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Harley Reid


dazzledavey36

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22 minutes ago, Mach5 said:


Which is maybe why we’re trying to work out a deal with Hawthorn for pick 4. 

Would 4, 11 and 42 really be better than 6, 11, 42 and a F1? Especially if Curtin would be available at 6 anyway?

I suppose they could get 4 - pick another player like Watson - and still offer their future first if Curtin slipped, but not sure if that would tempt them at this stage

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7 minutes ago, bluey said:

You’ll find all deals have been done, and handshaked, the draft show is only held for the drama.

I read somewhere that all the list managers were meeting before Monday to have a mock draft. This adds to what you say that not deals are done on the night they are already in the can. makes sense when you think about it.

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14 minutes ago, Older demon said:

I read somewhere that all the list managers were meeting before Monday to have a mock draft. This adds to what you say that not deals are done on the night they are already in the can. makes sense when you think about it.

I heard that too. Has that happened in the past? Would clubs show their true hand then? Seems high risk, especially with people like Dodoro around. 

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21 hours ago, No. 31 said:

PS - reckon WC will do a deal for pick 1 on draft night.

They must consider this move 

of course they must be convinced on who would be taken in the first 5 or 6 picks to determine who to deal with. 
 

2 top tier players is far better insurance than one. If you are rebuilding a side.

if like us too four for 3 years it could be advantageous to get that flag in this window.   Will watch

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3 hours ago, Palace Dees said:

I heard that too. Has that happened in the past? Would clubs show their true hand then? Seems high risk, especially with people like Dodoro around. 

Then stop at Bombers pick!

Edited by Redleg
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11 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

He was the conservative choice for the Eagles but I can't see their strategy for getting out of the bottom four

Yeah it was a dumb, short term view. 
Had they done the trade with us:

They could have had Curtin, Thulstrop and one more firsts rounder next year. In effect doubling their high end talent. 

My gut feel is that they’ll do a Norf and hover round the spoon for another 2-3 years to get the first pick and additional compensation.

That is probably their list strategy. Problem is, Reid will probably be home sick and tired of finishing last for 2-3 years consecutively and request a trade to Victoria.

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1 hour ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Yeah it was a dumb, short term view. 
Had they done the trade with us:

They could have had Curtin, Thulstrop and one more firsts rounder next year. In effect doubling their high end talent. 

My gut feel is that they’ll do a Norf and hover round the spoon for another 2-3 years to get the first pick and additional compensation.

That is probably their list strategy. Problem is, Reid will probably be home sick and tired of finishing last for 2-3 years consecutively and request a trade to Victoria.

100% agree.

I don't doubt Reid's talent, and i would have loved to get him.

But as you say they could have secured probably three first rounders for him - including Curtain who they were apparently super keen on.

I reckon that would have been the play - particularly given that every season near the end of any contract will be dominated by the 'will reid go home' talk, which would be suffocating in a two team footy mad place like Perth. 

And as good as Reid might be, it's hard to build a premiership team around a mid. 

Judd is a good comparison. A once in a generation star who undoubtedly was a huge factor in their 2006 flag (some might argue the biggest factor given his immense talent and how he drove standards - training and on field ones that is) .

But Judd came into an Eagles team in 2002 that had players of the quality of Cox, the Matera brothers, Cousins, Banfield, Kerr, Glenn Jackovich, Wirrpanda and Michael Gardiner.

And it still took another 4 years to win a flag.

The current team Eagles team is incomparable in terms of talent.

Given how poor their list is (i reckon the worst in the AFL by a mile, particularly in terms of their demographic spread) building a premiership team will require multiple years of being near the foot of the table to get more high draft picks.

And they have very few players they could afford to trade out to secure some first round draft picks - and given Allen and Barass are both locked away no A graders who might want to leave they could leverage. 

How long does a player as good as Reid want to play in rubbish sides?

By way of comparison, the roos are in much better shape with their bevy of first round draft picks in the last three seasons.

