What’s Behind Our Form Slump

[drdrake 3,119]

It is the same reason why we played finals and didn't play finals in 2019/20, one player we need to fire isn't at the moment and the start of the year he was.  He makes us dangerous up forward and when full of confidence doesn't miss goals, when he plays well so do we are we are a different side.  I have notice over the past 6-8 weeks we seems to spend a lot of time complaining to the umpires.

To simplify our problems, we need T McDonald firing, he doesn't fire we struggle.  Backline is strong, mids can't kick but get enough of the ball forward we need Tom working with Ben kicking his 2-3 goals a week

[Lord Nev 13,512]

20 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

Sorry, what?

By its very literal definition the game would have been very different if some of those points were goals. So much so the result could have been different.

?

If one of those points becomes a goal, or vice versa, the rest of the game changes so there wouldn't be the same scoring scenario for the rest of the game.

ie - If the first point becomes a goal then the ball goes back into the middle and a different play ensues from the one that happens from the point kick in.

There's close to zero chance the game then ends up with the same scoring shots.

Follow me now?

[praha 11,118]

18 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Rd15 Dees 9.14 to Ess 8.9 (W)

Rd 16 Dees7.13 to GWS 9.10 (L)

Rd 17 Dees 12.14 to 8.7 (W)

Rd 18 Dees 11.13 to Haw 12.7 (D)

Rd 19 Dees 9.11 to WB 13.7 (L)

It's massive hyperbole. When you start the season 10-0 then obviously if you're 13-1-4 you have only won 3 of 7. lol if you look at it another way, we have won 13 of 18 and only lost 4. It's not been a great month and a bit dating back to the Pies game but our wins against Bombers and Port were really good. We should have pumped Hawthorn and GWS is unpredictable. If we don't smack GC this week which we will then I'll start thinking the wheels have fallen off.

[old dee 23,487]

7 minutes ago, praha said:

It's massive hyperbole. When you start the season 10-0 then obviously if you're 13-1-4 you have only won 3 of 7. lol if you look at it another way, we have won 13 of 18 and only lost 4. It's not been a great month and a bit dating back to the Pies game but our wins against Bombers and Port were really good. We should have pumped Hawthorn and GWS is unpredictable. If we don't smack GC this week which we will then I'll start thinking the wheels have fallen off.

" Which we will" that's confidence Praha.  I think the Sun's have as good a team as Hawthorn and we could not beat them.  If we don't win you can put down your glasses for 2021. 

[The heart beats true 17,774]

38 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

If one of those points becomes a goal, or vice versa, the rest of the game changes so there wouldn't be the same scoring scenario for the rest of the game.

ie - If the first point becomes a goal then the ball goes back into the middle and a different play ensues from the one that happens from the point kick in.

There's close to zero chance the game then ends up with the same scoring shots.

Follow me now?

Yeah, I was just teasing. I get it. ?

I do think if we want to open up the ‘multi-verse’ theory of football we can’t stand behind stats to prove anything. The first bounce by the umpire opens up a million possibilities that are just multiplied out by millions with each passing second of play.

So instead we have to accept the failed logic of ‘destiny’ - that what happened would have happened regardless,  and in that case it doesn’t matter what universe I’m living in, I still just wish Ben Brown had kicked his [censored] goals.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

Just now, The heart beats true said:

Yeah, I was just teasing. I get it. ?

I do think if we want to open up the ‘multi-verse’ theory of football we can’t stand behind stats to prove anything. The first bounce by the umpire opens up a million possibilities that are just multiplied out by millions with each passing second of play.

So instead we have to accept the failed logic of ‘destiny’ - that what happened would have happened regardless,  and in that case it doesn’t matter what universe I’m living in, I still just wish Ben Brown had kicked his [censored] goals.

Haha yeah probably getting into real 'if you went back in time and met yourself' territory hey?

[Dee*ceiving 1,630]

19 hours ago, John Crow Batty said:

That’s what I said straight after the Bulldogs game. We got murdered in defensive 50 stoppages and above all other excuses that’s why we lost the game. 

 

Pure speculation, but are we too confident at the stoppage?

