Jump to content

Discussion on recent allegations about the use of illicit drugs in football is forbidden

Axis of Bob

Life Member
  • Posts

    2,907
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    21

Everything posted by Axis of Bob

  1. Nah, that's not it. You just wanted to shoehorn in a way to dunk on an ex-player, Oscar McDonald, for no good reason other than that you seem to hate him. He's played AFL footy at 3 clubs despite being cruelled by some very serious injuries, including fighting his way through the VFL despite having spinal fusion surgeries. He also seems like lovely guy and a really weird played to have a grudge against.
  2. He got rid of noted plodding mids James Jordon, Taylor Adams and brought in speedster Dylan Stephens. …..wait …. Sorry …. he actually brought in the plodders and got rid of the speedster.
  3. Which is why it’s important to get the better player into the team early in the year so that he can build confidence and chemistry with the other defenders. It’s not like Tomlinson, who has played fewer than 10 games a season since he came to Melbourne 5 years ago, has suddenly been blindsided that he’s a fringe AFL player. I think that’s the nub of it. We think one player is better than the other, so we’re picking who we think is the best player.
  4. I can't believe the hand wringing about dropping Tomlinson. Actually, that's not entirely true; I've been here long enough. Tomlinson was outpointed positionally several times last week but was saved by the slippery conditions on several occasions. No basic level key defender should be beaten defensively on that postage stamp ground in slippery conditions, so being serviceable last week is no particular recommendation. There were 3 contested marks taken by forwards all game and they were all Sydney players - it was an easy day to be a defensive tall defender. The point is that Tomlinson's game was fine enough but not exactly a defence for him being replaced by a better option. If TMac comes in it's because he's a better footballer than Tomlinson. TMac is slow but he's certainly no slower than Tomlinson, and TMac is much better at everything else. Did Tomlinson deserve to be dropped? It doesn't matter because we're selecting a team to win this week. Whether a fringe veteran 'deserves a game' isn't relevant because that isn't how you select a team, you select a team to win the match you're playing.
  5. Has that classic “I decided to go back to footy because I just love hitting people” style. Love it.
  6. https://www.afl.com.au/aflw/news/1072208/aflw-draft-ryleigh-wotherspoon-multi-sport-athlete-cricket-soccer-softball-melbourne-brisbane Classic Smokey play at 12. Rayleigh Wotherspoon wasn’t even on Sarah Black’s late mail names for consideration!
  7. We’ve got a lot of aerial power but you need a forward line that can create goals even when things are messy. Pisano looks like a strong, powerful player that can use her legs and kick to create scores even when the game is messy, like finals often are. Certainly seems like the right type of player to be adding to the group.
  8. It's kind of depressing watching some people here who have so much of their identity wrapped up in Melbourne being terrible that they desperately want to pretend we're not good. It's really sad.
  9. If Kyah Farris-White develops superhuman speed and flight this preseason then he'll probably win the Brownlow. Am I doing this right?
  10. Only 8 West Aussies first rounders have gone home since 2010. Of those only two players drafted in the 8 drafts post 2013 (up to 2021) have returned back to WA. Those players were Luke Jackson (2019 draft) and Sam Petrevski-Seton (2016 draft - traded for a 3rd round pick at the end of 2021). The only player that has gone back to WA in the past decade that the original team tried hard to keep is Luke Jackson. Drafting for a Victorian team is easy because everyone wants to come here and nobody wants to leave.
  11. It's interesting because there's a lot of that. One of the more interesting things is that more players are drafted from Victoria than other states, so the number of 'flight risks' that need to be taken is also much lower, which was particularly true the further back in time you go. Also, the vast majority of the 'return home' players were those returning to Victoria from other states. Of the 54 players who 'came home', 34 of them were players returning to Victoria (which is 63% of all 'Go home' players, 9 (17%) being players who left Victoria to go to their home state, and the remaining 11 (20%) being players who left a non-Vic club to go to their non-Vic home state. The other interesting thing is how this has changed over time. 20 (out of 34) of the players returning to Victoria did so between 2010 and 2012. Since then only 14 Victrorian first round picks have returned home across the 9 drafts between 2013-2021. Post-2014 no more that two Victorian first rounders have returned home in any given year (and only 1 in total post 2018). I think that there are some players that can't take being away from home and will return however it's generally a very small minority. There were large chunks leaving GC and GWS early in the decade because they were bad clubs that didn't have the culture to retain their best players consistently. They also missed with a lot of their picks and those players got second chances for a small price in Victoria (where the most clubs are). There are now more players in northern state being drafted too (There was only one player, Trent Stubbs, drafted from QLD or NSW in the entire 2010 draft vs 6 in the 2023 first round alone!!). Despite all the talk, the trend for players wanting to go home is definitely downwards. Melbourne just happened to be on the wrong side of an anomaly.
  12. Because once Melksham recovers then he'll come off the LTI list and goes back on to the senior list. Drafting him as a rookie means that he will be on the rookie list once he recovers.
