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Welcome to Demonland: Pick 11


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1 minute ago, Binmans PA said:

What do you mean?

I'm guessing the chance that Gus is forced to retire and who knows whether Oliver will be in a mental space to play next season.....

I have no doubt we plan to take a mid with our first pick though either way.

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2 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

I'm guessing the chance that Gus is forced to retire and who knows whether Oliver will be in a mental space to play next season.....

I have no doubt we plan to take a mid with our first pick though either way.

Yeah, I'm sure we'll bring in at least one mid and tweak our system at contest if not.

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Pick 11, I believe, becomes pick 16, if you factor in F/S and academy picks, using Cal Twomey's September rankings players may not fall in this order, but you can see how compromised this draft is. Our pick 6 (8) may net us one of Curtin, Sanders or Caddy, with pick 16 a toss up between Murphy, Windsor and Wilson, along with Young Doggie Brown, job done for today. Hard to turn 8 and 16 plus a FF1 into #1.

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2 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Is the growing consensus that we’re no longer realistically after pick 1 but rather packaging #6 & #11 for North’s #3 + something late to get Brown? 

I think we plan to take 3 picks to the draft (including the one for Brown), so I imagine we are trying to get two top 10 picks if possible.

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2 hours ago, Viscount Cardwell said:

Pick 11, I believe, becomes pick 16, if you factor in F/S and academy picks, using Cal Twomey's September rankings players may not fall in this order, but you can see how compromised this draft is. Our pick 6 (8) may net us one of Curtin, Sanders or Caddy, with pick 16 a toss up between Murphy, Windsor and Wilson, along with Young Doggie Brown, job done for today. Hard to turn 8 and 16 plus a FF1 into #1.

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No way the Dogs with Lobb, JUH, Darcy, Naughton take Curtin especially also having access to Croft

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4 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

What do you mean?

If we lost one or both for concussion or other reasons we would be pretty vulnerable. Might make us consider a gun midfielder as opposed to a longer term KPP

Just asking the question

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12 minutes ago, deelusions from afar said:

Are we wanting to draft 2 players plus brown or 2 players including brown?  Or could it be 2 players and try and rookie brown?

I think we have two plans:

Plan 1: Package it up for pick 1 and take Harley Reid, Kynan Brown and then potentially trade in an experienced player.

Plan 2: If no trade is possible for Reid we will take two top 15 picks and K Brown.

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1 hour ago, Pennant St Dee said:

No way the Dogs with Lobb, JUH, Darcy, Naughton take Curtin especially also having access to Croft

I did say that players may not fall in this order, the ranking is from Cal Twoomey !

No way WC will take a real 8 and 16 and ff1 for pick 1, we have no chance of getting it. I hope I am proved wrong.

Edited by Viscount Cardwell
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17 minutes ago, Viscount Cardwell said:

I did say that players may not fall in this order, the ranking is from Cal Twoomey !

No way WC will take a real 8 and 16 and ff1 for pick 1, we have no chance of getting it. I hope I am proved wrong.

If it’s Curtin at 8 it’s effectively the same for the Eagles as 2, 16 and a future first. That’s our best hope.

It’s a bit like when we traded from Billings to Salem on our draft order, the fact that a couple of better and a few far worse players went in between means nothing. 

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5 hours ago, Viscount Cardwell said:

Pick 11, I believe, becomes pick 16, if you factor in F/S and academy picks, using Cal Twomey's September rankings players may not fall in this order, but you can see how compromised this draft is. Our pick 6 (8) may net us one of Curtin, Sanders or Caddy, with pick 16 a toss up between Murphy, Windsor and Wilson, along with Young Doggie Brown, job done for today. Hard to turn 8 and 16 plus a FF1 into #1.

image.png.53cdf93fce88c6eb5992595c0259c201.png

 

Thanks @Viscount Cardwell for this clarification. I was incorrectly thinking 11 would be a significant advance on 14 because we would likely get ahead of the Rogers, Croft & McCabe picks. Cal Twomey had McCabe at 18 in his Sepember List so maybe we'll end up with 15 rather than 16. We  can only hope that some of these picks from Rogers onwards slide a bit. It depends how honest Clubs with picks at those levels decide thet want to keep Gold Coast. Who can forget the ridiculous situation where Collingwood got Nick Daicos at 4? 

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1 hour ago, Viscount Cardwell said:

I did say that players may not fall in this order, the ranking is from Cal Twoomey !

No way WC will take a real 8 and 16 and ff1 for pick 1, we have no chance of getting it. I hope I am proved wrong.

Apologies misread your post but I dont think they’ll take that either. Another pick needed

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1 hour ago, Viscount Cardwell said:

I did say that players may not fall in this order, the ranking is from Cal Twoomey !

No way WC will take a real 8 and 16 and ff1 for pick 1, we have no chance of getting it. I hope I am proved l

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I think the impact on pick numbers might be a bit of a red herring when planning trade/positioning tactics.

