Little Goffy

Remarkably, last year when we started the season missing a number of forwards and were all anxious about even getting off to a respectable start that would keep us in the running for finals, we averaged more than 90 points a game for the first half of the season. From Round 13 to 19 (incl.) we had a serious drop off to only about 70 points per game and this was of course when we lost three games and drew against Hawthorn. Then, of course, it all clicked and we thumped our way to glory, averaging 107 points per game and pushing even higher in finals - just shy of 120. Meanwhile, in all three losses this season we failed to break double-figure goals, despite this season overall being higher scoring for us. I think the problem is that when our whole-ground domination and harassment falters or when our opponents have the steadiness to cope with it, we are missing a bit of ability to get a goal against the flow here and there, courtesy of a forward who can just make it happen even when the system isn't going smoothly. We are in the absolute top group for inside-50s, but other teams around us are turning that into one goal a game (Bulldogs, Cats) or even two goals a game (Tigers, Lions) more than us, and the common factor in all these teams is that they have at least one forward who, sometimes, it doesn't even matter how good the kick coming in is. The story is told that our top 4 contested marks players are not forwards; Gawn (3rd overall), then Petty (37th) May (47th) and Jackson (54th). It is Sam Weideman who leads or forward line contested marking. It's another reason I like the thought of keeping Serious Sam out there even when Gawn & Jackson are in, so that between them they\ stars can spend more time up forward being a tall target while Weideman takes some shin-beatings in the ruck.

An unorthodox action but if it works for him then that's what matters.

If we had a second Petty I'd be all for it, but our backline relies on the near-telepathic cooperation between the defenders and Petty is doing an exceptional job. Both May and Lever can do their job much better because Petty is doing his so reliably. Tragic for Tomlinson, but then again, Tomlinson could force himself into the team to cover a number of others so it is far from game over for him.

Just as a quick reference, the last time Collingwood played the Cats in a non 'blockbuster' slot (not friday night etc), with crowds permitted, was Round 8, 2018; a Sunday 3.20pm game. Magpies were 4-3 and on their way to a top 4 finish. The crowd of 44k was the smallest of the 8 games Geelong played at the MCG that year. Including the Demon's v Cats MCG game in round one, sunday 3.20pm, with 54,000, and our Elimination final win in front of 92,000. In 2017 the Magpies played the Cats at the MCG twice (yup), for crowds of 46k and 48k. Again, the Cats two smallest crowds at the MCG that year. Out of just 5 games they played there int he H&A season. It keeps going. Not only have Collingwood routinely been the only team to play Geelong at the 'G, they have also routinely been the Cats smallest crowd at the G - happened again on both points in 2015, 2012, and... actually I decided I'd had enough by then, but I think any debate is over. Anyway, Collingwood sucks and we're going to beat Geelong at Goomba stadium anyway.

The main similarity between Noble & Neeld is of course that it will never be known if they could have been an effective coach if only they had been at a functional club. North have been screwed ever since their 'war chest' seasons where they dumped their still-performing veterans and banked up salary cap to attract... um... was it Jared Polec? Missing Cunnington and with Ziebell clearly overwhelmed, by my reckoning that leaves just Luke McDonald and Todd Goldstein as mature players who can provide guidance and consistency to the group. No offense to Hall, Greenwood, Anderson, Walker and Corr, but they aren't that kind of leader. Meanwhile, Horne-Francis has an idea of what might be best for him, and it isn't following in the footsteps of Jack Grimes and Jack Trengove, burdened with carrying both the hopes and the midfield of his club. Throw in the fact that half the clubs in the competition are in search of competitive tall forwards and defenders, and there is a real danger they could lose one or both of Nick Larkey and Ben McKay. If they lose one, add an entire season to their rebuild duration. If they lose both, North have no structure left anywhere on the ground. It has been 11 rounds since North came within seven goals of an opponent, and their only win for the season was this; The Kangaroos have narrowly survived an almighty scare from a desperately undermanned West Coast outfit, holding on for a 15-point victory thanks to six goals from Nick Larkey on a chaotic day at Marvel Stadium. Despite being forced to make a whopping 14 changes to their Round 1 side — a VFL/AFL record — the depleted Eagles remained within striking distance of David Noble’s side for the entire game. I don't see how North recover from their current situation. This is ruining my morning coffee.

