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The road to Top 4


BoBo

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Ok looking forward for the rest of the season. It’s not a terrible draw, we only play 5 games with clubs ahead of us on the ladder. (Right now it’s Pies, Port, GWS, Essendon) We don’t play Geelong or Sydney again. 
 

So here’s the run from here:

Saints

Freo (home)

Collingwood

North

Brisbane (Away)

West coast (shivers… home)

Essendon

Freo (Away)

GWS (home)

Bulldogs

Port (home)

Gold Coast (away)

Collingwood.

 

13 games left. 
 

currently on 6 wins.

 

We HAVE TO beat:

Saints, North, west coast. 

No excuses with these games. We shouldn’t drop any of these games if we want to finish Top 4. These are the easiest games 
 

So there’s 3 wins we should bank.  

Takes us to 9 wins. 

Less easy:

Gold Coast/Bulldogs

We should beat both these teams. Bulldogs finding some form and Gold Coast scored 164 points against Geelong.

We play Gold Coast away and they almost beat us last time up there from memory… so let’s say we drop that game but beat bulldogs. 
 

Takes us to 10 wins. 

50/50 games:

Freo (twice)/Brisbane/Port

That’s 4 games. 
Brisbane have the wood over us, Port will want revenge and can win during the season and Freo… not confident of winning both encounters. 
 

Can afford to drop 1 of these games. So let’s say 3 wins out of 4.

Gives us 13 wins 

 

Hard games-

Essendon 

GWS

Collingwood (twice)

Soooo, Pies are back and just as flukey as ever, can we beat them once?

GWS are in a lull, but they did this last year about the same time and romped home. I expect them to do that again. They’re a bloody good team.

Essendon are 2nd on the ladder after 10 rounds. The nightmare is real. 
 

Let’s say we win 2 (big if) of these games. 
 

15 wins. 
 

last two seasons that places us:

4th in 2023 or 5th or 6th in 2022.  

We basically have to beat:

North, West Coast, Saints, Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Port, Brisbane and both Freo games.
 

And 1 win out of Pies (play them twice), Essendon and GWS
 

Thats 16 wins in total for the season to guarantee Top 4. It’s an even spread this year so 15 wins might also get us in. Hopefully it’s a crazy season and 14 wins get us in but I wouldn’t hold my breath. 

essentially 4-5 losses and we don’t make Top 4. 

 
This loss to West Coast has really [censored] things up. A lot harder now to make Top 4. 

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One kick difference in a few games over the past few weeks and Essendon or Collingwood are out of the eight and we're in the top three or whatever. No point calling the road to finals right now. 

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Posted (edited)

I think we are in trouble. No this isn't MFCSS. We missed our chance in our prime last two years. Now we look at refreshing the list slightly and look at 2025-2026 in what may be our last time around the sun with May and Gawn.

Brown, McDonald, Billings, McAdam, Petty simply aren't good enough. That they slot into our 22 raises concerns about our depth.

We don't have the foot skills to play possession football and we lack the pace that we had in 2021 to counter and score off turnovers. Eagles have pace and it showed yesterday what a quick team can do if they cut us off at half back. Coaching masterclass from Simpson.

I said after our Semi loss last year that we need to look at a mini rebuild now or we will linger and then crash. Blood as much young talent as possible. Give it a shot. Brown Petty Billings and McAdam in the same side is selection suicide no matter how you look at it.

Our only hope for top 4 is that below Sydney there is a huge gap and so from 2nd to 13th all of those teams can finish top 4. I just don't think we have the "gel" we need to play consistently so far.

Goodwin should look at how Richmond turned it around in 2017. They struggled to score up until Round 16 and then went bang. And this was before Lynch. Make Fritsch more of our focal point.

Edited by praha
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We've made top 4 the last 2 years. I'm confident we can do so again as much because the teams around us aren't that flash hot either.

but i don't think we have the game plan or cattle to win it which is the whole point of making top 4. we just look too far off it at the moment. 

Hope springs eternal though so you never know. 

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Posted (edited)

It's got to the point for us to make top four we will have to rely on other teams dropping games they shouldn't too.

Outside of the Swans it's a very tight season as this round has proved.

