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Changes v Hawthorn - Semi Final


The Great Pretender
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19 minutes ago, Deestar9 said:

Reckon we stay the same & then dependant on VFL form & how we go this week.....we have match fit 2nd’s  players to pick from if needs be !

Isn't depth a wonderful thing.. and its REAL depth too.

Joel Smith was starting to look really good before he hurt his shoulder.  Even if he doesn't get back in this finals, hes yet another exciting prospect for us in 2019.  

Edited by Petraccattack
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8 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

Hawthorn's effort and intensity were pretty good. They just weren't good enough.

Now way man, they were dead flat, scared and fumbly from half-time. Never seen so many shirking oncoming tackles..

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9 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Do we back our system or try to stop theirs - or a measure of both?

This is a big question. I guess if we back ourselves first, and bash them the first quarter, absorbing their energy and evoke feelings of fear and self-preservation, we can then get a run on and string a few together. But last week, we kind of did both at the same time, stoped their flow, and pressed on with ours.

Hmmm, I’m confused now...

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3 hours ago, MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday said:

What you need to do. Is go and get that part of your brain cut out. Hunt is no where near it and provides us with nothing that improves us.

Garlett stamped his own papers against the Swans. No Heart picks and chooses contests..

The point is, they’d give a lot more than Spargo in his current state, even if they weren’t 100%. Personally I’d prefer Kent but that looks doubtful 

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6 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

Isn't depth a wonderful thing.. and its REAL depth too.

Joel Smith was starting to look really good before he hurt his shoulder.  Even if he doesn't get back in this finals, hes yet another exciting prospect for us in 2019.  

And Stretch was looking like a proper AFL player before getting injured

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9 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

I'm perplexed at people thinking Spargo should be dropped. I know his numbers are huge but he just keeps buzzing in and out being helpful. As others have pointed out, he seems to always be doing the little team things like getting in the way of opponents, shepherding, and you can tell he is both alert to what's around him and has good habits with the on-field talk to avoid stuff-ups. I'm confident he'll be a very handy player and also sure that right now he's making a good contribution.

He's like the useful sidekick character in every hero movie ever made.

Plus, there is this. I mean, really. He's the human personification of the cure for MFCSS.

 

1028459262-612x612.jpg

What a brilliant photo. Certainly a perfect way to sum up the moment

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17 hours ago, deanox said:

Also the more I reflect on the Hawks line up, the more I think we need some extra height down back. But Smith only gives us 3 cms on Fritsch...

Good point, but he offers far more physical presence and can provide slightly better match ups IMO

I think I'd be happy with Spargo out for Smith. Young fella has had the run in the finals he earned, its now Joel's turn. 

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14 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I know @Clint Bizkit and I are the only ones who think this, but if anyone should be dropped it should be VDB IMO.

 

t_u, I reckon this is the first time in 11 years I've read one of your posts and gone "what?!". I fully understand the concerns over his ball use sometimes, and he had too many clangers against Geelong for sure (also an outlier compared to recent form this year IMO), but he exemplifies the way we want to approach the game.  Of the names he's competing with, including Hannan, Spargo, JKH, Kent, Garlett etc - he is tougher, more contested and tackles better than any of them. It outweighs the occasional misuse of the ball easily.

His name doesn't even come up if I'm in the match committee.

Edit: some stats, if interested:

If you use the "clanger" stat as proxy for poor ball use (I prefer it over DE% as what's defined as an efficient disposal seems totally arbitrary - a clanger is defined as a disposal that directly gives the opposition the ball back), the stats support your position - his percentage of clangers to possessions was 38% - second only to Melksham at 55% (want to drop Melksham?) - the only other to come close was Brayshaw at 31%.  Looking at the team's season average, the median is about 14% and the mean 16% so the acceptable range is somewhere in the 11-20% range. On that basis, 38% is way out of bounds.  

Our worst players across the season have been Hunt, Maynard, Bugg, Pedersen and Frost.  There are no surprises there, accept that none of them have played a lot of games, though most have been available for most of the season with the exception of Maynard, and Hunt if you really want to stretch the definition, which is probably not a coincidence.  

Vanders previous games registered 14%, 20%, 14% and 14%, so that would support my supposition that this game was an outlier.

I know it relies on a heavy assumption that the CG stat is a good proxy for poor disposal (especially in that it doesn't account for the kicks that slightly miss the mark and cause a contest, where a better one would have put it down the forward's throat etc), but I thought it interesting and tells the story I thought it would.  I know plenty of people will say "stats schmats", those people need not bother replying.

