Why we will win on Sunday

[KingDingAling 3,659]

We should win, they have a lot out. Sets us up for a charge at the finals, and at the risk of getting ahead of myself - top 4.

[ArtificialWisdom 3,945]

11 minutes ago, SaberFang said:

I really don't like threads like this... yes, I'm fairly confident about Sunday given these factors, but I don't think we should telegraph it. Just strikes me as bad luck if nothing else.

I used to think the media has short memories but i cant get over how many people are jumping for joy about a win against a team that lost by 120 the week before! we essentially beat melbourne of 2012/13. Yeah it was a fantastic game to watch after so much pain and I hope we start to bully lower quality teams like that. However this sudden overwhelming confidence in us beating a potential top 4 side is a but unwarrented. We have a chance no doubt, but its a brave man who tips us to win. Have to say though, in writing this I have never wanted more to be wrong.

[Chris 2,892]

10 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

I used to think the media has short memories but i cant get over how many people are jumping for joy about a win against a team that lost by 120 the week before! we essentially beat melbourne of 2012/13. Yeah it was a fantastic game to watch after so much pain and I hope we start to bully lower quality teams like that. However this sudden overwhelming confidence in us beating a potential top 4 side is a but unwarrented. We have a chance no doubt, but its a brave man who tips us to win. Have to say though, in writing this I have never wanted more to be wrong.

That's just how it works around here, we lose to the Saints and Roos should be sacked along with most of the players as we are deplorable, win against the suns are we are world beaters. It is actually quite fun to watch. As long as the players stop going on the same roller coaster then things will improve. 

[loges 6,286]

This is an even matchup as was the St.Kilda game. The coaching better be a lot better than that effort

[Lord Travis 10,298]

We are a decent chance to win this as its at the G. Bulldogs won't be as good there as Etihad, so if we show up with our intensity it will be a good match.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Lifelong Demon said:

Using the statistics gained from the premiership level attack and defense charts over the last three weeks...

59% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack and defense than their opposition.

22% of the time games are won by teams that are better at defense than their opposition but not attack.

15% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack than their opposition but not defense.

4% of the time games are won by teams who are worse at both attack and defense  (Saints v Demons ).

 

Leading into the game this week under these statistics, Bulldogs would win 22% of the time, Demons 15%.

If you compare only teams in similar spreads (one better at one stat than the other) Bulldogs would win 60%, Demons 40%.

 

Now, my Tipping Spreadsheet had Demons beating Suns by 1 point last week... This week it has Bulldogs beating Demons by 2 points. However, games that have been 4 points or under in my spreadsheet are at about 50% accuracy at the moment... still tweaking the algorithms!

 

Having said all that I am still tipping the Demons to win this one as I think they are in the right frame of mind, the ground is a different size and softness, things are starting to click and its time to beat a top 8 team!

 

You forgot 5% of games that are won by interfering umpires....:) 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Akum said:

We'll win IF ...

... IF we can match them or even beat them in clearances.

... IF we can stop their chains of uncontested possessions out of defence.

They WILL nullify Gawn. Bevo tried it last year when they smashed us, and also in the NAB pre-season when we just beat their reserves. Their aim is to get the ball to land at Gawn's feet where they swarm on it, and their ruckman won't be trying to win taps, he'll just be trying to stop Gawn winning them, and Gawn will get no help from the umpires, Pannell or not. We have to at least match them in clearances when Gawn is nullified and can't give our mids an armchair ride.

And Bevo WILL play a loose man in defence, knowing that Roos is the one coach in the AFL who will let it cut us to shreds the whole game and not man them up. The Dogs have good stats defensively because they rarely turn over the ball in their defence, let alone allow pressure to build by repeat entries - once they win the ball in defence, they're great at moving the ball a long way from their defensive zone by chains of uncontested possessions. When we've played well, we've been good at getting forward-line turnovers and repeat forward entries (why does that sound so wrong???), but if they have an extra man, it will be much harder (wrong too??). If they have a spare man in defence and we man them up (7-on-7), it congests our forward line and makes turnovers more likely than if it was 6-on-6. and makes it harder for them to initiate chains of possession from the half back line.

So, we'll win IF we just don't play into their hands. Otherwise, we'll get smashed.

Good post.

[Radar Detector 1,339]

2 hours ago, The Sailing Demon said:

As the post win optimism flows through our lives we turn our heads to next Sunday at the G.

I will label a few small points as to why I feel we will win this game well.

Their injuries...Murphy, Johannison, Adams, Suckling, Tom Boyd all not playing with reports of a Jake Stringer corky.
This will be the first time this year they haven't played at Etihad (How the hell they get 7 straight home games essentially is beyond me), they haven't played on the wide deck which we are used to.
Fatigue...Their game last week was a lot more physical than ours testing thier players for the whole 4 quarters.

