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20 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Barrett is scum... but maybe he rates Weideman, Watts and Hullett.

Nah, he just has no idea. Those three might form a formidable forward line one day, but realistically the young guys won't be firing for at least 2 years.

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36 minutes ago, Go the Biff said:

I suspect some have lost sight of what we’ve got here in Hogan. Particularly those with goldfish memories. The kid is a gun, any way you look at it

 

 

I hate using stats but some find them illuminating so I’ll run a few comparisons based on Hogan’s first two seasons. Including his crappy back third to 2016

 

 

 

 

Wayne Carey could play a bit. I’ll give him a bit of a leg up and ignore his first year & compare his second and third seasons to Hogan’s first 2. Carey played 35 games in that period. Hogan 41.

 

 

On average Hogan matches him for kicks (9.4). Hogan leads in marks (6.9 – 5.2), handballs (4.6 – 4.3), goals (2.1 – 1.9) and tackles (1.3 – 0.8)

 

 

Jono Brown went alright too. I’ll do him the same favour, giving him his first season as a warm-up and compare his second & third to Hogan’s career to date. Brown played 44 games in that period.

 

 

Hogan has him covered in average kicks, marks, goals and tackles. In those 44 games JB took 64 contested marks to Hogan’s 90. It was mentioned that Hogan isn’t “feared” like Brown was. I don’t think Brown was especially feared when he was 20.

 

 

Now some may argue that today’s game is a higher possession game than in Carey & Brown’s eras and they’d be right. I’d also argue that the explosion in possessions has come in the midfield and chipping across & backwards from half-back. Not the forward line

 

 

TGR mentioned Jarryd Roughead, a more recent example. Again I’ll give a free pass to Roughead for his first season and compare his second and third where he played mainly forward. He played 42 games in this period

 

 

On average, Hogan leads him in kicks (9.4 – 6.4), marks (6.9 – 4.4), goals (2.1 – 1.2). Their average handballs are equal and Roughy leads the tackle average by 0.1 per game. In that period Roughy took 33 contested marks to Hogan’s 90

 

 

I’ve used the second & third seasons for these blokes to counter the argument that Hogan had been in the system for 2 years before debut and was older. If you compare their first two seasons with Hogan, he streets them. Streets them.

 

 

Gold Coast’s Tom Lynch is a gun. A future champion in my view. But it took him until his fourth season to match what Hogan did in his first. A season where GC won 10 games so they were hardly spudding it up.

 

 

Hogan has flaws no doubt but they are fixable in my view. He gets belted for his goalkicking accuracy but no-one complained last year when he had a conversion rate a shade below 70%. Until Round 17 this year he was tracking at 63%. Not too shabby. The wheels fell off in his last six games where he kicked 3 goals 11, dragging his season conversion rate down to 55%. To my eye his field kicking fell away in his last six games as well which suggests to me that something was amiss. Whether it be physical, mental or confidence – who knows but there was a definite decline from the earlier part of the season.

 

 

Body language – yeah, sometimes not great. But so what – the goal kicking record holder at the MCG had some of the worst body language of all time. Hogan has been described by coaches & team mates as “a competitive beast”. To me it’s obvious that he has high demands of himself and gets disappointed when he fails to deliver. And sometimes he shows it. He’s 20 years old.

 

 

Stats can only tell you so much. If there are posters can’t see how much ground he can cover, how agile he is, how good his decision making is in general play then short of inundating the site with YouTube clips I’m not sure how to demonstrate it. And he has got a leap as evidenced by that (albeit unsuccessful) hanger he went for towards the end of the season. He flew. Why he doesn’t use it more often I don’t know

 

 

The kid is 20 years old. He has lots to learn but is already good and could well be great. Great – capital G. And he plays for us. There are posters suggesting we should cut any potential losses and trade him now. The type that can’t see the forest for the draft picks. My view is that we should be moving heaven and earth to keep him. If that means making allowances for his current personal circumstances then so be it. But holding a gun to his head and demanding his signature is dumb.

 

 

Some suggest we’ll be fine without him. I’m more of the opinion that if we lose him it will haunt us like no other loss since Barassi.

Your analysis is selective in that it doesn’t also compare Hogan to players who started their career well and plateaued or fizzled out. For instance, Jack Anthony kicked 50 goals in 2009 as a 21-year-old and is no longer in the AFL. Jack Darling kicked 53 and 42 goals in his first two years and has not progressed any further. Jeremy Cameron kicked 62 goals in 2013 and doesn’t look a better player today. Travis Cloke won Collingwood’s best and fairest at 20. Tim Membery kicked 44 goals this year at 22.

