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Webber

We might be in trouble this season.

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There is something to this.

As I’ve been going on about we just aren’t a clean team. That is we fumble, run over the ball and get stuck in contested situations. 

Most of our goals come feel like they come from sheer grunt and not necessarily great skill or system.

This style of play is taxing and could explain the big lapses during games.

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A well thought out post for some good debate. We will learn a lot about where we are at after the next round, however as disappointing I took my positives than negatives for the season ahead. After watching Geelong I suggest add Danger and they are guaranteed top 4. Now consider how putrid we were in the second, we moved the ball forward poorly for most of the game and in the last when we were still running executed 1.7. We had 27 more tackles and 23 more inside 50's than a quality side which would be close to statistically impossible to lose but we still found a way. A couple of minor changes in personnel this week and some tuning of how we bring the ball into forward 50 and how we defend the ball coming out of our forward 50 and the world should look a lot better next round and moving forward. 

Edited by big_red_fire_engine
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We aren't in trouble. Round 1 doesn't mean anything. Just last year a team went from 0-6 to playing in finals. 

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I have been saying for some time (not on here necessarily) that if we are on a premiership journey, this will be 'the year we had to have', ala Richmond 2016 or St Kilda 2017. Not saying St Kilda will win the flag this year but I expect them to be in the 6. Save for inaccurate kicking they would have been in the 8 last year, I have no idea why the media has joined our wagon instead of theirs. The football public and media has extremely short memories.

As to why this won't be our year (I predict a finish of 11th-13th) I can't entirely put my finger on it.

Too much expectation, not enough proven. I think so long as our weapons and best players week in week out have less than 100 or 50 games (Trac, Gawn, Oliver, Hogan), its simply not going to happen. Definitely not in a finals series if we do indeed get there. These players will remain inconsistent and can't be relied upon to win games.

I expect Hunt to regress significantly, Lever to have a very difficult year, Hannan and Jeffy to regress, ANB to regress,as well as a gradual decline in the value of Vince and Lewis and to a lesser extent Hibberd who after a year off will struggle physically with the cumulative effect of 2 seasons plus the pre season.

I see continued improvement from Harmes, Oscar, Brayshaw, Frost and not particularly many others. Viney if he can get on the park.

Add Goodwins second year blues and continued emotional education on how to handle his players, plus improvement across a number of other teams like Freo, perhaps Port,Hawthorn, Essendon and St Kilda as mentioned and I see a 7-8 win season as most likely. 

Tom McDonald will also leave at the end of the year as a FA. 

Despite the above, I think next year will more likely be the one we make a leap, though the key players I mentioned will still be too inexperienced. 

We are told continually progress is not linear yet that is exactly what we are expecting - linear growth.

Some will say this is very negative and I hope I'm wrong on all fronts except the players improving. Just the way I see it. 

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2 hours ago, ProDee said:

You're reading way too much into one game.  And especially the first game.

They'll learn much from this game, which is the first bit of relevant evidence they've been able to dissect for 6 months.

Pro you are eternally optimistic 

I really admire that I wish I could but I cant

I am with Webber. Nothing has changed to make me think  we will win enough games by enough margin  to get in the 8

tenth for me. Wish i saw  it differently I really do.

 

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The way I see it, we'll either finish top 4, or we'll crash epically and will win 5-8 games. There's no in between.

Everything that has happened thus far, if history is any indications, suggests we're in for a long season.

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@Webber - I love a good post that is well thought out and brings together some good debate, even if I don't necessarily agree with a large amount of what you've said.  

It's been discussed in depth already, but I'll reserve my judgement until we've at least gotten to Round 6.  If we hit that point and we're 2-4, or something like that, then we're most certainly in trouble.  At the moment I don't see trouble brewing at all.

While there are some issues with the gameplan (marking, defense, too much handball) there are some real positives with it as well (hitting the scoreboard, inside 50's, tackling etc) that goes with it as well.  I think we would have learned plenty from this game and we can put plenty of that into practice in the coming months.  If we can change a few things, as we did in some respects in the second half on Sunday, then we'll be fine.

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I don't think the press works for us as a game plan. Certainly that was at least the case on Sunday. we were better with a defensive sweeper. Melb have a distinct stoppage and hard ball advantage over most clubs bar arguably Sydney. The press hurts us defensively and offensively. We are better off conceding ground when the opposition wins the ball in their defence which opens up our fwd line to counter attack when we win it back.

The press is harder to defend as the switch from attack to defence happens in an instant ( so if players are napping it's all over), and it's greater area to defend (from the attacking 50 to the midfield vs midfield to def 50). It also appears to take more energy to play this way.

