to Hogan’s 90

I’ve used the second & third seasons for these blokes to counter the argument that Hogan had been in the system for 2 years before debut and was older. If you compare their first two seasons with Hogan, he streets them. Streets them.

Gold Coast’s Tom Lynch is a gun. A future champion in my view. But it took him until his fourth season to match what Hogan did in his first. A season where GC won 10 games so they were hardly spudding it up.

Hogan has flaws no doubt but they are fixable in my view. He gets belted for his goalkicking accuracy but no-one complained last year when he had a conversion rate a shade below 70%. Until Round 17 this year he was tracking at 63%. Not too shabby. The wheels fell off in his last six games where he kicked 3 goals 11, dragging his season conversion rate down to 55%. To my eye his field kicking fell away in his last six games as well which suggests to me that something was amiss. Whether it be physical, mental or confidence – who knows but there was a definite decline from the earlier part of the season.

Body language – yeah, sometimes not great. But so what – the goal kicking record holder at the MCG had some of the worst body language of all time. Hogan has been described by coaches & team mates as “a competitive beast”. To me it’s obvious that he has high demands of himself and gets disappointed when he fails to deliver. And sometimes he shows it. He’s 20 years old.

Stats can only tell you so much. If there are posters can’t see how much ground he can cover, how agile he is, how good his decision making is in general play then short of inundating the site with YouTube clips I’m not sure how to demonstrate it. And he has got a leap as evidenced by that (albeit unsuccessful) hanger he went for towards the end of the season. He flew. Why he doesn’t use it more often I don’t know

The kid is 20 years old. He has lots to learn but is already good and could well be great. Great – capital G. And he plays for us. There are posters suggesting we should cut any potential losses and trade him now. The type that can’t see the forest for the draft picks. My view is that we should be moving heaven and earth to keep him. If that means making allowances for his current personal circumstances then so be it. But holding a gun to his head and demanding his signature is dumb.

Some suggest we’ll be fine without him. I’m more of the opinion that if we lose him it will haunt us like no other loss since Barassi.

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8 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Quite funny.

Barrett says we should clear Jesse if we get 2 picks under 8.

He then says about Carlton, they need a key forward, but they are very hard to find. But we should clear ours, who may end up one of the best.

The Eagles say they want Jesse, but won't clear Darling, as key forwards are so hard to find. But we should clear ours to them.

Some people just don't think, before they speak or write.

 

The footy show can reveal exclusively that Damien Barrett is a [censored].

in all seriousness, he's just running with what everyone else in the media is banging on about, hoping if he makes enough noise something will happen because he hates MFC

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2 minutes ago, Go the Biff said:

I suspect some have lost sight of what we’ve got here in Hogan. Particularly those with goldfish memories. The kid is a gun, any way you look at it

Some suggest we’ll be fine without him. I’m more of the opinion that if we lose him it will haunt us like no other loss since Barassi.

You have my vote.

If I could ever be bothered doing the research, I would have felt vindicated in posting exactly what you just did.

 

We need Hogan to stay.

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5 minutes ago, Go the Biff said:

I suspect some have lost sight of what we’ve got here in Hogan. Particularly those with goldfish memories. The kid is a gun, any way you look at it

 

 

I hate using stats but some find them illuminating so I’ll run a few comparisons based on Hogan’s first two seasons. Including his crappy back third to 2016

 

 

 

 

Wayne Carey could play a bit. I’ll give him a bit of a leg up and ignore his first year & compare his second and third seasons to Hogan’s first 2. Carey played 35 games in that period. Hogan 41.

 

 

On average Hogan matches him for kicks (9.4). Hogan leads in marks (6.9 – 5.2), handballs (4.6 – 4.3), goals (2.1 – 1.9) and tackles (1.3 – 0.8)

 

 

Jono Brown went alright too. I’ll do him the same favour, giving him his first season as a warm-up and compare his second & third to Hogan’s career to date. Brown played 44 games in that period.

