Is our time at the top done?

[poita 3,638]

The lack of depth in key areas (midfield, ruck & key positions) is a real concern. Similarly our most important players (May & Gawn) have only 1-2 years remaining, and could well be done sooner if they cop a significant injury.

We already have one of the oldest lists in the competition, and we haven't done enough to add quality kids in the past three drafts. The likes of Salem, Hunter and Langdon need to be transitioned out of the team in the next 1-2 years, in addition to the impending retirements of May and Gawn. I really dislike the balance of our group at the moment, with no mids developing in the VFL and too many flanker / utility types clogging up the list.

Our best players are good enough to keep the team competitive, assuming they are all fully fit and in form, but we desperately need to find 4-5 best 22 players this off season. It's difficult, but not impossible.

 

 

 

[Superunknown 3,355]

16 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Harley Reid

Yes ok, but we’re using a lot of capital on one person. You could spread the picks (is it 3 in the top 30?) plus trades / free agents for existing players as stop gaps. We’re losing a lot of people . 

[WERRIDEE 5,218]

No we still have at least 2 years left.

[BDA 20,257]

3 hours ago, Smokey said:

Oh look, another doom and gloom thread that could’ve been a comment on 100 other threads

@Wells 11 provided arguments for and against so balanced imo and not all doom and gloom. read the post not just the thread title.

[drdrake 3,044]

I think with the right drafting and trading we can actually have an extended period contending for a flag.

We are going to have a very strong draft hand this year and I reckon Tassie will get some access to kids next year followed by 2 to 3 Drafts with a lot of early picks.

This could be the last non compromised draft for 2 to 4 years.

We still have a young enough core group add in the next young group, we are filling gaps, the clubs down the bottom still have massive holes and a few recent and current contenders are prime to fall off the cliff

Edited September 20, 2023 by drdrake

[leave it to deever 15,843]

3 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

most likely BB and possibly Tmac

Surely their time is .

[BDA 20,257]

3 hours ago, Wells 11 said:

This is def a question...not a statement. But I wonder what peoples feelings are?  I think Im really hoping people refute the thought . What am i missing? 

 "Our time may be up" thoughts. 

1./ Goody getting sued and all that press must be putting added pressure on him . Can he manage it? Is he getting supported. 

2./ Lost 4 finals in a row. Perhaps the players lose confidence, drive or motivation now after 3 years of pushing hard. . The post game bake Goody gave , and the canx of our mad monday, may send them in all kind of directions pyschologically. Can they bounce back...and stay motivated re training this off season? 

3./ Loss of a lot of depth. Grundy, JJ, Harmes, Dunstan, ( most likely BB and possibly Tmac) plus Petty may take a long while to be back. So our reserves will be tested this coming year like no other for a while. If we start getting injuries early the wheels could come off. 

4./ No back up ruck. With all the obvious issues that presents. If Petty is missing ( and pending  trading for a fwd)  we may have no big fwd for the start of the year as well. 

5./ The media pile on will only get bigger if we start badly in 24. " wasted our chance" " bad management" " terrible decision re Grundy" Tracc cant kick" "Goody no good" etc etc. It could get fierce next year quite quickly. The heat will be high. Damo and Caro will lead the charge...we've all seen that [censored] movie before. 

6./ How many years does a club like ours actually get at the top? We're hardly a Geelong advertising both  lifestyle and "best in class" facilities are we. 

7./ Gawn at the edge re his age and body. If he falls over, our time at the pointy end may be finished.

8./Teams have gone past us or soon will. Adelaide/ Carlton/ GWS/ Port/ Lions/ Pies

 

"Staying up at the top" thoughts

1./ Midfield is dominant and in their prime. Sparrow improving.

2./ Stars all over the field still in the peak of their careers.

3./ 71 k fans and growing. More big crowds next year...team extra motivated. Win some close ones, change the narrative. 

4./ Perhaps a home base announcement Q1? Some good news in the press....changes the narrative 

5./ Goody a seasoned warrior as player and coach. Case is dismissed and HWSNBN can F off. 

6./ Petty just getting started as a fwd, JVR a year on. Fitter and bigger...and angry. 

7./ We just cant have the bad luck injury wise nor the bad kicking of 23 ...it just cant happen again..can it? . 

 

I can't decide whether we're very close or as far away as ever. keep changing my mind.

We've got a very good list and with some luck on the injury front no reason to think we can't challenge again.

On the other hand, the other finals teams are playing a more corridor-based game. The game has moved on so we need to catch-up. Time will tell if we will.

One thing i am sure of. We need to freshen up the assistant coaching ranks. We've gone stale and predictable.

[darkhorse72 1,737]

It really depends on what talent we can continue to feed into the team.  This years draft hand is the best since the

picks of the Jackson, kossie, rivers draft.   If we can get the same strike rate they will help us maintain and hopefully push us further into finals.  3/4 high quality players would be huge,  why I prefer not giving up multiple Picks to get no.1.   

[MadAsHell 4,088]

No. But I'll answer again after the 2025 season.

