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PREGAME: QF vs Collingwood


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51 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

I don’t know Jeremy personally - he may be a top notch fellow - but gee he does a jolly good job in making himself sound like an absolute dill. 

Notice the elephant in the room studiously avoided.

"So jeremy, how did it feel when your ex-teammates won the GF of the century"

Don't tell me it doesn't sting. 

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2 hours ago, beelzebub said:

So much MFCSS creeping in....

Get a grip fellow Dees.  Whether delusion or an epiphany it strikes me we have been a little cagey all year.

Im no expert on horse training...though somehow im a collaborative part owner of a number lol.... but one thing you don't do is throw all your effort at the leadup races.

You set yourself for the big one(s).

We've been caught napping at times...and weve flicked the switch when had.

Imho the FD have /are playing two seasons...the  h/a..   and finals.

H/A ..get into finals..get there as intact as possible ...get into a box seat.

Finals...bring the A game. First bounce....flick switch.

I'm quite confident....so much my Collingwood wife wont watch the game with me ....lol.....

The wobbly barbs from filth relatives and friends are being return of served straight back past them.

They're nervous... and so is McRae.

They would want to be.

Yes... would be great to have Milky...or Petty......  they can play Daicos...i don't care. This is finals...they're  not winning this... they don't know how.  We DO !!

Bring it

Love your optimism,  We are as good as anyside in this finals race, Now I think whoever wins Thursday will win the last one.  So its all out there as I see it.  No holding back. And I think we have been hiding our ability a bit.

While I do not like the wet weather, we have time to prepare for it and the Colliwobbles have to play it it as well. So their  plans are stuffed.  just as much as ours might be,  Go Dees onto the flag..

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1 hour ago, bandicoot said:

We are not a stoppage and contest team… we are a turnover team. That’s how we win. The rain makes it more difficult to win a turnover especially when your 2 biggest weapons in may and lever are ineffective.

Add to that that we are a poor disposal team even in the dry and you have an answer to why we lose games in the wet.  

We are a turnover team, that is true.

But since when are we not a stoppage and contest team?

For the season we are number:

  • one in the AFL for average contested possessions (pies are 14th)
  • eight for average center clearances per game (pies are 10th)
  • seventh for stoppage clearances (pies are 11th)

Those are our season numbers, and I'm pretty sure i read somewhere that we are top 2 or 3 for centre and stoppage clearances in our last 6 games, and the Pies are near the bottom of the table in both areas in the same time frame. 

The train hurts us becuase it negates the impact of our most impactful player - maxy. And i agree that our disposal is an issue and the wet exacerbates that issue.

But i would argue the wet hurts the Pies way more than it does us.

Their whole game plan is built around chaining out from contests to an outside receiver and that player executing of high risk, difficult kicks. And wet weather really impacts that model as every handball and kick is at risk of getting messed up and creating turnovers as a result.   

Conversely our game plan is built around getting territory, dominating time in forward half, winning inside 50 count and keeping it trapped in our front half. In other words the foundation of how to play wet weather football

And wet weather means more contests and more ground balls. As evidenced by the contested possession numbers (#1 v #14) we will smash them in the contest, and as these stats suggest smash them when the ball hits the ground inside the defensive and offensive 50s:

  • Dees are second for ground ball gets (pies are 15th)
  • Dees are second for tackles inside 50 (pies are 16th)

The blues dees game was the classic wet weather game. And the most intense, brutal game i can recall for a very long time. That's how we will play on Thursday night.

Good luck to the Pies chaining up their little slick handballs trying to feed it out to a receiver or hit a target in the corridor in the wet under the sort of pressure we applied against the blues.

The Pies won't know what hit them. 

Stats by whello:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?year=2023

Edited by binman
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2 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Would love to see a banner that read ...

WE'RE DEMONS, YOUR WORST NIGHTMARE. 

WE COME FROM HELL AND WE'RE TAKING YOU THERE !!!

Yeah nah, can’t see the Club signing off on that. Waaaay too inflammatory for the delicate sensibilities of your average Dees supporter. “Be afraid, be very afraid”  (last week’s banner) is about as menacing as we’d get. Cut to 8pm tonight and I’m posting sneak peeks of this week’s banner which says “And You Will Know Us By The Trail Of Dead” 🤣

*That’s the name of a band so there’d be copyright issues, for one. 

