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Turner

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So noticed this pick didnt have a thread yet so here it is. and for free you also get a collection of players i hope we are looking at in that range. i'm of the belief we will go midfielder as best available at 13 (i want hollands, and ill take his homesick brother in 2 years time too thanks) so these are the guys i'd be talking to, i dont think we will take two generic shape/sized mid types as we've recruited plenty of those recently however we have tended to target talls/smalls either through unnatural pathways (SPP/MSD) or from other clubs unless they've been high end top prospects recently so its hard to tell the clubs thoughts but heres some names anyway

Isaac Keeler H: 198cm W: 88kg -- tall athletic KPF with NGA links to the crows. for me, so much more upside than say Cadman, why you ask because cadman is the biggest body playing against 18yo's only, keeler has shown flashes but has heaps of development, growth and muscle to come. they use the term x-factor when discussing him

James Van Es H: 197cm W: 99kg --tall defender, strong overhead, confident to mark the footy, will be ready in 3-4 years time to take over from may and be really aggressive in the air. 

Lewis Hayes H: 197cm W: 81kg --tall defender, infamous for collapsing on the finish line of the 2ker at the combine but has upside and potential, could be a little passion project for the dev coaches

Lachie Cowan H: 188cm W: 81kg --slingshot rebounding defender, good height but beautiful kick out of tassie, great combination of speed and using it correctly and kicking

Josh Weddle H: 192cm W: 89kg --probably out of range here but players do slide, tested really well for speed and endurance, strong overhead, going to be a player as a rebounding intercepting defender

Darcy Jones: H: 175cm W: 67kg --small forward, super zippy, broke the agility record of 14yrs, small forward but like spargo is a strong midfielder at junior level and would play up the gorund, maybe even as a daniels type HB

Max Knobel H: 206cm W: 91kg OR Harry Barnett H: 202cm W:93kg --the two top ruck prospects, knobel has been growing and putting on weight all year, barnett won their duels during the year, project players

Anthony Munkara H: 186cm W:77kg --linked to essendons nga, he could be anything as a leaping third tall, raw but has serious talent and x factor and knows his way around goals, excites me

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41 minutes ago, Turner said:

So noticed this pick didnt have a thread yet so here it is. and for free you also get a collection of players i hope we are looking at in that range. i'm of the belief we will go midfielder as best available at 13 (i want hollands, and ill take his homesick brother in 2 years time too thanks) so these are the guys i'd be talking to, i dont think we will take two generic shape/sized mid types as we've recruited plenty of those recently however we have tended to target talls/smalls either through unnatural pathways (SPP/MSD) or from other clubs unless they've been high end top prospects recently so its hard to tell the clubs thoughts but heres some names anyway

Isaac Keeler H: 198cm W: 88kg -- tall athletic KPF with NGA links to the crows. for me, so much more upside than say Cadman, why you ask because cadman is the biggest body playing against 18yo's only, keeler has shown flashes but has heaps of development, growth and muscle to come. they use the term x-factor when discussing him

James Van Es H: 197cm W: 99kg --tall defender, strong overhead, confident to mark the footy, will be ready in 3-4 years time to take over from may and be really aggressive in the air. 

Lewis Hayes H: 197cm W: 81kg --tall defender, infamous for collapsing on the finish line of the 2ker at the combine but has upside and potential, could be a little passion project for the dev coaches

Lachie Cowan H: 188cm W: 81kg --slingshot rebounding defender, good height but beautiful kick out of tassie, great combination of speed and using it correctly and kicking

Josh Weddle H: 192cm W: 89kg --probably out of range here but players do slide, tested really well for speed and endurance, strong overhead, going to be a player as a rebounding intercepting defender

Darcy Jones: H: 175cm W: 67kg --small forward, super zippy, broke the agility record of 14yrs, small forward but like spargo is a strong midfielder at junior level and would play up the gorund, maybe even as a daniels type HB

Max Knobel H: 206cm W: 91kg OR Harry Barnett H: 202cm W:93kg --the two top ruck prospects, knobel has been growing and putting on weight all year, barnett won their duels during the year, project players

Anthony Munkara H: 186cm W:77kg --linked to essendons nga, he could be anything as a leaping third tall, raw but has serious talent and x factor and knows his way around goals, excites me

Cheers for your post!

Plenty of food for thought there. 🤔

Apparently Anthony Munkara is about 190cms now?

I certainly like the idea of snaffling him from Essendon as he is their NGA prospect. Particularly after losing Mac Andrew to the Gold Coast last year. 😒

Either way, I have faith in MFC National Recruiting Manager Jason Taylor being able to choose some good young players for us in the 2022 AFL National Draft.

 

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Since the introduction of futures’ trading, the MFC seems to have been a step ahead of others, and then caught in a perpetual cycle. The logic: get a player in a year earlier and keep trading up in the following years. We’ve leaked ‘points value’ on all of those trades though, with diminishing returns as we’ve climbed the ladder. At some stage we need to take a step out for a year and reset. That should be this year. I think we should politely back out of this draft season and bank all our points for next year. That would be our future first, Freo's future first, and whatever we can get sliding 13. Plus a few seconds. 

