MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 14

[Demonland 72,180]

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS by Whispering Jack

The two sides facing off against each other this Saturday night in the west have a number of things in common if their most recent games are any guide. In Round 13, they both beat highly fancied opposition teams using relentless pressure applied throughout their respective contests. Their players swarmed around opponents and worked together, corralling them and tackling strongly to force submission. At the end of their games, the West Coast Eagles were back on the winning list with a victory over third placed Geelong while Melbourne had thrashed the reigning premier.

This week the teams, which each hold 7:5 win-loss records, meet at Domain Stadium in a vital clash. The winner will be within close range of a coveted top four placing and possibly even inside that group, depending on other results. The importance of the game will therefore add to the pressure cooker atmosphere for both sides.

The home team is the starting favourite. Not many can remember the last time that Melbourne won a game on this side of the continent and most of its recent visits have been unmitigated disasters. The record shows that it has lost 16 consecutive games in Perth with the last victory recorded there in 2004. 

The Demons are coming off the second of three successive six-day breaks and have lost one of their skippers, the seemingly invincible Nathan Jones, whose presence in the team contributes greatly to the enormous grunt that has caused observers to describe them as one of the toughest sides in the competition. The odds seem to be stacked against the visitors.

On the other hand, last week's breakthrough game against the Bulldogs was something else. It indicated that this Melbourne team is different to everything we've come to expect from the red and blue over the past decade. We've expected losses at Etihad, we've expected defeats after strong performances like the one it produced on the Queens Birthday and we've expected the team to come home from Perth empty-handed for so long that we can't comprehend any other result.

However, the Eagles' dominance at Domain Stadium can no longer be taken as a given. Certainly, they beat the Cats there at their last encounter but their form before that was shaky. They lost there to a badly depleted GWS, just scraped home against the out-of-form Western Bulldogs and in between, crashed away from home to Essendon and Gold Coast.  

The Demons' last two visits to Perth have been interesting. They did everything but win their Round 18 encounter in slippery conditions against an accurate West Coast that had the rub of the green with some very fortunate umpiring decisions in the close final quarter. They traveled there again in the pre-season and were highly competitive in their JLT game but sagged in the heat at the end of the game. 

But the team is building and recently has made a practice out of breaking hoodoos. This week, they will be up for yet another challenge made more difficult by the added obstacle of the six day break and the necessity of making changes to the way the team lines up on a ground way different in dimension to that of Etihad and with a more hostile crowd egging on their home town heroes. The pressure will be high.

THE GAME

West Coast v Melbourne at Domain Stadium, Saturday 24 June, 2017 at 7.40pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall West Coast 33 wins Melbourne 15 wins

At Domain Stadium West Coast 15 wins Melbourne 5 wins

Past five meetings West Coast 5 wins Melbourne 0 wins

The Coaches Simpson 0 wins Goodwin 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel, Channel 7 live at 7.30pm

RADIO - SEN

THE BETTING

West Coast to win - $1.42 Melbourne to win - $2.90

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

West Coast 10.6.66 defeated Melbourne 8.12.60 Round 18, 2016 at Domain Stadium

West Coast survived a major scare from an inaccurate Melbourne in the game played in slippery conditions at Domain Stadium. The Demons led by six points at three-quarter time but the Eagles booted two unanswered goals in the final term to run out winners by a single goal.

THE TEAMS

WEST COAST EAGLES

B:  Shannon Hurn, Eric Mackenzie, Will Schofield 
HB: Thomas Cole, Tom Barrass, Brad Sheppard 
C: Andrew Gaff, Matt Priddis, Elliot Yeo 
HF: Lewis Jetta, Jack Darling, Dom Sheed 
F: Liam Duggan, Jeremy McGovern, Drew Petrie 
FOLL: Nathan Vardy, Sam Mitchell, Luke Shuey 
I/C: Jamie Cripps, Josh Hill,  Mark Hutchings, Malcolm Karpany 
EMG: Chris Masten, Jack Redden,   Sharrod Wellingham  

IN: Josh Hill, Malcolm Karpany

OUT: Mark LeCras (hip), Jackson Nelson (hamstring)

