Fat Tony

My key takeaways: The only time we looked vulnerable was at centre clearance. Petracca just sublime. Our pace and ability to explode away from stoppages was much better than Carlton. It looked like we pushed another number to the stoppage this week (usually Salem) at times.

We should have won 76-38 on expected score.

There might be some I am over on, but Oliver, Petracca, Gawn and Lever could be on more than my estimate. The real point is that we are unlikely to be able to be big players in free agency, as the future owed number is so big. I wonder if we would be winners if the salary cap went up significantly, or would the contracts be amended upwards?

Agree with a lot of that, but there is no rush IMO because neither player was at risk of being poached. What if Verrell injures his hip again this year? Or Sestan gets hurt? As a general rule, it is better to wait until later.

Interesting decision to re-sign this duo so early in the season. I would prefer to wait to the end of the year but it shows we think the talent and work ethic is there which is a good sign.

I think the game plan is still in reasonable shape. If anything, I think the last two weeks have shown why Petty needs to be played forward and we need Gawn to get back in form. We should be dominating the air with our cattle and our game fell down at times on Saturday because we dropped too many contested marks.

I have put together an estimate of the current MFC salary cap position. As player salaries are not public, I have made best estimates on what each player contract value is. (I know the dollars will not be correct for specific players and I am not going to argue with anyone about these amounts, but it is the total amount and conclusion that matters.) My conclusion is that we are almost certainly, in effect, running above the salary cap this season and probably will be effectively running above the cap next season. This is permitted (so I am not saying we are likely to get in trouble here) and would be achieved by backloading some of our bigger contracts into future years. For this reason, and because we will still want to retain Chandler and D Turner (and probably Jordon and Woewodin) and because we will need to fill our list spots, I cannot see us being a big player in the trade or free agent markets this year. We may also look to offload some players, including Harmes, TMac, Brown or Tomlinson to free up salary over the next trade period, albeit I am not sure we will be able to do this easily without paying a portion of their remaining salaries. At the moment we have 6 uncontracted players on the senior list, which will need to be filled by draftees, current players or players on other AFL lists. I don’t believe there has been clarity on the level salary cap beyond next year, but I think we can assume it will go up by around 10%. Player Contract 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Oliver 2030 $900K $900K $900K $900K $900K $900K $900K $900K Petracca 2029 $900K $900K $900K $900K $900K $900K $900K n/a May 2025 $800K $800K $800K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Gawn 2025 $800K $800K $800K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Brayshaw 2028 $700K $700K $700K $700K $700K $700K n/a n/a Grundy 2027 $700K $700K $700K $700K $700K n/a n/a n/a Fritsch 2026 $700K $700K $700K $700K n/a n/a n/a n/a Viney 2025 $700K $700K $700K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Salem 2026 $650K $650K $650K $650K n/a n/a n/a n/a Lever 2024 $650K $650K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Brown 2024 $600K $600K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Neal Bullen 2026 $500K $500K $500K $500K n/a n/a n/a n/a Langdon 2024 $500K $500K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Harmes 2024 $500K $500K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Spargo 2025 $400K $400K $400K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Petty 2025 $400K $400K $400K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Tomlinson 2024 $400K $400K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Sparrow 2024 $400K $400K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a McDonald 2024 $400K $400K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Hunter 2024 $400K $400K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Pickett 2027 $350K $700K $700K $700K $700K n/a n/a n/a Rivers 2027 $350K $450K $450K $450K $450K n/a n/a n/a Bowey 2024 $350K $350K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Van Rooyen 2025 $220K $400K $400K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a McVee 2024 $200K $350K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a J Smith 2024 $200K $200K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Schache 2024 $200K $200K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Jordan 2023 $200K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Howes 2025 $150K $300K $300K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Laurie 2024 $150K $200K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Melksham 2023 $150K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Hibberd 2023 $150K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Dunstan 2023 $150K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Chandler 2023 $150K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Woewodin 2023 $120K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Jefferson 2024 $100K $120K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Adams 2024 $100K $120K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Karris-White 2023 $80K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a AMW 2023 $80K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Verrall 2023 $80K $100K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a K Turner 2023 $80K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a D Turner 2023 $80K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a D Smith 2023 $80K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Sestan 2023 $80K $100K n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Total Salary $15,850K $15,590K $10,000K $6,200K $4,350K $2,500K $1,800K $900K Salary Cap $14,700K Difference $1,150K Future Owed $42,490K

I reckon our salary cap is already chockers.

My mail (which is a good source) says it will be 4 weeks.

The tactics at centre clearance needed more surge and less finesse. And Petracca was played too little in the middle in the first half given the conditions.

That still means that one of Rivers or Brayshaw plays midfield if we play 7 defenders.

I like Turner and agree he needs more games at AFL level to develop. He could be in our best side come September and he would provide more flexibility. The reason he isn't playing is because we have a lot of very good half backs (Rivers, Salem, Bowey, Brayshaw, Hibberd, McVee) who give us a lot of skill and rebound. But I don't think you can put Lever's form solely on being forced to play taller. And maybe Rivers and Hibberd have been playing better because they are in more intercepting roles?

On the positive side, Salem had a very good return.