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Many i feel are overcomplicating the nature of Thursday's game.  All the stats  remind me of stock charting...wonderful in reviewing but can NOT predict sfa ( imo ) as games can and often do create their own dynamics. 

It's a bit like worrying..    you can only affect that which you can by how you can.

In reality all Melbourne needs to do is:

Play 100% from the first bounce

Play hard unforgiving football.

Want the footy more than them.

Defend like there's no tomorrow. 

Pressure Pressure Pressure.

Beat them first in their minds. The rest follows.

When they're rattled....they wobble....we know this 😉

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7 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Yeah nah, can’t see the Club signing off on that. Waaaay too inflammatory for the delicate sensibilities of your average Dees supporter. “Be afraid, be very afraid”  (last week’s banner) is about as menacing as we’d get. Cut to 8pm tonight and I’m posting sneak peeks of this week’s banner which says “And You Will Know Us By The Trail Of Dead” 🤣

*That’s the name of a band so there’d be copyright issues, for one. 

Disappointing.  

We are DEMONS ..   not Fuschias

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18 hours ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Jeremy Howe got a little bit to say. Tomorrows Hun

Even Jeremy Howe knew Brodie Grundy as a forward wasn't going to work. 👀

So funny.

everyone at mfc and demonland knew howe going to collingwood as a forward wasn't going to work (except howe and collingwood of course)

people in glass houses ffs

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1 minute ago, daisycutter said:

So funny.

everyone at mfc and demonland knew howe going to collingwood as a forward wasn't going to work (except howe and collingwood of course)

people in glass houses ffs

But don't you love all the talk about McRea's great coaching moving to the forward line. 

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25 minutes ago, binman said:

We are a turnover team, that is true.

...

The train hurts us becuase it negates the impact of our most impactful player - maxy. And i agree that our disposal is an issue and the wet exacerbates that issue.

But i would argue the wet hurts the Pies way more than it does us.

Their whole game plan is built around chaining out from contests to an outside receiver and that player executing of high risk, difficult kicks. And wet weather really impacts that model as every handball and kick is at risk of getting messed up and creating turnovers as a result.   

Conversely our game plan is built around getting territory, dominating time in forward half, winning inside 50 count and keeping it trapped in our front half. In other words the foundation of how to play wet weather football

And wet weather means more contests and more ground balls. As evidenced by the contested possession numbers (#1 v #14) we will smash them in the contest, and as these stats suggest smash them when the ball hits the ground inside the defensive and offensive 50s:

  • Dees are second for ground ball gets (pies are 15th)
  • Dees are second for tackles inside 50 (pies are 16th)

The blues dees game was the classic wet weather game. And the most intense, brutal game i can recall for a very long time. That's how we will play on Thursday night.

Good luck to the Pies chaining up their little slick handballs trying to feed it out to a receiver or hit a target in the corridor in the wet under the sort of pressure we applied against the blues.

The Pies won't know what hit them. 

Stats by whello:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?year=2023

As long as we train as we play, we should be OK.

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2 hours ago, kev martin said:

Colly's have been picking and choosing when to play most of the season.

Finals have to be for the 4 quarters. We will push the entire time. Will the Colly's be able to sustain a full game when having to work hard? If we stop or neutralise a few of their take it through corridors and angle changes, we will get them. As their high energy exertion moments, are not sustainable. I think they have a power game, and aren't going to do the bread and butter. If they give us the momentum I believe we will run away with it. A comeback is unlikely for them as we will half expect it (given their history this season). 

We are flying under the radar at the moment.

I imagine the players are focused to get this first one under the belt.

Clarry has to work through the tags, which he did last year.

Our wingers are smart and won't give the Pies an easy out.

Our contest will give them little ball use, we get the ball first, problem could be not getting the ball to the outside, where the Pies will be lurking.

Cause turnovers, get intercepts, be smart with ball and don't give it back to them.

Go Dees!

A surprising number of times they have been behind at 3/4 time. They really put pressure on their last quarter bursts. May not work with the Dees.

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33 minutes ago, binman said:

We are a turnover team, that is true.

But since when are we not a stoppage and contest team?