MELBOURNE 

B: Neville Jetta, Oscar McDonald, Michael Hibberd 
HB: Jayden Hunt, Sam Frost, Jordan Lewis
C: Jake Melksham, Clayton Oliver, Christian Salem
HF: Christian Petracca, Cam Pedersen, James Harmes
F: Jeff Garlett, Tom McDonald, Mitch Hannan
FOLL:  Max Gawn, Bernie Vince, Jack Viney
I/C: Tomas Bugg, Alex Neal-Bullen, Billy Stretch, Dom Tyson
EMG:  Ben Kennedy, Josh Wagner, Sam Weideman

IN: Max Gawn, Billy Stretch

OUT: Nathan Jones (quadriceps), Jack Watts (hamstring)

You have to go back all the way to 2006 when Melbourne had a better win-loss ratio at the equivalent stage of the season and even then it was only marginally better at 8:4. The Demons were the best performed Victorian team in the competition at the end of that year but it wasn't enough to see them in a preliminary final. They have reached this stage thanks to a rare vein of consistent form - at least for an  AFL team 2017 style. With three consecutive wins another on Saturday night in Perth against the West Coast Eagles would just about earn them the title of "the real deal".

The stumbling block, aside from the necessity of interstate travel six days after their last game against the Bulldogs, is the loss of two vital in-form players in skipper Nathan Jones and Jack Watts who has produced some stellar performances up forward with the occasional pinch hit in the ruck in the absence of All Australian ruckman Max Gawn who returns this week after almost three month's absence. 

But the Demons have no cause for complaint with respect to injuries because West Coast has been hit equally hard by injury and some poor form from key players has added to the Eagles' plight. Nick Naitanui has yet to recover from his ACL injury while his back up, Scott Lycet, dislocated a shoulder earlier this year in his comeback game from a knee injury and is struggling in the WAFL. Forwards Josh Kennedy and Mark Le Cras, who always manage to get among the goals against Melbourne, are also both out injured. Compounding the injury woes is the fact that the form of Chris Masten, Jack Redden and Sharrod Wellingham has been poor so that they are struggling to get back in the team. Notwithstanding, the Eagles were good enough to dispose of the Cats on their home turf so they can't be taken lightly.

Melbourne's fast flowing style and it's pressure game was impressive last week but it must now repeat the dose on the longer ground in Perth. If it can navigate its way around that arena and come up with  another major scalp, it will emerge with the world at its feet. 

I think this Demon team can do that and revive those heady days of 2006. 

Melbourne by 10 points.

[jackaub 1,402]

Who is in for Jones just  Gawn or do we make 2 changes

Time for Viney to really show leadership

Hope Jones is out for only 4 weeks and not 6  yes folks it is the dreaded 4-6

[praha 11,240]

Losing Jones (or any mid for that matter) is perhaps the most manageable as we're playing with fillers across the ground. IMO Jones is the most replaceable of all the main mids but at the same time we can't understate his presence. This is why we got guys like Lewis and Vince into the squad and imo Lewis needs to play the best game of his time at the club.

We could probably afford a straight swap for Gawn - Jones. Wouldn't be surprised if some players of the ANB variety are "managed" and we bring in a JKH or Stretch.

Something tells me though that Goodwin isn't massive on Stretch atm and JKH is a likely in for ANB. That's not to say ANB deserves to be dropped but it might just be a matter of fresh legs.

[binman 42,935]

1 hour ago, jackaub said:

Who is in for Jones just  Gawn or do we make 2 changes

Time for Viney to really show leadership

Hope Jones is out for only 4 weeks and not 6  yes folks it is the dreaded 4-6

Are you saying viney has not yet shown 'true leadership'?

[jackaub 1,402]

No i am saying its a big responsibility for him also he is still young and focussed on his own game.To answer your question

Yes he does but it will be a significant test imo.

 

[DemonOX 8,791]

JT in for Jones

Gawn in for ANB (rested). 

If Watts/hibbo doesn't come up bring Wags in. 

[jumbo returns 6,741]

Jones is a massive loss

[Maldonboy38 6,402]

Jones out is a huge loss. Probably Wagner or JKH in for him. I stil, can't figurenout who to exchange for Gawn. The only one I can think of is Vince, but he has never been dropped for poor form. 