The point of this post is not that Hogan is an Anthony but that players develop at different rates. Whilst we all hope that Hogan can reach the heights of Carey and Brown, and he is off to a great start, it is not the fait accompli that most on Demonland seem to think it is.

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13 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

Your analysis is selective in that it doesn’t also compare Hogan to players who started their career well and plateaued or fizzled out. For instance, Jack Anthony kicked 50 goals in 2009 as a 21-year-old and is no longer in the AFL. Jack Darling kicked 53 and 42 goals in his first two years and has not progressed any further. Jeremy Cameron kicked 62 goals in 2013 and doesn’t look a better player today. Travis Cloke won Collingwood’s best and fairest at 20. Tim Membery kicked 44 goals this year at 22.

 

The point of this post is not that Hogan is an Anthony but that players develop at different rates. Whilst we all hope that Hogan can reach the heights of Carey and Brown, and he is off to a great start, it is not the fait accompli that most on Demonland seem to think it is.

 

 

Go the biff chooses Great players to compare him to because if you have seen enough football you can see he is likely to become Great too. A fait accompli? Of course not. There is no certainties in life. Ask david schwarz. He was destined to be a great, of that i have no doubt, until injury intervened.

As bif said so well stats are only part of the picture. You just have to watch hogan to know his potential. And you just had to watch both darling and anthony to know neither were ever going to be more than good afl players. There simply is no comparison between hogan and those two.

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Why bring up Carey, he'd have been far less effective in todays game with zone defences. Still a wonderful player, but not the match winner that single handedly wins premierships. A solid 60-80 a year goalkicker is very valuable, but still equal to an elite A grade midfielder, not superior.

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3 hours ago, rjay said:

Freo are hardly a big gun...and there's no evidence we are becoming a feeder club.

We haven't lost anyone we didn't want to lose over the last 3 years.

There's also no evidence Hogan is going, just speculation.

we don't know where he is going yet.  and freo have been top 4 for the last few years

Rivers, Chip, Howe all chose to leave the Dees in search of success.  you could argue we were not too bothered by Howe but he would be in our backline

not to mention that bottom feeder Scully.  as soon as we have a potential star on our list, the talk starts of where will he go.  its BS

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6 minutes ago, binman said:

Go the biff chooses Great players to compare him to because if you have seen enough football you can see he is likely to become Great too. A fait accompli? Of course not. There is no certainties in life. Ask david schwarz. He was destined to be a great, of that i have no doubt, until injury intervened.

As bif said so well stats are only part of the picture. You just have to watch hogan to know his potential. And you just had to watch both darling and anthony to know neither were ever going to be more than good afl players. There simply is no comparison between hogan and those two.

But this was the point I was making. Bif has used statistics to compare him to a small sample of players, which is selective. I was just pointing out that there are players who have started their careers better than Hogan but have not then kicked on.

I think Hogan could be great, but he will have to improve on his clear weaknesses. His strengths are already very good and there are limits to how much they can improve. (i.e. his endurance, strength, reading the play, marking). In particular, he needs to improve his chasing (which is poor) and his goal kicking (which looks terrible).

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36 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

Your analysis is selective in that it doesn’t also compare Hogan to players who started their career well and plateaued or fizzled out. For instance, Jack Anthony kicked 50 goals in 2009 as a 21-year-old and is no longer in the AFL. Jack Darling kicked 53 and 42 goals in his first two years and has not progressed any further. Jeremy Cameron kicked 62 goals in 2013 and doesn’t look a better player today. Travis Cloke won Collingwood’s best and fairest at 20. Tim Membery kicked 44 goals this year at 22.

 

The point of this post is not that Hogan is an Anthony but that players develop at different rates. Whilst we all hope that Hogan can reach the heights of Carey and Brown, and he is off to a great start, it is not the fait accompli that most on Demonland seem to think it is.

 

 

I can't be bothered checking but I can say with 99% certainty that Jack Darling did NOT kick 53 goals in his first year of footy. From memory I don't reckon he kicked half that.

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1 hour ago, Go the Biff said:

The kid is 20 years old. He has lots to learn but is already good and could well be great. Great – capital G. And he plays for us. There are posters suggesting we should cut any potential losses and trade him now. The type that can’t see the forest for the draft picks. My view is that we should be moving heaven and earth to keep him. If that means making allowances for his current personal circumstances then so be it. But holding a gun to his head and demanding his signature is dumb.

 

Agree with your assessment of Hogan the footballer. He'll be a once in a generation player. But in my view, we've already moved heaven and earth to keep him. For the past year and a bit, the club has been putting out a positive spin on Hogan re-signing, but the deadline from the Hogan camp is constantly shifting.

