The Run Home

[JV7 2,354]

The MFC website has posted an article with every potential top 8 sides run home.. Without looking too much into other sides remaining games I thought I'd post our bit out & open up discussion on who thinks what we win & lose (near impossible but worth a shot) 

5. Melbourne

36 points (nine wins, six losses) 110.8 per cent
A hard won but precious four points gained at the MCG on Sunday and the difference between winning and losing was huge – the Demons could have dropped out of the top eight with a loss, had West Coast beaten Port Adelaide. Darwin might not have staged many bigger games than Demons-Crows this Saturday night, and there are still huge games to come against the Power, the Giants and St Kilda. Three of Melbourne's next four games are outside Victoria.

The run home
Rd 17: Adelaide (TIO Stadium) - LOSS

Rd 18: Port Adelaide (MCG) - WIN    

Rd 19: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena) - WIN 

Rd 20: GWS (Manuka Oval) - LOSS 

Rd 21: St Kilda (MCG) - WIN 

Rd 22: Brisbane Lions (MCG) - WIN     

Rd 23: Collingwood (MCG) - WIN

14 wins 8 losses 

Top 14 sides run home here: http://m.melbournefc.com.au/news/2017-07-10/the-run-home-for-the-rest-of-the-season

Edited July 11, 2017 by JV7

[Wiseblood 24,637]

I'm not counting us out of this weekend's game against the Crows.  Their midfield isn't elite, and if we curb the influence of Sloane then it brings them on par with us.  The Crows have a soft underbelly and if we can limit the amount of easy ball guys like Jenkins and Betts like to get then it goes a long way to us winning.

[Bay Riffin 1,479]

2 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

I'm not counting us out of this weekend's game against the Crows.  Their midfield isn't elite, and if we curb the influence of Sloane then it brings them on par with us.  The Crows have a soft underbelly and if we can limit the amount of easy ball guys like Jenkins and Betts like to get then it goes a long way to us winning.

and we smashed them in Adelaide. We could have Watts and Tyson back this and would go in confident.

[Demon Disciple 12,269]

The game after playing in Darwin has always been difficult to recover for, if previous years are to go by.

[Smokey 4,389]

I think all are winnable, although winning them all unlikely.

I'm concerned about playing Adelaide without Jones and Viney, and if we don't get back Watts and Tyson I think we'll really struggle

GWS game will again depend on personnel. With Viney and or Jones back I rate us a sneaky chance (pending no further injuries)

Every other game I actually expect us to win regardless of circumstance.

 

 

[Ouch! 2,266]

If Watts and Tyson are back, I agree that we are a good chance to roll the Crows in Darwin. Interesting to see how we need to line up in defence against the crows... 

I'm more concerned about Port at the G than I am against the Crows in Darwin, Saints game is also not a given!

[monoccular 17,573]

2 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

The game after playing in Darwin has always been difficult to recover for, if previous years are to go by.

Mind you in previous years most games were difficult - just saying.

[bananas 428]

Three games against top four sides.

Three games against bottom four sides.

And the Saints game.

The optimist in me pencils in four wins and hopes for an upset against at least one of Crows, Power, or GWS to (possibly) get us a home final in the first week. If that win comes against the Power, it *may* be enough for us to leapfrog them (despite their percentage) and really challenge for the top four.

But then the pessimist in me sees North and Pies as loseable games, and if the Saints play like they did this weekend then we could easily get done there too.

I was playing around with the Ladder Predictor this morning, and this season is too crazy, with too many possible permutations left, to make any kind of predictions this far out. This season is INSANE.

[BigFez 1,462]

The results of the North and Saints matches will be huge in the context of our season.

We could easily miss the 8.  Get some players back and play well we could make the 4.  This season is too hard to predict!

Not really adding much to the discussion but it's just too hard...

[What 18,810]

We have turned the corner, and we will not lose either of the last two games. Pencil them in (yeah, I know).

We also should easily account for the Kangaroos, but havent beaten them in a decade so Ill hold back on that one for now.

Bottom line is, we are playing finals.  Lock it in.  If we win 5 of the last 7, we will finish 4th.

[Wells 11 5,422]

It could be we finish 4th but it could be we also  finish 10th. Can you ever remember such a season?  Everyone has us for a win against North but we go in with something like 16 losses in a row against them and out two captains probably still missing. Stkilda has smashed us over the years and we got over the pies by under a goal  last time. So I have Brisbane down as the only definite win and the rest of them are question marks. 

Will Hogan find his feet quick enough to impact in the next few weeks? Can Goodwin manage the workload of Smith and Hogan in their returns without exhausting the midfield. WIll testing the mids in this way in Darwin mean Port smash us the following week? Will Watts hamstring recover for Sat or is it still weeks away? How quickly will Jones and Viney be able to get back playing top footy. There's just centimetres and fate in the gap between 4th and 10th really

Im hopeful as hell, but I find predicting impossible this year. One thing for sure is that There will be 2 or 3 teams that feel incredibly unlucky come September....hope we're not one of them. 

[P-man 13,366]

It would be nice to beat the 17th placed side in one of our two attempts this year.

Our inability to beat the kangaroos has gone from frustrating to curious. I doubt I'll even celebrate when we do. It's just something that needs to get done.

