MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 12

[Demonland 72,448]

UNDER THE BRIDGE by Whispering Jack

A lot of water has flowed under the proverbial bridge since a game between Melbourne and Collingwood has carried with it as much significance as the forthcoming Queens Birthday contest between these traditional rivals.

They were at once the yin and yang or 陰陽 of our great Australian sport; one standing for the well to do at the top of the town, the other representing the downtrodden masses from a nearby industrialised inner city suburb. They were seemingly opposite or contrary forces but like light and darkness, black and white, fire and water, red and blue; they were complementary, interconnected, and interdependent. 

All that ended half a century ago when Melbourne fell into the abyss and while Collingwood remained mainly in the upper reaches of the competition, it more often than not floundered when put to the sword. 

Other rivalries flourished and the world changed. The interrelationship ended and though from time to time their paths crossed in big games, it was rare that both were on the same plane at the same time. This week however, we see them locked together in a real battle for ascendency. If Collingwood wins, the teams will change places - if Melbourne wins, it moves into the top eight and has its first real opportunity in over a decade to make a full-fisted challenge for a place in the AFL finals. 

The game is that important.

With thanks to the bye, the Magpies have made all the running while the Demons have remained inconspicuously out of sight. The Pies won their third game in a row last Sunday in the West against a faltering Fremantle and suddenly, the media was full on Collingwood. They were everywhere and in the eyes of their fans, a trip to the finals (if not the premiership itself) suddenly became a cakewalk, notwithstanding the inconvenience of a few injuries here or there. These things mean nothing as long as the team has a midfield ranked at the top of the tree by Champion Data at the start of the season and due to lock horns with the bottom of the barrel Demon equivalent sitting at #18. 

What's more, Eddie McGuire continues to assure us that his club owns the MCG, a ground where Melbourne has only won once this year from five attempts. And he has a wealth of top secret information about the opposition at his fingertips courtesy of former Demons Jeremy Howe and Lynden Dunn. The latter happens to also be thriving now that he's part of a "real successful club", according to the Pies' resident genius Taylor Adams.

Hell, after that I'm scratching my head trying to uncover some way in which the Demons can turn back time by half a century and win a really important game against the Magpies. I know there has to be a way - perhaps I can figure it out by the time a little more water flows under that bridge when team selection is announced.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Collingwood at MCG Monday 12 June 2017 at 3.20pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 82 wins Collingwood 146 wins 5 drawn

At the MCG Melbourne 62 wins Collingwood 79 wins 3 drawn

Last Five Meetings Melbourne 3 wins Collingwood 2 wins 

The Coaches: Goodwin 0 wins Buckley 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Channel 7 Fox Footy Channel (Live at 3.00pm)

Radio Triple M 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Melbourne $1.55 to win Collingwood $2.45 to win

LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 16.8.104 defeated Collingwood 8.10.58 at MCG in Round 12, 2016

Bernie Vince was unstoppable with more than 40 touches and Nathan Jones was not that far behind. Both were given an armchair ride by Max Gawn who not only amassed plenty of hit outs to advantage but picked up 27 possessions which is massive for a big man in our modern game.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE 

B: Jayden Hunt, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta
HB: Michael Hibberd, Sam Frost, Jordan Lewis
C: Christian Salem, Clayton Oliver, Nathan Jones
HF: Dom Tyson, Jack Watts, Mitch Hannan
F: Alex Neal-Bullen, Christian Petracca, Jeff Garlett
FOLL: Cam Pedersen, Bernie Vince, Jack Viney
I/C: Tomas Bugg, James Harmes, Oscar McDonald, Jake Melksham
EMG: Jay Kennedy-Harris, Jake Spencer, Josh Wagner

IN: Christian Salem

OUT: Josh Wagner

COLLINGWOOD 

B: Jeremy Howe,  Lynden Dunn,  Brayden Maynard 
HB: Josh Smith, Tom Langdon, Matthew Scharenberg 
C: Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury,  Tom Phillips 
HF: Jordan De Goey, Alex Fasolo, Will Hoskin-Elliott 
F: Callum Brown, Darcy Moore, Tim Broomhead 
FOLL: Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams,  Adam Treloar 
I/C: James Aish, Jack Crisp, Ben Crocker, Levi Greenwood
EMG: Mason Cox, Chris Mayne, Jackson Ramsay 

IN: James Aish, Callum Brown, Alex Fasolo, Tom Langdon

OUT: Jamie Elliott (ankle), Tyson Goldsack (shoulder), Jackson Ramsay (omitted), Daniel Wells (calf) 

NEW: Callum Brown

We are at the half way mark of the season and, despite some of the disappointing setbacks incurred by the team to date, I think it can be truthfully said for the Melbourne Football Club that the sky is the limit.