Do we treat a D50 stoppage the same as a stoppage anywhere else on the ground in that we back ourselves to win the ball and be positioned to move it forward with attacking intent under the comfort that if we don't win it our defensive structure will win it back? 

Maybe to simplistic but to my eyes we don't do enough to cover the dangerous players at D50 stoppages and you'd think the strategy would be different for various parts of the ground

[titan_uranus 24,584]

3 hours ago, old dee said:

" Which we will" that's confidence Praha.  I think the Sun's have as good a team as Hawthorn and we could not beat them.  If we don't win you can put down your glasses for 2021. 

Whilst you're welcome to question whether we'll beat GC, the argument that we drew with Hawthorn therefore we won't beat GC is one of the worst arguments you can roll out, seriously.

We beat Port 2.5 weeks ago, and GC is clearly worse than Port, so shouldn't that mean a comfortable win?

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,705]

How about this for an answer? We get out-selected, out-coached and out-thought virtually every single game. The comp has well and truly sorted Goodwin out. 

[old dee 23,487]

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Whilst you're welcome to question whether we'll beat GC, the argument that we drew with Hawthorn therefore we won't beat GC is one of the worst arguments you can roll out, seriously.

We beat Port 2.5 weeks ago, and GC is clearly worse than Port, so shouldn't that mean a comfortable win?

I did say we won't beat them. Where is that? 

[Little Goffy 13,984]

The looseness at defensive 50 stoppages is a clear problem, but allow me a wall-of-text post to elaborate on my personal alarm bell.

If you don't want to go through the whole thing the short version our kicking has hit the fan (and the fan is not a teammate). Petracca, Oliver, Gawn, Langdon, Neal-Bullen, Brayshaw, Jordon and Jackson have all had MAJOR drops in their kicking efficiency.

 

Petracca is the key example. Crucial going into attack and a barometer for the team. No prizes for guessing which of the following games we won:

Round 19 vs Dogs: 18 kicks at 22% efficiency

Round 18 vs Hawthorn: 10 kicks at 20% efficiency

Round 17 vs  Port: 22 kicks at 72% efficiency

Round 16 vs GWS: 18 kicks at 44% efficiency.

Clayton Oliver also has a very poor kicking game about one in four times he plays.  When both Oliver and Petracca have off kicking days we're bound to be in trouble - as very noticably happened in both the Bulldogs in Round 19 (37%) and the Round 16 GWS (40%) games.

Max Gawn, who incidentally is now the most frequently 'kicking' ruckman in the history of the game, was going okay at about 60% efficiency overall up to round 12, but since then his best has been 54% and he's had three games in the 30s.

Ed Langdon's kicking also dropped below 50% efficiency for the Collingwood, Hawthorn and Bulldogs games, compared to his usual 65-75%.

Alex Neal-Bullen only averages 55% kicking efficiency this season anyway, but that is built on some real shockers; again, didn't crack 40% in the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Adelaide games.

Angus Brayshaw has a normalish midfielder average of just over 60% for the season but in the last two rounds, again, 42% and 43%.

James Jordon is one of our more reliable midfield kicks except for the occasional shocking day out but here it is again, the last couple of weeks - 45% vs Hawthorn and then against the Dogs just 3 kicks total, with zero considered 'efficient'.

Luke Jackson... well, he's just stopped kicking it at all. His five total kicks for the last three games combined is less than his average per game prior to that.

[jnrmac 19,890]

10 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

Was just being a bit cheeky, not having a crack legend. Always love your work.

 

get a room...

[binman 41,946]

Symptom not cause goffy.

Everyone of those players have poor technique.

Fatigue exacerbates poor technique.

High training loads cause fatigue.

[Engorged Onion 10,124]

1 hour ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

How about this for an answer? We get out-selected, out-coached and out-thought virtually every single game. The comp has well and truly sorted Goodwin out. 

That's exactly the sentiment I attach to the coach of a  13-4-1 team!

[Queanbeyan Demon 6,705]

1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

That's exactly the sentiment I attach to the coach of a  13-4-1 team!

It's the sentiment I attach to a side that has been out-performed by the bottom side in the competition for the last six weeks. 

[Engorged Onion 10,124]

9 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

It's the sentiment I attach to a side that has been out-performed by the bottom side in the competition for the last six weeks. 

Indeed you do.