For the season we are number:

  • one in the AFL for average contested possessions (pies are 14th)
  • eight for average center clearances per game (pies are 10th)
  • seventh for stoppage clearances (pies are 11th)

Those are our season numbers, and I'm pretty sure i read somewhere that we are top 2 or 3 for centre and stoppage clearances in our last 6 games, and the Pies are near the bottom of the table in both areas in the same time frame. 

The train hurts us becuase it negates the impact of our most impactful player - maxy. And i agree that our disposal is an issue and the wet exacerbates that issue.

But i would argue the wet hurts the Pies way more than it does us.

Their whole game plan is built around chaining out from contests to an outside receiver and that player executing of high risk, difficult kicks. And wet weather really impacts that model as every handball and kick is at risk of getting messed up and creating turnovers as a result.   

Conversely our game plan is built around getting territory, dominating time in forward half, winning inside 50 count and keeping it trapped in our front half. In other words the foundation of how to play wet weather football

And wet weather means more contests and more ground balls. As evidenced by the contested possession numbers (#1 v #14) we will smash them in the contest, and as these stats suggest smash them when the ball hits the ground inside the defensive and offensive 50s:

  • Dees are second for ground ball gets (pies are 15th)
  • Dees are second for tackles inside 50 (pies are 16th)

The blues dees game was the classic wet weather game. And the most intense, brutal game i can recall for a very long time. That's how we will play on Thursday night.

Good luck to the Pies chaining up their little slick handballs trying to feed it out to a receiver or hit a target in the corridor in the wet under the sort of pressure we applied against the blues.

The Pies won't know what hit them. 

Stats by whello:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?year=2023

Good analysis on Collingwood. They have also been used to playing cox and Cameron and this will hurt them.

Your analysis has somewhat calmed my pre game anxiousness 

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3 hours ago, TheWiz said:

They’re ranked 16th & 17th for contested and ground ball gets, respectively. So on one hand the wet might stop their quick movement and best strength (scoring from their defensive 50), but on the other hand it might bring down the quality of our own contested footy and equalise things.

I think our biggest advantage in the wet is that they will have to play Cameron and Cox. They’ve flirted through the back end of the season with just Cameron and subbed out Cox, but neither are up to a solo ruck contest against Gawn.

This. Neither of them can take on Gawn on his own. And if it does rain having one in the forward line means one of their smalls is on the bench. It looms as a big decision for Fly. In the end, i think he'll go with Cameron alone and count on his midfield to nullify our tap advantage. Cameron is no easy beat mind you. 

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17 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

This. Neither of them can take on Gawn on his own. And if it does rain having one in the forward line means one of their smalls is on the bench. It looms as a big decision for Fly. In the end, i think he'll go with Cameron alone and count on his midfield to nullify our tap advantage. Cameron is no easy beat mind you. 

Good note re the small forwards. This will shape up as one of the all time selection decisions for both clubs!

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28 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

A surprising number of times they have been behind at 3/4 time. They really put pressure on their last quarter bursts. May not work with the Dees.

and May will not let it work ..  😏

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35 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Weather forecast on my app has changed again. Rain expected to stop by 6pm 🤷‍♀️

Its going to be a long 3 days 

Weather app has gone up to 2-8mm (Friday is just as bad). My only hope is that because the forecast is saying most likely in the afternoon and evening it pushes back to late in the night. More often than not, the rains comes later not earlier.

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Dear Demonlanders,

One of my favourite styles of posts to read, is when posters tell other posters what the players need to do to win the game, as if they

a) think other posters don't know this; or

b) think the athletes and the FD don't know this , and thus, if they don't play in such a manner - retrospectively assume it was due to a lack of planning.

I look forward to more of these in the forthcoming days

Sincerely

EO.

 

Edited by Engorged Onion
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2 hours ago, SPC said:

Am I missing something?…. We are a contest, stoppage team who are strong big bodied bulls. Collingwood are the Harlem Globetrotters of the lower class society, why are we fearing the wet!!??

Sure we lost some games in the wet, but we had a tall forwardline and we’re playing poor footy at the time. One word… Oliver!!!

How many games have the Globetrotters lost,  345 games out of 27,000 games might not want to use that analogy....lol

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42 minutes ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Toby Bedford did not get off. Something very wrong with the game at the moment. Tobys fault he should have gone for the eyes. 

Or actually knocked out Ah Chee, with a bump to the head, making him miss the finals.

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