We look the goods when we manage to structure up an open fwd line,  but get strangled when teams flood our fwd line.

 

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3 hours ago, Webber said:

The concern is that this is driven by a mysterious agenda, or at worst that there are personality or political issues at the club. 

Or not.

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Over-analysis! We are over-analysing... 'See Ball, Get Ball' = Viney (when available), Oliver, Petracca, Jones, Jetta, Hunt, Gawn, Hibberd ... Just need to add to the list. I suspect Lever, Brayshaw (when picked), Harmes, Vince, Lewis, Tyson (when picked) also have that factor... then there is 'X-factor' = Fritsch, Hannon, Hogan, Garlett, followed by Faithfull Servants = T Mac, Pederson, Melksham, Bugg... next... Developing/Emerging = Salem, O Mac, ANB, Wagner, Stretch.  I could go on... 'Shown Something', 'The Sky's The Limit'... whatever! This is a good list and these guys are going somewhere great together. Round 1... lost round 1 to Cats in 1964. Now is a time for belief, not half baked analysis that will disappear into the ether by round 4 (my prediction).

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49 minutes ago, praha said:

The way I see it, we'll either finish top 4, or we'll crash epically and will win 5-8 games. There's no in between.

Everything that has happened thus far, if history is any indications, suggests we're in for a long season.

Mate, you are basing that statement on a last gasp loss against a top 4 favorite in round 1.

ROUND 1.

Revisit your post after round 5 or 6 please. If we havent improved by then, i will happily admit you were right and i was wrong.

Go Dees.

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1 minute ago, waynewussell said:

Over-analysis! We are over-analysing... 'See Ball, Get Ball' = Viney (when available), Oliver, Petracca, Jones, Jetta, Hunt, Gawn, Hibberd ... Just need to add to the list. I suspect Lever, Brayshaw (when picked), Harmes, Vince, Lewis, Tyson (when picked) also have that factor... then there is 'X-factor' = Fritsch, Hannon, Hogan, Garlett, followed by Faithfull Servants = T Mac, Pederson, Melksham, Bugg... next... Developing/Emerging = Salem, O Mac, ANB, Wagner, Stretch.  I could go on... 'Shown Something', 'The Sky's The Limit'... whatever! This is a good list and these guys are going somewhere great together. Round 1... lost round 1 to Cats in 1964. Now is a time for belief, not half baked analysis that will disappear into the ether by round 4 (my prediction).

Or, i could have just posted something like this..........................................

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1 minute ago, ding said:

Or, i could have just posted something like this..........................................

or zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz (yawn)

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We lost by a shank against a very, very good side. Were finishing all over Geelong, a marked improvement from last year. Fought back bravely and maintained the rage till the end. Went home happy with the team's commitment. Future weeks can speak for themselves.

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3 hours ago, Webber said:

It's hard to see us beating a hometown Brisbane this week, who showed last year that they can match it with us.

"The Brisbane Lions have now surpassed 2200 days since they were last in the top 8 at any stage. If you exclude round 1, it’s almost 2900 days.(r/AFL)"

We should be able to handle Brisbane, but the above stat is worrying if you're a sufferer of MFCSS. 

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26 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

Hogan in for scans on his elbow... we are now officially in trouble 

Misson made absolutely no mention of this in his weekly injury report.  Nothing story.

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4 hours ago, ProDee said:

You're reading way too much into one game.  And especially the first game.

They'll learn much from this game, which is the first bit of relevant evidence they've been able to dissect for 6 months.

I keep hearing this line, be it from supporters, players or coaches.

I disagree somewhat.

One thing we haven't learnt (and are yet to overcome), are our single quarter meltdowns. 

There are articles floating around with accurate numbers so forgive me if I'm slightly off, but we lost the second quarter against Geelong by around 27 points on the weekend.

Against St Kilda in JLT 2, we lost the third quarter by more if I remember correctly which allowed them right back into the game.

And last year, we had 8 quarters during the year in which we conceded 30 points or more. We lost 7 of those 8 games. 

Whilst it is only round 1 as you and others have reminded us, I find it alarming that over an entire pre-season, this major flaw is still present during games. We had a warning sign against St Kilda in JLT after an entire pre-season in which we should have addressed the issue and two weeks later it happened again against Geelong in a real home and away game.

The third quarter against St Kilda in JLT 2 was the first bit of relevant evidence we'd been able to dissect for 6 months, you're right. It was deja vu. Two weeks later the same thing happened.

Would love an answer. Because it's a consistently worrying theme.

