MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - ROUND 20

[Demonland 72,230]

THE TWENTIETH ROUND by The Oracle

Melbourne wasted yet another opportunity to establish a strong grip on a top eight placing for 2017 last week and, as a result, is back among a large pack of clubs contesting against each other for a spot on one of the lower rungs in the finals series. 

Whether it was a case of stage fright, tiredness or something else, the Demons really blew it after taking the lead against the Kangaroos halfway through the final quarter with a strong breeze at their backs. They desperately missed the presence of experienced heads like co-captain Nathan Jones out with a quad injury and fellow leader Bernie Vince who was serving a two-match suspension after his second indiscretion this season. Both are likely to return this week along with another tall to replace Jesse Hogan who is out with a broken collarbone. The Giants also have their share of injury problems so there are no excuses on either side. 

The Giants will open as firm favourites in this twentieth round of the season and the memory of the Demons' last outing on this track when they kicked 14 out of the last 15 goals of the game would seem to justify this although that game took place two years ago and the visitors have matured as a team since then. More pertinent is the fact that GWS can hardly claim to be in form at the present time and they also have more injury worries than Jeremy Cameron to contend with in the lead up to the game. 

Melbourne has to deal with the demons inside their heads - will they come out as the quick starters of the Port Adelaide game or will it be the sleepy slow opening that we witnessed up in Darwin a few weeks ago? 

That may well be the key to this game but I think there is also some significance in the fact that this game comes on the Saturday afternoon of the twentieth round of the season exactly twelve months after the Demons announced themselves as a team of the future by coming in as the underdog against the premiership favourites Hawthorn without key forward Jesse Hogan and beating them hands down. That was the day that Sam Weideman made his debut for the club and a number of other young Demons excelled on the big stage. Although Manuka is not as big a stage as the MCG, I have this feeling in my bones that history is about to repeat itself.

THE GAME

Melbourne v GWS Giants at Manuka Oval, Saturday 5 August, 2017 at 1.45pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall  GWS Giants 4 wins, Melbourne 5 wins
At Manuka Oval  GWS Giants 1 win, Melbourne 1 win
Past five meetings GWS Giants 3 wins, Melbourne 2 wins 
The Coaches Cameron 0 wins, Goodwin 0 wins

MEDIA

TV – Fox Footy Channel Live at 1.40pm

RADIO - SEN

THE BETTING

GWS Giants to win - $1.48, Melbourne to win - $2.65

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 12.8.80 d GWS Giants 10.18.78 at The MCG, Round 1, 2016

Melbourne came back from the dead with a six goal final quarter thanks to some late goal kicking heroics from Jesse Hogan. Jack Viney (32 possessions) was best afield for the Demons and was ably supported by Nathan Jones and first-gamer Clayton Oliver in the middle.

THE TEAMS

GWS GIANTS 

B: Zac Williams, Adam Tomlinson, Nathan Wilson 
HB: Nick Haynes, Phil Davis, Heath Shaw 
C: Tom Scully, Callan Ward, Lachie Whitfield 
HF: Devon Smith, Rory Lobb, Harrison Himmelberg
F:  Dylan Shiel, Steve Johnson, Matt de Boer 
FOLL: Shane Mumford, Jacob Hopper, Matthew Kennedy 
I/C: Stephen Coniglio, Aidan Corr,    Brett Deledio, Josh Kelly 
EMG: Daniel Lloyd, Harry Perryman, Dawson Simpson  

IN: Brett Deledio, Harrison Himmelberg, Jacob Hopper, Steve Johnson, Shane Mumford 

OUT: Jeremy Cameron (hamstring), Jonathon Patton (hamstring tightness), Harry Perryman (omitted), Will Setterfield (concussion), Dawson Simpson (omitted) 

NEW: Brett Deledio (Richmond)

MELBOURNE

B: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Neville Jetta 
HB: Jordan Lewis, Sam Frost, Michael Hibberd 
C: Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince, Christian Salem 
HF: Clayton Oliver, Cameron Pedersen, Alex Neal-Bullen 
F: Jeff Garlett, Tom McDonald, James Harmes 
FOLL: Max Gawn, Jack Viney, Nathan Jones 
I/C: Corey Maynard, Jake Melksham, Christian Petracca, Jack Watts
EMG: Billy Stretch, Josh Wagner, Sam Weideman  

IN: Nathan Jones, Corey Maynard, Cameron Pedersen, Bernie Vince

OUT: Mitch Hannan (rested), Jesse Hogan (shoulder), Jay Kennedy-Harris (omitted), Jack Trengove (omitted) 

NEW: Corey Maynard

So it's crunch time for the Demons who face a tough battle on enemy soil to maintain their spot in the top eight. 