[hardtack 10,537]

I wouldn't be surprised if Watts is rested, in which case I imagine Pedersen would be moved forward with Gawn coming back in. Wagner could come into the back line and Salem moved to the midfield to help cover the loss of Jones. 

[Daily Dose of Demons 155]

I reckon it will be a closely contested first half. But then after the first half Gawn will have blown out the cobwebs and we will come out in the second half and blow them away!

We are back!

[Wiseblood 24,637]

4 hours ago, jumbo returns said:

Jones is a massive loss

 

4 hours ago, Maldonboy38 said:

Jones out is a huge loss. Probably Wagner or JKH in for him. I stil, can't figurenout who to exchange for Gawn. The only one I can think of is Vince, but he has never been dropped for poor form. 

Very true, and it will hurt us in many ways across the board, but I think we are well placed to cover him as much as we can.  With Gawn returning, it will allow Pedo to play forward which may in turn release Trac to spend more time in the midfield.  That doesn't necessarily mean Jones is covered, but we have the personnel and the game plan to survive.

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

I feel people have short memories on here. JKH was deplorable when he had his chance. A good VFL player but that's about it unfortunately. 

[DubDee 25,858]

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

West Coast 10.6.66 defeated Melbourne 8.12.60 Round 18, 2016 at Domain Stadium

 

had forgotten about this game.  good to see we are building up a rep for being able to play well away from home.  nothing to be afraid of. Let's smash the soft Westerners!

[loges 6,767]

Open training tomorrow 10.45 Gosh's Paddock

[Gorgoroth 12,950]

Kennedy out for Eagles?

https://www.zerohanger.com/just-kennedy-another-month-13294/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=AFL+Memes

 

Not sure how reliable. 

Edited June 21, 2017 by Gorgoroth
Added source

[Glenn Molloy 494]

Jones is a bigger loss than some on here realise - has had a fantastic year, up until two weeks ago he was one of five mids in the comp that had averaged over 25 disposals and a goal.  He's not easily replaceable but we have some guys in the twos who can at least come in and play his role to an extent.

I reckon we can knock them off - their first half last week was good but Geelong were off colour, and still could have won halfway through the last quarter.  We absolutely dominated that game last year and should have won it by 3-4 goals.  Our midfield is tougher and deeper than theirs,  It certainly won't be easy with a couple of big outs and another 6 day break but given that they don't have Kennedy (and of course still miss Nic Nat), we really can't complain about availability.   Dees by 2 goals.

[Jaded No More 68,915]

Umpires will play a big role in this game, and it won't be in our favour.

Just going in prepared for a one sided umpiring display. 

[daisycutter 29,613]

Saturday 24 June

Summary

Min 7

Max 19

Partly cloudy.

Possible rainfall: 0 mm

Chance of any rain: 20% 

Perth area

Partly cloudy. Winds southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h becoming light during the afternoon.

[Ethan Tremblay 30,858]

The Beatles last came to Australia in 1964, the same year we won the Grand Premiership. I note that Sir Paul McCartney is touring Australia this year, could it be that he is the cursed one and not Norm, and his planned trip will break the curse? 

Lift the curse Paul, lift the curse. 

Edited June 21, 2017 by Ethan Tremblay

[CanberraDemon 214]

Am I the only one thinking Watts must be out otherwise he would have been in front of the media and/or on MelbourneTV ahead of his 150th game this week?

[old dee 23,790]

8 hours ago, hardtack said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Watts is rested, in which case I imagine Pedersen would be moved forward with Gawn coming back in. Wagner could come into the back line and Salem moved to the midfield to help cover the loss of Jones. 

Agree 100% hardtack.

So that will mean none of that happens!

well Gawn is in I guess.

[old dee 23,790]

1 hour ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

The Beatles last came to Australia in 1964, the same year we won the Grand Premiership. I note that Sir Paul McCartney is touring Australia this year, could it be that he is the cursed one and not Norm, and his planned trip will break the curse? 

Lift the curse Paul, lift the curse. 

