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2 hours ago, BAMF said:

We need a tall forward. Without a doubt. Jefferson is the right age, right height and will likely be picked up around our first pick in the draft.

Is he actually good enough though? What if we get to 2025 and Jefferson is a bust? Most will back in Jason Taylor to make the correct decision. I just hope it's not a case of 'we needed a tall and he was what was available at the time'. Which is how I feel about the Lucas Cook draft pick.

It’s a fair concern but if we can see the issue I’m thinking it’s odds on JT can!

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23 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Getting strong Lucas Cook vibes for this draft...

So your vibes are based on a player we drafted 12 years ago by a different recruiter and a recruiting department that probably has nobody remaining from that time? 

By my calculation, the only person in our football department from 2010, when the Cook selection was made, is Max Gawn who was drafted in 2009.

It may be strong in your mind as a supporter but I don't think it is relevant at all.

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On 11/20/2022 at 11:25 AM, dazzledavey36 said:

Slowly coming around to Jefferson the more I've thought about him in depth and the position he players and just watching his video's.

My only concern is that if we were to select him, his career would pan out more as that floating 3rd tall then a key positional FF or CHF.

Similar to how Jack Watts career panned when we all hoped he was going to be that traditional key forward that we lacked since Neitz retired.

 

He has bravery and reach in the air to take contested leaps, plus can read the play to time leads inside 50. I like him as a FF for the way the game is played. Pretty much a shorter, slower version of the King twins. Or a younger, healthier but lesser version of Ben Brown

I wouldn’t call him a 3rd tall. I think he can hold his own as a FF but in a limited role rather than that of a true do it all key forward. Josh Kennedy at the Eagles was a  full forward who struggled to ever get a kick outside 50, so it’s not impossible.

My concerns are:
- he doesn’t look a great athlete on the ground. Haven’t seen his 2km time trial or sprint but I doubt it’s a strength. 
- he doesn’t seem to have special foot skills. I wish he was a left footer because they seem to get time and space for snaps 
- those factors mean he’s low possessions and at this stage of development not a great defensive presence

The power of JVR and the reach of Jefferson would be an appealing combination. Thunder and Lightening. But if they’re both B graders we’ll have spent a fair bit of recreating a lesser version of T Mc and Ben Brown. The upside: Darling and Kennedy. 

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On 11/9/2022 at 9:45 PM, monoccular said:

“…to be a KPF in our forward line you need to have at least some level of physicality and strength”

However we did win a Premiership with BBB as a KPF forward who doesn’t exactly meet your criteria.  Just saying  

Of course its possible (and we did it although we did have TMac)

But if you look at Richmond Carlton, Geelong they have physical fwds that take the best defenders. I would rather a fwd that has physicality than one who is a lead and mark fwd in general terms

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13 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

He has bravery and reach in the air to take contested leaps, plus can read the play to time leads inside 50. I like him as a FF for the way the game is played. Pretty much a shorter, slower version of the King twins. Or a younger, healthier but lesser version of Ben Brown

I wouldn’t call him a 3rd tall. I think he can hold his own as a FF but in a limited role rather than that of a true do it all key forward. Josh Kennedy at the Eagles was a  full forward who struggled to ever get a kick outside 50, so it’s not impossible.

My concerns are:
- he doesn’t look a great athlete on the ground. Haven’t seen his 2km time trial or sprint but I doubt it’s a strength. 
- he doesn’t seem to have special foot skills. I wish he was a left footer because they seem to get time and space for snaps 
- those factors mean he’s low possessions and at this stage of development not a great defensive presence

The power of JVR and the reach of Jefferson would be an appealing combination. Thunder and Lightening. But if they’re both B graders we’ll have spent a fair bit of recreating a lesser version of T Mc and Ben Brown. The upside: Darling and Kennedy. 

A lesser version of Brown is a curious take 

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40 minutes ago, adonski said:

A lesser version of Brown is a curious take 

More in terms of his role as a low possession goal kicker. Less height, more leap but some similars as a rangy type.

If he can be 3/4’s of peak Ben Brown when he was kicking 60+ goals he’d be a good pick.

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To all the doubters and supporters who have commented on Matthew Jefferson I offer the following comments following his highlights stats and career that has been covered by the gurus and "experts" alike.

1. Cadman is NOT going to be available and MJ is clearly the second best KPF on his record in Junior and Championship ( National ) footy so far.

2. Matthew has put on 8 kgs and about 3 cms since his first stats about 9/12 mths ago.

3. He like most of the top 15/20 draftees speaks very/surely and  confidently about himself indicating a degree of belief based on a good grounding on the forward line so far.