  13. There’s a lot more to this than the ’54 first rounders have gone home’ headline. It’s 19% of first round draftees, which sounds alarming but I ran some of the numbers myself. The data is extremely heavily skewed by a few things. Firstly Gold Coast/GWS. 56% of all the first rounders (30 in total) who went home had been drafted to either GWS or Gold Coast, with only 24 of ‘go home’ players leaving other clubs. Victorian teams have the best retention of all clubs, with each club on average only having lost 0.9 first round players across that 12 year span. This equates to an 8% chance (0.08 player per year) of any particular Victorian club losing a draftee in any individual draft year (compared with Gold Coast/GWS who lost an average of 1.25 first round picks per year to their native state). Those players who ‘went home’ from Victoria were: Reece Conca (106 of his 150 games at Richmond), Jamie Cripps (16/228 at St Kilda), Troy Menzel (40/44 at Carlton), Jimmy Toumpas (who was basically delisted, 27/37 at Melbourne), Blake Acres (who didn’t want to be traded and returned to Victoria, 75/145 at St Kilda), Ryan Burton (who didn’t want to be traded, 47/139 at Hawthorn), Sam Petrevski-Seton (94/121 at Carlton), Luke Jackson (52/75 at Melbourne) and Jason Horne-Francis (17/41 at North). If you look at that list there are really only a couple of ‘we were desperate to keep them players’, being Cripps, Jackson and Horne Francis …. Which equates to one good Victorian first rounder going home every 4 years. Secondly, the data is heavily skewed by the first 3 years of the sample (2010-2012), where a total of 29 players went home, whilst only 25 went home in the next 9 years. The return home rate reduced by 70% after 2012 (0.17 players/club/year) compared with that from 2010-12 (0.54 p/c/y). These were due to the GWS/GC start up priority draft selections where they had great difficulty retaining those players, with GC and GWS losing an average of 8 first rounders each to ‘go home’ across those 3 years. Post 2012, a Victorian club loses 0.06 ‘go home’ first rounders per year …. Only 5 in total, and this includes those that were traded reluctantly (2 of the 5) and one that was given away cheaply. Basically, the go home factor for Victorian clubs is mostly non-existent. It’s slightly higher for WA and SA clubs, Sydney and Brisbane (0.13 players lost/year) and much higher for GC and GWS (0.88 players lost/year) but it is far lower than it was during the formative years in 2010-2012. In short, despite Jackson leaving, I wouldn’t worry much about it. I’ve got my working below for anyone interested.
  14. I have some sympathy for Jasper. ESPN would have required him to do a rating grade for the draft (it's very much part of their brand) and there really isn't any way that you can rate a draft immediately afterwards without knowing where everybody rated each player. ESPN has put him in a really terrible position in order to generate clicks. The only way that you can rate it is by doing so against your own ratings, which is what he's done. He rated Curtin highly, so when we passed on him we picked a player he didn't rate as highly (Windsor at 19), whilst Adelaide got Curtin which means he'd rate our draft result lower and theirs higher. The ratings are just for clicks and to generate arguments, so I wouldn't hold against the author.
  15. I don't have many strong opinions about who we take at 6 but I certainly wouldn't be upset with Windsor.
  16. I think it’s important to note that there’s a difference between ‘didn’t’ win much contested footy and ‘can’t’ win contested footy. Windsor played wing all year and appears to have done so with a lot of discipline. That role will inevitably result in a low contest rate if it’s played properly. When it’s his turn to go he does win contests and I think that the 30% contest rate needs to be considered in this context. If he played as a true mid the numbers might mean something but for a wingman it doesn’t make much sense. The impressive thing about Windsor isn’t just his speed but his ability to use that speed properly. He makes quick decisions to carry the ball and get it forward before teams can set their defence, which is super valuable against disciplined AFL teams. He also uses his speed to defend and is very disciplined. He already plays the game at AFL tempo. He’s a very impressive footballer.
  17. He does have flaws that are important but I totally agree about the Simon Black syndrome aspect. The things he does well are exceptionally good. I think he's got the best chance of all the players likely to be available at our pick to be a genuine star. I prefer him as a midfielder than as a key defender but even his worst case probably see him become a very composed and competent defender.
  18. I think that if we have a player that we want now then why would we risk possibly maybe getting something slightly better next year? If we like Curtin (or another) at 6 this year and want that player, why not just take them? If we don't really rate the players at 6 then sure, trade it away for a lottery ticket, but if we do rate them then grab one you want.
  19. I was with you at the start of your post about Curnow, but this last part is very different to my observations of Caddy. Curnow slipped and I think you're right that it was very little to do with the drink driving and almost entirely about questions regarding whether he could play key forward at AFL level with his size ("only" 192cm) or whether he'd have to be a midfielder/flanker. Ironically, the exact issues people are discussing with Caddy. As for talking about Caddy's athleticism, I think you're completely wrong. Caddy is a very athletic and powerful player, which are some of his real strengths. He jumps at the ball, is strong at ground level and strong defensively. He is a powerful kick over distance and wins contests that are very difficult to win. Like Curnow he plays taller because he's got long arms. I think you've misjudged his ability because you've started at the wrong spot with his power and athleticism.
  20. This isn't true. O'Sullivan played forward for the first few games this year before moving into defence.
  21. I don't think it's 'someone', but rather that there are a range of players. Taylor has said that he thinks of the draft in tiers/groups of talented players that he'd be happy to select from. He clearly sees this the cutoff of a talent tier as being between picks 11 and 14, and he'd rather get a chance to select one of the good players rather than one of the other players.
  22. Lamb specifically said that we want to play Petty and JVR together as our key forwards next year because they worked really well together this year when they played together.
  23. What was also said is that Taylor believes that the difference in quality between 14 and 11 was quite significant, which is indicated by the price paid to move those picks. There's obviously a big difference between the top 15 (including Academy/FS picks) and then there's a big drop off in quality after that. We've got two picks in that top group, which they're really happy with.
×
×
  • Create New...