POSTGAME: Rd 19 vs Adelaide

[DeeMee 740]

Headline from afl.com.au says it all really regarding media lack of respect. Barrett and Lloyd.

”Crows Threw it Away, Clutch Pies”

Edited July 24, 2023 by DeeMee

[beelzebub 22,225]

2 minutes ago, DeeMee said:

Headline from afl.com.au says it all really regarding media lack of respect.

”Crows Threw it Away, Clutch Pies”

To the media...it's all just black and white...

[Nascent 7,331]

2 minutes ago, DeeMee said:

Headline from afl.com.au says it all really regarding media lack of respect.

”Crows Threw it Away, Clutch Pies”

If you listen to the AAA video Barrett even says that crows should be in the finals and sitting 5th or even 4th.

I'm convinced he lurks on here and enjoys trolling us.

[640MD 2,810]

You are right, but then to fly under the radar is the way thats better.

Not sure we are useless to the opposition coaches.     Good place to be sitting 4th and with the players and ability to bet better

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,821]

1 hour ago, IRW said:

I appreciate that you tried to defend your argument. It's chicken or the egg ..all coaches set up with certain match ups and game plans in mind while  some make decisive changes when required during a game.

I suggest Goodwin is predictable  and slow to adjust, which is why MFC get cut down in surges and imbalances ..

 

Calling  me a cynic is fair enough but it's exacerbated by the nonsense posted on here at times.

Still I am rusted on enough to have weathered the peaks and troughs from 1964 to 2021.

Granted 64 was a close one, a nail biter we nearly dropped and I really only remember the last 15 minutes.

If Maysie kicks the sealer on G/F day I will be happy enough ,especially if it's against black and white ( where ever they call home)

You'd have to say @IRW that Simon has mixed things up more than what he did last year to all of our bemusement.

He has improved in all areas of his coaching, but i do agree he is slow to adjusting on field match ups at times.

 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,821]

9 minutes ago, DeeMee said:

Headline from afl.com.au says it all really regarding media lack of respect. Barrett and Lloyd.

”Crows Threw it Away, Clutch Pies”

He is a skidmark that Purple.

[Jaded No More 58,189]

I reckon you ask McRae which team he would least like to play in finals at the MCG and his answer would be Melbourne. 
I guess Goody’s answer would be the Pies tho. 

[titan_uranus 22,458]

2 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

The biggest highlight was the continued use of Pickett in the middle throughout the game.

We had glimpses in the past then wouldn’t see it at all for a long time.

Is Goodwin starting to break from his “it worked in 2021 so it will work now/playing favourites that ruined 2022” phase?

What do you mean "starting"?

He's been doing this for weeks now.

We've had more players rotating through the middle than in 2022. We've rested/managed players who haven't been fit instead of pushing through (with Petty the only exception I can think of). We've gone away from the 2021 preferred forward structure and indeed we're also now trying out a single ruck model. We've tried two tall defenders instead of three. We've dropped Spargo and Harmes more than once, we kept Brown out for weeks, we're now keeping Hibberd out. We currently have three 2023 debutants in our line-up as well as Chandler who had 5 games' experience before this year.

And above all, we've spent huge portions of this year developing a turnover/transition game, rather than going all in on our stoppage game.

[binman 38,484]

1 hour ago, fr_ap said:

I'm on record in another thread saying expected score can be a flawed metric, but worth pointing out we won expected score 95-85 yesterday, implying if anyone missed more shots than expected, it was us. 

They kicked poorly to start, we kicked poorly to finish. They also took a number of shots from very far out which to some degree our defence was responsible for. 

That's interesting.

I hadn't seen the expected scores, but my guess would have been they were head on expected scores. 

I don't know what the half time expected score was, but going on this half time info from from the timeline on the AFL app, surely the Crows must have been up at half time on expected scores 

• The accuracy of Melbourne has separated these teams in the first half. Adelaide has scored 0.6 from shots at goal in the 30-50 metre range and Melbourne has scored 4.1 from equivalent shots at goal.
• The Crows lead 14-10 in shots at goal (including misses)

Edited July 24, 2023 by binman

[titan_uranus 22,458]

1 hour ago, SFebes said:

Gday Frap - Just out of curiosity, is the "expected score" a constant in-game changing evidence based data set? ie; also, how can it predict what could have happened had Adelaide not kicked 1.8 to start the game, is it just a best guess? Does it factor confidence/momentum? They also missed some easy shots in close as well. 