Edited by stevethemanjordan
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1 hour ago, jackaub said:

Pro you are eternally optimistic 

I really admire that I wish I could but I cant

I am with Webber. Nothing has changed to make me think  we will win enough games by enough margin  to get in the 8

tenth for me. Wish i saw  it differently I really do.

 

If this was round 5 or 6 I'd share your concern, but it's round 1.

In nearly all facets of the game we beat a side that played off for a GF berth last year.  And in some relevant stats we smashed them.

For me it's not being a blue sky junkie optimist it's just common sense.  

I well remember Melbourne beating Geelong in round 1 by 11 goals in 1994.  Blight said "it's a marathon not a sprint".  They didn't win the flag that year, but they did play in the grand final.

Way too much is being made of a match we should have won.

That said, please yourself.

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1 minute ago, stevethemanjordan said:

I keep hearing this line, be it from supporters, players or coaches.

I disagree somewhat.

One thing we haven't learnt (and are yet to overcome), are our single quarter meltdowns. 

There are articles floating around with accurate numbers so forgive me if I'm slightly off, but we lost the second quarter against Geelong by around 27 points on the weekend.

Against St Kilda in JLT 2, we lost the third quarter by more if I remember correctly which allowed them right back into the game.

And last year, we had 8 quarters during the year in which we conceded 30 points or more. We lost 7 of those 8 games. We won'

Whilst it is only round 1 as you and others have reminded us, I find it alarming that over an entire pre-season, this major flaw is still present during games. We had a warning sign against St Kilda in JLT after an entire pre-season in which we should have addressed the issue and two weeks later it happened again against Geelong in a real home and away game.

The third quarter against St Kilda in JLT 2 was the first bit of relevant evidence we'd been able to dissect for 6 months, you're right. It was deja vu. Two weeks later the same thing happened.

Would love an answer. Because it's consistently worrying theme.

Perhaps just wait for a larger sample.  

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1 minute ago, ProDee said:

Perhaps just wait for a larger sample.  

Maybe.

Two out of three games so far in to a new season we've allowed it to happen after it happened 8 times last year. A year in which we were second in the competition for conceding most points in a single quarter I believe.

The sample is big enough right now. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Maybe.

Two out of three games so far in to a new season we've allowed it to happen after it happened 8 times last year. A year in which we were second in the competition for conceding most points in a single quarter I believe.

The sample is big enough right now. 
 

 

JLT ?

OK.

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11 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

I keep hearing this line, be it from supporters, players or coaches.

I disagree somewhat.

One thing we haven't learnt (and are yet to overcome), are our single quarter meltdowns. 

There are articles floating around with accurate numbers so forgive me if I'm slightly off, but we lost the second quarter against Geelong by around 27 points on the weekend.

Against St Kilda in JLT 2, we lost the third quarter by more if I remember correctly which allowed them right back into the game.

And last year, we had 8 quarters during the year in which we conceded 30 points or more. We lost 7 of those 8 games. 

Whilst it is only round 1 as you and others have reminded us, I find it alarming that over an entire pre-season, this major flaw is still present during games. We had a warning sign against St Kilda in JLT after an entire pre-season in which we should have addressed the issue and two weeks later it happened again against Geelong in a real home and away game.

The third quarter against St Kilda in JLT 2 was the first bit of relevant evidence we'd been able to dissect for 6 months, you're right. It was deja vu. Two weeks later the same thing happened.

Would love an answer. Because it's consistently worrying theme.

Excellent point.

I have lost track of the amount of times i have read that a loss we just had was one "we will learn from".

Learn what? Implement change how? 

Its like we automatically become better after every loss because its a learning experience. Its a loss. Nothing more, nothing less.

If you learned from defeats, it follows that we must be the most intelligent team in the comp. Nothing could be further from the truth.

 

 

Edited by ding
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1 minute ago, ProDee said:

JLT ?

OK.

Yeh.

JLT.

Where you implement what you've worked on for the entire pre-season and hopefully address some key areas that need improving. Single quarter lapses in our case. We played a full strength team against the Saints. There's not really an excuse if it's been close to an ingrained issue from the year previous.

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Just now, stevethemanjordan said:

Yeh.

JLT.

Where you implement what you've worked on for the entire pre-season and hopefully address some key areas that need improving. Single quarter lapses in our case. We played a full strength team against the Saints. There's not really an excuse if it's been close to an ingrained issue from the year previous.

You're welcome to be a doomsayer.

I just reckon you're one of those knee jerk supporters that panic too quickly.  It's round one.  

No biggie to me. 

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