The two teams have been hit hard by injury and suspension in recent months and both will be buoyed by the return of some important members of their respective teams while, at the same time, they will each miss their injured spearheads in Jeremy Cameron and Jesse Hogan.

The Giants welcome back veterans in ruckman Shane Mumford and forward Steve Johnson and have included former Tiger Brett Deledio for the first time having missed most of the season battling persistent calf injuries. The Demons have also brought in some experienced heads with co-skipper Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince and Cam Pedersen and given a mature age rookie and convert from basketball, Corey Maynard his first opportunity. The experience of Jones and Vince was sorely missed last week and might well have made the difference between winning and losing in Hobart.

For some strange reason Melbourne often plays at its best when it's not favoured to win so they will relish being the underdog in this game. They come up against a tough opponent with the Giants ranked as the number one clearance side in the competition in 2017 at an average of 42.3 per game (the Demons are third at 38.8). 
That makes for an exciting contest in the middle where youngster Clayton Oliver is second in the league for contested possessions while the Giants' best is Dylan Shiel (15th). 

The Giants have been strong all year in winning the ruck contests and while this has been a Demon weakened for most of the season, it has been addressed by the return from injury of Max Gawn. 

While there's no doubt that the battle in the middle will be critical, the manner in which each team covers the loss of their main key forward could well determine the outcome. GWS have Johnson at full forward amid rumours of hamstring issues with Jonathon Patton. The Demon backs might struggle if he comes up because they will also have to contain Rory Lobb. They have struggled with tall, strong opponents this year.

The Demons will be hoping for a return to form from Jack Watts who has been quiet since his return.

All in all, a fascinating tussle is on the cards. It could go either way but I'm going for the home team by 18 points. 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

I have no idea what to think about this game.

One one hand, you could argue our last month has been pretty average.  We were poor last week and, outside of the first half against Port, we haven't been playing the brand of footy that had us on fire in the first half of the year.

On the flip side we've enjoyed a challenge, and playing GWS in Canberra is that sort of challenge.  Losing Jesse hurts but we rolled both Adelaide and West Coast on their home turf without him, so I have faith that we can still find plenty of avenues to goal.  Cameron being injured also helps.

I reckon we're a sneaky chance, but if we lose this we still face an uphill battle to play finals.

[Ethan Tremblay 30,878]

I don't know if I can handle watching this game. 

[AzzKikA 2,371]

My very being is telling me to stay away from the TV for this game but my heart is telling me to watch.

My heart is pure evil and loves nothing more than creating pain for my wretched soul.

I will be watching.

[Jibroni 5,004]

This could be a Ying/Yang type match; some moments will be awesome and some probably putrid.

I think it will be close either way, a good test of character after what happened last week.

I wont be able to watch this one which means where a great chance to win

 

 

[SFebes 4,884]

GWS ticker being questioned and our form has certainly been up and down, whatever has gone wrong with the effort and game plan needs to somehow come back. I'm expecting another "meat & 3 veg" day and another tight finish, which I'm getting sick of!

[loges 6,767]

I think this game will show wether we are going to fight and make the finals or meekly let the season slide into oblivion.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,860]

3 hours ago, Demonland said:

the memory of the Demons' last outing on this track when they kicked 14 out of the last 15 goals of the game

Yes, I remember Ben Newton kicking a goal at the 27:50 minute mark of the second quarter to put us up 7.3.45 to 1.6.12. There after it was one of Melbourne's finest collapses of recent years.

Let's hope we put in a much improved performance up there this time around. 