Edited by leave it to deever
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Wether we make top 4 or not, we are not winning big finals with a game plan that still is dump long to a forward more often than not, and with those forwards.

Midfield needs to find form. And especially those second in mids like Sparrow need to actually take that next level step. And that goes for Mcvee, Bowey too.

 

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Posted (edited)

Should rename the thread "road to top 8".

We are not playing anywhere near top 4 football as our consistency within games is nowhere near the standard of a top 4 side, since the "Business Trip". The Geelong game being the outlier where we brought fantastic pressure for most of the night, and made the most of our opportunities in a clutch last quarter.

To make finals, and win ONE final, on the back of a terrible pre season, an impotent forward line, a dramatic downfall from our midfield and the loss of depth is our ceiling IMO.

Edited by Bring-Back-Powell
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Posted (edited)

Our season has been solid so far except two games where we have been inexplicably uncompetitive against current bottom 8 sides. To me we are fog bound by too much hubris after some great wins in Adelaide and against the cats. And yesterday it was clear we were mentally unprepared for a switched on and hungry WC. We are being overtaken by hungrier sides that are not necessarily better. Top four is achievable but lack of hunger and killer instinct will likely be our nemeses again. 

Edited by John Crow Batty
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Swans look the goods now but it’s early and being unbeatable in May doesn’t always translate to September results. I do think them and the Pies will be in the GF if I had to put money down now. Pies are building nicely unfortunately. 

Bombers and Port are flakey (as are we obviously). Blues & GWS underperforming at the moment imo. I think we’ll be around the mark for 3rd-6th just on the basis that none of the others are that much better. 

The unfortunate stat is that since 2000 no one has won it from lower than 3rd, except the dogs winning it from 7th. That year was strong though, there was 2 wins and % between 1st and 7th. We’re already 3 wins and % behind first at round 10. 

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A problem for me is the assumed idea ( by some ) that we are entirely the masters of our destiny.  We're not.  It's a game between 2 and that opponent ( each week ) has a very big input into the outcome as has been shown in all games thus far.

As far as top 4 goes we've essentially put ourselves into the need to play "catch up footy" as it were.  We need to not only better our own game but outperform those above us.

This my friends will not be an easy ask. 

The last 2 seasons we proved we weren't up to it when it counted.  The indications to date suggest we won't aspire even to that same level . I'm just trying to be realistic.  It's  not about negativity or positivity, it's about acknowledging what is, is.  We are currently in a very precarious position.

Before the next opportunity to lick our wounds ( round  14  bye ) we have Saints, Dockers and the big day out with the Filth. 

Youd think we should best the Aints ...but how's that thinking working of late ???  I dont particularly like our chances in the other 2 if the last  fortnight is any guide.

The top 8 is not overly spread out just at the moment,  but it is poised to be.

This seasons fate may well be sealed come Kings Birthday if it hasn't already.

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2 hours ago, beelzebub said:

This seasons fate may well be sealed come Kings Birthday if it hasn't already.

The KB game will be a massive stress-test for the mental fortitude of our team. The media will be lathering up the Maynard/Brayshaw background and we all know how the filth supporters get emboldened by that. There will be feeling and physicality on field, and a hell of a lot of aggression from over the fence. Hopefully we can right the ship in the next couple of weeks to go in with confidence.

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Hate to say it but the cliff may be coming, we have been worked out, failed to address our F50 issues and missed out on winning another flag with this group. Need new ideas and Goody harping on contest & defence correct but our so called great mids are getting beaten each week. He ignored tagging Reid and embarrassing to see him push aside Trak & Oliver, lucky to make the 8 

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Posted (edited)

imv we will struggle to consistently be near the top until we get/develop a tall forward.  JvR will get there but we really need one soonish.  Petty maybe.  Jefferson maybe. 

Not sure if it will all come together this year.

 

But as we know KPF don't grow on trees.

Sadly we missed our chance when Peter Wright was traded from GCS to Ess in 2020 for Ess future 4th round pick and just $500k pa for 3 year contract.

In 2020 we traded in BBB which undoubtedly helped us get our flag.  So no probs there.

But, could we have had both?