There are five players considered first round picks who are not actually available. They won't be available if you have pick 3 and they won't be available if you have pick 33. Quite possible that North would have loved to go Walter & Read for 2 and 3 and get their tall stocks under control.

It does fairly represent the impact of the idiotic Gold Coast massive talent subsidy scheme, though. Feels a bit like the French government paying farmers to burn their crops.

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26 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

I think the impact on pick numbers might be a bit of a red herring when planning trade/positioning tactics.

There are five players considered first round picks who are not actually available.

Exactly. There’s no point saying that “pick 6 will slide out to pick 8 and 11 will become 15” because the point of the draft pick is to select a player and the pool of players you can select from will be exactly the same whether that pick is 11 or if it slides to 15. Drafting isn’t about the picks you have, it’s about the players you (can) select.

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1 minute ago, Axis of Bob said:

Exactly. There’s no point saying that “pick 6 will slide out to pick 8 and 11 will become 15” because the point of the draft pick is to select a player and the pool of players you can select from will be exactly the same whether that pick is 11 or if it slides to 15. Drafting isn’t about the picks you have, it’s about the players you (can) select.

I agree. The only pick which made a difference was the McKay compensation pick which is a new “live” pick, so to speak. It truly pushed everyone back a spot. The academy picks don’t do that. 

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12 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I agree. The only pick which made a difference was the McKay compensation pick which is a new “live” pick, so to speak. It truly pushed everyone back a spot. The academy picks don’t do that. 

Do not get me started on the joke that is pick 3 compo for McKay. I’m still furious how many freebies Norf are getting for their own putrid list mismanagement. 
They played finals not that long ago for goodness sake!

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2 hours ago, Viscount Cardwell said:

I did say that players may not fall in this order, the ranking is from Cal Twoomey !

No way WC will take a real 8 and 16 and ff1 for pick 1, we have no chance of getting it. I hope I am proved wrong.

Except sliding back for academy picks and f/s isn’t an issue…. It’s the compensation picks that hurt and they conclude today. …. WCE don’t get a rats toss if 3 gc academy picks , a bulldog and a hawks bids causes picks to slide down cos the players that that CAN chose from slide down as well... I’m not sure why people wring their hands so much about this.

if Jed Walter and Ethan Reid get bids before Daniel Curtin…. Daniel Curtin slides just like the pick does… he’s not any less attainable at 6 or 8, hence the value of the pick is no less valuable (except for points) but that’s not the concern here.

Edited by Ouch!
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45 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

Exactly. There’s no point saying that “pick 6 will slide out to pick 8 and 11 will become 15” because the point of the draft pick is to select a player and the pool of players you can select from will be exactly the same whether that pick is 11 or if it slides to 15. Drafting isn’t about the picks you have, it’s about the players you (can) select.

Exactly.. these picks are only available to selective clubs and are essentially not available to anyone else 

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31 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Do not get me started on the joke that is pick 3 compo for McKay. I’m still furious how many freebies Norf are getting for their own putrid list mismanagement. 
They played finals not that long ago for goodness sake!

The only one to blame for north getting pick 3 is Essendon offering McKay $800,000 over 6 seasons as if he is a 100+game all Australian. The guy has never played more than 7 games in a single season 

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3 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

The only one to blame for north getting pick 3 is Essendon offering McKay $800,000 over 6 seasons as if he is a 100+game all Australian. The guy has never played more than 7 games in a single season 

I bet my bottom dollar Norf would have got pick 3 for him regardless. AFL finds ways to manipulate the rules constantly. 
As for Essendon, lol at collecting rubbish from every corner of the planet in a sad attempt to win a final after 900 years. 

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2 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

I bet my bottom dollar Norf would have got pick 3 for him regardless. AFL finds ways to manipulate the rules constantly. 
As for Essendon, lol at collecting rubbish from every corner of the planet in a sad attempt to win a final after 900 years. 

Yes, whether you care about NM getting appropriate compensation or not - I think we can all agree that the Bombers sucking warms the heart and we all hope it falls apart.

Amen.

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I'd like to formally apologise for my earlier posts. Yes, when Melbourne traded 14, 27 & 35 for 11 we only gained availability to a player 3 positions higher in the open pool. Whether 11 ends up being 14 with 3 academy & father/sons taken earlier or 16 with 5 taken it makes no difference. I suppose theoretically those unavailable players could come into the open pool if a bid isn't matched but the 20% points discount & ability to accumulate points means that rarely happens.

The only slight caveat now is that 14, 27 & 35 have become 14, 28 & 36 🙂.

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WC need to look at our offer for Pick 1. Next Norf's 2&3, which they wont trade, we  have the best offer. They would be mad to recruit Reid, not because he is a gun or the go home factor. They are in a world of hurt and their club has not even bottomed out yet. Expect WC to be the next Norf asking for priority picks in the next 2 years. They need to stock up on multiple players not a superstar player.

We are no guarantee to finish top 4 next year either so im not gung-ho on throwing our F1 without something coming back our way. If Gus does retire and Oliver is out for lunch chunks of the season, we will be battling for top 8. 

 

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