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Watson11 last won the day on October 25 2018

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Mighty Demon

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  1. Mathematically, the home ground probabilities are more realistic (but still flawed as they don’t take into account that teams finishing higher are better teams). I especially like group 2 from the home ground probabilities which now consists of Geelong only. We and other mcg co tenants are Group 5.
  2. @Demon17 I admire your persistence in your theory but just a couple of other outliers of sides that played finals after being outside the 8 after round 9. 2021 GWS and Essendon 2020 Pies 2019 Bulldogs and Essendon 2018 Pies, Hawks, GWS 2017 Essendon (as well as Sydney) 2015 Dogs and north 2014 Tigers and Essendon 2013 Tigers, Pies, Port 2012 Geelong, Freo, North 2011 Saints 2010 Hawks 2009 Pies, Crows, Carlton 2008 Saints etc etc
  3. I agree. Richmond currently are ranked 18 for conceding scores from inside 50s which is a pretty impressive effort considering Essendon, West Coast, and North are better. As soon as they play a decent defence they are toast. The 31 to 14 scoring shots against us is a true reflection of where they are at. Port also made 2 adjustments to game style 4 weeks ago that seem to be working and since then are conceding less goals per inside 50 than us. They have played some average teams though so this week will test out their new style properly.
  4. I'm not scared by any team that leaks more scores per inside 50 that West Coast and North. % Scores Conceded i50s Melbourne 37.2 Brisbane 38.9 Fremantle 38 St Kilda 40.1 Geelong 41.2 Western Bulldogs 43.8 Hawthorn 44.1 Sydney 42.5 GWS 45 Collingwood 44 Gold Coast 43.2 Port Adelaide 42.3 Adelaide 44.5 West Coast 47.2 Carlton 44.3 Essendon 47.7 North Melbourne 47.3 Richmond 48
  5. Sorry, but the 8 has changed after round 9 every year except 3. The last time it didn’t change was 2016. Even the premier has come from outside the 8 on or after round 9 on 2 occasions in the last 20 years!
  6. It should matter though. The AFL needs to start acting like a proper tribunal system where precedent does matter and they apply decisions consistently. I think Chandler should get suspended but the rules need to be applied consistently. The AFL seems to put commercial interests first and the MRO follow. The AFL wants the best players from the biggest clubs on the field. It will be interesting to see what happens when a Hawkins tackle results in a superstar missing games (the AFL don't want that). We are lucky it didn't get tested last year after the tackle below in round 23.
  7. You must be kidding about the afl being tough on these sort of tackles. Exhibit 1, late tackle, player concussed, no penalty. Tom Hawkins tackle
  8. Ed was only knocked off top spot for a week.
  9. I’ll post the top 10 when it’s published. The scoring is a mystery to me as they use stats and votes. @The Mongrel Punt would you be able to elaborate what stats are used and how the voting works?
  10. To be fair SWYL is not the only one that doesn’t know what a wingman looks like. The AA selectors don’t either. To compensate, mongrelpunt run their own rankings, and publish the latest ladder on Tuesdays. The standings after round 7 were
  11. This site has good stats https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html There is a play on % stat (I'm not sure what the % is of), which I would normally equate to an offensive brand, and Crows and Saints are bottom 3. Interestingly Hawks were near the bottom, and then last week they played on nearly 50% more than normal against us. Port are high up, but then against us they decided to change it and played on 50% less and were hopeless. Sides that take the game on can hurt is (like the dogs for a qtr), but that comes unstuck against us when we bring pressure. Our pressure has been down this year compared to last year, and all the related stats are down (pressure acts, tackles, ground ball gets etc). For Tackles we were #1 last year, and this year are #16. I hope we can turn the pressure on when needed. Would be good to do it this week.
  12. Update to defensive stats courtesy of @WheeloRatings. We were bad against the Hawks conceding scores from 52% of inside 50s. We also broke the 50% barrier against the bombers in round 3. We only did it once last year (Pies game). Freo have jumped above us for scores conceded per i50 (but not goals). The site has an interesting stat Play On %. Freo are #1 defensively in that stat (stopping opponents playing on). We are #3. We are #1 on the other side (offensively playing on), while Freo are #18.
  13. Was unloved last week as well when he kept Shai Bolton to his lowest disposal count for over 12 months
  14. Update of defensive stats. Definitely seems to be locked in to some averages now with only minor movement each week. Freo are putting up impressive numbers. Carlton were ranked third for i50s before last week (56 per game). Freo restricted them to just 38 i50s which is pretty impressive. If Freo's system stands up against Geelog this week then I'll call a Freo v Melb grand final. Brisbane are dangerous offensively but when finals pressure hits their mids are too loose and slow (bottom 6 at conceding i50s).
  15. Agree re Freo. I expect the wheels to fall off Carlton this year. Take away Curnow and McKay goals (through good defence, bad winter weather, more pressure on Carlton mids or injury) and Carlton are bottom 6 in my opinion. Gerard Healy had an interesting stat re Freo. If their kicking for goal was at the "expected accuracy" rate in 2021, they would have finished 5th (in front of the bulldogs). They have improved their defence again this year and are kicking straight.
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