I thought I was desperate ET but you have left me in your dust.

[Willmoy1947 4,086]

3 hours ago, Jaded said:

Umpires will play a big role in this game, and it won't be in our favour.

Just going in prepared for a one sided umpiring display. 

Couldn't be happier with the umps at the moment. they are getting used to our game, hopefully notwithstanding Max......

[DeeZone 9,835]

4 hours ago, Jaded said:

Umpires will play a big role in this game, and it won't be in our favour.

Just going in prepared for a one sided umpiring display. 

Have we ever won the free kick count in WA, I feel your pain!!!

[Gator 17,332]

The following is a preview from a Bigfooty West Coast supporter.  Worth a read.

Saturday 5.40pm at Subiaco Oval we get to see the next instalment in the mystery that's become our 2017 season as we wait to see what the real Eagle's side is. The meek and mild nice guys like this

 

and this

 

Or the unsociable campaigners that we've seen every now and then like this

 

and this

 

So who do we have to beat into submission or roll over and let rub our tummy?

Melbourne (7-5, 115.7%, 5th)

The Demons come into this game as one of the two form sides of the competition along with Sydney winning 4 of their last 5 matches with wins over Adelaide (in Adelaide), Gold Coast, Collingwood and the Bulldogs interrupted by a loss to North Melbourne. They hold the current longest unbeaten streak having won their last 3, a run that was capped with their best win of the season - a 57 point demolition of the reigning premiers at their preferred Etihad stadium

On the face of it they've been a pretty consistent side in 2017. Their losses have been by 2,3,13,14 and 29 points (when they kicked 13.19 to Geelongs 20.6). Apart from their 4 point win over Collingwood their wins have been by 22 points or more with their 57 point victory last week their biggest win.

Within games though they've been remarkably inconsistent with regular violent shifts in momentum - all but 2 of their games have featured a 5+ goal shift, 3 of them have seen a 10 goal turnaround after Melbourne fell behind early only to run over the top of their opponent. Ominously, two of the biggest shifts were outside Victoria when they came back from a 28 point deficit against Adelaide to win by 41 and did a similar job on Gold Coast in Alice Springs.

In fact, they are the only team with a 100% strike rate outside their home state albeit they've only travelled twice and one of those was a "home" game in the NT. (As an aside this game is only the second (and last) time they leave Victoria to play an opponent on their home ground - they travel to Darwin to play the Crows and have the Kangaroos in Tassie. Five road trips, 3 at a neutral venue, must be tough)

So based on current form and strong away performances the trip west shouldn't hold any fears for the resurgent Dees, especially since they pushed us all the way last year and arguably deserved to win having won all the major stats apart from the one that counts most. But,

1) Melbourne have lost their past 17 visits to our ramshackle home stretching back to 2004 and
2) Collingwoods Queens Birthday choke (they led by as much as 31 points) masks what would other wise be a longer term WLWL pattern stretching back to Round 4 - reverse their own choke against Fremantle and it stretches back to Round 2. On that pattern they're due a loss.

West Coast (7-5, 102.6%, 7th)

For the most part we've been relatively consistent as well in our own way. On the road we suck (North and Port games aside) and at home we still kinda suck but not bad enough to lose with the exception of the Giants game. Where we previously became accustomed to bringing out the heavy roller for home games to earn our flat track moniker, this year our home wins have been by more pedestrian margins of 19, 26, 41 (lol Freo), 8 and 13. A streak that for any journo with more brain cells than your average turnip would put to rest any notion of us being flat trackers anymore (Hi Damo, you eggplant)

Again, like Melbourne, we come into this game on the back of our best win of the season. The 13 point margin belies what was a very strong showing against an in-form opponent, which flattered a side that had earned the rare distinction of starting a game against the Eagles at Subiaco as favourites. In the end the margin was of far less importance than the way in which it was achieved. There was a genuine hard edge on display and an intent across the entire 22 that hadn't really been sighted from this group in 2017

It was the sort of effort that masked/overcame the sides structural deficiencies that had been exposed in not only the three consecutive losses preceding the bye but earlier defeats at the MCG to Richmond and Hawthorn. Whether that level can be maintained will go a long way to determining if we win on Saturday, because without it I doubt we'll Houdini this one like we did last year