[Brownie 5,981]

3 hours ago, loges said:

I think this game will show wether we are going to fight and make the finals or meekly let the season slide into oblivion.

season defining? ?

[McQueen 17,865]

4 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

I don't know if I can handle watching this game. 

I thought the same thing last week.

At least I'm better prepared this week.

[buck_nekkid 5,879]

By letting a few key games get away throughout the year, it is perform or perish every week from here.  Our form has been well down for the last 4 weeks, including the mythical 'winning the contest'.  We had been awful going inside 50, and are simply not scoring enough.  Hopefully we can turn that around.  Otherwise we might just be the new ninthmond.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we won this one.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

This has nothing to do with this thread but I need to vent.......F%^K I hate Norf and every dill that supports them.

[old55 23,625]

5 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

I don't know if I can handle watching this game. 

I think I'll go to Sandy v Casey and watch the replay.

[dl4e 5,851]

Jones playing should make a huge difference in the positive for our side.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,860]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-02/how-do-the-dees-replace-hogan

Guthrie thinks Weed will get the nod over Pedo while Maynard is firming for a debut.

IN - Weed, Maynard, Jones, Vince

Out - Hogan, Trengove, JFK, Hannan (rested)

[JV7 2,351]

We'll win don't worry...

Confident enough that I'm making the trek up to Canberra 

[Pates 9,660]

Absolute 50/50 this game. We could play like we did against Adelaide, and get a fantastic win or we could play like we did last weekend and suffer a big loss that puts us behind the 8 ball. 

Looking for a BIG game from Watts. He was poor his first game back and from all reports practically unsighted against the Roos. No more excuses of "returning from injury", he's a senior player and very important one. Time for him to get back to form. 

I'm cautiously optimistic, I feel similarly to how I felt against Port. But it really is huge for both teams.

Edited August 2, 2017 by Pates

[What 18,810]

4 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

This has nothing to do with this thread but I need to vent.......F%^K I hate Norf and every dill that supports them.

This kind of sentiment is welcome in any thread.

[Skuit 10,031]

It's evident we rise to the occasion and play better against stronger teams. My concern though is the dinky oval. We seem pretty flat out in the boondocks without a roaring crowd (2nd half vs. GC withstanding) and have the type of game that feeds off adrenaline. Some biff might be handy - we put the gloves away after Bugg and seem the worse for it. I have no idea how this one will go.

[binman 43,135]

4 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-02/how-do-the-dees-replace-hogan

Guthrie thinks Weed will get the nod over Pedo while Maynard is firming for a debut.

IN - Weed, Maynard, Jones, Vince

Out - Hogan, Trengove, JFK, Hannan (rested)

I think he'll prove to be correct. Goodwin has shown all season a preparedness to make brave selections - Hannan, Smith x 2, White (selected for different reasons) and Weed early on.

Maynard's game is a perfect fit for Goodwin's contest out mantra and i think he will give the Weed the chance to stamp himself an AFL player. I suspect both will take their chances. 

[DemonOX 8,791]

Last season we needed to beat both Carlton and Geelong to have a chance to make finals and we all know what happened there. 

I hope this season that we  dont fold under the pressure again as we really need to win the last four games to guarantee a finals spot. 

These next four weeks will show if we have improved between the ears imo. 

[At the break of Gawn 4,460]

Team as a whole is going through patchy form and the stats from Rnd15 onwards compared to Rnds 10-14 (our best period) are pretty damning. Is it Gawn being back which is disrupting things? (as silly as that sounds) was it Jones missing? Was it a combination of Watts, Hogan, Tyson and Viney missing games? Who knows... but, a whole suite of players need to stand-up this weekend if we are going to turn the corner and make the finals. 

[jumbo returns 6,741]

12 hours ago, AzzKikA said:

My very being is telling me to stay away from the TV for this game but my heart is telling me to watch.

My heart is pure evil and loves nothing more than creating pain for my wretched soul.

I will be watching.

It's like staring at 'The Kramer'

[GoD's67 111]

There comes a time when you have to go what the f... , this year, this round vs GWS is the time!

We didn't take the opportunity to use the easy option last week, using the breeze in Q4, so this week no excuses.

We have to win and there is 10 players who really need a major lift on last week.