Go Dees.

[Demons1858 1,715]

Our goal kicking accuracy is the biggest factor and slightly less intensity and intent

[Watson11 2,211]

Surely the critical stat is we have gone from 1st in score from turnover to 12th. That’s a 16 point drop off, and if that hadn’t happened we would be undefeated.  And scoring from turnover usually occurs from forward or midfield turnovers and our drop off in pressure has seen that dry up. And our young players affect that pressure just as much as the leaders.

[titan_uranus 24,584]

13 hours ago, old dee said:

I did say we won't beat them. Where is that? 

What's the point of posting that you think GC is as good as Hawthorn and we couldn't beat Hawthorn, then?

As I said, the same argument applies the other way around (and of course, with a 12-1-4 record, it applies significantly more against you than it does in your favour).

The comparison you're drawing is an incredibly bad one to draw in support of an argument that you think we will, or might, not win this weekend.

[Docs Demons 1,748]

I reckon our issue is similar to the past in that our bottom 6 or so players are now not putting in as much as earlier in year. When we were winning well all players were contributing including our so called bottom 6. We need a even contribution from all to be a finals chance

[Lord Nev 13,512]

On 7/27/2021 at 10:00 AM, binman said:

We dont get extra point from a specific kick.

But WE DO get extra shots at goal in total (and the opposition less), so the effect is the same.

 

Interestingly, Goody mentioned today that the quality of where we're getting our shots from isn't what it should be.

 

[John Crow Batty 8,769]

The Age reckons it’s Nathan Buckley who’s triggered our current malaise.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/buckley-has-temporarily-departed-the-afl-scene-but-for-demons-he-isn-t-forgotten-20210728-p58djd.html

Edited July 28, 2021 by John Crow Batty

[58er 5,928]

On 7/27/2021 at 8:46 AM, old dee said:

Fatigue, we have been trying red hot since March and the biscuit supply is running low. That and again a crap reserves season where players have to be chosen without much form if you replace a senior player. E.G. if you rest Jackson who do you pick from a reserves squad that has not played for three weeks. While we all enjoyed the long no loss stretch it is biting us now. 

 If there isn't any changes! Surely Sam W should be given a go to be second Ruck and forward just to change things snd also help Jacko get some form back either on the track or once VFL games resume.

At the same time just a run on the ball might get Salem back to his best and a change for ANB to refresh him. 

Is there any point in considering Daw or Declase?

Jonesy and Melky must be given a chance and should be fresh to boot.

Defence  wise we should have a small defender either Lockhart or Bowey to get the ground ball crumbs that are coming in to test our defence.

Goody ( and the other Selectors) must react to our drop in form especially disposal and kicking skills. It must be addressed not just wiped away as is our ridiculous forward  pocket and boundary obsession for our forward line.

Maybe  swap Tmac and Petty to make the opposition think more and not just the same old same old!

We only need a 10/15% up swing and we can still give this flag a shake as we have no been totally wiped off in any game and been in the game with 10 mins to go in all games! 

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

My view is this:

Our scoring is a concern. Still 4-6 weeks to make the necessary enhancements/adjustments. Its difficult to tell from the TV but our forwards seem to get up very high and are getting too many ‘cheapies’ in the back half or high wing. The opposition are allowing this and sitting behind us (wicket keeping) and catching our forwards on the way through. Earlier they were coming with us and we were getting out the back more regularly or at least finding more marks I/50.

Opposition teams are defending us like we defend our own opposition.

Solution: Time to hold a few forwards back and get some quick direct pill to them.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

10 minutes ago, Grand New Flag said:

My view is this:

Our scoring is a concern. Still 4-6 weeks to make the necessary enhancements/adjustments. Its difficult to tell from the TV but our forwards seem to get up very high and are getting too many ‘cheapies’ in the back half or high wing. The opposition are allowing this and sitting behind us (wicket keeping) and catching our forwards on the way through. Earlier they were coming with us and we were getting out the back more regularly or at least finding more marks I/50.

Opposition teams are defending us like we defend our own opposition.

Solution: Time to hold a few forwards back and get some quick direct pill to them.

I think it's probably just the TV thing. Agree they're coming up high more, but not sure they're getting 'cheapies' up the ground.