[dee-tox 4,827]

The list has to keep improving. This year we saw some improvement from JvR, Chandler and McVee.

Rivers stepped up and Laurie at least played a few games.

Petty made the transition forward.

Viney had a great year.

That was offset by Oliver, May, Lever, Fritta, Spargo, Kozzie and Gawn having poorer seasons.

Injuries to nearly all our major forwards.

Langdon, Harmes, Jordon and Salem seemed to decline.

We'll need further improvement in 2024. How we do that is to be determined.

New recruits, drafting, development, fitness, gameplan, luck, confidence, coaching, etc.

It will be the sum of all parts.

 

 

[WalkingCivilWar 32,398]

Something I don’t understand… why is it a given that we’re only in a “premiership window” for five or however many years? Why is there a cap on the time we can be genuine contenders? I thought drafting and list management etc. handled well could mean a drop out of contention isn’t necessarily inevitable. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by WalkingCivilWar

[rpfc 27,540]

4 hours ago, von said:

Tune in next year to find out 

That’s the answer dear listeners.

[ElDiablo14 3,183]

6 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Something I don’t understand… why is it a given that we’re only in a “premiership window” for five or however many years? Why is there a cap on the time we can be genuine contenders? I thought drafting and list management etc. handled well could mean a drop out of contention isn’t necessarily inevitable. 

It's hard to predict the future.

Just 18 months ago we thought we had Gawns replacement ready(with Jackson).

It's true we have had many wins on drafting and recruiting, and this year's draft hand proves it.

All I know the current crop of players should be able to compete for flags for at least 2 more years, maybe 3.

Let's see how we can manage the transition to the next crop.

 

[DeelightfulPlay 2,238]

8 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Something I don’t understand… why is it a given that we’re only in a “premiership window” for five or however many years? Why is there a cap on the time we can be genuine contenders? I thought drafting and list management etc. handled well could mean a drop out of contention isn’t necessarily inevitable. 

The Cats have been very successful at maximising their chances to play in finals due to similar actions (although it took them 10 years to get bookend premierships under Chris Scott).

I think there was an interview with Goody or Yze earlier in the season (but close to finals) talking about how it is our intention to set up the club to be in contention for a long time, not just these next few years.

Although looking at the end of Max's and May's careers makes me nervous on that front 😬 esp now we have Petty forward and Grundy likely gone

[beelzebub 22,230]

2 minutes ago, DeelightfulPlay said:

The Cats have been very successful at maximising their chances to play in finals due to similar actions (although it took them 10 years to get bookend premierships under Chris Scott).

I think there was an interview with Goody or Yze earlier in the season (but close to finals) talking about how it is our intention to set up the club to be in contention for a long time, not just these next few years.

Although looking at the end of Max's and May's careers makes me nervous on that front 😬 esp now we have Petty forward and Grundy likely gone

Its just a little harder for team with no access to neighbouring rural properties......

[BW511 2,258]

I have 3 big concerns going into 2024 and beyond, in no particular order:

1 - We are in desperate need of skill, from HBF through to FF. There’s only 2 blokes I’d put in the elite category with field kicking, Bowza and Salem. Unfortunately, due to injury, Salem has not been fit enough to get the required space to use it. He’s spent the year dump kicking. Collingwood, Brisbane and GWS all play very attacking games based on skill. Aside from being much better to watch, it’s more natural for players and I think it would gain a lot more ‘buy in’ from a group.

2 - Burn out. I think our game plan is too physically taxing to sustain for 3-4-5 years in a row. We’ve made slight tweaks but it still revolves around an enormous amount of effort across the board. Physically and mentally, I think our guys have lacked a bit of zip all year. No doubt the effects of consecutive straight sets exits will add to this.

3 - Gameplan. We have a very defensively minded gameplan and yet it’s still extremely susceptible to being opened up. We have beaten teams that employ faster, more attacking game plans but they are still there and we aren’t. Yes, there is luck, injuries and dodgy umpiring but at the end of the day it’s bloody hard to win and even harder if you aren’t there.

I think the easiest way to address these issues is much the same as everyone else. Draft mids that can kick the ball exceptionally well. Bring change to the coaching panel. Allow ourselves to take more risk, across the entire organisation. Everywhere we look, we are playing it safe. 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by BW511

[Jjrogan 1,222]

4 hours ago, adonski said:

I think we'll be okay. 

Forward line will be much better next year - Petty, JVR, Fritsch, Pickett, Tracc is a great core

Defence will be strong as per normal pending Steven May not dying from old age in the off season 

Midfield is the biggest concern...question marks over Gus, Sparrow is just okay, Langdon went backwards. This is the area that needs experimenting with the most I reckon...

This is right.  For yet another season we have the usual clanger kings in the middle. 3 of the top 13 clanger players are Demons.  It just amazing the free pass they get in all this. 

