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Webber

We might be in trouble this season.

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Having digested Sunday's game over a couple of days, sadly I reckon this year's version of the Demons might have some significant problems. Inevitably we compare to last year to see signs of evolution, but such a comparison so far is worrying. 

Maybe the biggest flaw in our overall game last year was that we were consistently outmarked. Ends up that in 2017, we were 15th ranked for marks. Sunday gave me no reason to think this has been in any way corrected. Teams who can control the tempo of possession are going to expose us in the air in attack, and frustrate our marking efforts in the front half. Having no Tom McDonald, one of, if not our best marking target, doesn't help. 

Our best football last year relied on a fierce ascendancy at stoppages. Thus by controlling the ball at stoppages and by sheer weight of attack we were able to find a way to goals. However, we lack efficiency when the ball is ours, and are prone to turnovers. Being consistently dominant at clearances is much harder way to win games of footy than being better organised and better users of the ball. Psychologically it also requires key figures who can lead a team dynamic. Teams know that we are inevitably prone to lapses, and that we are more vulnerable without Jack Viney's lead from the front influence. 

Defensively we are too brittle, for periods that last too long. The second quarter was a reminder that teams can open us up when we lose defensive accountability. This is in part of function of the above, and that we struggle to regain possession when our high demand pressure game drops off. 

Selection. It doesn't matter how much Simon Goodwin says he picked Sunday's team on preseason form, any of us who have followed pre-season know that these are 'alternative facts'. How either Dom Tyson, Angus Bradshaw, arguably Billy Stretch and even Tom Bugg were not preferred to Corey Maynard and Josh Wagner (no slight on their efforts) rightfully had most of us baffled. The concern is that this is driven by a mysterious agenda, or at worst that there are personality or political issues at the club. 

I know barring a shoelace's influence, Max would've kicked that goal on Sunday, but that would have done nothing to alter my thoughts as above. It's hard to see us beating a hometown Brisbane this week, who showed last year that they can match it with us. On the other hand, we had at least half a dozen players on Sunday who were well below their best, and will hopefully wake up. Based on one telling game though, I'd say we're going to need some luck to make the eight, and some inspiration, and top four is at this stage fantasy land. 

Too soon? 

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We have lost every match!

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Please pass me your knife...

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You're reading way too much into one game.  And especially the first game.

They'll learn much from this game, which is the first bit of relevant evidence they've been able to dissect for 6 months.

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23 minutes ago, Webber said:

Having digested Sunday's game over a couple of days, sadly I reckon this year's version of the Demons might have some significant problems. Inevitably we compare to last year to see signs of evolution, but such a comparison so far is worrying. 

Maybe the biggest flaw in our overall game last year was that we were consistently outmarked. Ends up that in 2017, we were 15th ranked for marks. Sunday gave me no reason to think this has been in any way corrected. Teams who can control the tempo of possession are going to expose us in the air in attack, and frustrate our marking efforts in the front half. Having no Tom McDonald, one of, if not our best marking target, doesn't help. 

Our best football last year relied on a fierce ascendancy at stoppages. Thus by controlling the ball at stoppages and by sheer weight of attack we were able to find a way to goals. However, we lack efficiency when the ball is ours, and are prone to turnovers. Being consistently dominant at clearances is much harder way to win games of footy than being better organised and better users of the ball. Psychologically it also requires key figures who can lead a team dynamic. Teams know that we are inevitably prone to lapses, and that we are more vulnerable without Jack Viney's lead from the front influence. 

Defensively we are too brittle, for periods that last too long. The second quarter was a reminder that teams can open us up when we lose defensive accountability. This is in part of function of the above, and that we struggle to regain possession when our high demand pressure game drops off. 

Selection. It doesn't matter how much Simon Goodwin says he picked Sunday's team on preseason form, any of us who have followed pre-season know that these are 'alternative facts'. How either Dom Tyson, Angus Bradshaw, arguably Billy Stretch and even Tom Bugg were not preferred to Corey Maynard and Josh Wagner (no slight on their efforts) rightfully had most of us baffled. The concern is that this is driven by a mysterious agenda, or at worst that there are personality or political issues at the club. 