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6 hours ago, Skuit said:

Since the introduction of futures’ trading, the MFC seems to have been a step ahead of others, and then caught in a perpetual cycle. The logic: get a player in a year earlier and keep trading up in the following years. We’ve leaked ‘points value’ on all of those trades though, with diminishing returns as we’ve climbed the ladder. At some stage we need to take a step out for a year and reset. That should be this year. I think we should politely back out of this draft season and bank all our points for next year. That would be our future first, Freo's future first, and whatever we can get sliding 13. Plus a few seconds. 

Interesting strategy. 

I won’t dismiss it but we already have 4 picks inside 40 next year as it stands…

While getting back into the first round this year and a pick in the 30s and ostensibly making the team better Rd 1, 2023. It’s a very balanced way to go about refreshing the list in the long term with aggressive recruitment while the window is open.

Both Hunter and Grundy are extra hands propping that window ajar.

Its quietly impressive.

Edited by rpfc
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7 hours ago, Skuit said:

Since the introduction of futures’ trading, the MFC seems to have been a step ahead of others, and then caught in a perpetual cycle. The logic: get a player in a year earlier and keep trading up in the following years. We’ve leaked ‘points value’ on all of those trades though, with diminishing returns as we’ve climbed the ladder. At some stage we need to take a step out for a year and reset. That should be this year. I think we should politely back out of this draft season and bank all our points for next year. That would be our future first, Freo's future first, and whatever we can get sliding 13. Plus a few seconds. 

it's mandated that a club use 3 selections every draft. we've managed to position our two live selections as well as we probably could for the time being, so it's likely we use both picks and then chandler upgrade is our last selection

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8 hours ago, Skuit said:

Since the introduction of futures’ trading, the MFC seems to have been a step ahead of others, and then caught in a perpetual cycle. The logic: get a player in a year earlier and keep trading up in the following years. We’ve leaked ‘points value’ on all of those trades though, with diminishing returns as we’ve climbed the ladder. At some stage we need to take a step out for a year and reset. That should be this year. I think we should politely back out of this draft season and bank all our points for next year. That would be our future first, Freo's future first, and whatever we can get sliding 13. Plus a few seconds. 

Totally agree with this. We need to make the best of our two picks this year, without trying to be clever, and then go super hard in next year's draft. Our list will be starting to look pretty old by next year, so it is the perfect time to freshen up with a bunch of high draft picks.

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8 hours ago, Skuit said:

Since the introduction of futures’ trading, the MFC seems to have been a step ahead of others, and then caught in a perpetual cycle. The logic: get a player in a year earlier and keep trading up in the following years. We’ve leaked ‘points value’ on all of those trades though, with diminishing returns as we’ve climbed the ladder. At some stage we need to take a step out for a year and reset. That should be this year. I think we should politely back out of this draft season and bank all our points for next year. That would be our future first, Freo's future first, and whatever we can get sliding 13. Plus a few seconds. 

I think this cycle has another factor, and that's salary cap management. We push picks down the line but need to bring in more cheaper 'rookie picks', which are generally paid less than drafted players. Might only be a small saving, but there's also more chance that a top level draft pick will be paid higher in a shorter amount of time as well, whereas a rookie pick comes in with some expectation of longer development. Pushing more into next years draft means we'll have more higher paid players gone or nearly gone (BBB, TMac, Max, Tomo, May etc. all 2024/25) when they are coming into the period where younger guys need to get bigger extensions. 

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If we do use pick 37 then I'd say we've got 2 or 3 targeted draftees. The danger is if other clubs have their eyes on the same types and get in before us

However, there's a chance that we trade up in the draft as picks (and future picks) can still be traded from now and right up until draft day.  Just not any players, but picks? Yes.  The new ruling came in last year or the year before

So in theory, we could package up pick 37 with one of our F2's to get a pick in the low 20's in this year's draft.  Unless of course we want to keep our strong hand for next year (2 x F1 & 2 x F2)

At a guess I reckon it's 30/70 we trade up from pick 37 this season

The club (and all the clubs) will know which players should be available in the 20's range so if we're tempted, we can act (soon enough) to get a pick in that area

 

Edited by Macca
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23 minutes ago, Macca said:

If we do use pick 37 then I'd say we've got 2 or 3 targeted draftees. The danger is if other clubs have their eyes on the same types and get in before us

However, there's a chance that we trade up in the draft as picks (and future picks) can still be traded from now and right up until draft day.  Just not any players, but picks? Yes.  The new ruling came in last year or the year before

So in theory, we could package up pick 37 with one of our F2's to get a pick in the low 20's in this year's draft.  Unless of course we want to keep our strong hand for next year (2 x F1 & 2 x F2)

At a guess I reckon it's 30/70 we trade up from pick 37 this season

The club (and all the clubs) will know which players should be available in the 20's range so if we're tempted, we can act (soon enough) to get a pick in that area

 

A trade up could happen on draft night if there's someone on our draft list that is available later than we expected. Then maybe 37 + F2nd for a pick in the early 20s.