The club would be aware that it needs to put in place a contingency plan in the event that Hogan decides he'll see out his contract before making a decision. The club realises that that is worst case scenario for the club for 2 reasons:

1. Next year the whole focus on Melbourne from the greater football world will be about will he or want he stay.

2. We can't put out offers during the year for a big fish because a large chuck of our salary cap needs to be tied up into Hogan in the event that he decides to stay. As we know, most players decide that they'll move during the course of the year prior.

So it's not unreasonable to speculate about what would be an acceptable trade for Hogan this year.

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7 minutes ago, Members' Wing said:

I can't be bothered checking but I can say with 99% certainty that Jack Darling did NOT kick 53 goals in his first year of footy. From memory I don't reckon he kicked half that.

Sorry, you are correct. He kicked 24, 53 and 42 in his first three years.

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6 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Agree with your assessment of Hogan the footballer. He'll be a once in a generation player. But in my view, we've already moved heaven and earth to keep him. For the past year and a bit, the club has been putting out a positive spin on Hogan re-signing, but the deadline from the Hogan camp is constantly shifting.

The club would be aware that it needs to put in place a contingency plan in the event that Hogan decides he'll see out his contract before making a decision. The club realises that that is worst case scenario for the club for 2 reasons:

1. Next year the whole focus on Melbourne from the greater football world will be about will he or want he stay.

2. We can't put out offers during the year for a big fish because a large chuck of our salary cap needs to be tied up into Hogan in the event that he decides to stay. As we know, most players decide that they'll move during the course of the year prior.

So it's not unreasonable to speculate about what would be an acceptable trade for Hogan this year.

He will only be a once in a generation if his kicking improves other wise it's Travis Cloke all over again.

 

We can put out big offers, if Hogan stays we just take the offer off the table, players are allowed to change their minds on a whim as are clubs. Would rather start lining someone up and not need them then to get caught out. Obviously the club doesn't want to make a habit of this.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Agree with your assessment of Hogan the footballer. He'll be a once in a generation player. But in my view, we've already moved heaven and earth to keep him. For the past year and a bit, the club has been putting out a positive spin on Hogan re-signing, but the deadline from the Hogan camp is constantly shifting.

The club would be aware that it needs to put in place a contingency plan in the event that Hogan decides he'll see out his contract before making a decision. The club realises that that is worst case scenario for the club for 2 reasons:

1. Next year the whole focus on Melbourne from the greater football world will be about will he or want he stay.

2. We can't put out offers during the year for a big fish because a large chuck of our salary cap needs to be tied up into Hogan in the event that he decides to stay. As we know, most players decide that they'll move during the course of the year prior.

So it's not unreasonable to speculate about what would be an acceptable trade for Hogan this year.

This is such hyperbole. He is playing in the same generation as Ablett Jnr, Buddy Franklin, Fyfe, Dangerfield, Bontempelli, Cameron, Lynch. I don't even think Hogan is the best prospect on our list!

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1 hour ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Barrett is scum... but maybe he rates Weideman, Watts and Hullett.

If the little plick loses on Hogan, he will then start trying on Weideman and Hullett.

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1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Your analysis is selective in that it doesn’t also compare Hogan to players who started their career well and plateaued or fizzled out. For instance, Jack Anthony kicked 50 goals in 2009 as a 21-year-old and is no longer in the AFL. Jack Darling kicked 53 and 42 goals in his first two years and has not progressed any further. Jeremy Cameron kicked 62 goals in 2013 and doesn’t look a better player today. Travis Cloke won Collingwood’s best and fairest at 20. Tim Membery kicked 44 goals this year at 22.

 

The point of this post is not that Hogan is an Anthony but that players develop at different rates. Whilst we all hope that Hogan can reach the heights of Carey and Brown, and he is off to a great start, it is not the fait accompli that most on Demonland seem to think it is.

 

 

Of course it’s selective. So’s yours. And it will remain selective unless I compare him to every key forward that’s played the game. I don’t see the point of comparing him to Royce Hart nor Richard Lounder nor Warren Ralph nor John Butcher so I’ll leave it there.

 

As I said, stats only tell a part of the story. My opinions are formed by watching rather than stats. I remember watching Brown thinking “jeez, this kid could be anything”. I get the same buzz watching Hogan. I see his appetite for a contest. I see his judgement of the ball in flight. I find myself speculating what he would be like in a better forward structure because frankly I think ours is shite – including games we won. I’ll leave Clint Bizkit to carry the banner on that though. With Hogan, as I replied to TGR, I think we are seeing the tip, not the iceberg. But that’s based on what I see. If I’m wrong it’s far from the first time and it won’t be the last. Jesus, I thought Stephen Bickford was going to be a gun and he ended up attending more MFC board meetings than he played games !