4. Regarding Lucas Cook and comparisons once again he like Wattsy was expected to be a saviour, almost lone handed. JVR and MJ have the benefit of if fit and available Tmac BBB Gawny Brodie and Fritta plus a plethora of mids and smalls playing forward to learn and develop plus our superior coaching at the Club now.

5. If you say that MJ is only being selected as being the next in line for FF and we should delay our selection till Mr Right comes along he is clearly 2nd best and has a number of skills that make good forwards. That is good mark good lead good kick ( record is  fine for the one poster who knocked this) and he is ripe for further development already maturing in size. 

6. To be a good KPF you need to be a good rounded player with some tricks and to me looking at his highlights he has got some X factor as well these tricks which makes him a potentially good AFL player. Of course how he handles expectation and pressure are vital factors to be proven.

7. JVR came to us with his package of ability to play at KPF or KPD and has started well and been a very good contributor at Casey  who excites us with his potential. Because we didn't know about him as much he has not got the grilling Matthew is getting. We are accepting of him as we have seen some real evidence at Casey that he could be a  good/great Demon on the forward line.

8. There is no way knowing if  MJ will fulfil his draft potential but he looks a "good footballer" to me and I Will back JT and the FD to select him as we need some young forwards to blossom with our other stars to be confident of some success over the next 5 plus years. Recruiting good footballers ensures you have a choice of options in a team that their ability can break games apart with their talent.  MJ I have the feeling is this.

PS David Schwarz always looked a good footballer in 1991/2 in the Reserves and JVR and Bowser to me are similar at the Dees from Casey form and Bowers first 20 plus AFL games. MJ's highlights are indicative of a player with football gifts that may well separate himself from others and become an elite Demon forward. 

Go forth and select JT and company and good luck. 

 

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4 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

So your vibes are based on a player we drafted 12 years ago by a different recruiter and a recruiting department that probably has nobody remaining from that time? 

By my calculation, the only person in our football department from 2010, when the Cook selection was made, is Max Gawn who was drafted in 2009.

It may be strong in your mind as a supporter but I don't think it is relevant at all.

You nailed that one.

 

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5 hours ago, Axis of Bob said:

So your vibes are based on a player we drafted 12 years ago by a different recruiter and a recruiting department that probably has nobody remaining from that time? 

By my calculation, the only person in our football department from 2010, when the Cook selection was made, is Max Gawn who was drafted in 2009.

It may be strong in your mind as a supporter but I don't think it is relevant at all.


It’s not relevant at all, you’re right. All I mean to say that I feel like by the time it gets to our selection, the players we covet will be gone, and we’ll be left picking through the scraps.

Lucas Cook was a bad choice for us, but the choice was made (I feel) due to a lack of decent alternative options and possibly a stubborn refusal to carefully scrutinise those outside of our preferences. It was a lazy selection based on AA credentials. Much like BP was known to do, selecting Gysberts seemingly based on AIS membership and someone long forgotten lauding his handballing skills as the best the AIS had seen.

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23 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Nick Riewoldt is listed as 193 cm, I always thought he was 196cm.

Jefferson is 194cm.

I thought Jefferson was listed at 195cm Bombay and if Nick Riewoldt was 193cm then he got absolutely everything that you could get out of a 6’4”” player and some.!!

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Just to add some context to this discussion, Matt Jefferson and of course, many others in the mix for draft selection, have been known to JT and all leading AFL recruiters for several years. Jefferson, along with the following names (who are currently in draft contention) were in the 2019 Victorian under 15 schoolboys squad:-

Marcus Ashcroft, Jhye Clark, Blake Drury, Harry Flynn, Cooper Harvey, Noah Long, Paul Pascu, Jonti Schuback, Elijah Tsatas, George Wardlaw and Nicholas Watson.

There were others in the squad as well but I first heard some of the names including Jefferson’s 3½ years ago so people within JT’s team would have been watching him and many others for at least that long a time. 

There are no guarantees but you can rest assured, no player is selected in the first round on a whim.

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Anyone have any idea who the Jefferson and Cadman in next year's draft are and how they compare. Just wondering given we have two first rounders and two second rounders next year in what's regarded as a much stronger draft so plenty of scope to trade up to a much higher pick than this years. Jefferson looks like he's going to take a few years to fill out before he's going to be competitive. Wonder if JT and team would have an eye on that when deciding who to take this year. Wonder if there is anyone next year who could potentially be better. 