Yes, I get the notion that contested midfielders create clangers but this is the point. It's our entire midfield. We are simply not balanced with enough good kickers, vision and decision makers.  The problem isn't the forwards (ok we kicked awful for goal and with some luck our finals 5 games look very different). We could have Wayne Carey on a lead 10 metres in front of his opponent and I have no confidence any of our midfield would hit him on the full. Until this changes it will be more of the same.  We were crazy efficient during the end of 2021 but for all of the usual culprits this was a statistical anomaly.  Definition of insanity having the same blokes in there and expecting different results imo. 

 

[Rab D Nesbitt 7,266]

Enough with the melodrama already.  

[tiers 2,783]

Herein the paradox. Even if we had a target, and even if we could pass laces out to that target, would we have still had more forward entries and more scoring shots than we had in the two finals?

I agree that a better entry could not be worse, but, even so, our more chaotic, undisciplined entries still generate more opportunities than the oppos and we dominate possession and forward entries.

Our big issue is kicking straight. As has been stated earlier in this thread, one or two better shots per game and we would be top two and in the preliminary final.

So long as we can generate greater numbers of possessions and forward entries, we have the basis of a real successful future.

A settled forward structure is what we need.

[DubDee 20,881]

if we had of lost our finals like we did last year i’d be seriously worried we are in trouble. 

The reality is you need is you need some luck when it comes to knock out games. 8/10 we beat the Blues. and the Pies game was 50-50

its hurts bad and we have issues but with Trac, Viney, Lever, Clarry, Gus etc all in their prime and top draft talent coming in we are well placed

 

[DubDee 20,881]

3 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Something I don’t understand… why is it a given that we’re only in a “premiership window” for five or however many years? Why is there a cap on the time we can be genuine contenders? I thought drafting and list management etc. handled well could mean a drop out of contention isn’t necessarily inevitable. 

it’s possible but typically what happens is a team is poor, they gather draft picks and trade in players and move up the ladder. We are doing well now as we have generational talents like Clarry Trac Gawn. when they retire we will most likely drop. although i think the club is doing very well bringing in the likes of Kozzi Rivers etc so this is eased somewhat. we need elite mids to supplement the list soon

[layzie 29,089]

Nothing is definite and a premiership window can be blown open or slammed shut at any time but we have next to no-one in the 23 y.o to 26 y.o category therefore the tradition window view for now rings true. 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,876]

I haven't looked through the comments but I'd have to say if we don't nail these draft picks we have in our possesion it could be all over very quickly.

5, 13, 26, 32 along with Sydney's potential picks 11 and 22 for our picks 13, 26 and Grundy I think its a win-win for both clubs.

We will never be in this position again for a very, very long time, I'm hoping its a 3-5 years period we are seriously challenging, but we need to fix our problems areas which have been stated.

Am i being over ambitions with the Grundy trade? He still has 4 years to run on his contract so we dont need to trade but he wants out, Sydney want and need a ruckman.

If this eventuates we could be rolling in draft currency with picks 5,11,22,30,32 to conjure up further deals.

JT and his merry men would be licking their lips at the thought of this prospect.

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by YesitwasaWin4theAges

[JimmyGadson 3,455]

Most definitely not if we address some fundemental flaws in our game plan and list. 

If we don't, I can't see us winning another flag by backing in our system and list. Sure we'll be there abouts with the top 6 but it won't be good enough. 

[Demon Dynasty 15,636]

15 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

Blake Howes, Disco Turner and Woewodin (both who you’ve seen) all look more than capable.

AMW came on a bit towards the end of the season.

Personally I rate Jefferson. It’s a huge jump in strength and lack of space playing against under 18’s to the VFL. He can mark and kick.

I expect us to bring in experienced midfield depth to replace contest players Dunstan and Harmes, and to a lesser extent JJ.

That about sums it up.

Jefferson appears to be a pretty big work in progress and too early to tell if he'll make it for mine.

Improved a little in the back half but when exposed as a main forward in the final he didn't give a yelp.

Needs time to develop though.  Be interesting to see what shape he comes back in for the start of 24.  He might be two pre-seasons away IF he makes it.

Assuming we're playing McVee, Salo & Bowey, then Howes would have to fit in somewhere other than HB yes?

Personally i think he's very suited to the wing which means he would have to bang the door down big time to push out Hunter or Langdon.

Goody seems pretty fixated on these two.  While both were very serviceable at times in 2023, i didn't think either of them were consistent stand outs and occasionaly they were poor.

Both are pretty ordinary with ball in hand coming inside 50.  Adding to our inside 50 connection woes.

Howes and Woe might be able to push their way in to one of the wings here but i don't think we'll see either of them do so early on.  Unless there's an unfortunate injury or suspension window.

Woe might get some mid time though so opportunties might arise for him here with JJ & Harmes now likely to depart.

I'd love to see both get some serious game time at some stage before the buy though as i feel they'll offer some improved connection plus some much needed run & carry.

We need to get some more overlap play into the team.  Transition in 2022/23 a bit stale/slow for mine.

Particularly on Hunter's wing as he has no run & carry ability.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Demon Dynasty