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PREGAME: QF vs Collingwood


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8 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Yes, we’ve lost a bunch of times in the wet this year. 

But did we lose because of the wet? I’m not sure we did. 

The GWS game is a great example. Our game plan stood up all say despite the rain. It wasn’t the game plan that led to the loss, it was goal kicking. Our “contest and defence” was fine. 

We were a kick off beating Port in the rain and played one of our best quarters of the season when it poured. That loss didn’t at all suggest to me our game doesn’t work in the wet. We just got beat by a fop 4 side with an AA mid playing out of his skin.

We've spent most of 2023 illustrating that we can win in different ways. Slogs, shoot outs, slingshot contests etc. So the suggestion that we rely on May or Lever to intercept or our game falls over is nonsense.

We can be utterly dominant if those two get going, but that's the 2021 model, we no longer need them intercepting to score and in fact are more about all our mids ands defenders winning intercept possessions and going back the other way.

No doubt our ability to neutralise/defend ground ball contests inside defensive 50 is the biggest threat when wet weather arrives, but the opposition has to deal with the same threat.

In other words, I completely agree. 

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I'd like to share some personal thoughts with demonlanders.

Out of all the games in the H/A season, I found Rd22 Carlton vs Melbourne to be the toughest, and Rd19 PA vs Collingwood as the second toughest. In the latter game, it was a showdown between the top two teams at the time, with Collingwood missing Will Hoskin-Elliott, while Port Adelaide had a full lineup.

If we could somehow get the Rd19 Port Adelaide team and Collingwood's, and the Rd22 Carlton team and Melbourne's, and have them compete against each other, I believe Carlton would have beaten Port Adelaide and Collingwood, and we would have beaten them too.

I also think that both Melbourne and Carlton have another level to reach in the finals series, but I can't see Collingwood and Port Adelaide having that same potential.

I'd rate the potential performance "gear" of each team:

Melbourne: One gear

Carlton: One gear

St Kilda: Half a gear

Collingwood: A quarter gear

Brisbane: A quarter gear

Port Adelaide: A quarter gear 

GWS: A quarter gear (maybe half a gear)

Sydney: A quarter gear

For a while, I thought Ken Hinkley was a very good coach during the H/A season. However, his problem was that he allowed Port Adelaide to give their best during the regular season, leaving almost no "gear" for the finals. Even though he might have the best Port Adelaide team now, I still have doubts. I also have doubts about Craig McRae. He's done a great job since early last year, and his playing style is attractive and good to watch. However, I wonder why no other coaches tried this style before him. When it comes to the finals, I don't think any of the other seven teams would let Collingwood play in their style. In fact, they are all capable of slowing down Collingwood's offense. I expect Collingwood's playing style to face more tests next year from teams like Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane, Adelaide, Sydney, Hawthorn, St Kilda, and GWS. They have some big challenges ahead.

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7 hours ago, YearOfTheDees said:

Jeremy Howe got a little bit to say. Tomorrows Hun

Even Jeremy Howe knew Brodie Grundy as a forward wasn't going to work. 👀

Get out now: Pie’s pointed message to Grundy

Brodie Grundy is set for his third club in three years after the failed trade to Melbourne. What do his former teammates think of his treatment by the Demons? 

 

This win is going to feel even better now.

I find this incredibly irritating. Howe has put the boots into our club at every opportunity. [censored]. Hoping this gives our players a bit of extra edge. 

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Nick Daicos confirmed out (source: The Age)

“He’s progressing really well, really happy with the progress so far. He’s completed a couple of runs and pulled up really well from both of those. The timing is just going to be a little bit short for the first final [qualifying final], so we will rule him out of that one” - Magpies high-performance boss Jarrod Wade

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1 hour ago, Wells 11 said:

I find this incredibly irritating. Howe has put the boots into our club at every opportunity. [censored]. Hoping this gives our players a bit of extra edge. 

Maybe we get in their heads game time.

As Scott Pendlebury said in today's Age, time is running out for getting a flag given his age, and that of Howe amongst others.

Pies lose to us this week and that's it for them. No way do they beat the Lions in a PF in Brisbane.

Maybe try again next year Jeremy. 

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2 minutes ago, TheWiz said:

Nick Daicos confirmed out (source: The Age)

“He’s progressing really well, really happy with the progress so far. He’s completed a couple of runs and pulled up really well from both of those. The timing is just going to be a little bit short for the first final [qualifying final], so we will rule him out of that one” - Magpies high-performance boss Jarrod Wade

Will be lucky to play before a Grand Final. 
Knee fractures are no joke. 

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Strengths and Weakness analysis from AFL site.

Collingwood v Melbourne, qualifying final

Collingwood

STRENGTHS: The Magpies' ball movement is among their many weapons, generating an inside 50 from 32.2 per cent of their defensive half chains and scoring from 13.8 per cent of their defensive half chains (both ranked No.1). They are also among the best pressure teams, leading the League for pressure rating differential this season and applying a pressure factor of 182. While some teams collapse to apply pressure before a clearance but get caught on the outside, the Magpies lead the AFL for applying pressure before and after a clearance. They have a balanced game in terms of score sources, ranking No.3 for points from turnover differential (+11.2) and No.2 for points from clearance differential (+8.7).