Edited by Its Time for Another
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44 minutes ago, Its Time for Another said:

Anyone have any idea who the Jefferson and Cadman in next year's draft are and how they compare. Just wondering given we have two first rounders and two second rounders next year in what's regarded as a much stronger draft so plenty of scope to trade up to a much higher pick than this years. Jefferson looks like he's going to take a few years to fill out before he's going to be competitive. Wonder if JT and team would have an eye on that when deciding who to take this year. 

Its difficult to project with U18s let alone key forward prospects. Last year Lemmey and Scully were the talk of the town and they look to be late draft/rookie prospects currently, while Cadman wasn't initially part of the AIS squad and was playing most of his footy on the wing.

As it stands Archer Reid (201cm) and Nate Caddy (190cm but allegedly grown past that) are the two front runners that will be in the open pool. Jed Walters (194cm) played some solid footy this year and was the only one of two bottom agers to make the AA team, the other being Harley Reid. However he is part of Gold Coasts academy.

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14 hours ago, BAMF said:

We need a tall forward. Without a doubt. Jefferson is the right age, right height and will likely be picked up around our first pick in the draft.

Is he actually good enough though? What if we get to 2025 and Jefferson is a bust? Most will back in Jason Taylor to make the correct decision. I just hope it's not a case of 'we needed a tall and he was what was available at the time'. Which is how I feel about the Lucas Cook draft pick.

He could be a bust, you're right. Picking a player at 14 in any year has a risk at that. Pick 14 over the history has a 90 average games played compared to, lets say a pick 5, that has 125 average games. In the same area of the draft we have Hewitt who has behavior issues and might not get a game considering our midfield depth, and he might go home in 2 years. We have Ed Allan who might not get a game either and go home to WA. We might pick Cowen which looks like a awesome Hibbo replacement. He might go to the new Tassie team in 2 or 3 years time. There's a lot of hypotheticals.

But one things for sure, is that the people who watch every under 18 game, say that he has enormous upside, scoreboard impact  and a ridiculously good reading of the ball in flight to dominate aerially. They also point out his lack of strength and physicality but that can hopefully be easily ticked off in time, which is why he's rated a mid to late 1st round pick rather than Cadman who's rated top 3. While we're contending, we ain't getting a top 3 pick. That's why equalisation is in place, so a team like us doesn't get a Cadman. Jefferson isn't perfect, but no one at pick 14 will be.

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35 minutes ago, xman97 said:

He could be a bust, you're right. Picking a player at 14 in any year has a risk at that. Pick 14 over the history has a 90 average games played compared to, lets say a pick 5, that has 125 average games. In the same area of the draft we have Hewitt who has behavior issues and might not get a game considering our midfield depth, and he might go home in 2 years. We have Ed Allan who might not get a game either and go home to WA. We might pick Cowen which looks like a awesome Hibbo replacement. He might go to the new Tassie team in 2 or 3 years time. There's a lot of hypotheticals.

But one things for sure, is that the people who watch every under 18 game, say that he has enormous upside, scoreboard impact  and a ridiculously good reading of the ball in flight to dominate aerially. They also point out his lack of strength and physicality but that can hopefully be easily ticked off in time, which is why he's rated a mid to late 1st round pick rather than Cadman who's rated top 3. While we're contending, we ain't getting a top 3 pick. That's why equalisation is in place, so a team like us doesn't get a Cadman. Jefferson isn't perfect, but no one at pick 14 will be.

Jefferson isn't going to be ready to play the way we want in the short term. Therefore he is a long term tall forward prospect. There are other options when you are looking long term. Next year's draft or a trade later on.  

My point with the bust comment is more around picking Jefferson at 14 means we are less likely to pick/trade a tall forward next year.

The problem is that we are in a position where we need to make the call as soon as possible. I'm not opposed to picking him. I really want a tall and hope he is the answer. I wouldn't be opposed to picking up an additional tall forward next year regardless of us picking Jefferson.

I just can't see him making an impact for a long time. Defenders at VFL level won't allow him to do what he did in his highlights let alone at the top level.

And just for clarification... I'm not saying he won't make it. If he gets picked up then I will back JT in. His record demands it. I'm just having my 2cents based on the limited footage that is available which I'm entitled to.

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20 minutes ago, BAMF said:

Jefferson isn't going to be ready to play the way we want in the short term. Therefore he is a long term tall forward prospect. There are other options when you are looking long term. Next year's draft or a trade later on.  