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Guys, I'm a bit worried about some of our forward at the moment. Petracca's kicking has been terrible all season and he doesn't have any confidence shooting for goal and rightly so but then we also have melksham who is lacking confidence too and resorting to snaps from directly in front to avoid the pressure of the drop punt. I don't think we can have to forwards down on confidence. If Petracca is in the team (and he was a liability against the cats) then I think he needs to play further up the ground as we can't carry his goal kicking anymore. 

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6 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

Guys, I'm a bit worried about some of our forward at the moment. Petracca's kicking has been terrible all season and he doesn't have any confidence shooting for goal and rightly so but then we also have melksham who is lacking confidence too and resorting to snaps from directly in front to avoid the pressure of the drop punt. I don't think we can have to forwards down on confidence. If Petracca is in the team (and he was a liability against the cats) then I think he needs to play further up the ground as we can't carry his goal kicking anymore. 

Petracca was and is fine. He was instrumental in the Jones goal in the last quarter, when he sharked the ball from his opponent, weaved through traffic, and handballed to Jones without the skipper having to break stride. He also created a number of contests at half forward when delivery favoured the defence and he had every right to be outmarked. His goal kicking is a bit of a concern, but I think he's adding more than enough as a forward to persist. I'm not against midfield time as he's been good when he's gone there this year, but I don't see a pressing need for him there, unless he's going to rotate with Clarry. Petracca is definitely the better forward of the two at this stage though.

I hate it when people refer to players as liabilities. Petracca is definitely not more negative to the team than positive, otherwise he wouldn't be in it.

Melksham definitely had game below the standard we've come to expect, but I'm not worried at all. Every time we've started to wonder about him this year, he's followed it up with a huge game. I'm confident it will happen and am excited by the prospect of him turning it on in a huge final.

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Lightning doesn't strike twice... 1 goal 10 for a half .. nah won't happen again he says

Watched that second quarter on replay... amazing our domination... more than the first ... yet they outscored us.

That bunch can certainly play.... as to the snaps... the rule of averages says you are going to miss a few even as high as 50% but to shoot at 9% including set shots was amazingly bad luck

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2 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

What?

Dropping VDB for this game is a ridiculous notion. He has players worried about his presence now - he causes turnovers being in the vicinity of the footy. 

The ferocity of a final means Vanders and his disposal becomes less of an issue because the skills of all bar the best players are rushed and imperfect.

I was being flippant but, seriously, WTF.

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1 hour ago, Nasher said:

Petracca was and is fine. He was instrumental in the Jones goal in the last quarter, when he sharked the ball from his opponent, weaved through traffic, and handballed to Jones without the skipper having to break stride. He also created a number of contests at half forward when delivery favoured the defence and he had every right to be outmarked. His goal kicking is a bit of a concern, but I think he's adding more than enough as a forward to persist. I'm not against midfield time as he's been good when he's gone there this year, but I don't see a pressing need for him there, unless he's going to rotate with Clarry. Petracca is definitely the better forward of the two at this stage though.

I hate it when people refer to players as liabilities. Petracca is definitely not more negative to the team than positive, otherwise he wouldn't be in it.

Melksham definitely had game below the standard we've come to expect, but I'm not worried at all. Every time we've started to wonder about him this year, he's followed it up with a huge game. I'm confident it will happen and am excited by the prospect of him turning it on in a huge final.

Not sure which player you've been watching. No offence but Petracca has been awful. It was further highlighted on Footy Classified last night when Chris Judd singled him out and showed a highlights package of his mistakes. Fumbling, missing goals, dropping marks, missing tackles etc. Of course when you're on the footy field for 2 hours you're going to do some good things but his dropped mark in the 2nd quarter let Geelong right back into the game. It was his dropped mark that really changed the momentum of the game and started the string of mistakes. And then he has the chance to kick a goal from 30 out on a slight angle and he misses.  I want to see him lift big time because he has been annoying me for months now. 

 

Edited by Dr.D
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6 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

Not sure which player you've been watching. No offence but Petracca has been awful. It was further highlighted on Footy Classified last night when Chris Judd singled him out and showed a highlights package of his mistakes. Fumbling, missing goals, dropping marks, missing tackles etc. Of course when you're on the footy field for 2 hours you're going to do some good things but his dropped mark in the 2nd quarter let Geelong right back into the game. It was his dropped mark that really changed the momentum of the game and started the string of mistakes. And then he has the chance to kick a goal from 30 out on a slight angle and he misses.  I want to see him lift big time because he has been annoying me for months now. 

