Run home to Finals - 2018

[Tony Tea 2,809]

Limping into 10th, more like.

[btdemon 482]

When I studied the fixture earlier I was of the opinion that it was tough and if we made the finals we would deserve to be there. Like most of us, I started to think we were better than we are and we beat many of these teams leading up to the last round. I’m back to thinking we’ll struggle and if we make it it will be after beating some good teams. If so, then we’ll deserve it. List wise there are still pieces missing

[dl4e 5,851]

22 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

 

Either we make it, or some heads should roll. It’s sad enough that after what happened last year, our best case scenario is now limping into the 8! Where is the hunger?!

As a club we are mentally weak. This is and has been the biggest problem at the MFC. Overcome this weak mentality and we will start to see things happen. You are right though if we don't make the 8 this year then some heads will have to roll.

[doc roet 1,287]

Hate to say it but i think essendon will do us out of our place in the 8.  They have hit a bit of form of late only losing to Richmond in the past 6 weeks, and beating geelong,west coast,north, gws &the lions. If they get over Collingwood on the weekend look out. They seem to have their siht together and watching the game last week they put in hard.

Now I'll go and be sick.

 

[binman 42,967]

1 hour ago, btdemon said:

I’m back to thinking we’ll struggle and if we make it it will be after beating some good teams. If so, then we’ll deserve it. 

I think this is a really good point.

We have a pretty tough run home, but only 4 games against top 8 sides (actually 3 - cats, swans and wc, but for the sake of argument lets include crows in Adelaide).

If we are a serious finals side then we win two of those sides at a minimum. If we can't, well  were not up to finals standard pure and simple.

[Lucifers Hero 39,806]

We aren't the only ones with a difficult run to make finals.  How the contenders shape up:

 

The Pies and Sydney have the toughest run.  Both have quite a few injuries and I'm counting 5 of their 7 games to be 8 point games.  So I reckon spots 2 to 5 could change quite a bit.

While Adelaide and Ess are effectively out of the running they can still mess up the Wins/Losses for the contenders.  Wouldn't mind it if the young Lions pinch a game here or there!

I reckon we will make it:

• wins vs WB, Adel, GCS. 
• Geelong is 50/50.  They are playing poorly and their narrow ground suits our game plan (altho they will have an extra two days rest). 
• WCE and GWS are also 50/50 depending on how many of their injured players are back at the time we play them.
• Sydney is a loss for mine.

Unless North completely lose the plot their very easy run will get them in.  Ditto Hawks. Who drops out of the 8 for North.  Demons or Cats?

We must beat Geelong to get a game up on them.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[chook fowler 19,459]

I think our loss to St Kilda will bite us on the arse like the loss to Carlscum did last year. The saving grace is our percentage. 

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/latest-afl-run-home-predicted-final-ladder-and-finals-series-projections-round-16-2018/news-story/dedbf34cd6484fe59f4769a6dbb7fc20

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

The St Kilda loss will be significant one way or another , it is either a kick up the bum that gets us going with momentum or it could be like nth Melbourne rd19 2017 loss in Hobart that cost us 

% is good now , much better than last year,  but so are the cats% , % will help against norf and probably the dorks, Giants have a draw but crap % 

I think we can get 4-5 wins if we hold our nerve over the next 3-4 weeks particularly if nth and the giants drop games with their hard draw - that I think would see us in the 6-8 bucket depending on % 

[Demonland 72,192]

12 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

I think our loss to St Kilda will bite us on the arse like the loss to Carlscum did last year. The saving grace is our percentage. 

We didn’t lose to “Carlscum” last year.

That was the year before.

[Delusional demon 82 1,197]

2 minutes ago, Demonland said:

We didn’t lose to “Carlscum” last year.

That was the year before.

No your right , that was the norf losses last year , I remember the demonland server couldn’t cope and was offline for about 12 hours after the loss in Hobart  - nowhere to vent after that loss ?

[Lucifers Hero 39,806]

36 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

I think our loss to St Kilda will bite us on the arse like the loss to Carlscum did last year. The saving grace is our percentage. 

The past is done and dusted.  The St Kilda loss is the most glaring hiccup on this year's finals charge but other winnable losses also hurt.

Bottom line is making the 8 is still in our control.

[chook fowler 19,459]

43 minutes ago, Demonland said:

We didn’t lose to “Carlscum” last year.

That was the year before.

My bad. The Alzheimer’s is playing up. I’ll take an extra dose of aricept. But you get my drift - stupid losses may well cost us dearly.

[sisso 2,580]

Surely this is the year we finally get there, isn't it?? There's been some terrible inconsistencies but honestly if this team with only 1 best 18 player out injured doesn't play finals...well....its the sign of the apocalypse! (on Demonland at least)

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

30 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

The past is done and dusted.  The St Kilda loss is the most glaring hiccup on this year's finals charge but other winnable losses also hurt.

Bottom line is making the 8 is still in our control.