I know barring a shoelace's influence, Max would've kicked that goal on Sunday, but that would have done nothing to alter my thoughts as above. It's hard to see us beating a hometown Brisbane this week, who showed last year that they can match it with us. On the other hand, we had at least half a dozen players on Sunday who were well below their best, and will hopefully wake up. Based on one telling game though, I'd say we're going to need some luck to make the eight, and some inspiration, and top four is at this stage fantasy land. 

Too soon? 

 

 

13 minutes ago, ProDee said:

You're reading way too much into one game.  And especially the first game.

They'll learn much from this game, which is the first bit of relevant evidence they've been able to dissect for 6 months.

I have considerable respect for both posters.  Webber presents some sound arguments, but I hope ProDee is correct.

Edited by Deeoldfart
Too quick with thr 'save' button.
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Alert not alarmed.

Yes we get thrashed in the air most weeks.  We are not a great marking team and that won't be an easy thing to change.  We can make up for that by dominating clearances.

Most other issues that we had on Sunday can be tweaked by coaches and with selection.

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22 minutes ago, ProDee said:

You're reading way too much into one game.  And especially the first game.

They'll learn much from this game, which is the first bit of relevant evidence they've been able to dissect for 6 months.

But have the players learned anything? Around 6 players went missing quite frequently, losing their opponent for some other objective that left the team exposed and in some parts of the ground, undermanned. I'd like to think that one lesson could cover the gaps and lapses. Until Viney, TMac return, it is going to be very tough at best. Are we too good to have a place for Brayshaw, Tyson. Frost? 

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I didn't like the structure of the side overly on Sunday, we looked too short at either end of the ground, especially up forward when Jesse pushed into the midfield.

Really missed big Tom, Pedo doesn't play particularly well as a key forward but I can't think of too many other options....

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35 minutes ago, ProDee said:

You're reading way too much into one game.  And especially the first game.

They'll learn much from this game, which is the first bit of relevant evidence they've been able to dissect for 6 months.

Didn't learn much last year. I see the same patterns, long bombs, three flying for the same mark etc etc etc Over use of handball Oi WEh Oi Weh

Edited by dieter
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4 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

But have the players learned anything? Around 6 players went missing quite frequently, losing their opponent for some other objective that left the team exposed and in some parts of the ground, undermanned. I'd like to think that one lesson could cover the gaps and lapses. Until Viney, TMac return, it is going to be very tough at best. Are we too good to have a place for Brayshaw, Tyson. Frost? 

We had a lot of players down.  They also had opponents to contend with.  It is what it is.  It's round 1.  Much will be learnt and competition for spots is hot.

Geelong were beaten in inside 50s by 23, contested possession, tackles, clearances, and lost 3 of the 4 quarters ?  Did they not learn anything over summer ?

It's round 1 and there were positives to take out of the game as well as areas the coaches will address.

GWS flogged Footscray by 80 odd points.  Guess what ?  There will be players and areas of the game they need to improve upon.

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On the basis of the one competitive game I have witnessed so far in 2018 I make these slightly premature observations (by comparison to 2017)

Petracca has gone to the next level

Fritsch is a handy replacement for Watts

Lever adds an important layer in the back half

Harmes continues to develop into a significant contributor

Oliver has maintained the lofty standards he set in 2017

ANB is on 40+ goals pace

Wagner played a Hibberd-like quarter in round 1

 

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1 hour ago, Webber said:

Having digested Sunday's game over a couple of days, sadly I reckon this year's version of the Demons might have some significant problems. Inevitably we compare to last year to see signs of evolution, but such a comparison so far is worrying. 

