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PREGAME: QF vs Collingwood


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55 minutes ago, picket fence said:

Two Ruckmen on a wet night would be madness!

Going to be a huge call. I think TMac has to play Melksham's role. Athletically, i don't think they are too different from each other. Both strong and not super mobile. TMac has good forward craft can clunk em and kick straight.

We have to force the TMac-Moore and JVR-Murphy matchups - this gives JVR a chance. Quaynor will probably go to Fritta, which will leave Howe as their key interceptor. That is a pretty tall setup defensively, which means we have to either isolate or get it in chaotically allowing our smalls to do the damage. The wet weather doesnt bode well for them either as they are currently 17th for ground balls (over the ground - not sure defensively).

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35 minutes ago, layzie said:

Is the weather a good thing for the Pies exactly? Hard to get quick ball movement going in the wet I would have thought. 

It makes their already risky high press every riskier because all their ground ball defenders push really high so the wet means any turnover leaves them exposed in defense as Moore’s job is much harder when it’s wet. 

Edited by Jaded No More
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11 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Going to be a huge call. I think TMac has to play Melksham's role. Athletically, i don't think they are too different from each other. Both strong and not super mobile. TMac has good forward craft can clunk em and kick straight.

We have to force the TMac-Moore and JVR-Murphy matchups - this gives JVR a chance. Quaynor will probably go to Fritta, which will leave Howe as their key interceptor. That is a pretty tall setup defensively, which means we have to either isolate or get it in chaotically allowing our smalls to do the damage. The wet weather doesnt bode well for them either as they are currently 17th for ground balls (over the ground - not sure defensively).

Agree tmac will come in for Melksham, but tmac is way less athletic and mobile when the ball hits the deck. Tmac is basically a zero in this area. It's my biggest worry bringing him in

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I wonder if the bye will work in our favor.

We are going into finals with more recent wins than the pies.

The one week off probably disrupts our momentum but at least we actually have some.

The pies have been all over the place the last five games and a week off doesn't help their confidence.

We have played two recent big games in Swans and Blues. While we only just  lost the latter, it was good finals prep.

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On 9/1/2023 at 6:07 PM, ElDiablo14 said:

Binman

What's the single most important thing we need to replicate from the KB match?

As I have expressed before in another post, the pressure at the source of Collingwood's transition game is key, in my view (see McVee,Salem and Lever).

We must win the territory contest at all cost!

Agree, winning territory is key. For us scoring from turnover and a positive turnover differential is also key, as of course is winning contested ball and pressure. Those things are key in all our games. 

But the most critical element for us is our defence system - and by that i mean our all team defence, not just our back seven.

Leaving aside the fact we want to negate the pies ability to transition fast any time we play them, there's no way we wanted to get into a fast transition game with the pies on KB because the Pies have us for pure leg speed and we were not fully wound up fitness wise (though nor were the Pies it must be said).

So if i was to pick one thing we need to replicate from the KB match on Thursday night it would be our brilliant all team defence and defensive system. 

We worked really hard to deny them time and space. We did this by:

  • working really hard to get players into the corridor and take that option away (and as the game wore on pick off their efforts to go thru the corridor)
  • working really hard to cover switches
  • compressing the ground and creating density by having our defenders push up
  • creating frontal pressure and having players run hard at the Pies ball carrier.

That latter element is critical because it gives them no space ahead of the ball carrier, making it really hard to run and carry forward (ie the way rivers has been playing in the back of the half of the season ie receive the ball, run and carry for 15-20 meters and launch, or even better hit a target in a dangerous spot).   

But it is a system that has to be spot on because when a player runs at the ball carrier to shut down their space, another dees player has to work hard to cover off the Pies player left free. And when they do so, space is created behind that player which also has to be covered. 

That is a very sophisticated, complex defensive system that requires a commitment from all players to do the defensive gut running it demands, great synergy and 100% confidence in your  teammates to do their job (not to mention elite fitness).

Get that wrong and the Pies just tic tac it down the ground. And that's how they carve teams up on transition, particularly any team that hasn't got their all team defensive system sorted. 

Our brilliant all team defence and defensive system on KB meant the Pies could never get the game looking like a 'Pies game'.

It also allowed us to control the tempo of the match  and frustrate the Pies because you could see they wanted to get the ball moving and we constantly stopped them from doing so.