[brendan 3,437]

I'm not looking any farther than this week,  could still miss the 8 if things go astray, competition is just way to close 

[armstrong35 262]

All the games left are 50/50 but realistic I see it as:

Crows - Loss

Port - 50/50

North - 50/50

Gws - Loss

Saints - 50/50

Lions - Win

Pies - 50/50

The players can't go into a game thinking we beat them last time or we lost to them last time. Every game needs to be a fresh mind set and that we 100% can beat the team out there that day 

 

[praha 11,240]

1 hour ago, Wiseblood said:

I'm not counting us out of this weekend's game against the Crows.  Their midfield isn't elite, and if we curb the influence of Sloane then it brings them on par with us.  The Crows have a soft underbelly and if we can limit the amount of easy ball guys like Jenkins and Betts like to get then it goes a long way to us winning.

Adelaide is a strange team because they are very good contested ball winners, and very good around stoppages. However unless they go looking for the contact they are easy to push off. The key to beating them imo is setting the standard early and hitting them hard from the onset. With Viney and Jones out this leaves us very vulnerable. Every game brings with it huge challenges. Against Carlton it was in the air and rebounding and they almost beat us. Against Adelaide it'll be the contested ball. We play two of the top three contested ball winning sides in the next two weeks. And there's a lot of travel involved to close out the season. Fact is we've only been soundly beaten once this year and I think the team will be comfortable and settled going into the Crows and Port matches. A steady stream of players returning from injury, and hopefully by Round 22 we have a full strength side.

[McQueen 17,867]

Who knows.

We've got form of winning the close ones and when the chips are down so that's a big positive for us.

Each game is as crucial as the last but I reckon this Saturday night against Adelaide will be another huge mental win for the group if they pull it off. 

Port have been stung by the flat-trackers talk and I think they've become a more accountable team so that'll be a big ask.

North - can we please just beat this mob.

GWS aren't as mentally tough as we are.

Saints - reckon they'll get us this time around.

Brisbane - danger game but should be right.

Pies should be a win but they might turn it on for Buckley in his last game as coach.

[bandicoot 1,395]

4 hours ago, Bay Riffin said:

and we smashed them in Adelaide. We could have Watts and Tyson back this and would go in confident.

Salem, jones and viney were in the top 5 possession getters back then. 

Thats a big hole to fill.

conversely, hogan and Gawn weren't playing which should square the ledger as long as Tyson and watts return.

Adelaide didn't have lever or mcgovern and Betts had a poor game.

they have lost hampton, lynch, Harrington and menzel (form). First 3 are big outs. 

 

Edited July 11, 2017 by bandicoot

[DubDee 26,117]

we play the 3 worst sides in the league and we need 3 wins to make the 8 so unless something catastrophic happens, we will at least limp in to the 8. I predict 4 wins.  if we were playing the saints at the moment, they would roll us as they are in form so I'm glad its not for a few weeks.

Round 17 looms as a preview of our Prelim

Round 18 preview of our elimination final

and round 20 - preview of the GF. where Viney rams scullys head into the turf at the first bounce and we win by 10 goals!

 

**** started off ok in this post and now I've got carried away!!

[leave it to deever 17,517]

The way I figure it is all teams in the present top 4 will be there in Sep and any of the rest could drop out to make way for Sydney.The swans have a fairly easy run home and a healthy %. Some said 11 may get a side a birth this year but its going to be 12.

I'm not that sure about locking the Norf game in as a win with our record against them. This game is certainly a big unknown and I will be upset but not totally surprised if we lose to these pretenders again. Its also at BS arena. Unfortunately I don't think Jones or Viney will be back for this.

The good news is that we are close to a full compliment at the right end of the year (please footy god no more injuries).Destiny at this stage is in or own hands and if we break the voodoo against them (Norf) and beat St Kilda then we are in for sure (assuming we beat Lions) That's 12 wins with a good % and will see us above the saints no doubt.

A pies win and one over port could be top 4 or will be for sure if we win this weekend as well. I do so wish we would stop playing in NT.

Go you good Dees.

Edited July 11, 2017 by leave it to deever

[Tricky 341]

50 minutes ago, brendan said:

I'm not looking any farther than this week,  could still miss the 8 if things go astray, competition is just way to close 

This! In one the more unpredictable seasons I can remember, every minute of every game is going to matter. 

[jackaub 1,402]

We will finish second on 56 points accoding to my local fortuneteller

Bring it on

[Tricky 341]

I'm not usually a fan, but I found Malthouse's article in the HUN rather insightful...

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/expert-opinion/mick-malthouse-says-the-demons-dont-have-culture-issues-but-need-strong-leadership-to-play-afl-finals/news-story/46e9af49fd4c5bee20fd2ec402f4fa43

Quote

The whole club needs to recommit to the cause. Rarely does a club enjoy plain sailing into finals, there is always some readjustment to be made.

 

[sisso 2,580]

You would think we'd have strong motivation to beat the 3 sides we play who cant make finals, teams that are out of contention often drop off badly this time of year.

Usually it's us copping the floggings from finals bound sides, so it's time to dish out a bit of our own punishment. 

[Nasher 33,617]

Every single one of those games are winnable. There's not one there that makes me go "urgh, better write that one off". 

Odds are we'll lose a couple though. Hopefully those are through a tight, high quality arm wrestle where things don't go our way. 

A 14 or 15 win season would be an outstanding result. 

[dl4e 5,851]

Why do people think the North  game is a win. The last 2 are our easiest but the next 5 are all tough.