Maybe the biggest flaw in our overall game last year was that we were consistently outmarked. Ends up that in 2017, we were 15th ranked for marks. Sunday gave me no reason to think this has been in any way corrected. Teams who can control the tempo of possession are going to expose us in the air in attack, and frustrate our marking efforts in the front half. Having no Tom McDonald, one of, if not our best marking target, doesn't help. 

Our best football last year relied on a fierce ascendancy at stoppages. Thus by controlling the ball at stoppages and by sheer weight of attack we were able to find a way to goals. However, we lack efficiency when the ball is ours, and are prone to turnovers. Being consistently dominant at clearances is much harder way to win games of footy than being better organised and better users of the ball. Psychologically it also requires key figures who can lead a team dynamic. Teams know that we are inevitably prone to lapses, and that we are more vulnerable without Jack Viney's lead from the front influence. 

Defensively we are too brittle, for periods that last too long. The second quarter was a reminder that teams can open us up when we lose defensive accountability. This is in part of function of the above, and that we struggle to regain possession when our high demand pressure game drops off. 

Selection. It doesn't matter how much Simon Goodwin says he picked Sunday's team on preseason form, any of us who have followed pre-season know that these are 'alternative facts'. How either Dom Tyson, Angus Bradshaw, arguably Billy Stretch and even Tom Bugg were not preferred to Corey Maynard and Josh Wagner (no slight on their efforts) rightfully had most of us baffled. The concern is that this is driven by a mysterious agenda, or at worst that there are personality or political issues at the club.

I know barring a shoelace's influence, Max would've kicked that goal on Sunday, but that would have done nothing to alter my thoughts as above. It's hard to see us beating a hometown Brisbane this week, who showed last year that they can match it with us. On the other hand, we had at least half a dozen players on Sunday who were well below their best, and will hopefully wake up. Based on one telling game though, I'd say we're going to need some luck to make the eight, and some inspiration, and top four is at this stage fantasy land. 

Too soon? 

I think it was simply a decision based on team balance and looking to maximise the strengths of certain players (ie releasing Hunt and Hibberd further up the ground). The problem is, aside from Oliver, Petracca and Gawn (and arguably, but not to my mind, Jones), the majority of the team weren't willing to work hard enough.

Now that is a coaching issue, but the players also have to take most of the responsibility there. The coaches can put the best plans in the world in place, but if the players don't work hard enough to execute it, the plan falls apart.

I don't think anyone could say our forwards worked hard enough for even half of the day. And by early in the fourth term, our forwards were spent.

Let's not look for conspiracies where there are none.

Edited by A F
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Good post webber. Agree with most of your concerns but not your conclusion. Barring major injuries i think we will comfortably make the 8. 

Agree we are rubbish in the air. For me, of perhaps more concern is our woeful kicking (which of course exacerbates the marking issue).

In all seriousness not wanting to  open up the jack watts debate (wanted to keep him but respect and understand the decision and have moved on) but we will seriously miss his kicking skills, particularly his delivery inside 50. That said fritsch looks to have pretty good foot skills 

Edited by binman
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There are two blokes that need to be in that side. Posters know who they are .One hard and one for creativity. Both can also increase our marking capability. Probably outcoached, wouldn't hurt to review that possibility, surprisingly they lasted fitness wise to us. Menzel by himself, easy goals and marks won it for them and by god they were so clean.

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41 minutes ago, ProDee said:

We had a lot of players down.  They also had opponents to contend with.  It is what it is.  It's round 1.  Much will be learnt and competition for spots is hot.

Geelong were beaten in inside 50s by 23, contested possession, tackles, clearances, and lost 3 of the 4 quarters ?  Did they not learn anything over summer ?

It's round 1 and there were positives to take out of the game as well as areas the coaches will address.

GWS flogged Footscray by 80 odd points.  Guess what ?  There will be players and areas of the game they need to improve upon.

Thanks

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One thing I have learned over the years is not to take round one at face value. All sorts of weird results. I’ll wait a few more rounds to see who truly has the form. Out of all the loss permutations for us this was the most tolerable. Shows we are capable but need more fine tuning. 