There is one thing that currently stands between it and a place within the top eight and that is its inability to put together a full on consistent four quarter performance in any given match of football. The problem has been its inability to make a good start to a game, even when up against what is perceived to be weaker opposition. 

The past four games are all cases in point. The team trailed by 27 points against the Hawks at quarter time and failed to make any inroads into that deficit by half time. Two weeks later, they were 26 points behind the Kangaroos at the first break and in their game against the Suns in Alice Springs they were down until late in the third quarter, at one stage by as much as five goals. In between that, Melbourne headed Adelaide at quarter time but midway through the second term it was 28 points in arrears before a 69 point turnaround.

The pattern has been evident throughout the season starting in Round 1 against the Saints. In two games - against Geelong and Richmond - the normally faster finishing Demons were crippled by injuries and understandably faded at the end. 

One is left to wonder about the consequences of conceding leads of up to five goals early in games and then putting in a massive effort to get back to even terms. Does the effort required to play catch up football week in, week out have an effect on the way a team approaches the start of its next games?

How is that a team that crushes the top-of-the ladder Crows on their home turf can turn up a week later and make such an insipid start to a game against the Kangaroos?

This week the club is pitted against a Collingwood that should have beaten the Giants a month ago and then followed that performance up with three wins on the trot. Admittedly those victories have been against Hawthorn, Brisbane and Fremantle (two teams that Melbourne failed to win against) but at least they've been a model of consistency.

They have lost big time at selection with injuries to Jamie Elliot, Daniel Wells and Tyson Goldsack but that simply makes them look vulnerable and we know Melbourne's record against teams that have looked vulnerable this year.

The game itself looks like being won in the middle where both sides are ranked in the top five this season for clearances. Melbourne is second in winning the contested ball, behind only Adelaide. The Pies will have the obvious advantage in the ruck but I expect Melbourne to have them covered in both defence and attack and if somehow, they can come out firing and make a good start to the game, they should win comfortably.

Melbourne by 20 points

[DubDee 25,962]

Massive game. The pies defence is poor especially without Reid. If we break even in the middle then we should get on top. Will Trac love the big stage?? I reckon he might

[Goodvibes 3,596]

I feel more confident now that Vince has confirmed that "we're expecting their best".

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,252]

1 hour ago, Goodvibes said:

I feel more confident now that Vince has confirmed that "we're expecting their best".

Indeed, much relieved.

[ManDee 7,162]

When was the last match that we did not expect their best?

A motherhood statement, anyhow I hope we give it a red hot go, give 110%, play 4 quarters and above all turn up to play. 

 

[beelzebub 23,380]

On 2017-6-7 at 8:22 AM, ManDee said:

When was the last match that we did not expect their best?

A motherhood statement, anyhow I hope we give it a red hot go, give 110%, play 4 quarters and above all turn up to play. 

 

Be happy with 4qtrs @ 99%

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Will be happy with a 60 point belting in front of 85,000 people, and Dunn and Howe being reported for cheap shots in the final quarter, each of which managed to draw nothing more than laughter from the Demon 'impacted' and his mates near the play.

( ... I like Dunn, for what it's worth.)

 

[whatwhat say what 22,783]

callum brown to debut for the pies

[The Chazz 4,077]

Hogan not playing, and Spencer likely to return via Casey.

[qwerty7 326]

Fasolo has also put his hand up for selection. Good to hear he is feeling mentally a bit better

[beelzebub 23,380]

11 minutes ago, qwerty7 said:

Fasolo has also put his hand up for selection. Good to hear he is feeling mentally a bit better

Good luck to the bloke.

Find it rather surprising tbh.

[MudDogs Gawn Win.. someday 499]

1 hour ago, Ron Burgundy said:

Will be happy with a 60 point belting in front of 85,000 people, and Dunn and Howe being reported for cheap shots in the final quarter, each of which managed to draw nothing more than laughter from the Demon 'impacted' and his mates near the play.

( ... I like Dunn, for what it's worth.)

 

I'd be more confident with Dunn out there for us than Oscar

[Lord Travis 10,749]

Elliot out is massive for them. Fasolo back is a danger, as he can fire up and kick 4-5 goals. If we can curb him then the Pies won't have many avenues to goal. At this stage Moore is not a big goal kicker, and I doubt their midfield will be able to chime in with enough to win. 

I'm feeling more confident than I should about Monday now. Let's grab those 4 points and jump into the top 8!