My point with the bust comment is more around picking Jefferson at 14 means we are less likely to pick/trade a tall forward next year.

The problem is that we are in a position where we need to make the call as soon as possible. I'm not opposed to picking him. I really want a tall and hope he is the answer. I wouldn't be opposed to picking up an additional tall forward next year regardless of us picking Jefferson.

I just can't see him making an impact for a long time. Defenders at VFL level won't allow him to do what he did in his highlights let alone at the top level.

And just for clarification... I'm not saying he won't make it. If he gets picked up then I will back JT in. His record demands it. I'm just having my 2cents based on the limited footage that is available which I'm entitled to.

Yeh mate 100%, I know what you mean. I definately would rather a more imposing physical key forward, don’t get me wrong. I do see heaps of upside though and his footy IQ is high already. Like you, I also wouldn’t mind us picking another key forward next year. At this stage, it looks like only 2 or 3 key forwards in the 1st round, so it’s not a given that we can land one of them. I just hope we draft one soon as I can see a Collingwood situation of the past few years happening where they didn’t invest in a key forward early in a draft so they’ve been stuck with B graders as key forwards for years! It’s a good example of how hard it is sometimes to trade for a gun key forward. They’re the biggest club in the country also! 
 

Lets trust JT and his crew to make the right call as they’ve watched Jefferson a lot more than we have.

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3 hours ago, Mach5 said:

I think Jefferson has a chance to slide into the 20s... and we still wouldn’t take him. I just don’t think he has demonstrated he has the tricks to justify such an early pick. Nice hands, nice kick, tall... what else? 

I cannot believe the negativity on this site regarding M.J The "nice hands , nice kick" is a bloody briliant start if you ask me.

In fact he has a great leap and clunks marks in contested situations, something Sam Weideman hardly ever did. He is Brave and will back into a pack. He is a very accurate kick for goal. He can conjure something from nothing, and he can find space where there should not be any. Other than that he wants to learn and will listen to his coaches. He will put on some weight and strength in the next few seasons. Is that enough?? I think it is. To turn this convo around, if we dont take him and he turns out to be a GUN, I will for one be on the warpath, so will a few other posters around here and the Footy Dept will RUE a lost chance. And before anyone asks if I have seen him play live, The answer is yes.

Edited by picket fence
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2 hours ago, picket fence said:

To turn this convo around, if we dont take him and he turns out to be a GUN, I will for one be on the warpath, so will a few other posters around here and the Footy Dept will RUE a lost chance. 

Jeez Picket you must be exhausted from all the warpaths you must have been on over the years if stuffing up picks is your criteria. 

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3 hours ago, picket fence said:

I cannot believe the negativity on this site regarding M.J The "nice hands , nice kick" is a bloody briliant start if you ask me.

In fact he has a great leap and clunks marks in contested situations, something Sam Weideman hardly ever did. He is Brave and will back into a pack. He is a very accurate kick for goal. He can conjure something from nothing, and he can find space where there should not be any. Other than that he wants to learn and will listen to his coaches. He will put on some weight and strength in the next few seasons. Is that enough?? I think it is. To turn this convo around, if we dont take him and he turns out to be a GUN, I will for one be on the warpath, so will a few other posters around here and the Footy Dept will RUE a lost chance. And before anyone asks if I have seen him play live, The answer is yes.

The trouble Picket some posters ( eg Mach 5) want the finished product of a draftee at 18/19 and also concentrate on some alleged or minor defects which most often can be developed or trained for.  
MY previous post on why we should embrace and take MJ sums up his good points snd I believe he has the attributes as a base of a very good footballer and also the odd elite trick that separates him from  C/ B grader like Sam Weid. 

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On 11/9/2022 at 9:45 PM, monoccular said:

Of course …. and some will turn out to be right, others wrong. 

The misuse / misunderstanding of this word on this forum dates back at least to Brett Grgic and later Jack Watts who both appeared lackadaisical. I don’t know enough about their manner of speaking. 

I think there were also many who wanted the slick skinny guy rather that the plump redhead 🙄

“…to be a KPF in our forward line you need to have at least some level of physicality and strength”

However we did win a Premiership with BBB as a KPF forward who doesn’t exactly meet your criteria.  Just saying  

 

Cadman is meant to be physical yet there wasn’t a lot of footage of him taking contested marks. Look at the Hawks when they had Rough, Bruest and Gunston, none of them overly physical yet won 4 flags. Attacking the ball is a form of physicality.

Out of interest, how many young KPF kicking bags of goals most week paid a lot of attention to the defensive side of their game.

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