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Everything posted by binman

  1. One of the stranger narratives all year from footy media types when talking about our games against other contenders is how we are going to deal with their strengths. It is always acknowledged how great our defensive system is, and of course the individual skill of Gawn, Tracc and Oliver is highlighted. But it's almost as if they think our incredibly effective midfield and forward line systems are second rate compared to other contenders. Pre round 11 it was all about how we are going to deal with the devastating midfield and clearance game of the dogs. How will we combat the four headed forward line monster of (insert one of the Lions, Cats and Dogs here)? Goody must love the fact that our forward line is hardly ever talked about as a threat that needs to be quelled. In the six games we have won since the loss to the dogs in round 19 we have averaged 100.5 points per game. That is padded a bit by the fact we toweled up the Suns and the Crows. But three were against top 4 teams - Cats x 2 and the Lions In the seven games the dogs have played in that same period they have averaged 81.5 points per game. We are far away the most potent team in the AFL in the last two months of football, but yet we have to worry about Naughton? Go figure.
  2. Great get Kiran. I'll make sure to listen He was a gun player, our bets, and I was spewing when he left for the Swans. I have never really forgiven him for abandoning us.
  3. Interesting. Curious that it wasn't noted that both Bruce and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan played in that game. Petty was one on one on Bruce for the whole game. Without Bruce in the team, as bingers noted (and Webber too in another thread), we have the option of playing Petty on Naughton. Or we could go with what Monatgna suggested we ended up doing anyway - letting them have the match up. There are a couple of other points i'd put to Joey if i had the chance. One, Monatgna reckons that ring a rosie stuff happened all game. I don't think that is true. I'm sure May had Naughton for large chunks of the game. Two, I know Monatgna's point was that they were trying to engineer a Lever Naughton match up (and i guess May being exposed on the quicker Hannan). But Lever ended up with 15 intercept possessions and it seems to me Goody would be pretty happy with that that. Hardly an example of quelling Lever's influence. And Naughton only had three marks and 2 goals, albeit it in slippery conditions, and Hannan the one goal so hardly a raging tactical success.
  4. I didn't say I didn't feel for them, particularly the younger players. Standing up for what is right and pushing back on what is evidently and clearly wrong can be hard, particularly in an ultra alpha environment that controls everything and pushing back is not encouraged. And everyone makes mistakes, particularly when you are young. Lord knows i have But the difficulty of doing the right thing does not absolve you for failing to do so. And it certainly does not make you a victim On trust, sure the club abused the players trust. But perhaps a greater breach of trust was the complete failure of the senior players to show any leadership and courage to protect their teammates, particularly the younger players. The MFC has indeed built it's success on trust. But not one way trust - club to players. The players trust each other. Jake Bowey and his young teammates no doubt trust Gawn and the senior players. I would like to think that our senior players would have the courage of their convictions and would stand up to the club if it were trying to force the players to do something that crossed ethical and moral boundaries. Like cheating. And why on earth would you say the the Essendon fans are not victims? They are the only victims.
  5. Yep, agree on both points. It's funny there hasn't been more talk about the impact of Bruce not being in their side. Even though he has played 20 games to Naughton's 24 he still leads their goal kicking tally with 48 goals, with Naughton on 46 goals. And structurally Bruce was super important. And not just because he was another tall. Naughton is still a run and jump player. But Bruce is strong and played an important role creating opportunities for Naughton by wrestling with defenders. No Bruce means we have more flexibility in how we structure up down back.
  6. I haven't watched 360 from last night yet, but will. Funnily enough I was thinking about how they might counter efforts to negate Lever. One thought I had was play him on naughton at times. I watched the first half of round 11 again last night and Lever was a direct match up on Bruce at times.He is better one on one than he was. Stronger. But naughton probably starts him too deep, so running him one on one against English would mean he starts higher. And would have the benefit or breaking any tag from Schache. He can still zone off from English and but petty would be free to play the more aggressive intercept role.
  7. And it was fun watching their 'forward line to die for' in action too.
  8. Not sure how I feel about hibbo's comments about his ex teammates. Ill advised and poorly timed comes to mind. But I feel really strongly about the narrative those players were the real victims. FMD those knuckle heads were not victims. And certainly not the 'real victims'. Weak. Naïve. Poorly advised. Sheep like. Sure. Victims. No. They chose their path. They are completely complicit and should have been more harshly penalised. They were all consenting adults, who at the very least must have known they were being asked to cheat given the secrecy of the program. Some of that group who chose to have hundreds of injections of god knows what cocktail of experimental drugs will no doubt refuse to be vaccinated. The only victims in that sad affair are their fans.