I don't recall if there was competition for Wright in 2020 - seemed to be on the outer at GCS.  Going on the trade value it seems unlikely.  JT was reportedly keen on him in his draft year (described as Fwd/Ruck).   Maybe we didn't go after him as we had BBB and TMc but their fragile bodies were well known at the time and aging.

Prior to BBB's short lived best years with us Jesse was our true forward and we haven't replaced him.  BBB is a different type of forward and recent recruits are still raw.  The rest have been defenders/ruckman turned forwards.  TMc, Turner, Petty, Smith, Grundy, Jackson etc. 

I guess we pinned our hopes on Jackson staying.

I don't think we can win a premiership without a true KPF.

 

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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3 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

imv we will struggle to consistently be at the top of the ladder until we get/develop a tall forward.  JvR will get there but we really need one soonish.  Petty maybe.  Jefferson maybe. 

Not sure if it will all come together this year.

But as we know KPF don't grow on trees.

Sadly we missed our chance when Peter Wright was traded from GCS to Ess in 2020 for GCS's future 4th round pick and just $500k pa for 3 year contract.

In 2020 we traded in BBB which undoubtedly helped us get our flag.  So no probs there.

But, could we have had both?

I don't recall if there was competition for Wright in 2020 - seemed to be on the outer at GCS.  Going on the trade value it seems unlikely.  JT was reportedly keen on him in his draft year when described as Fwd/Ruck.   Maybe we didn't go after him in 2020 because we had BBB and TMc but their fragile bodies were well known at the time and aging.

I guess we pinned our hopes on Jackson staying.

Don't think Jackson was the answer either.

He was supposed to be mainly ruck and midfield asset.

Did we even try to lure McKay ?

I thought Carlton didn't have enough money for both McKay and Curnow. At least not to pay them both handsomely.

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55 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I guess we pinned our hopes on Jackson staying.

The loss of Jackson has been massive, spewing he left. I still enjoy watching him play though. 

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29 minutes ago, ANG13 said:

The loss of Jackson has been massive, spewing he left. I still enjoy watching him play though. 

And tbh the pick we used on the Weid now stands out like canine whatsits

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19 minutes ago, Fritta and Turner said:

And tbh the pick we used on the Weid now stands out like canine whatsits

Brisbane used pick 2 on the Schac-attack in that same draft - everyone makes mistakes. Both have all the physical attributes, just haven’t gone on with it. 

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34 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

Brisbane used pick 2 on the Schac-attack in that same draft - everyone makes mistakes. Both have all the physical attributes, just haven’t gone on with it. 

It just goes to show that the mindset may just be more important than physical attributes.

Like Curnow, he was considered a bit undersized for the position. But he must be a real competitor to be where he is considering all the injury issues he's had.

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Im not sure how to describe this but I reckon our game built on defence is fine, but occaisonally we get forced back and our solid defence is then occurring around or inside the 50 metre line. We sometimes even go back to that point. We kick short or hand pass out, several possessions, and we are still not at the centre line.  or mids are still in defence and forwards are outside 50.

We often are playing to deep or shallow depending on how you call it.

Our forwards are still not separating and it was obvious against WC how many times two or three of us flew, often spoiling each other and no one in front or behind the pack. I thought Kossie played well against WC but his best work was outside our 50, I like him inside 50 where his presence just creates panic in the opposition and opportunities for him and others.

try and get our forwards to play closer to the goals and our defence to play further from goals, I think thats what  we used to do and I think its what we do when we win.

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On 20/05/2024 at 00:37, BoBo said:


 

So here’s the run from here:

Saints

Freo (home)

Collingwood

North

Brisbane (Away)

West coast (shivers… home)

Essendon

Freo (Away)

GWS (home)

Bulldogs

Port (home)

Gold Coast (away)

Collingwood.

 

 

We play Freo in Alice

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On 19/05/2024 at 16:17, jumbo returns said:

Swans are good - for now

I love June premiers

Still don't reckon we're outta the mix

Scoff away - Wet Toast were due and they had several significant 'ins'

People easily forget WCE have some very handy players. Barass, McGovern, Waterman, Darling, Kelly. 

Reid is incredible

We should be thankful Yeo wasn't playing either. 

Competition is incredibly even. WCE were due, we have to pivot from this switching, keepings off, bruise-free style of play now as it is enabling opposition teams to get a jump on us

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