It also meant the game was very much played on our terms and in a way that played to our strengths. That is the art of coaching - negate the oppo's strengths and maximize your teams' strengths.

I think there are two big difference between the KB and QF:

  • we are now in our optimal shape and will run out the game
  • i don't think the pies are in optimal shape and are struggling to run out games - they look so similar to us last season

If i'm right the Pies running power won't be the advantage it would have been if we had played them in say round four. 

When at their best the Pies have blitzed teams in the first quarter with speed from the back half, set up a fast game, then idle in the second and third quarters before using their superior fitness and leg speed and drop the hammer to blitz tiring teams in the last quarter. The KB was a mild version of this approach - they were on top the first 10 mins the last 10 mins of the game.

But they haven't been able to implement that method since the bye, and my theory is that is because they are running out of gas - as reflected by the fact they are no longer outscoring opponents in the last q, unlike the dees who have the best 4th quarter record in the AFL over the season and the last 6 weeks. 

But even though their running power is less a threat, i'm sure we will look to employ similar tactics in the fist half as we did on KB in terms of our all team defensive structure, denying them time and space and controlling the tempo.

And of course we will also look to cover the receiver to stymie their efforts to chain out from stoppages and contests (eg cover Sidebottom and pendles).

I say the first half, because my tip is the Pies will try do what we did late last season (i think because we knew we didn't have the run in the legs) - come out hard, play fast ball in motion footy, try to a get match winning lead and hang on for dear life.

So, i could see us stymie their ability to get the game on their terms in the first half, hold through 20 mins or so of the third quarter, and then, using our fitness advantage, do what we did to such devastating effect in the 2021 finals - drop the hammer and make it a fast transition game where we start taking more risks, use the corridor more and run in waves to create free players ahead of the ball.

Put the acid on the pies to go with us. 

Bang, bang, bang.

I cant see the Pies winning if they do not have at least a three goal lead at half time as we will run out the game better and roll over them. 

Edited by binman
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1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

Hey @WalkingCivilWar is the club trying to confuse Collingwood? Continued narrative that Fritta is not a certain starter… is it a whole club joke or something?

This is the fact… Fritta is pumped and raring to go. He is a definite starter. My belief is the Club want to confuse Collingwood (not hard to do 😁).

BTW, the moonboot never even existed… visible or invisible. 

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23 minutes ago, SPC said:

I hope Kossie sharpens his knees. Love watching the carnage against the swans when he flew for marks.. stand under the high ball at your peril Howe and Moore!

Can we use his knees on Cox's ribs... asking for a friend named Max.

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38 minutes ago, Bates Mate said:

Agree tmac will come in for Melksham, but tmac is way less athletic and mobile when the ball hits the deck. Tmac is basically a zero in this area. It's my biggest worry bringing him in

He isn't great, but i don't think Melksham was either. I think his role will be to ensure their intercept game doesn't get going. Given the forecasted conditions, we cannot have Kozzy, Chin or ANB fly for marks in packs. Better to have them on the ground waiting for crumbs - preferably 1 behind the pack and 2 in front / side.
 

Having TMac / JVR lead to different zones will also be important to keep Murphy and Moore apart. 

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47 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree, winning territory is key. For us scoring more from turnover is also key, as of course is winning contested ball. Those three things are key in all our game. 

But the most critical element for us is our defence system - and by that i mean our all team defence, not just our back 7.

Leaving aside the fact we want to negate the pies ability to transition fast any time we play them, there's no way we wanted to get into a fast transition game with the pies on KB because the Pies have us for pure leg speed and we were not fully wound up fitness wise (though nor were the Pies it must be said).

So if i was to pick one thing we need to replicate from the KB match in Thursday night it would be our brilliant all team defence and defensive system. 

We worked really hard to deny them time and space. We did this by:

  • working really hard to get players into the corridor and take that option away (and as the game wore on pick of their efforts to go thru the corridor)
  • working really hard to cover switches
  • compressing the ground and creating density by having our defenders push up
  • creating frontal pressure and having players run hard at the Pies ball carrier.

That latter element is critical because it gives them no space ahead of the ball carrier making it really hard to run and carry forward.

But it is a system that has to be spot on because when a player runs at the ball carrier to shut down their space another dees player has to work hard to cover of the Pies player left free. And when they do so, space is created behind that player and has to be covered. 