  9. Perth 28-Day Rainfall Forecast Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 16 High 17 High 18 High 19 Low 20 21 22 23 24 25 Low chance of a dog's win 26 27 28 29 30 Oct 1 2 Low 3 Low 4 Low 5 Low 6 Low 7 Med 8 High 9 Low 10 11 12 13 Low 14
  10. Caro, who i have a lot of time for, is just creating non story here. Which is ok. The club has said its not curfew. She said as much. it is an expectation. A reasonable one at that. So to call it a curfew becuase 'the players' (implying the playing group) have called it a curfew is a classic beat up. What 'players' have said it is a curfew? Maybe one or two in interviews, but c'mon. And what nonsense from Lyon. I'll bet London to a brick the Saints team he coached to a premiership appearance had all sorts of rules they had to follow. Or maybe they didn't, an as result some players prepared poorly and that is a reason they failed to win the GF or the GF replay.
  11. Totally. I used to watch every episode of FC, never missed it. Stopped early last season because it is just rubbish now. So i don't know if it was discussed it in more detail than the 3 minute twitter clip. But they seemed to completely ignore the point Lloyd was trying to make about the fact they have been in Perth for a few weeks now and will have developed well established routines. It makes perfect sense to keep following those routines given how successful they have been. Its what they would have done even at home in Melbourne - ie in the next two weeks fellas we want you to get 8 hours sleep, bed early, up early etc etc. And fellas for god's sake avoid night clubs
  12. Ta. i will listen on catch up radio. But i will do so when i can be relaxed becuase King will absolutely do my head in. Jennings is not too bad, but there is something about the way he talks about the game that really annoys me too. So no doubt i'll be annoyed. Perhaps i'm just a grumpy old bastard Prediction about things that will annoy me: reading too much into round 19 not considering loading being a factor in that game not considering that goody trialed stuff in round 19 - he wont be experimenting in the GF pointing our the fact that Mcrae, Bont and Daniels knocked up getting possessions, saying we will lose if that occurs again (thanks Captains Obvious) not considering why we didn't put any defensive work into those 3 players (eg keeping our powder dry, not showing our tactical hand, messing with bevo etc) not pointing out the fact Bowey came into the side the next game and why we might have made that call not pointing out we have been unbeaten since that game reading too little into round 11 (it's so long ago, no relevant any more, this a new season etc etc) David King Jenning's use of metaphors and themes Jenning's taking every opportunity to highlight the various teams and coaches he coaches and/or advises
  13. That match up hs a lot of merit. Defensively harmes has the discipline to wear him like a glove. And as you say AF, harmes can exploit him offensively and drag smith out of his comfort zone. The other benefit is harmes would physically monster Smith, which I suspect would really mess with Smith mentally. Also Iots of players struggle being tagged, particularly when they are not used to it. And I don't think smith has been tagged much, if at all, this season. Or ever. That match up would probably mean viney goes head to head with libba, which would be brilliant to watch. And as good as libba is, I'd back Jack to take tbe honours. Will be intersting to see how they look to negate Daniel's influence, which I'm sure they will. Though I doubt they will run a hard tag on him. I suspect they will use similar tactics to those used to negate rich x 2 and Tuhoy, which involved having a focus on applying pressure on every possession, so they had no time, and making sure they had no space ahead of them to run into. They didn't tag them, but kozzie was important with his pace and all forwards were focused on getting accross to them. And mids, defenders and wingers worked hard to push up and deny them space to run and carry into. And of course the other piece of the puzzle is shutting down options for Daniels to kick too. But that is part of defensive DNA as Geelong discovered so brutally. The cats could not buy an uncontested mark. And nor will the dogs. Daniels is obviously a big part of the way the dogs transitionthe ball and create scoring opportunities. But he is also key to their defensive system. Setting up uncontested marks is one of Daniel's biggest weapons as it allows the dogs to get out of jail when under siege by maintaining possession and control. Minimising his ability to do so goes a long way to minimising his impact. I think it is very instructive we didn't look to negate Daniels at all in rbe round 19 game. We basically let him run free. No chance we do so again.