Changes

Melbourne haven't bothered with any smoke and mirrors as such. Gawn was announced as a virtual certain starter this week even before they ran out last week and the Melbourne mids will relish his return after weeks of roving to a makeshift ruck division led by the undersized Pedersen. However, in the yin and yang of AFL, Melbourne get Gawn back but lose inside workhorse Nathan Jones to a quad injury that will weaken a still strong on-ball brigade. Doubts over Watts seem to have been put to rest but there's whispers that Hibberd may struggle to make the trip on a 6 day break. Both players have been important this year and either one would be missed should they not come up.

Ultimately it may be as simple as Gawn in for Jones giving an undersized team a little more balance with their talls. It gets too complicated for my pay grade to predict who might come in for either Watts or Hibberd should that happen

Our changes are a bit more nuanced. Nelson is a definite non-starter with a hamstring injury and Wellingham, who got through a full WAFL game on return from an ankle injury, looms as the most obvious replacement. Personally though, I didn't rate his game* and wouldn't be adverse to seeing Duggan left at half back where he excelled in the 2nd half against Geelong filling in for Nelson and then have Karpany or Partington come in to play Duggans role.
*My view of Wellingham's game seems to be an outlier as most other opinions I've read have been positive

After that forced change a can of worms opens. The resumption of the quest for the Coleman Medal threepeat question may not be answered until final teams are announced 90min before bouncedown, depending on just how coy the club wants to be on Kennedy as is their wont. Whilst a return looks doubtful, the question becomes a matter of who he replaces. One of Schofield or Mackenzie is probable to make room for Gov to return down back or it could be Petrie that misses to allow Gov to remain as a ruck/forward after his success in that role last weekend.

However, even if JK is ruled out the three KPD structure that made some sense (and worked) against a tallish Geelong forward line seems a risky proposition against a Melbourne forward six that lacks a true tall without Hogan. If Watts misses it becomes even shorter although Weidemann may replace him. Anyone care to remember the Richmond smalls running rings around our back 6 that had just 2 talls (Gov and Sexual) and then envisage how 3 talls would go against the likes of Petracca, Garlett, Bugg and Hannan. We rolled the dice with height against Geelong and got away with it but we look Mitch Brown to the forward pocket style unbalanced with 3 KPDs.

Forget Lycett coming in - he's not match fit and it would be foolish to bring him in so underdone for such an important game

So I've got Wellingham and another mid from the lucky dip barrel (Karps, Parto, Redden or Masten - take your pick but leave Butler out) to replace Nelson and Mackenzie (or Schofield)

Now for the whipping boys - Priddis and Lecras. I'm leaving Cripps out of this because his reduced output since returning from injury is due to a lack of match fitness imo and he's highly rated by the club so I think they'll back him in for another week. If fit, Priddis retains his spot despite the prayers from some on this board but at Monday training he was away from the main group and looked a bit proppy so general soreness may strike. It'll be Redden that replaces him so be careful what you wish for.

Lecca, lecca, lecca. I've had more sex than he's kicked goals in the last month or so and I've been pretty light on so he must surely be running out of golden tickets. Fortunately for him Hill was a bit underwhelming for East Perth whilst DV and Willie are injured so he might get another reprieve, deserved or not. If the MC lose patience then Hill would be the obvious replacement followed by Karpany with Lamb an outside the box possibility (so that won't happen - he picked a bad time to have an off day last weekend). I noted he was absent from training on Monday so if he's playing hurt, give him a rest because it isn't doing him or the team any favours and is doing no more than trashing the legacy of one of our very good players

TLDR - In Wellingham, Out Nelson. Melts are inevitable on a global warming scale when Lecras and Priddis keep their spots and the LOG* strategy remains.
*Land of Giants

Players to Watch/Match-ups

Jetta - has blossomed since returning from his EP hiatus to become one of our most influential players with some absolutely sublime kicking against Geelong in particular. I doubt he will go under the radar again after last week so I expect Melbourne to work him over like they did Johannisen.