That is a very sophisticated, complex defensive system that requires great synergy and 100% confidence in your  teammates to do their job (not to mention elite fitness). Get that wrong and the Pies just tic tac it down the ground. And that's how they carve teams up on transition, particularly any team that hasn't got their all team defensive system sorted. 

Our brilliant all team defence and defensive system on KB meant the Pies could never get the game looking like a 'Pies game'. It also allowed us to control the tempo of the match  and frustrate the Pies because you could see they wanted to get the ball moving and we constantly stopped them from doing so.

It also meant the game was very much played on our terms and in a way that played to our strengths. That is the art of coaching - negate the oppo's strengths and maximize your teams' strengths.

I think there are two big difference between the KB and QF:

  • we are now in our optimal shape and will run out the game
  • i don't think the pies are in optimal shape and are struggling to run out games - they look so similar to us last season

If i'm right the Pies running power won't be the advantage it would have been if we had played them in say round four. 

When at their best the Pies have blitzed teams in the first quarter with speed from the back half, set up a fast game,  then idle in the second and third quarters before using their superior fitness and leg speed and drop the hammer to blitz tiring teams in the last quarter. The KB was a mild version of this approach - they were on top the first 10 mins the last 10 mins of the game.

But they haven't been able to implement that method since the bye, and my theory is that is because they are running out of gas - as reflected by the fact they are no longer outscoring opponents in the last q, unlike the dees who have the best 4th quarter record in the AFL over the season and the last 6 weeks. 

But even though their running power is less a threat, i'm sure we will look to employ similar tactics in the fist half as we did on KB in terms of all team defence structure, denying them time and space and controlling the tempo.

I say the first half, because my tip is the Pies will try do what we were trying to last season (i think because we knew we didn't have the run in the legs) - come out hard, play fast ball in motion footy, try to a get match winning lead and hang on for dear life.

So, i could see us stymie their ability to get the game on their terms, hold though the third quarter and then, using our fitness advantage,  do what we did to such devastating effect in the finals in 2021 - drop the hammer and make it a fast transition game where we start taking more risks, use the corridor more and run in waves to create free players ahead of the ball. 

Bang, bang, bang.

I cant see the Pies winning if they do not have at least a three goal lead at half time as we will run out the game better and roll over them. 

Good post but there’s one further big difference. 

On KB they didn’t have De Goey, Sidebottom, Elliott, Howe or McStay.

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22 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I’ve felt that since he left us he’s had multiple digs at us. 

Really not a fan.

Howe is still bitter that Roos and the MFC didn't rate him as highly as he rated himself with good reason. The season he had before he left is was very average

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2 hours ago, layzie said:

Is the weather a good thing for the Pies exactly? Hard to get quick ball movement going in the wet I would have thought. 

They’re ranked 16th & 17th for contested and ground ball gets, respectively. So on one hand the wet might stop their quick movement and best strength (scoring from their defensive 50), but on the other hand it might bring down the quality of our own contested footy and equalise things.

I think our biggest advantage in the wet is that they will have to play Cameron and Cox. They’ve flirted through the back end of the season with just Cameron and subbed out Cox, but neither are up to a solo ruck contest against Gawn.

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18 minutes ago, Bates Mate said:

Howe is still bitter that Roos and the MFC didn't rate him as highly as he rated himself with good reason. The season he had before he left is was very average

Agreed. He was great for the highlight reel, but his high bombs and kicking into the man on the mark were constant issues.

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37 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Good post but there’s one further big difference. 

On KB they didn’t have De Goey, Sidebottom, Elliott, Howe or McStay.

That's true.

And having those players in certainly improve their team, and their chances of winning. 

But none of those players are runners, so whilst they might win contested ball (degoey), intercept mark (howe), distribute (sidebottom) and provide a marking option up forward (Elliot and Mcstay) i don't think having them in the side will change  their tactical approach - or ours.

And besides we didn't have Clarry in the team. Apart from having Sidebottom and De Goey covered as a mid, Clarry's elite fitness and running power means we have another player in the team who can gut run defensively and take away the pies time, space and ability to transition the ball with speed.  

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5 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Will be lucky to play before a Grand Final. 
Knee fractures are no joke. 

I expect it's been explained somewhere, but what exactly is a knee fracture? I've never previously heard of this. My rudiementary understanding is that four bones contribute to the knee: femur, fibula, tibia and patella. Is a "knee fracture" a break in one of these bones? if so why isn't it called a "broken fibula" (for example)?

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