Fat Tony

Our system works well in dry weather and some of our problems in the wet are due to the slippery ball not favouring some key personnel, like Max, May and Lever. The system is good for dry weather because it automatically adjusts to how the opposition want to play. But wet weather is different. Every team plays the same style in the wet. That said, we need to particularly look at the method at stoppages in the wet. Having a loose man behind the play is less value in the wet. I don't accept that we cannot alter this from game to game or even mid game. We have enough experienced players to adjust.

Goodwin needs to alter out method for wet weather. More surge forward and less handball in the stoppages would be a good change, particularly early on in the game when the heat is on. And there should be no loose players forward of the stoppages. The connection between Max and the midfield was poor last night, especially in the centre bounces. The move of Petracca to the forward line was a big success, but I think Fritsch will give us just as much as the deepest forward in dry conditions. I would like to see Rivers used in the midfield. We need some more size and power in there.

That’s our final loss for the year I reckon.

We look strong all over the ground. I think we just need to do well enough in the centre bounces and kick straight. May and Lever are the best in the comp at their roles and TMac is playing like an A-Grader this season. McVee, Rivers and Bowey are very good players and know their roles in our defensive system. The forward line looks very well balanced at the moment, with three mobile talls, Fritsch and Kossie. We will get enough shots at goal if we can get the ball inside 50. We aren't going to get opened up and beaten on turnover once the ball gets in motion, but they could beat us if they get on top of Max and the midfield at clearance. Another big game from our four big guns and Sparrow is the key.

Definitely no coincidence. My point was about his development. At AFL level he would need to be able to compete in 2v2 and 1v2 (outnumbered) contests and he needs to prove he can play alongside other big forwards. He is not going to take Fritsch's role in the AFL any time soon.

Jefferson is not going to be our main forward target if he ever gets to play for AFL. He needs to learn to work alongside multiple key forwards in the air, because there are not that many one on one aerial contests inside 50 at AFL level and those entries usually go to Fritsch for Melbourne. (Petty, JVR and Turner only get targeted one on one about five times each per match and that's all over the ground.) The main issue with the other big forwards at Casey is that they are all hopeless pressure players.

We definitely looked tired against the Crows off a 5-day break. I would make some changes, even if we look a worse team on paper. While no one deserves to be dropped, Hunter, Bowey and Laurie would all be options to inject some run. Woewodin played a decent game at half back but Bowey will give us a lot more rebound. If we win this we go two games and percentage above Carlton, which is a big gap, so this is a massive game from a top 4 perspective.

I think we made an error against the Crows, particularly with Ben Brown.

Hunter would be a possibility given the short break.

I know the VFL fixture has been talked about at length, but it really is outrageous that this game is on Sunday when Melbourne play next Thursday night. The way the VFL is run is hopeless.

The Higgins tackle is why I think the AFL will need to consider allowing throwing in our game. To ask players to let go of the tackle is unrealistic. And Aliir was not going to drop the ball and get a free against. Neither party was really at fault and the suspension will do nothing to help prevent the incident occurring again.

The Kangas are in massive trouble. Free agency, the ineffectiveness of the draft and fixture inequities all make it very hard for small/poor clubs to rebuild from rock bottom. The removal of priority picks and the northern academies also work against the bottom clubs. The AFL also needs less teams. It makes money from fans watching every game. And even the most avid football watcher is only able to pay attention for max 7 games per week . The Kangas games are always the last on the list to watch and are negative value. I can see a shot gun marriage between the Suns or Giants and Kangas at some point in the next decade.

Both these team have been extremely efficient in front of goal this season. This gained us one extra victory vs expected score against Port and the Cats lost three times on expected score against Carlton (marginally), WB and Adelaide and only just beat Hawthorn. They are not that as good as their undefeated record suggests. That said, Chris Scott is a master tactician and has a lot of flexibility in his squad. Stewart, Blicavs and Cameron are particularly hard to plan against, so it will be interesting if we alter our defensive strategy to have someone follow Cameron up the field and how we organise at stoppages if Blicavs goes to Petracca. In addition to Steward, De Koning is also someone we will try to avoid when we go forward. Our best chance to win is a monster game from Max and the centre bounces going our way.

Draw was a bad outcome. Our percentage is well above both Essendon and Collingwood.

Can’t believe Rivers did not make the best players.

Windsor has regressed a bit the last two games. (Not suggesting he be dropped.) And disagree a bit on Hunter. While he doesn’t have the penetration of Windsor, he makes marginally better decisions and is still a reasonable kick. Having a left sided winger is another advantage.

I think Hunter comes in for Woewodin. Windsor goes back and Hunter on the wing. Petty will get better at marking and goal kicking and we need to back him in.

Jefferson’s intensity is pathetic. No defensive focus in his game and zero ground game. He won’t make it.

Fullarton isn’t strong enough or quick enough IMO.

Overall, we lack depth and have very little in reserve. Hore is not a good enough kick for AFL. Fullarton played a good game and got a lot of the ball but there is nothing in his game that screams AFL. He is not a strong enough forward to play against AFL defenders and not big enough for the ruck. Jefferson takes a decent mark when he gets a jump at it, but so incredibly poor in his second efforts that he will never be an AFL player. He is a dumb footballer in terms of positioning and does not work hard enough in defence. Sestan has some elite traits and is improving with his better endurance. Still 2025 project at best due to his running capacity. Kynan Brown has AFL level intensity but is too small this year. McAdam is clearly AFL standard but not fit enough yet. Tholstrop did little to get excited about. AMW has some good traits but not sure he has enough to make it.

Ben Brown would face the double drop to the VFL reserves on this performance (if it still existed). He has played like a bag of potatoes.

Casey have been very poor in terms of their defensive structure, letting several goals over the back. Hore is a bit dopey. McAdam looks a very good forward and obviously AFL level talent. Jefferson is too slow in both body and mind to play AFL. Seston looks like a good VFL player now with a high level of balance and skill. I am not sure he will ever get the fitness to play AFL but there is a lot to like. Fullerton has picked up a lot of possessions but does not scream AFL talent. Brown has done little. Hunter is still good enough.

Sestan post high from 60m!

All three AFL emergencies (Brown, Tholstrop and Hore) are playing VFL.