WEAKNESS: Collingwood's weakness leading into finals has been ball-winning, losing the contested possession count by 8.7 per game (ranked No.16) and the groundball gets differential by 12 (No.17) since round 17.

Melbourne

STRENGTHS: The Demons remain among the best defensive teams in the AFL, ranking No.2 for points conceded (72.2) and No.1 for scores conceded per opposition inside 50. Defending transition is a key and the Demons have allowed their opposition to generate an inside 50 from just 24 per cent of defensive-half chains, and a score from just 9.1 per cent (both ranked No.1). With a strong turnover game, the Demons have scored 53.1 points a game from turnover this season and conceded the fewest points from turnover of any side (41.1 per game).

WEAKNESS: Melbourne's weakness is its kicking, recording a kicking efficiency of just 63.9 per cent (ranked No.17). The 2021 premier's kick rating of -3.5 per cent for kicks going into the forward 50 ranks last.  

Edited by Dee Zephyr
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55 minutes ago, TheWiz said:

Nick Daicos confirmed out (source: The Age)

“He’s progressing really well, really happy with the progress so far. He’s completed a couple of runs and pulled up really well from both of those. The timing is just going to be a little bit short for the first final [qualifying final], so we will rule him out of that one” - Magpies high-performance boss Jarrod Wade

He will get plenty of game time in the semi.

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3 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

I find this incredibly irritating. Howe has put the boots into our club at every opportunity. [censored]. Hoping this gives our players a bit of extra edge. 

Got a bit of lip on him these days Jeremy. 

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On 9/2/2023 at 9:46 PM, Binmans PA said:

Cox like playing against us, and doesn't have the worst record. I could see him troubling us in the air. Pre Steven May, he certainly did. I hope they don't play him. I think they will though.

Two Ruckmen on a wet night would be madness!

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Not surprises here … must get 2-3 rookies with elite kicking skills… we have the midfield bulls … need for elite distribution to reward winning the contested footy !! 

 

WEAKNESS: Melbourne's weakness is its kicking, recording a kicking efficiency of just 63.9 per cent (ranked No.17). The 2021 premier's kick rating of -3.5 per cent for kicks going into the forward 50 ranks last. 

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1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Strengths and Weakness analysis from AFL site.

Collingwood v Melbourne, qualifying final

Collingwood

STRENGTHS: The Magpies' ball movement is among their many weapons, generating an inside 50 from 32.2 per cent of their defensive half chains and scoring from 13.8 per cent of their defensive half chains (both ranked No.1). They are also among the best pressure teams, leading the League for pressure rating differential this season and applying a pressure factor of 182. While some teams collapse to apply pressure before a clearance but get caught on the outside, the Magpies lead the AFL for applying pressure before and after a clearance. They have a balanced game in terms of score sources, ranking No.3 for points from turnover differential (+11.2) and No.2 for points from clearance differential (+8.7).

WEAKNESS: Collingwood's weakness leading into finals has been ball-winning, losing the contested possession count by 8.7 per game (ranked No.16) and the groundball gets differential by 12 (No.17) since round 17.

Melbourne

STRENGTHS: The Demons remain among the best defensive teams in the AFL, ranking No.2 for points conceded (72.2) and No.1 for scores conceded per opposition inside 50. Defending transition is a key and the Demons have allowed their opposition to generate an inside 50 from just 24 per cent of defensive-half chains, and a score from just 9.1 per cent (both ranked No.1). With a strong turnover game, the Demons have scored 53.1 points a game from turnover this season and conceded the fewest points from turnover of any side (41.1 per game).

WEAKNESS: Melbourne's weakness is its kicking, recording a kicking efficiency of just 63.9 per cent (ranked No.17). The 2021 premier's kick rating of -3.5 per cent for kicks going into the forward 50 ranks last.  

If you look at the two weaknesses when it comes to finals intensity, I know which weakness I'd prefer over the other.

If you can't win contest and the team you're playing against is the best defensive team in the league, you're going to have to feast on every turnover by foot, but given the strength of the defensive system you're playing against, the odds are not in your favour.

While finals pressure tends to reduce all DE.

Edited by Binmans PA
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23 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Not surprises here … must get 2-3 rookies with elite kicking skills… we have the midfield bulls … need for elite distribution to reward winning the contested footy !! 

 

WEAKNESS: Melbourne's weakness is its kicking, recording a kicking efficiency of just 63.9 per cent (ranked No.17). The 2021 premier's kick rating of -3.5 per cent for kicks going into the forward 50 ranks last. 

How can we be -3.5%? Are we kicking backwards??!

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29 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Hey @WalkingCivilWar is the club trying to confuse Collingwood? Continued narrative that Fritta is not a certain starter… is it a whole club joke or something?

I wouldn't be stressing about anything.

Tom Morris on SEN this morning was saying that Melbourne were keeping their cards extremely close to their chest regarding all matters.

Journo's are just spit balling because they're struggling to gain any information from within the club.

He'll play.

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