  14. binman's 11 point week one plan to prepare for the 2021 Grand Final: Watch our round 19 game against the dogs Watch some random quarters from various game through the season Listen to various radio spots Watch various TV shows Watch any and all video the club's puts up on its website Read Demonland Post on Demonland Wonder where Dr d and osilik have got to Try to avoid my head exploding as result of listening to too much David King (i mean David, please, stop flip flopping and making random assessments based on whatever snippet of data your mate at Champion Data feeds you) Watch the fits game against the dogs on Saturday night (to mirror the club's practice march routine - a good solid hit out a week before the GF. I will try and forget the result of that game to maximize verisimilitude ) Watch Clarry win the Brownlow
  15. As we know, the club had practice match a week before the prelim to get prepared for the game and mitigate the impact of a two week break. Going by the footage and photos the club posted, and piecing together various snippets from club interviews, the session seemed to involve 2 twenty minute high intensity quarters with umpires. I heard Nibbler say they went in pretty hard. That was followed by a combination of running drills, ball use drills and tackling drills. I presume these were in large part about making sure the full session (ie practice match and drills) approximated the total loading, intensity, physical impact and mental arousal of game. The club has said they plan to repeat this exercise, which makes a lot of sense. I presume it will be this Saturday. That session will be no doubt be a major factor in their selection decisions, so it will be an awesome session to watch. I wonder if it might open to the public? Unlikely you'd think, but if it is it would be great for some WA demonlanders to get down there and file a report to give those of us in Vic a feel for things over there.
  16. I hope for his sake he does not punt on footy
  17. In any previous season I would have been accused of being a happy clapper who accepts mediocrity and is part of the reason why the demons will never be successful. .
  18. Perth 28-Day Rainfall Forecast Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 14 15 High 16 High 17 Low 18 High 19 Low 20 21 22 23 24 Med 25 Dees win 26 27 28 29 30 Oct 1 2 3 Low 4 5 Low 6 7 Low 8 Med 9 10 11 12 Low CHANCE OF RAINFALL WITHIN DISTRICT Nil < 25% Low 25 - 50% Medium 50 - 75% High ≥ 75%
  19. I 100% agree the round 19 game is of limited value as a form reference. But King is just as likely to laud the genius of the Bont next week and change his tune and make it a 'genuine 50 50 game". For what it's worth i reckon the current odds (dees $1.64 to win) are about right. And i reckon our 7 point line is excellent value.
  20. Ta. Grammatically, it a funny turn of phrase to say the Demons 'insist they have a plan to be mentally and physically ready' (a line Tim Watson repeats word for word in the clip) Insist? Is someone challenging them on their plan to be mentally and physically ready, or suggesting they don't have one? I wonder if the dogs will also 'insist' they have a plan to be ready.
  21. I'm not disagreeing with the point he is making about the round 19 game, but fair dinkum, David King is all over the shop. He swings more than marriages in the1970's. He gets a direct mainline of champion data stats and whatever he bangs on about is directly related to what he has read before he comes on air. In that same slot last week, or perhaps on First crack (he just repeats his talking points on that show the following day on SEN) he said the Cats v Dees PF was 'a genuine 50 50 game'. A 50 - 50 game? Please. What load of nonsense. And this is not hindsight. The bookies had us at $1.50 to win that game, not even money. And before anyone says the dogs win show that punting odds are meaningless $1.50 still gives the other team at 30 odd percent chance of winning. Of course the odds not absolute. But they are very good measure of probability (i think the most reliable measure), particularly when pools are as big as they were for the PF, because there is real investment, most of which by professional punters who back their expertise with real money, not glib opinions. Part of his rationale for the PF being a flip of the coin game was how close the round 23 game was and the fact thta the cats jumped out to a big lead. Which is just ridiculous. Why? Because in that game I'm pretty sure the Champion data 'expected score' had us wining by 4-5 goals. From memory Goody even referenced it in his post match presser. So this week the 'expected score' is relevant for his assessment of the outcome of the GF, but wasn't for the PF? And as goody also noted the stats at half time all looked how we like them to look, with the exception of the scores from centre clearances (an outlier as goody noted - which by the by is an interesting parallel to the Round 19 inside 50 stoppage goals as Goody noted that stat was an outlier too in his post match presser) and the goals we gave up in the second quarter. King, and many others, completely misread that game from a form perspective. Way too much weight was put on their 44 point lead and nowhere enough on the fact they could only manage 2 goals (and only 5 scoring shots?) in the second half of a must win game. Or the fact that their leaders - Hawkins, Selwood and Dangerfield went missing in that last quarter. Or for that matter the utter toweling Max gave Stanley, another leader, in the last quarter. All of those factors pointed to the probability of what would happen in the PF - and ultimately did happen. And those factors are why the weight of money had us at $1.50 to win that game. And King, a fella employed by Fox to do expert analysis, missed EVERY SINGLE one of them.
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