 

I can’t have been at the same games as you ...I mean ...really ???

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9 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

Not sure which player you've been watching. No offence but Petracca has been awful. It was further highlighted on Footy Classified last night when Chris Judd singled him out and showed a highlights package of his mistakes. Fumbling, missing goals, dropping marks, missing tackles etc. Of course when you're on the footy field for 2 hours you're going to do some good things but his dropped mark in the 2nd quarter let Geelong right back into the game. It was his dropped mark that really changed the momentum of the game and started the string of mistakes. And then he has the chance to kick a goal from 30 out on a slight angle and he misses.  I want to see him lift big time because he has been annoying me for months now. 

 

And you wondered why i chose Mark Neeld as your avatar.........

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23 hours ago, Bay Riffin said:

for the first half. Richmond smashed them after half time.

IMO Whoreform did play their best brand in the first half against the Tiges, and that was based upon their physical capacity to play against a 'running' team using teamwork patterns relatively well. This means to me that the Whorkes have few fresh legs at this stage of the season - and sides seem to temper the impact of their runners across a game. Whilst there are exceptions, singular contributions don't win finals - team momentum breaks down. These are things/observations that the Dees are continuously displaying with noted improvements in the last few games, even in shut-downs where occasional lapses have stretched across a game. I'd reckon we will smash them after half time, too.

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10 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

IMO Whoreform did play their best brand in the first half against the Tiges, and that was based upon their physical capacity to play against a 'running' team using teamwork patterns relatively well. This means to me that the Whorkes have few fresh legs at this stage of the season - and sides seem to temper the impact of their runners across a game. Whilst there are exceptions, singular contributions don't win finals - team momentum breaks down. These are things/observations that the Dees are continuously displaying with noted improvements in the last few games, even in shut-downs where occasional lapses have stretched across a game. I'd reckon we will smash them after half time, too.

As evidenced by us winning with a 'meagre' by our standards 75 points... 

As far as I can tell, in no stage during Goodwin's tenure have we won a game with that score... whilst keeping the opposition comfortably beneath it.

The team are becoming comfortable in their defensive and forward systems...and is more nuanced than blow them out of the water by merely kicking more.

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6 hours ago, Dr.D said:

Guys, I'm a bit worried about some of our forward at the moment. Petracca's kicking has been terrible all season and he doesn't have any confidence shooting for goal and rightly so but then we also have melksham who is lacking confidence too and resorting to snaps from directly in front to avoid the pressure of the drop punt. I don't think we can have to forwards down on confidence. If Petracca is in the team (and he was a liability against the cats) then I think he needs to play further up the ground as we can't carry his goal kicking anymore. 

Petracca plays deep forward because he's a difficult match up 1 on 1, is the best crumber in the side (a low bar to clear) and most importantly deep forward is where his defensive ability/liabilities are best placed. 

He's the closest thing we have to a zippy tackling agility type player (ie. a Rioli). He's not a great runner. So deep is better than up the ground.

Spargo and ANB play higher and use their work rate. Hannan plays deeper where he can chase, crumb or get out the back 1 on 1.

Petracca had some stinky moments, dropping marks or not going for them. But he set up the first goal and the crucial Jones goal. He's not the only player to not perform in their first final. 

Yes our forward line isn't perfect. We'll rely on a group of T Mc, Weids, Petracca, Melksham and Hannan as the deeper forwards and they probably have to kick 8-10 each week for us to win, with the half forwards, mids and half backs chiming in for another 3-5. 

The good news is we have 5 guys who can all take a mark or get on the end of a lead.The finishing has to be better but if we bring the ball in well we should get some good match ups.

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5 hours ago, Dr.D said:

Not sure which player you've been watching. No offence but Petracca has been awful. It was further highlighted on Footy Classified last night when Chris Judd singled him out and showed a highlights package of his mistakes. Fumbling, missing goals, dropping marks, missing tackles etc. Of course when you're on the footy field for 2 hours you're going to do some good things but his dropped mark in the 2nd quarter let Geelong right back into the game. It was his dropped mark that really changed the momentum of the game and started the string of mistakes. And then he has the chance to kick a goal from 30 out on a slight angle and he misses.  I want to see him lift big time because he has been annoying me for months now. 

 

That's a reasonable analysis of his game.  He was off.  But he created heaps of opportunities in a difficult role and he does have the natural ability to execute.  I think like Goodwin said about the team after the Geelong loss - we're so close to putting it all together.  If Petracca executes on his opportunities and he kicks  6 and is the match winner.  It is possible for him like no-one else.  Have patience I think he might explode soon.

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