To use some of your examples, this is what I saw

Jack Anthony was a one trick pony and everyone quickly worked him out. Everyone except Freo much to Jack’s good fortune and they gave him a nice contract

Travis Cloke was one of the premier power forwards in the game from 2007 to 2013. History tells us that the majority of key forwards begin to decline in their output after their mid 20’s. While he won his sole Copeland in 2007, the likes of Swan & Pendlebury have been sharing it since. Not bad competition. From what I’ve seen I’d reckon Cloke has had an excellent career even if it’s in decline as he approaches 30.

I saw Jeremy Cameron pretty recently. He ripped the heart out of the Swans in a semi final. Not sure what his stats were but I thought he broke the game open. As I recall he had an injury riddled year after the one you mentioned but I still think he’s one of the best forwards currently playing

Membery had an interesting year but I doubt he gets the focus that Bruce & Reiwoldt do. I’ll keep watching.

Darling as I recall played as a third forward rather than a KPF. Still does to my eye. That said he’s still enjoying a fine career. Good player – can be hard to match up on. To me his output diminishes significantly away from Subi but again, that’s just what I see. Stats may prove me wrong

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51 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Agree with your assessment of Hogan the footballer. He'll be a once in a generation player. But in my view, we've already moved heaven and earth to keep him. For the past year and a bit, the club has been putting out a positive spin on Hogan re-signing, but the deadline from the Hogan camp is constantly shifting.

The club would be aware that it needs to put in place a contingency plan in the event that Hogan decides he'll see out his contract before making a decision. The club realises that that is worst case scenario for the club for 2 reasons:

1. Next year the whole focus on Melbourne from the greater football world will be about will he or want he stay.

2. We can't put out offers during the year for a big fish because a large chuck of our salary cap needs to be tied up into Hogan in the event that he decides to stay. As we know, most players decide that they'll move during the course of the year prior.

So it's not unreasonable to speculate about what would be an acceptable trade for Hogan this year.

That's your view and you're entitled to it. Me - I don't know. I don't know what the club has or hasn't done. What they have planned, what they have overlooked.

But I would guess that unless your in the footy department at the MFC, you don't know either

We can all guess whatever we like !

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1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

Your analysis is selective in that it doesn’t also compare Hogan to players who started their career well and plateaued or fizzled out. For instance, Jack Anthony kicked 50 goals in 2009 as a 21-year-old and is no longer in the AFL. Jack Darling kicked 53 and 42 goals in his first two years and has not progressed any further. Jeremy Cameron kicked 62 goals in 2013 and doesn’t look a better player today. Travis Cloke won Collingwood’s best and fairest at 20. Tim Membery kicked 44 goals this year at 22.

 

The point of this post is not that Hogan is an Anthony but that players develop at different rates. Whilst we all hope that Hogan can reach the heights of Carey and Brown, and he is off to a great start, it is not the fait accompli that most on Demonland seem to think it is.

 

 

Anthony, Darling and Membrey are not power forwards.  It's best to compare like with like.  They can't do what Hogan can do.  Did they take 90 contested marks in their first 2 years ?  In any 2 years ?  If you're not a true power forward there's definitely more of a chance you'll get shut down, which is why they're a poor comparison.

Cloke has had a very good career.  He's a poor example, unless you have a poor memory of his prime years when he was very very good.

Cameron is a gun, but a different player to Hogan.  He rarely ventures out of his forward 50 and has an uncanny knack of manufacturing goals.  Even on his poor days where he only touches it 6 times he'll find a way to kick 3 or 4 goals.

He and Cloke are the only two worth comparing and both are/were exceptional players. 

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2 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

2 draft picks under 8 would get us Peter Wright. 

GCS can start their rebuild again, this time maybe go after more competitive types.

Peter Wright should not be mentioned in the same sentence as Hogan and therefore 2 first rd picks is that far over 

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1 hour ago, DominatrixTyson said:

Why bring up Carey, he'd have been far less effective in todays game with zone defences. Still a wonderful player, but not the match winner that single handedly wins premierships. A solid 60-80 a year goalkicker is very valuable, but still equal to an elite A grade midfielder, not superior.

This guy...

Carey was a CHF.  How many CHF's in history regularly kick 60-80 goals ?

Carey was a freak then and would be the best player in the game now.  And more valuable than any mid.

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