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Welcome to Demonland: Pick 11


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Dees paid a HUGE price to move up three spots in the draft. Is this why?

The 2021 premiers currently hold picks 6, 11, 41 and 46, the latter received in the Brodie Grundy deal on Wednesday.

It’s believed the Demons are keen to move up the order, potentially all the way up to West Coast’s Pick 1, using 6, 11 and their future first-rounder.

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45 minutes ago, rpfc said:

Then why do we care about PICKS IN THE 30s!

 

beats me!

maybe as we’ve been seen to ‘lose’ this pick trade and we want instant gratification. 

chill people!

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1 hour ago, DubDee said:

zero contradiction. A bloke like Dunstan would have come in as he was killing it at VFL level. Schache was poor even when we were desperate for talls. even T Mac on half a leg the coaching staff had more faith in

youre exhausting to post with but because you are so accusatory and usually wrong it’s hard not to reply

Even just for the ruck chop out for Max in the middle (when resting, instead of a cooked Macca who can't ruck) and especially rucking inside 50 (instead of Macca and/or Tracc and/or no one), it was a no brainer to sub Schache in at half time for Macca.

Dunstan was needed to relieve / assist Viney for at least the North game and even against the Hawks in order to manage him (as the sole 'effective' extractor while Clarry was out) and get him through to finals with something left in the tank.

Viney came in to the QF playing quite well but then bombed out badly in that match.  Backed up by his player rating which was 55% off his H&A season rating vs the Pies.

Had Viney played anywhere near his best we may well have won that match and gone straight through to a Prelim.  Having said that there was alot of 'IFs' for us in that match.

Edited by Demon Dynasty
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16 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

And at the other end of the pole, pick 40 could drop well into the 30s given the vast collections of picks which are going to be cashed for points.

Gold Coast currently have four second round picks and pick 18, which will likely all be cashed.

Bulldogs will probably set themselves with two late second-rounders to build points for Ashcroft.

Hawthorn may well upgrade a second pick into the late 30s to be ready to get Will McCabe.

Plus, Kynan Brown might get bid on in the second round, in which case, well, bugger it, why burn the second-rounder we had anyway when a couple in the 40s will do?

Still, seems a lot to pay to go from 14 to 11.

Point well made about the later picks 27 & 35 coming in, except I think that effect will be minimal, especially for 27. Would expect picks 27 & 35 to be pushed out 5 picks (GC 3 Northern Academy, Hawthorn 1 Father/Son, Western Bulldogs 1 Father/Son) and 27 might come in 1 spot because of GC pick exhaustion although GC will probably be trying to push back even further from 18. Maybe 35 comes in 2 or 3 spots (although even there Caiden Cleary & Will Graham are likely to be taken as Northern Academy before 35). Net effect maybe is 27 & 35 becoming 31 & 38. So 11 becomes 12/13 and is effectively being swapped for 17, 31 & 38. (not 11 for 14, 27 & 35!).

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From the AFL website's article on the Suns trading down of pick 4. After the Bulldogs got 4, there was a frenzy...

"It started with the Demons, who shifted picks No.14, 27 and 35 to get to pick No.11. It continued with the Crows, who gave up picks No.23 and 26 to get pick No.14 and defender Chris Burgess from the Suns."

Interesting comparisons of values;

14, 27 and 35 were worth 11. 14+27+35 = 11

23 and 26 were worth 14 and Burgess - a steak knives at best depth player. 23+26=14

So, if you compress the equations in this draft; 23+26+27+35 = 11

Meanwhile, pick number 4 was deemed worth three mid-late first round picks; 11, 18 and a future first. We've already worked out that 11 alone is worth four second round picks, with three of them right at the start of the second round.

A low-ball estimate would be that recruiters consider a single top-5 pick to be worth as much as seven or eight second round picks.

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11 hours ago, Wizard of Koz said:

This is pro sport not some sort of fantasy league waynk fest. 

I don't think there's any need for that.

 

As for points, they are relevant in that we gave up a pick (35) that we could have used to help engineer the McAdam and Fullerton trades or a trade to get higher in the draft.  Teams giving up high picks value points as a way to assess whether they got a fair and equitable deal.

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1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

From the AFL website's article on the Suns trading down of pick 4. After the Bulldogs got 4, there was a frenzy...

"It started with the Demons, who shifted picks No.14, 27 and 35 to get to pick No.11. It continued with the Crows, who gave up picks No.23 and 26 to get pick No.14 and defender Chris Burgess from the Suns."

Interesting comparisons of values;

14, 27 and 35 were worth 11. 14+27+35 = 11

23 and 26 were worth 14 and Burgess - a steak knives at best depth player. 23+26=14

So, if you compress the equations in this draft; 23+26+27+35 = 11

Meanwhile, pick number 4 was deemed worth three mid-late first round picks; 11, 18 and a future first. We've already worked out that 11 alone is worth four second round picks, with three of them right at the start of the second round.

A low-ball estimate would be that recruiters consider a single top-5 pick to be worth as much as seven or eight second round picks.