[Lucifers Hero 40,005]

1 hour ago, qwerty7 said:

Fasolo has also put his hand up for selection. Good to hear he is feeling mentally a bit better

You just hope that he didn't do it out of guilt or feeling he is letting the team down in a time of need.  Generally, that would only worsen his condition.

I reckon if it was mfc, Mahoney and co would say 'thanks mate, but look after yourself first' (as we have with Hogan and Brayshaw).  Hope Collingwood do something similar with Fasolo but it may too hard for them given their and Buckley's predicament.

[qwerty7 326]

Just now, Lucifer's Hero said:

You just hope that he didn't do it out of guilt or feeling he is letting the team down in a time of need.  Generally, that would only worsen his condition.

I reckon if it was mfc, Mahoney and co would say 'thanks mate, but look after yourself first' (as we have with Hogan and Brayshaw).  Hope Collingwood do something similar with Fasolo but it may too hard for them given their and Buckley's predicament.

You really would hope that's not the case as it's so important that he can get his mental health under control. If it is, regardless of Collingwood and Buckley's situation, you have to prioritise and secure the well-being of every player before anything else. It would be hugely disappointing if they were willing to jeopardise this all for a measly four points. 

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

15 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

You just hope that he didn't do it out of guilt or feeling he is letting the team down in a time of need.  Generally, that would only worsen his condition.

I reckon if it was mfc, Mahoney and co would say 'thanks mate, but look after yourself first' (as we have with Hogan and Brayshaw).  Hope Collingwood do something similar with Fasolo but it may too hard for them given their and Buckley's predicament.

Not necessarily, Again, the ownership is on Fasolo to recognise his mental health and what he can manage - remember this is what he does for a living - the onset, the precipitating factors may have nought to do with football...and the recommendation from his psych - would be to engage in activities that facilitate a sense of purpose - return to work programs always advocate for this. 

And guilt if processed correctly is a great motivator and would NOT worsen the condition.

I work in this space for a living... so I think its important to gain accurate information - even on a forum such as this.

[Lucifers Hero 40,005]

If Spencer is named in the squad (which I doubt) it would be insurance for Watts not recovering from his ankle injury not the club playing games (as some posters have implied in other threads).

Not sure which will be worse Watts playing injured and risking more or Spencer playing underdone but we need one or the other. 

[chook fowler 19,459]

Looks like Oscar again if Spencer is not playing - not a great option after last game

[Deeoldfart 8,045]

32 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

You just hope that he didn't do it out of guilt or feeling he is letting the team down in a time of need.  Generally, that would only worsen his condition.

.............................................................

I totally agree LH, but once he crosses the white line he's fit and ready to go. Take no prisoners Melbourne!

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Will they announce our squad tonight? When we played Anzac eve, we had to wait until the Friday or Saturday. Sorry if this has been asked already.

[daisycutter 29,627]

10 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Will they announce our squad tonight? When we played Anzac eve, we had to wait until the Friday or Saturday. Sorry if this has been asked already.

they,ll name 25 with 7 on extended bench. 

the bench will be reduced to 4 on sat most likely

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

8 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

they,ll name 25 with 7 on extended bench. 

the bench will be reduced to 4 on sat most likely

Thanks, it's been a bit of a wait with the bye, becoming eager now. We didn't even get the 25 on the Thursday for the Anzac game.

[Demonland 72,448]

Spencer has been ruled out. Will start at Casey - look for him on Channel 7 on Saturday.

[WA Demon13 39]

Not impressed with the No Spencer call. Bloke is playing for his football life and deserves the chance. He would straighten us up considerabbly instead of risky injury to unrecognised 3rd & 4th string options in McDonald & Watts.

[Wells 11 5,410]

1 hour ago, Danelska said:

Not necessarily, Again, the ownership is on Fasolo to recognise his mental health and what he can manage - remember this is what he does for a living - the onset, the precipitating factors may have nought to do with football...and the recommendation from his psych - would be to engage in activities that facilitate a sense of purpose - return to work programs always advocate for this. 

And guilt if processed correctly is a great motivator and would NOT worsen the condition.

I work in this space for a living... so I think its important to gain accurate information - even on a forum such as this.

I just think its wierd that he comes out about a mental illness (all power to him) but misses,  what was it , one week?? I feel that kind of insults his admission. Why bother coming out with that at all.  if he was going to be fine to go a week or so later? I dont know his particulars nor anything about his situation so its hard to make a really informed comment ...but for others who suffer from the black dog or similar its not a great precedent. ie Out Fasolo  ( 1 week...depression) I hope for HIS sake he's taking care of himself ahead of the club.