Will 12 be enough

[davejemmolly 85]

Was just listening to Duck and Campbell Brown on AFL.com and they reckon that whilst a few weeks ago, it was accepted that you would make 13 wins to make the eight, with recent results, that 12 and a healthy percentage will get the job done.

Thoughts?

 

Edit - As an eternal optimist, I reckon we'll knock off cats, swans and gold coast, making this thread a moot point.

I raised it, as one of the worlds great football thinkers (carey), a football savant if you will, was discussing it with the grand-daddy of modern thought (brown), and as such, I thought i'd relay it here.

Also, I was bored of reading the 'go get gaff' thread, so I decided to start a new one!

Edited July 19, 2018 by davejemmolly

[SFebes 4,692]

Do the ladder predictor and see for yourself 

[What 18,810]

3 minutes ago, davejemmolly said:

Was just listening to Duck and Campbell Brown on AFL.com and they reckon that whilst a few weeks ago, it was accepted that you would make 13 wins to make the eight, with recent results, that 12 and a healthy percentage will get the job done.

 

Thoughts?

 

12, no way.  I see no plausible way that 12 will be enough .... even taking into account upsets.

13 and a great % will do it.    Or in the case of GWS, 12 and a half wins maybe might get then 8th spot .

[Demonland 65,655]

We'd need quite a few things going our way for 12 to be enough even with our healthy percentage. Don't forget that a few medium sized or god forbid large losses could see that percentage advantage evaporate.

We will have to make it the old fashioned way by actually winning games. Considering that most of our games are against Top 8 teams if we don't beat those teams then we do not deserve a spot. Being the best of the worst shouldn't give you a wildcard. Simple.

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,269]

I had us sneaking into 8th on 12-10 due to our great percentage.

I also had Hawthorn and North at 12-10 but missing. Adelaide and Essendon winning 11 each.

Hawthorn

Carlton W

Freo W

Ess L

Geel L

St K W

Syd L

 

NORTH MELB

Collingwood L

West Coast L

Bris W

WB W

Adel L

StK W

 

MELBOURNE

Geelong L

Adelaide W

GC   W

Syd  L

WCE  L

GWS  L

 

 

 

 

[SFebes 4,692]

13 will get you in. 12 and a draw may just be enough also. I think we're cooked and won't make it anyway.

[loges 6,114]

No

[hells bells 2,022]

I had teams on 13 wins missing out.  12 wins definitely not. 

[beelzebub 22,230]

Lol...so you want to fall back into the 8...then get your botty summarily spanked on the way out again ?

If you've only won 12...well you haven't beaten any other contender most likely.

If we haven't won 14...we haven't really done squat.

[poita 3,638]

No way 12 will be enough. 13 might not even be enough without a strong percentage.

[Ethan Tremblay 28,436]

12 will get you in by .5 of a % if Melbourne lose their must-win round 23 match. 

[Sir Why You Little 34,614]

Depends how many games Brisbane win. They can still cause a few upsets. 

I hope we get in with 14 wins, start owning games...

[Wiseblood 24,636]

12 wins may not be enough.  I think that other teams will get enough wins on the board to get to 13 and keep us out.

13 wins and our healthy percentage gets us in.  We would be the unluckiest side in AFL history to miss out if we get to 13 wins.

14 would be sensational and would put us in the frame for a Top 4 finish.

[The Chazz 4,077]

We would need results to go our way of we only win 12 (Gold Coast and one other).

We can lock in a spot if we win 13 in my view (Gold Coast plus 2 others).

I just hope that loss to the Saints isn't what cost us.

I'm still continually amazed at the people saying that we don't deserve to play finals if we can't beat sides higher than us.  I doubt Collingwood supporters would be saying the same thing, yet they haven't beaten anyone above them as yet.  f we win enough games to finish 8th, and that means we haven't beaten anyone above us, then doesn't that just say what we are - the 8th best team in the comp?  And if we're the 8th best team, doesn't that mean we deserve to play finals, given it's for the top 8 teams?

[DeleteUser 638]

I've a shockingly innovative idea I hope you will all share a favourable amount of zest with me for.

• Win games.
• Disregard falling into the 8.

All else is irrelevant.

[DeleteUser 638]

5 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

  I doubt Collingwood supporters would be saying the same thing, yet they haven't beaten anyone above them as yet.

Most Collingwood supporters are not mental giants, let's be honest.

If they won $55M in a Powerball jackpot they'd complain it wasn't $56M.

Logic and sense are not their core funky focus.

[sue 8,451]

9 minutes ago, timbo said:

I've a shockingly innovative idea I hope you will all share a favourable amount of zest with me for.

• Win games.
• Disregard falling into the 8.

All else is irrelevant.

Yeah, of course.  But these threads are for those who wish to discuss the outcome of likely realities rather than improbable dreams (ie win all matches and it's no problem making the finals).  And the predictions get clearer week by week.  Let's hope the predictions for the MFC don't get too clear too soon.

Edited July 19, 2018 by sue

[Little Goffy 12,664]

My first thought was just a simple 'nope', it doesn't seem credible at all. Certainly from our perspective, where winning only two of the final 6 rounds would feel like failure almost regardless of final ladder position.

But hmm, currently 4 teams on 9 (or 9 1/2) wins, two of those teams in the 8, two out of it.

Look at it this way - if Geelong win 3 games to finish on twelve and preserve their percentage, then the chasers North and Hawthorn would have to win 4 games out of 6 to climb over them. Mind you, only one of them would need to do it, obviously.

 

Oh it gets better. It's Catch-22 time!

Beat Geelong, then it is less likely we'll need the thirteenth win, but more likely we'll have it.

Lose to Geelong, then it becomes basically certain we'd need that 13th win, but much harder to get there.

Saturday night is just getting bigger and bigger.

I swear I just saw my MFCSS physically manifest as a dark shadow along the back of the couch.

 

[Smokey 4,138]

Demonland: (Rightly) Upset that we haven't played finals since 2006. 

Also Demonland: Well if we fall in with 12 wins it doesn't mean anything. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Demonland 65,655]

14 minutes ago, Smokey said:

Demonland: (Rightly) Upset that we haven't played finals since 2006. 

Also Demonland: Well if we fall in with 12 wins it doesn't mean anything. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Not sure if you are referring to just me or the site in general.

If just me I will reiterate my position. I have no problem with falling into the 8 with 12 wins not having beaten a Top 8. If we fail to make the 8 with 12 wins not having beaten a Top 8 side then we do not deserve to be in the finals.

[McQueen 17,864]

The narrative is that it's a game of small margins so anything's possible.

[Moonshadow 16,274]

Relax, we've got this.

[beelzebub 22,230]

14 wins >>>most likely 5th or 6th.

Do that ... you're in the game.

Anything else this year....nada gunna go very far. That's just the reality.

With pig out . Todd jnr out....others...who knows...

We are unlikely to trouble anyone of note. 

( I'm not a fan of KoolAid )

 

[John Crow Batty 8,266]

So we have a tough road home. I say bring it on. Last season we had a so called easy run, especially the last three rounds and blew it. We will see what kind of fight and character this lot will provide. 

[Demon Disciple 11,035]

In some ladder predictor instances, some teams winning 13 games may miss out on making the finals.

12 will definitely not be enough, in fact 13 and superior percentage may just be enough.