 

 

Hogan has him covered in average kicks, marks, goals and tackles. In those 44 games JB took 64 contested marks to Hogan’s 90. It was mentioned that Hogan isn’t “feared” like Brown was. I don’t think Brown was especially feared when he was 20.

 

 

Now some may argue that today’s game is a higher possession game than in Carey & Brown’s eras and they’d be right. I’d also argue that the explosion in possessions has come in the midfield and chipping across & backwards from half-back. Not the forward line

 

 

TGR mentioned Jarryd Roughead, a more recent example. Again I’ll give a free pass to Roughead for his first season and compare his second and third where he played mainly forward. He played 42 games in this period

 

 

On average, Hogan leads him in kicks (9.4 – 6.4), marks (6.9 – 4.4), goals (2.1 – 1.2). Their average handballs are equal and Roughy leads the tackle average by 0.1 per game. In that period Roughy took 33 contested marks to Hogan’s 90

 

 

I’ve used the second & third seasons for these blokes to counter the argument that Hogan had been in the system for 2 years before debut and was older. If you compare their first two seasons with Hogan, he streets them. Streets them.

 

 

Gold Coast’s Tom Lynch is a gun. A future champion in my view. But it took him until his fourth season to match what Hogan did in his first. A season where GC won 10 games so they were hardly spudding it up.

 

 

Hogan has flaws no doubt but they are fixable in my view. He gets belted for his goalkicking accuracy but no-one complained last year when he had a conversion rate a shade below 70%. Until Round 17 this year he was tracking at 63%. Not too shabby. The wheels fell off in his last six games where he kicked 3 goals 11, dragging his season conversion rate down to 55%. To my eye his field kicking fell away in his last six games as well which suggests to me that something was amiss. Whether it be physical, mental or confidence – who knows but there was a definite decline from the earlier part of the season.

 

 

Body language – yeah, sometimes not great. But so what – the goal kicking record holder at the MCG had some of the worst body language of all time. Hogan has been described by coaches & team mates as “a competitive beast”. To me it’s obvious that he has high demands of himself and gets disappointed when he fails to deliver. And sometimes he shows it. He’s 20 years old.

 

 

Stats can only tell you so much. If there are posters can’t see how much ground he can cover, how agile he is, how good his decision making is in general play then short of inundating the site with YouTube clips I’m not sure how to demonstrate it. And he has got a leap as evidenced by that (albeit unsuccessful) hanger he went for towards the end of the season. He flew. Why he doesn’t use it more often I don’t know

 

 

The kid is 20 years old. He has lots to learn but is already good and could well be great. Great – capital G. And he plays for us. There are posters suggesting we should cut any potential losses and trade him now. The type that can’t see the forest for the draft picks. My view is that we should be moving heaven and earth to keep him. If that means making allowances for his current personal circumstances then so be it. But holding a gun to his head and demanding his signature is dumb.

 

 

Some suggest we’ll be fine without him. I’m more of the opinion that if we lose him it will haunt us like no other loss since Barassi.

Nice analysis. Hogan is a phenomenal prospect and we need to do everything we can to hold onto him.

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20 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Quite funny.

Barrett says we should clear Jesse if we get 2 picks under 8.

He then says about Carlton, they need a key forward, but they are very hard to find. But we should clear ours, who may end up one of the best.

The Eagles say they want Jesse, but won't clear Darling, as key forwards are so hard to find. But we should clear ours to them.

Some people just don't think, before they speak or write.

 

Barrett is scum... but maybe he rates Weideman, Watts and Hullett.

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25 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Quite funny.

Barrett says we should clear Jesse if we get 2 picks under 8.

He then says about Carlton, they need a key forward, but they are very hard to find. But we should clear ours, who may end up one of the best.

The Eagles say they want Jesse, but won't clear Darling, as key forwards are so hard to find. But we should clear ours to them.

Some people just don't think, before they speak or write.

 

2 draft picks under 8 would get us Peter Wright. 

GCS can start their rebuild again, this time maybe go after more competitive types.

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