There is no way it helps winning to be treating opponents with less dignity or decency. If our players' habit is to help each other up and then sometimes it just happens to be an opponent nearest in the mud pack, so be it. I'd rather an occasional cross-team bit of friendliness than have that habit diminished at all.

Geelong have strung together six wins in a row, but the highest ranked of those opponents is Richmond, in seventh now, who they only just scraped past. Their whole midfield/medium-sized player pool is quality without being exceptional. Yes, even Dangerfield and Selwood are now just quality without being exceptional. That will make for an interesting coaching challenge - our 'best' centre clearance midfield ought to shred theirs, but then their second rotation will be basically the same quality as their first. I have a feeling we will see some brutal momentum turns when Petracca is brought into the middle at the same time as the other prime movers are sent in after a refresh. Missing Stewart and now apparently Kolodjashnij as well not only shrinks their defence, it really reduced their intercept marks. On both counts that'll suit us as we will have more forward-50s actually stay in our forward 50, and when they do come out it'll be a little less clean and will often play literally into the hands of our harass-and-intercept game. Their forward line is more of a problem because we won't have so much luxury to move off opponents when they have the two potent talls up there. Stengle also worries me as just the kind of small forward who has always, always caused us trouble. I also think we might see our own forwards break loose a bit. For all that Ben Brown has struggled for form, I think he goes a step faster than anyone they have who is tall enough to go with him. I also think Fritsch will beat any given opponent they might send to him; when it isn't by mobility, it'll be out-contesting or by sheer cleverness. Got to admit, I really would like to make Geelong our bunny team, now and forever.

Hardly surprising that Angus can do that when the highlights from the Freo game make very clear that his brother can teleport.

We can all be thankful that he is attending the Nathan Jones Academy of Gradually Getting Better Looking As You Age.

Exactly. If Weideman can be an adequate role-player to ease some of the grind time in the ruck, while playing a more open 3rd tall/link lead style mostly outside the f50, I think that allows us to use our ruck beasts up forward with really good effect. Hell, rotated cleverly we could see both Gawn and Jackson playing close to 100% game time because even standing still 20m from goal they would still demand the best opposition defender.

Yep. The argument for 'Jackson is the absolute perfect fit for the Demon's needs now and for the next ten years' is unmissable. Unfortunately, he is also a very good fit for just about any club's needs, and our offer has to compete with whichever other club decides they want him the most. It'll all come down to where he feels he will be happiest, because let's face it, $100k isn't such a big number when it is your eighth 100k instead of your first.

The way I see it, our problem is that a key forward capable of giving reliable contests, taking marks or bringing it to ground usefully, is a very expensive player. But... what if you had a forward who was only ever getting to the edge of selection as a key target, but it turns out they might go alright as a ruck support who then gives leads all over the ground, rather than under the close checking inside 50? And what if you had two absolutely premium quality players currently in your ruck but who both can compete very well up forward, filling the need structurally and also delivering great football? There's a wonderful expression, 'If there are four cats to chase, it is the grenadiers who are demanded.' The point of course being that not all tasks should require the most elite forces at all times, and overuse wears them out to the point of ineffectiveness. I'm sure I'm not the only one who will be watching Sam Weideman very, very closely during this period where he will be taking on a fair load of ruck work. If he can deliver as a solid role player who frees up the Gawn/Jackson 'grenadiers' to be available more often at the crucial points, then our forward line is about to become much more dangerous. It also has very good implications for managing salary cap!

Ahh, David King. His main comment on the 2019 draft was to question Melbourne's selection of each of Jackson and Pickett as being 'not what the club really needs' and overpaying for both. I don't like it when people are paid well to do things which I (and many others) could do better with little effort.

Coaches pet. Goodwin has never coached a Demon game without including Oliver. Maybe never will.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/alltime/misc_players.html A win this weekend would mean Pickett goes ahead of Selwood as the 'most winningest' player in the AFL (with more than 50 games as the cut-off).