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20 minutes ago, old55 said:

A trade up could happen on draft night if there's someone on our draft list that is available later than we expected. Then maybe 37 + F2nd for a pick in the early 20s.

GWS could be a trading partner as they've got picks 15, 18 & 19

West Coast have picks 20 & 26

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13 minutes ago, old55 said:

A trade up could happen on draft night if there's someone on our draft list that is available later than we expected. Then maybe 37 + F2nd for a pick in the early 20s.

Was going to say the same. 

I think that's the best move for us. 

13 and an early second for this year's draft and next year we're in a ridiculous position draft-wise for a condending side. 

Let JT work his magic. 

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On 10/13/2022 at 10:54 AM, BigMacjnr said:

Are SA Forwards Tom Scully and Harry Lemmey meant to be available around this pick? Both at some point were ranked as top end talent in this draft. Does anyone with draft knowledge know if they will be around this pick and if they are any good?

The 30’s are probably the starting point for both.

I think Scully’s deficiencies were more exposed the better the competition got. When he was kicking bags, he was much taller than the opposition. He probably lost a bit of confidence as well once he came back to the field.

Lemmey’s an interesting one. He looks to have all of the traits, but just couldn’t get it happening consistently. Not sure if it was confidence loss given expectations, or whether he didn’t have that competitive streak, but he had a very patchy year.

Edited by ChaserJ
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2 hours ago, Click_Bate said:

Pick 13 will become pick 14 after Ashcroft, and lions have another f/s mostly likely after our first pick so 37 will at least drop to 39. Are there any other f/s that might drop that pick further? 
 

after the top 10 the FS and NGA bids tend to slide a bit further out than they are reported to be rated, due to club draft boards differing and clubs wearing of making a club pay rate vs actually being comfortable getting that player should they not match

for these reasons i see the Fletcher bid AND the Alwyn Jnr bid come after the first round in the low 20s

remember also the draft is over two nights so that first pick of the second night (currently 19) will likely to heavily targetted by clubs trying to get THE ONE who slipped out of the first round

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2 minutes ago, Click_Bate said:

Ah, forgot about those 2. So realistically our pick may slide to 41. Sucks if we had planned on hijacking another club’s academy pick like Munkara.  

But doesn't it work the other way - ie if Lions (for example) use picks before 37 to match bids then our pick slides forward?

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I think Phoenix Foster might be worth a look at our pick here.

197cm Ruck/forward from SA who's a great contested mark and has a good athletic profile. He caught my eye in the champs but unfortunately I haven't seen any of his U18 games for Norwood where he has kicked 26 goals in 11 games.

Only just turned 18 last month so might still have some growing to do.

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18 hours ago, poita said:

Totally agree with this. We need to make the best of our two picks this year, without trying to be clever, and then go super hard in next year's draft. Our list will be starting to look pretty old by next year, so it is the perfect time to freshen up with a bunch of high draft picks.

Really another year suddenly makes us look like the Cats!!! Depends upon how they play. But worried we are keeping Melky as younger players may have been better option but JT knows this years strength and depth, 

Once the pre season is over will be very interesting on how many of our younger recruits are really ready for AFL other than JVR. Good Trade choices means both Hunter and Grundy are locks for our best team and Chandler the next best performed ( with Dunstan and possibly Tommo ) to make the team. 

We are still right into the Flag  window more than ever but need fitness and selection to be sharper to back up form and keep all on their toes in 2023. 

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I tried this exercise with the Pick 13 thread to help in understanding this discussion in context. This is a look at the last five drafts and the choices made at around this selection.

2017 

36. Charlie Constable (Geelong)
37. Harry Petty (Melbourne)
38. Jack Petruccelle (West Coast)
39. Nathan Murphy (Collingwood)

2018

36. Tom Berry (Brisbane Lions)
37. Laitham Vandermeer (Western Bulldogs)
38. Irving Mosquito (Essendon)
39. Jarrod Cameron (West Coast)

2019

36. Elijah Taylor (Sydney) 
37. Keidean Coleman (Brisbane Lions)
38. Nick Bryan (Essendon)
39. Chad Warner (Sydney)

2020

36. Charlie Lazzaro (North Melbourne)
37. Corey Durdin (Carlton)
38. James Rowe (Adelaide)
39. Josh Eyre (Essendon)

2021 

36. Jake Soligo (Adelaide)
37. Rhett Bazzo (West Coast)
38. Miller Bergman (North Melbourne)
39. Blake Howes (Melbourne)

Another Harry Petty or Chad Warner would be a handy addition to the list.

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