In fact the WB/Gold Coast trade was 5, 47 & 52 for 11, 18 and a future first (let's say 13ish, adjusted to 16 after 2024 FA Compensation, Father/Sons, Northern Academy picks)  Let's translate this into what it likely means after Northern Academy & Father/Son Picks:

19+30+38 = 13
27+29 = 19
27+29+30+38 = 13
23+27+29+30+38+2024 16 = 5+49+54

So in reality 5 plus Chris Burgess have been traded for a late first rounder and 4 2nd round picks. Not quite as extreme as you have stated, but no doubt it reflects the thought that the top end of the draft is considered a step above. Points equivalents though are fairly meaningless except for the clubs who are using points to acquire players or the clubs who want to trade picks with those clubs. I think we all recognise that the AFL points scale overstates the value of lower-ranked players. 

Edited by Sydney_Demon
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42 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

In fact the WB/Gold Coast trade was 5, 47 & 52 for 11, 18 and a future first (let's say 13ish, adjusted to 16 after 2024 FA Compensation, Father/Sons, Northern Academy picks)  Let's translate this into what it likely means after Northern Academy & Father/Son Picks:

19+30+38 = 13
27+29 = 19
27+29+30+38 = 13
23+27+29+30+38+2024 16 = 5+49+54

So in reality 5 plus Chris Burgess have been traded for a late first rounder and 4 2nd round picks. Not quite as extreme as you have stated, but no doubt it reflects the thought that the top end of the draft is considered a step above. Points equivalents though are fairly meaningless except for the clubs who are using points to acquire players or the clubs who want to trade picks with those clubs. I think we all recognise that the AFL points scale overstates the value of lower-ranked players. 

Good work, 19 + 30 + 38 for 13 reads pretty well.

Especially if it’s 19+ 30 when 38 wasn’t worth much to us this year. 

Id still like a 3rd live pick in this draft and to turn the list over more with some high upside players but I get why the club is prioritising the top 2 picks. 

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3 hours ago, mo64 said:

If Duursma is that good, he'd be going no. 1.

Personally I'd rather draft 2 of the best 11 kids than someone who's probably rated 4th or 5th best.

Some are saying this year's draft talent drops off significantly after about 8. 

I'd be happy if we tried to get 7 off GCS, either as part of player salary cap dump, or a trade of picks

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5 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

From the AFL website's article on the Suns trading down of pick 4. After the Bulldogs got 4, there was a frenzy...

"It started with the Demons, who shifted picks No.14, 27 and 35 to get to pick No.11. It continued with the Crows, who gave up picks No.23 and 26 to get pick No.14 and defender Chris Burgess from the Suns."

Interesting comparisons of values;

14, 27 and 35 were worth 11. 14+27+35 = 11

23 and 26 were worth 14 and Burgess - a steak knives at best depth player. 23+26=14

So, if you compress the equations in this draft; 23+26+27+35 = 11

Meanwhile, pick number 4 was deemed worth three mid-late first round picks; 11, 18 and a future first. We've already worked out that 11 alone is worth four second round picks, with three of them right at the start of the second round.

A low-ball estimate would be that recruiters consider a single top-5 pick to be worth as much as seven or eight second round picks.

I think Albert Einstein wasted his time developing his theory of relativity and telling us that E=MC squared. We all would have been much better off if he'd used his talents on the mathematics of trading and drafting.

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4 hours ago, Yarra Valley Demon said:

I don't think there's any need for that.

 

As for points, they are relevant in that we gave up a pick (35) that we could have used to help engineer the McAdam and Fullerton trades or a trade to get higher in the draft.  Teams giving up high picks value points as a way to assess whether they got a fair and equitable deal.

Sorry mate next time Ill ask permission in my choice of vocab.

In all honesty to me: Point crunching is a Dodoro thing and actually making the list better is a Jason Taylor thing. As I said they mean nothing to us. It is real pro sport not EA Games is that better?

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27 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I think Albert Einstein wasted his time developing his theory of relativity and telling us that E=MC squared. We all would have been much better off if he'd used his talents on the mathematics of trading and drafting.

You'd need to call Heisenberg.

Draft night is the wavefunction collapse.

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4 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

If we can't get Reid, I hope we get O'Sullivan and another.

I would love Reid, Duursma or Mckercher but that ain’t happening keep 6 and 11 if we can’t trade up then pairing of

Curtin and Wilson

Sanders and O’Sullivan 

O’Sullivan and Wilson

Sanders and Murphy 

may be good

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7 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I would love Reid, Duursma or Mckercher but that ain’t happening keep 6 and 11 if we can’t trade up then pairing of

Curtin and Wilson

Sanders and O’Sullivan 

O’Sullivan and Wilson

Sanders and Murphy 

may be good

Sanders and Wilson would be good, but Sanders and O’Sullivan would fill age gaps more on our list.

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59 minutes ago, Dwight Schrute said:

@dazzledavey36 Do you still have a bit to do the the Bushies? What do you think of O'Sullivan and Wilson? are they good lads?

Yes.

I've given both a decent write up on here. I'll quickly have a search through and find it.

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On 11/10/2023 at 16:49, poita said:

How incredibly dumb. The obsession this club has with stupid pick swaps is infuriating. Let's not forget that Bailey Laurie and Sam Weideman were both taken with pick swaps, so it's not even as though we get decent players from them.

The pick used on kossie was a swap with north. Do you think he’s a decent player. And there are no guarantees with any picks, swapped or otherwise 

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16 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I think Albert Einstein wasted his time developing his theory of relativity and telling us that E=MC squared. We all would have been much better off if he'd used his talents on the mathematics of trading and drafting.

In what universe?

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