Garlett - not just one of the most dangerous small forwards in the comp but is in the top 10 goal kickers with 29. Fast and creative around goal he looms as a difficult matchup as we don't really have a genuinely quick small defender. Wellingham the leading candidate to get the job

Oliver v Hutchings - has made a habit on getting first hands on the ball and I can see Hutchings to be given the responsibility to repeat his efforts on Jelwood

Shuey v Viney - this will be pivotal. Players who can do damage inside and outside that both teams rely on to get them clear from stoppages

Lewis v Mitchell - it's perhaps unlikely that they will line up on each other directly but they are the wise old heads that help setup the midfield structures of their respective sides. Whichever player controls traffic and distributes the ball better will have a big bearing on the result

Gawn v Vardy and the rest of his party - Big Max is a quality ruck so he will win most of the hitouts but having been out for a while may be out of sync a little with his mids so hopefully he won't be getting too many hitouts to advantage. Match fitness is also likely to be down so Gov and Petrie (assuming they ruck) should help Vardy give him a physical workover to limit his influence as the game develops

Yeo v Petracca - Yeo is the most physically capable to match the Demons young bull and the player that can go with him through midfield and cover him when he goes forward. He can also expose Petracca the other way and get him to worry about more than just getting the footy

Our forwards v their internal demons - We've averaged less than 80 points per game with an overall return of 43.65 in the last 5 weeks (and that includes the 14.6 against the Giants). Part of the explanation for our low scoring has been a lack of supply but it's fair to say our forward group is out of form. Darling found some his mojo last week but still had just 2 goals to show for it but our small forwards have struggled to have an impact and Petrie is an honest trier but he's no JK. Against the 4th best scoring side in the league (averaging just over 100 points per game), 10-12 goals isn't going to cut it. They need to take their chances and find a way to crack the ton if we are to win

What's more they have to limit the rebound off half back by Hunt, Hibberd and Jetta. If those guys are allowed to vacuum up the loose ball and get the ball in the open on the rebound, Melbourne will chop us up with their outside pace and our defenders will have no hope.

Composure v Aggravation - Expect the brash Melbourne youngsters to be front and centre trying to niggle and cajole us at every opportunity. It worked against the Bulldogs and I dare say they'll feed on the hostility of an Eagles home crowd to push us as hard as they can. We have to stand up to it but remain composed so that we focus on putting our head over the footy and not get sucked in to retaliating off the ball and giving away stupid free kicks

Conclusion

Historically, Melbourne at Subiaco has been something of a formality but that won't be the case this Saturday. Melbourne were very impressive in their win over the Bulldogs and played a similar style to what Footscray did when they tore us a new one in the Elimination Final. Like most young sides on the rise, their confidence is contagious we should expect them to really serve it up to us verbally and physically - it unnerved the Bulldogs and we have to be ready for a fight because they won't be backing down

Nothing less than the intent and appetite for the contest we showed last weekend will suffice and we won't have the benefit of the ambush of sorts that caught out Geelong. We have to make the most of our momentum when we have it and sustain the effort for all four quarters

A trend that's developed in our recent home games as been a strong first half that we've then had to defend as our opponent has pushed back. We were able to maintain our gap without extending it against Fremantle but only just held off strong finishes from Footscray and Geelong whilst we succumbed to the Giants surge. Melbourne have shown an ability to smash the scoreboard when they get on a roll - in all but two of their games they've kicked six or more goals in a quarter and in one of the games they didn't they had quarters of 5.7 and 5.6. We have to be ready for when the surge comes and hold them at bay by controlling possession of the ball then take advantage when they're poor because when they're bad they're very very bad. The bulldogs game is the only game where they didn't have a bad period where they conceded multiple goals

Decisions on Thursday at match committee level will also have a bearing on the result - 7 talls is one too many and I don't think we win unless one of them makes way. Persisting with Priddis and Lecras, especially if they're not 100%, is also dangerously rolling the dice

This wins

 

This doesn't

 

Heart is saying we get off to a good start before holding on for a narrow win but the Eeyores in my head are replaying the Elimination Final

Heart wins - Eagles by 7 points in a spiteful match

Oh and if this scares us, we deserve to lose