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PLayed a bog-ordinary second quarter and wasted a shed load of inside fiddy’s.

Fix two things only and we’re a 6 - 10 goal better side.

1.7 in the last!!

We’ll be fine.

Edited by McQueen
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strange thread

no real comment to make except to say come back if we lose to Brisbane ... then our season is in trouble

Need to turn 7-4 to make the 8.

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1 hour ago, ProDee said:

You're reading way too much into one game.  And especially the first game.

They'll learn much from this game, which is the first bit of relevant evidence they've been able to dissect for 6 months.

Possibly and hopefully ProDEE.

  I was interested to compare the attitudes of Sunday with the last game of 2017.  The team seemed on from the start this time .

But... lapse in 2nd  1/4 and my view of poor on-field/coaching box inability to recognise trend and address quickly remains. 

This is the major flaw in the football dept.  The next 3 weeks will define the season.

 

Again... no Viney and I get worried.

 

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51 minutes ago, binman said:

Good post webber. Agree with most of your concerns but not your conclusion. Barring major injuries i think we will comfortably make the 8. 

Agree we are rubbish in the air. For me, of perhaps more concern is our woeful kicking (which of course exacerbates the marking issue).

In all seriousness not wanting to  open up the jack watts debate (wanted to keep him but respect and understand the decision and have moved on) but we will seriously miss his kicking skills, particularly his delivery inside 50. That said fritsch looks to have pretty good foot skills 

Watts - the 2nd best outside 50 pass in the AFL.  Taylor Walker was No.1 last season. Crying shame to lose that key skill set, but he had to go I guess for the FD to make a statement on behaviour..

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The thing with the number of marks is that in contests we seem to prefer to bring it to ground.  We also don’t do the mega chip around and easy marks that the Cats used. They had heaps more disposals because they chip across half back and half forward to find a path, and we just blaze forward at all costs.  This means they got far more marks than us.

our game plan requires frenetic, whole ground defence, with change of angles to create options.  The sky is not falling.  We were out coached for 1/2 of football.  Hopefully we have learned, and will not be left flat footed for a half again.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

The thing with the number of marks is that in contests we seem to prefer to bring it to ground.  We also don’t do the mega chip around and easy marks that the Cats used. They had heaps more disposals because they chip across half back and half forward to find a path, and we just blaze forward at all costs.  This means they got far more marks than us.

our game plan requires frenetic, whole ground defence, with change of angles to create options.  The sky is not falling.  We were out coached for 1/2 of football.  Hopefully we have learned, and will not be left flat footed for a half again.

 

 

No team in the history of football has 'preferred' to bring the ball to ground in a marking contest. They want to mark it, being as it's elementary to maintaining possession. The chipping around difference is one thing, but Geelong held a 13-7 contested marking ascendancy. Any game plan that is built on anything 'frenetic' cannot hold up. It's too hard to maintain, and full of risk.

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The game was always going to be a close one.

Yep another quarter fadeout but we only lost by one little kick.

Dissappointing......bloody oath but too early to worry.

Hogans injury a big worry though.

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I thought your summasition of things was really good Webber. I too find the omission of Brayshaw and Tyson troubling for the reasons you outlined.   I also have real difficulty seeing Maynard and Wagnar as superior choices.... no knocks on either as I thought both were servicable, but Tyson and Brayshaw can both be match winners.  Brayshaw hadnt missed ONE pre season session and in his effort to keep that record intact had his wisdom teeth taken out later than he might have. So theres a real question mark there.  The only thing I might add is that  Lets not forget it was only round 1 and Geelong are a super well drilled team ( defensively and offensively)  and finalist for the last 10 years so we were playing what I consider to be a settled top 4 side. When we worked harder to defend their short game in the 3rd and 4th quarters  it no longer looked like the superior game style .  It wasnt like we faded through all the effort , we were coming over the top of them. 

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