Granted they are a very good team and will go in favourites in recent times we have been pretty even when it comes to wins and losses against this mob.
I feel that if we can bring our second half performance to the G this sunday we will be in the box seat for a 2-4 goal win.

I've seen this movie before...

[JTR 2,683]

Still have nightmares about last seasons game. Yes it was at Etihad, and we have had some personnel changes since, but they ran rings around us. We looked so slow

[daisycutter 28,709]

1 hour ago, praha said:

It's extremely winnable. Bulldogs can't be underrated. They are a good side. 

On the MCG in potentially wet, heavy conditions will work in our favour. Must play the game on our terms.

weather forecast for sat, sun is fine 21deg. should be good conditions for footy

and those saying dogs will be worse off for coming off a heavier game are forgetting both teams have an 8 day recovery

[ding 5,126]

2 hours ago, hardtack said:

One other thing that MAY work in our favour is the fact that the umpires will have been told to be very aware of the numbers of free kicks being paid following the farcical one sided count in the Bulldogs v Crows game.

 

Very good point.

[Gator 16,921]

2 hours ago, Akum said:

1, They WILL nullify Gawn. Bevo tried it last year when they smashed us, and also in the NAB pre-season when we just beat their reserves. Their aim is to get the ball to land at Gawn's feet where they swarm on it, and their ruckman won't be trying to win taps, he'll just be trying to stop Gawn winning them, and Gawn will get no help from the umpires, Pannell or not. We have to at least match them in clearances when Gawn is nullified and can't give our mids an armchair ride.

2. And Bevo WILL play a loose man in defence, knowing that Roos is the one coach in the AFL who will let it cut us to shreds the whole game and not man them up.

1. Nope.  Gawn WILL provide first use.  He doesn't have over 40 more hitouts to advantage in the competition for nothing.  Think about that stat for one moment.  And Gawn is 2 levels higher as a ruckman than he was last year.

2. Yep, they often play a 7 man defence.

[H_T 2,941]

4 hours ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

I'm optomistic that we have a chance but they are a very high pressure team which stkilda proved we have not quite gotten to a point where we can deal with that kind of pressure. If we can get it thought their wall then we will be have a huge go because their last line of defence struggled very much once adelaide got it through but if we cant then we may be in for a tough afternoon.

The Dogs defence is missing a few (Murphy, Johannson, Suckling) and now Adams. Still, we need to keep winning it out of the middle as we've been doing. It was great to see Oliver back in there. He's as important as Viney, Vince, Jones, Tyson. Has an uncanny appetite to get first hands on the ball after the tap. 

41 minutes ago, ProDee said:

1. Nope.  Gawn WILL provide first use.  He doesn't have over 40 more hitouts to advantage in the competition for nothing.  Think about that stat for one moment.  And Gawn is 2 levels higher as a ruckman than he was last year.

2. Yep, they often play a 7 man defence.

I agree on Gawn. But what he will face is a 3rd man up from the Dogs. I'm sure our stoppage crew will do their homework. It will still be critical to our clearance work. 

[ArtificialWisdom 3,945]

11 minutes ago, H_T said:

The Dogs defence is missing a few (Murphy, Johannson, Suckling) and now Adams. Still, we need to keep winning it out of the middle as we've been doing. It was great to see Oliver back in there. He's as important as Viney, Vince, Jones, Tyson. Has an uncanny appetite to get first hands on the ball after the tap. 

I agree on Gawn. But what he will face is a 3rd man up from the Dogs. I'm sure our stoppage crew will do their homework. It will still be critical to our clearance work. 

Yeah i know its the missing men that means they struggle, we have to exploit it, winning out of the middle is our best bet to get scores, but that is no easy feat. The dogs dont have star ruckmen so they are very good at reading it off the opposition ruckman, i have no doubt on Gawn's ability to get mass hitouts but its his precision tap work needs to be on point for us to win. We talk about the guys at his feet but it doesnt really matter which ones of them play well, Gawn is the one that needs to play the blinder for us to win, as it will be whenever we play top teams. 

[BarnDee 287]

3 hours ago, Akum said:

We'll win IF ...

... IF we can match them or even beat them in clearances.

... IF we can stop their chains of uncontested possessions out of defence.

They WILL nullify Gawn. Bevo tried it last year when they smashed us, and also in the NAB pre-season when we just beat their reserves. Their aim is to get the ball to land at Gawn's feet where they swarm on it, and their ruckman won't be trying to win taps, he'll just be trying to stop Gawn winning them, and Gawn will get no help from the umpires, Pannell or not. We have to at least match them in clearances when Gawn is nullified and can't give our mids an armchair ride.