All I was saying was in reference to people who say if we kicked straight in the last, if Crows kicked straight it's a totally different ball game.

ps: "expected score" is not something I have used but I have noticed quite a few discrepancies with how its portrayed so would like to learn more about it.

The expected score I use (AFLxScore on Twitter) is simply an analysis of the AFL average points scored from the shots a side takes (based on distance, angle, and whether it's a set shot or general play). It doesn't take into account pressure (actual or perceived) or time of the game, I don't think.

The fact we won on expected score yesterday helps dispel the bolded part of your post. It's not really accurate to say "they missed some easy shots" - on the whole, they scored above what the average side would score from the shots they took, whereas we scored about on that average. So they were outperforming, not underperforming.

Of course, these things all have to be taken with a grain of salt. If a goal had actually been kicked, the ball goes back to the centre, and the whole flow of the game changes. But the metric is helpful to consider goal-kicking accuracy and the difficulty of shots, and just on that basis, it's not actually correct to say they missed easy shots - on the whole, they out-did what they should have scored.

Edited July 24, 2023 by titan_uranus

[Kozzie4PM 765]

17 hours ago, jayceebee31 said:

I felt Lever put in a bad one.Hecseems to do stupid things at the wrong time.Needs to shut up more and concentrate on own game.

This is deadset the silliest comment I've read on this website.

[binman 38,484]

10 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

The expected score I use (AFLxScore on Twitter) is simply an analysis of the AFL average points scored from the shots a side takes (based on distance, angle, and whether it's a set shot or general play). It doesn't take into account pressure (actual or perceived) or time of the game, I don't think.

I might well be wrong, but i think it does factor in pressure.

[fr_ap 2,148]

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

The expected score I use (AFLxScore on Twitter) is simply an analysis of the AFL average points scored from the shots a side takes (based on distance, angle, and whether it's a set shot or general play). It doesn't take into account pressure (actual or perceived) or time of the game, I don't think.

The fact we won on expected score yesterday helps dispel the bolded part of your post. It's not really accurate to say "they missed some easy shots" - on the whole, they scored above what the average side would score from the shots they took, whereas we scored about on that average. So they were outperforming, not underperforming.

Of course, these things all have to be taken with a grain of salt. If a goal had actually been kicked, the ball goes back to the centre, and the whole flow of the game changes. But the metric is helpful to consider goal-kicking accuracy and the difficulty of shots, and just on that basis, it's not actually correct to say they missed easy shots - on the whole, they out-did what they should have scored.

Thanks for responding on my behalf - said it better than I could have!

[Demon Dynasty 15,566]

Rain can be helpful (vis a'vis Poms) or unhelpful (us)

Thank Lucifer this wasn't being played at Old Trafford

[Bang Bang Bang 5,504]

34 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

I reckon you ask McRae which team he would least like to play in finals at the MCG and his answer would be Melbourne. 
I guess Goody’s answer would be the Pies tho. 

Melbourne week 1 with the prospect of Geelong in week 2 would surely make you nervous. 

[SFebes 4,692]

30 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

The expected score I use (AFLxScore on Twitter) is simply an analysis of the AFL average points scored from the shots a side takes (based on distance, angle, and whether it's a set shot or general play). It doesn't take into account pressure (actual or perceived) or time of the game, I don't think.

The fact we won on expected score yesterday helps dispel the bolded part of your post. It's not really accurate to say "they missed some easy shots" - on the whole, they scored above what the average side would score from the shots they took, whereas we scored about on that average. So they were outperforming, not underperforming.

Of course, these things all have to be taken with a grain of salt. If a goal had actually been kicked, the ball goes back to the centre, and the whole flow of the game changes. But the metric is helpful to consider goal-kicking accuracy and the difficulty of shots, and just on that basis, it's not actually correct to say they missed easy shots - on the whole, they out-did what they should have scored.

Thanks TU, great explanation there.

I guess it's also impossible to gauge confidence and momentum anyway, hence your bolded part. I'll take a look into that account this evening and look more into it. I think I'll just look at it from a goalkicking perspective rather than an overall performance/win-loss scenario.

Cheers for the info.