Last season Richmond broke their fickle inconsistency after their upset loss to the Saints in Round 16. Perhaps an omen? Fingers crossed.

[bandicoot 1,395]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

We aren't the only ones with a difficult run to make finals.  How the contenders shape up:

The Pies and Sydney have the toughest run.  Both have quite a few injuries and I'm counting 5 of their 7 games to be 8 point games.  So I reckon spots 2 to 5 could change quite a bit.

While Adelaide and Ess are effectively out of the running they can still mess up the Wins/Losses for the contenders.  Wouldn't mind it if the young Lions pinch a game here or there!

I reckon we will make it:

• wins vs WB, Adel, GCS. 
• Geelong is 50/50.  They are playing poorly and their narrow ground suits our game plan (altho they will have an extra two days rest). 
• WCE and GWS are also 50/50 depending on how many of their injured players are back at the time we play them.
• Sydney is a loss for mine.

Unless North completely lose the plot their very easy run will get them in.  Ditto Hawks. Who drops out of the 8 for North.  Demons or Cats?

We must beat Geelong to get a game up on them.

 North easy? Sydney, Collingwood, Adelaide and west coast. Could lose all 4

[Neil Crompton 5,560]

I think it will take 14 wins plus percentage to make the 8. 

If we make it, it will mean that we have beaten a number of the top 8 teams in the run home. Therefore I would expect to do some damage in the finals.

However, current form might suggest that we end up one win short of the 8. 

[Jaded No More 68,915]

We beat West Coast in Perth last year and I expect we will need to do the same this year to make finals. Either that or we need to beat Geelong in Geelong. Both are going to be hard tasks, especially when the umpiring inevitably goes their way.

[DeleteUser 638]

12 minutes ago, Jaded said:

We beat West Coast in Perth last year and I expect we will need to do the same this year to make finals. Either that or we need to beat Geelong in Geelong. Both are going to be hard tasks, especially when the umpiring inevitably goes their way.

Are Darling and Kennedy slated to return by then

I think we could very well lose to the Dogs. We are a great team for poor/lower teams to turn up against and beat to snuff out finals hope.

Suns - W

I think we're a good chance against Radelaide

Timbo's hopefully optimistic (optimistically hopeful?) run home

Dogs -L (but then that is just MFCSS)

Cats - L (I honestly can't see us winning this)

Crows - W

Suns - W (by lots)

Syd - W (but then it could easily be a 50 point loss because the MCG)

Eagles - L (Gaff to get 48 possessions or else if he's signed with us a quiet game) but then who knows!

GW$ - W

13 wins, miss the finals.

Ugh!

[DubDee 25,866]

there is a chance that even if we continue our average form we will still make it.  The Roos are not great imo and have a tough run, will probably end up on 12 wins and low %.  GWS if they do well will have 12.5 wins and average %

so I reckon 13 wins will do it, unless Roos or GWS really turn things around

[bandicoot 1,395]

47 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

I think it will take 14 wins plus percentage to make the 8. 

If we make it, it will mean that we have beaten a number of the top 8 teams in the run home. Therefore I would expect to do some damage in the finals.

However, current form might suggest that we end up one win short of the 8. 

14 wins??? That hasn’t happened since we had 18 clubs. 23 will be sufficient 

[Gorgoroth 12,950]

15 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

14 wins??? That hasn’t happened since we had 18 clubs. 23 will be sufficient 

23 is impossible to get ?

[sisso 2,580]

42 minutes ago, timbo said:

Are Darling and Kennedy slated to return by then

I think we could very well lose to the Dogs. We are a great team for poor/lower teams to turn up against and beat to snuff out finals hope.

Suns - W

I think we're a good chance against Radelaide

Timbo's hopefully optimistic (optimistically hopeful?) run home

Dogs -L (but then that is just MFCSS)

Cats - L (I honestly can't see us winning this)

Crows - W

Suns - W (by lots)

Syd - W (but then it could easily be a 50 point loss because the MCG)

Eagles - L (Gaff to get 48 possessions or else if he's signed with us a quiet game) but then who knows!

GW$ - W

13 wins, miss the finals.

Ugh!

That would be the worst of all possible chokes if we don't get up this week! They have about 10 kids under 50 games in their side and their best player in Bont is crippled by a bad hip and can barely run....

[Sir Why You Little 37,036]

Still 7 Rounds to go. To early to predict the 8 this year. 

If the MFC keep winning, we make it. With our injury list, there is no excuse. 

If we don’t make it, this list of players and coaches are still affected by the MFC “weakness”

regardless of what ProDee has to say,

our history both near and far holds us back

The Cord must be cut

[DeleteUser 638]

6 minutes ago, sisso said:

That would be the worst of all possible chokes if we don't get up this week! They have about 10 kids under 50 games in their side and their best player in Bont is crippled by a bad hip and can barely run....

Hmmm.

Chokes.

The MFC

Hmmmm

?