 

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I'm in the minority but I think they made the right call. A player like that (presuming things pan out the way they should...no guarantees) can change a club & even if he ends up leaving, having that player in your possession can secure a bounty that in turn secures their draft hand for 2/3 years after he leaves (after having the benefit of him for the first 2/3/4/5 years, particularly if he hits the ground running). That single decision can reverberate across the list for 5-10 years.

I think people are seduced by quantity over quality, and we're schooled to think that diversifying that risk is smart. It can be, but it greatly diminishes the potential reward. 

Subjective, but I see very little to enthuse on Curtin. Very little. Tholstrup looks more exciting, but is quite speculative. Collard similiar. Whilst #1 usually doesnt live up the hype, the success rates on the first 4-6 picks are much higher than 8, 13 and 28. 

If you probability weight the chance of each draftee reaching their maximum output - lets say '100' is that number - in my mind the equation would look like:

Reid: 90% * 95 = 86

vs

(Curtin + Tholstrup + Collard) = (50% * 60) + (40% * 80) + (25% * 60) = 77

Whilst option 2 looks close on paper, my probability assessment for each player succeeding is in a vacuum when in reality they would be somewhat interdependent as teammates. There are clearly more outcomes to cover off - which swings both ways, but depending on your assessment of the players, the chances of any of the 3 being anywhere close to Reid are slim. The chance of more than 1 of them being that good would be close to none. 

All those inputs are obviously subjective so it depends on how you rate the players.

90% confidence that Harley can be a 95 player is a massive call clearly and you only need to be 10-15% less confident, or think his ceiling is 80/85 to tip the equation the other way. 

To my eye, they made the right call and I'd have had no issue if we sold the farm for Harley. 

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3 hours ago, fr_ap said:

I'm in the minority but I think they made the right call. A player like that (presuming things pan out the way they should...no guarantees) can change a club & even if he ends up leaving, having that player in your possession can secure a bounty that in turn secures their draft hand for 2/3 years after he leaves (after having the benefit of him for the first 2/3/4/5 years, particularly if he hits the ground running). That single decision can reverberate across the list for 5-10 years.

I think people are seduced by quantity over quality, and we're schooled to think that diversifying that risk is smart. It can be, but it greatly diminishes the potential reward. 

Subjective, but I see very little to enthuse on Curtin. Very little. Tholstrup looks more exciting, but is quite speculative. Collard similiar. Whilst #1 usually doesnt live up the hype, the success rates on the first 4-6 picks are much higher than 8, 13 and 28. 

If you probability weight the chance of each draftee reaching their maximum output - lets say '100' is that number - in my mind the equation would look like:

Reid: 90% * 95 = 86

vs

(Curtin + Tholstrup + Collard) = (50% * 60) + (40% * 80) + (25% * 60) = 77

Whilst option 2 looks close on paper, my probability assessment for each player succeeding is in a vacuum when in reality they would be somewhat interdependent as teammates. There are clearly more outcomes to cover off - which swings both ways, but depending on your assessment of the players, the chances of any of the 3 being anywhere close to Reid are slim. The chance of more than 1 of them being that good would be close to none. 

All those inputs are obviously subjective so it depends on how you rate the players.

90% confidence that Harley can be a 95 player is a massive call clearly and you only need to be 10-15% less confident, or think his ceiling is 80/85 to tip the equation the other way. 

To my eye, they made the right call and I'd have had no issue if we sold the farm for Harley. 

All good points.

One thing that I didn't factor in is if Reid is as good as expected but does want to leave at some point the Eagles will get a bunch of good draft picks and/or players in the trade period.

They did pretty well out of the Judd deal with Kennedy becoming a legend of the club.

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13 hours ago, binman said:

One thing that I didn't factor in is if Reid is as good as expected but does want to leave at some point the Eagles will get a bunch of good draft picks and/or players in the trade period.

Why... player trades do not reflect draft selection and form. He will attract a 5 x $1.6M offer and two picks around 8 if he wants to come home at the end of 3 years.

It is the way

Kennedy was a bit of luck for the Eagles. Lightning doesn't strike twice

Edited by Diamond_Jim
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