And Bevo WILL play a loose man in defence, knowing that Roos is the one coach in the AFL who will let it cut us to shreds the whole game and not man them up. The Dogs have good stats defensively because they rarely turn over the ball in their defence, let alone allow pressure to build by repeat entries - once they win the ball in defence, they're great at moving the ball a long way from their defensive zone by chains of uncontested possessions. When we've played well, we've been good at getting forward-line turnovers and repeat forward entries (why does that sound so wrong???), but if they have an extra man, it will be much harder (wrong too??). If they have a spare man in defence and we man them up (7-on-7), it congests our forward line and makes turnovers more likely than if it was 6-on-6. and makes it harder for them to initiate chains of possession from the half back line.

So, we'll win IF we just don't play into their hands. Otherwise, we'll get smashed.

we will win if we kick a higher score than them  guaranteed !

[mrtwister 650]

4 hours ago, M_9 said:

My understanding is that he umpired the Dogs (v Norf) the previous week. Doubt they'd schedule him 3 weeks in a row.

And Brisbane in Week 5

[Gorgoroth 12,369]

Must not let them have a spare. It's their weapon and our downfall. 

We must pay respect to Wallace and Co in the middle. Is instruct Gawn to hit the ball 10 meters away from stoppages quite often to negate their inside players grouping up. 

[rjay 24,128]

3 hours ago, Moneider96 said:

Umpires won't be as biased for the Bulldogs, given the scrutiny they've received after the crows game.

they should be particularly mindful of how the dogs players continue to drop the knees...or duck. Will give us a real good chance. Not to mention our midfield is amazing. 

Umpires can be a very strange mob and might get their backs up to double the doggies free kick count....

In other words don't write the umps into the win for us, we will win by playing the better footy or we won't.

[DEE fence 4,567]

6 hours ago, Lifelong Demon said:

Using the statistics gained from the premiership level attack and defense charts over the last three weeks...

59% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack and defense than their opposition.

22% of the time games are won by teams that are better at defense than their opposition but not attack.

15% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack than their opposition but not defense.

4% of the time games are won by teams who are worse at both attack and defense  (Saints v Demons ).

 

Leading into the game this week under these statistics, Bulldogs would win 22% of the time, Demons 15%.

If you compare only teams in similar spreads (one better at one stat than the other) Bulldogs would win 60%, Demons 40%.

 

Now, my Tipping Spreadsheet had Demons beating Suns by 1 point last week... This week it has Bulldogs beating Demons by 2 points. However, games that have been 4 points or under in my spreadsheet are at about 50% accuracy at the moment... still tweaking the algorithms!

 

Having said all that I am still tipping the Demons to win this one as I think they are in the right frame of mind, the ground is a different size and softness, things are starting to click and its time to beat a top 8 team!

 

What is the algorithm for the 'above the shoulders' bit, not being a smart ar$3, but i just feel that is quantitative method on a qualitative problem?  

[biggestred 4,410]

They rolled us by 100 last time out....

We wont win

[Deestroy All 14,262]

6 minutes ago, biggestred said:

They rolled us by 100 last time out....

We wont win

And we rolled them by 40 a few weeks earlier at the G. 

We might win. 

[Mazer Rackham 14,970]

We have to take it forward more than they do. We have to limit the time our leaky defence has to [censored] up and hand them scoring opportunities.

Put another way, scoreboard pressure.

Our mids can match their mids. Our forwards can match their forwards. But their defence is so much better than ours. Our only hope is to nullify that advantage.

[Ricky P 757]

Given Maxy's write-up in the Herald Sun and Harmsey winning the Rising Star - we are no chance on the weekend. Media St is poison for the Dees!

[Return to Glory 7,832]

6 hours ago, SaberFang said:

I really don't like threads like this... yes, I'm fairly confident about Sunday given these factors, but I don't think we should telegraph it. Just strikes me as bad luck if nothing else.

SaberFang, I would normally be exactly the same. I'm sometimes pessimism personified when it comes to the Dees. Having said that, last night I started reading 'The Meaning of Luck' by Steve Waugh. I was given it for Christmas and thought it would be your by-the-numbers sports reflection (which is not my bag). It's not.  One of the things that stood out for me was contained within the introduction and the focus on teams being habitually lucky. He is very much of the school of thought that this is controllable and is predominantly derived from attitude. It would appear the team has made a quantum leap in this regard. The second thing that's stood out (so far) is a comment he made in regards to being a part of a team expected to steamroll opposition. He found it easier to embrace this expectation rather than shy from it. I think it's instructional for a team that's been in the wilderness and perhaps has a degree of relevance for the correspondingly punch drunk supporters.

.

 

Edited May 10, 2016 by Return to Glory

[hemingway 7,608]

The Dogs will be hard to beat even with injuries. They have depth and competition for spots. Also their game is ideally suited for the MCG. Not confident about this one but it is just another step along the way for both clubs. This season and those to come. Hopefully exciting times for both clubs. The Demons and the Dogs in a grand final how good would that be. With the Demons triumphing in a close one.