[SFebes 4,692]

Commentators made a note of May putting the ball on the ground before kicking long up the centre, has anyone gone back and taken a look into this?

I feel (have for a while now) that kick-ins are definitely an area we can improve a lot in. Imagine if Grundy had Gawns capabilities in overhead marking, that's where this duo could really be an advantage with kick-ins.

[leave it to deever 15,700]

2 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

Not according to the expected scores they weren't. They nailed some really hard shots in the last, while we missed some absolute gimmes in the last.

 

Adelaide are ranked 1st in the competition for inside 50 efficiency, 2nd for goals, 2nd for contested marks, 3rd for contested possessions and 4th for clearances. They also have the highest average speed in both attack and defence! 

It is little wonder that they are pushing the best sides, and that they did the same to us. 

Anyone who underestimates them is looking at the win loss ratio of a side still finding consistency, and not at what they actually bring to the game. 

If they beat the Pies and us, as they could have given the margin, they are firmly in the top 6 and spoken of in the same "could do real damage" as Geelong are, who are statistically nowhere near as good as the Crows this year. 

They also had more inside fifties as well as scoring shots. They had a much higher tackle count too. No two ways about it, they missed more shots than us. Three more in fact.  I still think we we are lucky they did.

Edited July 24, 2023 by leave it to deever

[Deestar9 1,412]

46 minutes ago, Bang Bang Bang said:

Melbourne week 1 with the prospect of Geelong in week 2 would surely make you nervous. 

Geelong has to play at optimal level from now until wherever they end up …finals as well if they make it. With their age demographic..can’t see it. Def haven’t had the luxury of resting players his season ..,

[Supreme_Demon 3,011]

1 hour ago, SFebes said:

Commentators made a note of May putting the ball on the ground before kicking long up the centre, has anyone gone back and taken a look into this?

I feel (have for a while now) that kick-ins are definitely an area we can improve a lot in. Imagine if Grundy had Gawns capabilities in overhead marking, that's where this duo could really be an advantage with kick-ins.

I agree that it definitely needs improvement!!!

As harsh as it sounds, Steven May had some absolute shockers on Sunday. The chip kick to Trent Rivers that got intercepted by the Adelaide player resulting in a goal was just stupid.

Steven May should either kick long or give the responsibility of kick-ins to Jake Bowey or Christian Salem. I trust their decision making more for kick-ins.

[The heart beats true 16,238]

I’m watching the replay (because work is for suckers). The game feels like an old fashioned 90’s game, with 2 teams playing with skill and lots of effort on the G.

I really rate that game. It was a ripper.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

What do you mean "starting"?

He's been doing this for weeks now.

We've had more players rotating through the middle than in 2022. We've rested/managed players who haven't been fit instead of pushing through (with Petty the only exception I can think of). We've gone away from the 2021 preferred forward structure and indeed we're also now trying out a single ruck model. We've tried two tall defenders instead of three. We've dropped Spargo and Harmes more than once, we kept Brown out for weeks, we're now keeping Hibberd out. We currently have three 2023 debutants in our line-up as well as Chandler who had 5 games' experience before this year.

And above all, we've spent huge portions of this year developing a turnover/transition game, rather than going all in on our stoppage game.

Exactly, it’s good that’s what I’m saying!

But it was particularly clear with how Pickett was used yesterday.

Edited July 24, 2023 by Clint Bizkit

[rpfc 27,511]

11 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Exactly, it’s good that’s what I’m saying!

Bit it was particularly clear with how Pickett was used yesterday.

How good was Pickett up the ground? 

I think it’s the Chandler Effect.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Just now, rpfc said:

How good was Pickett up the ground? 

I think it’s the Chandler Effect.

Chandler was excellent, I’d gone right off him but very happy to be wrong.

[BDA 20,186]

8 hours ago, IRW said:

Sure, but the Pies play bazball,its exciting and  two games clear on the basis of fearless commited " dare" ( quote Dasisy Pearce) besides winning close ones.

The close ones  M F C have recently won are the ones they nearly lost because they couldn't close the door ,which is exciting but the antithesis of the Pies.

If MFC ' s" bang bang bang "variants went with blow out wins leaving the opposition mids looking at the scoreboard as they trudged back to the next bounce then there would be a deal more respect around.

England play bazball 

they lost the ashes