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Watson11

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Everything posted by Watson11

  1. Special mention to Jack Viney in the GF. Big 2nd half. He was huge in the centre square and started most of those clearances that led to the quick goals at the end of the 3rd with either first touches or just bulldozing to make space. Key part of the turnaround.
  2. 16 premiership players today are 25 or under. Salem is 26. Viney 27. Gawn at 29 will play another 5 years now we have LJ. It’s going to be an exciting time to be a dees supporter over the next 4-5 years.
  3. Happy for all the focus to be on stopping Max and Lever/May, and Naughton. But no side with a poorly ranked defence (outside top 5) has won the flag for at least 13 years (probably longer). The dogs are ranked #18 in defensive one on one contests lost (31% lost, and 36% lost in the second half of the year). We win by making sure our forwards can get space and a lot of one on ones. BB, TMac, LJ/Max, Fritta are a big chance to have big games, and Kozzie/Spargs when it hits the ground. 27 degree day and no wind suits us perfectly.
  4. You should have stayed asleep. You missed Max kicking a goal after the siren to win the game.
  5. Meaningless stats! Maybe a more useful one I found from 2019, is all the previous 10 premiers ranked in top 5 of each of the stats below. I suspect it continued with Richmond in 2019 and 2020. I can't find 2021 F50 ground ball gets or points scored from forward half, but I am sure we would easily be top 5 for both, and probably #1 or #2. Score differential from turnover Demons #2 Dogs #1 (by 0.3 of a point, probably inflated with a few of the dogs mauling's of other teams early in the year) Opp scores per inside 50 Demons #1 (best ever) Dogs #11 <<<<<<-------- Post clearance contested possession Demons #1 Dogs #4 Forward 50 groundballs Points scored from forward half (turnovers + stoppages) The Dogs are ranked #18 (last) in defensive one on ones lost (at 31%). Rounds 12-23 they were so bad that #18 was a no contest (36% lost). That is a huge stat for us to exploit. The weather in Tasmania, Brisbane without Hipwood, McStay and Daniher (even though he was on the ground), and Port just not turning up have meant no-one in the media is talking about their biggest weakness.
  6. I agree. Such a non factor. The ironic thing is the dogs won the 1954 GF after 1 game in 28 days. And smashed it as well. When the top 4 and 5 were a thing it was the norm to win it after 1 game in 28 days. In 1962 Essendon won after 1 game in 35 days.
  7. If Melksham, Hunt, and Chandler go down in similar fashion in the next couple of training sessions then I would say you’re onto something.
  8. My Friday night football was rewatching R19. We would win that 8/10 times. Inside 50s were 55-51 to them. Probably 10-15 of theirs were directly from free kicks in the midfield. We had 24 scoring shots to 21. Tracc and BB in the first half had shockers missing everything. They got 2 goals from soft frees, and we gave up some soft goals from stoppages. We won contested ball by 23. Probably 40 if free kicks removed. BB and TMac looked dangerous against their short defence. On a dry evening I’ll back one of them or LJ/Max to get off the leash. Great if they all get off the leash. Smith went head to head with Tracc for a lot of the game. If that happens in the GF then I like that matchup for us. Tracc could easily win the Norm Smith. Our zone defence and Viney/Harmes at stoppages will cover Smith better than their defence. It looked like our pressure was a bit down, like it was for all of R13-R19. Especially noticeable that Daniel had a free run. Our pressure is back. If both teams bring the same game plan and effort on a dry night, I reckon we win by 20-30 points. The dogs have shown they can’t handle pressure around the ball (Richmond, us, Hawks), so if we bring real heat, I can see a no contest. Ports abysmal effort is masking a few issues for the dogs.
  9. I hope that happens with Schache. There should be more focus on how the dogs will stop our forward line. Watched round 19 again, and BB and TMac worried the dogs defence on a wet day. We had 25 scoring attempts for 9 goals. We would win that game 8 out of 10 times and on a dry day watch out. Schache may be needed in defence.
  10. His defensive efforts were disappointing this year. It was either poor aerobic fitness due to his injury and time off his legs or it was his attitude. I suspect it started out as the former, and the club were hoping he could build game fitness by playing, and it ended up as the latter as there was no excuse for the insipid Collingwood performance. His upside will only be known if he has an uninterrupted preseason.
  11. I agree. He has good skills but is a front runner usually found out in finals. I found some footage from R11 which is pretty typical. Leading up to the photo, Smith started right next to Tracc on the centre square when Oliver kicked long to a contest. Tracc got to the contest and kicked the goal. Look at Smith. Smith was more interested in a meaningless stat than defending. Even if Smith got it, our setup behind the ball would have held it up.
  12. Port were just abysmal. Ken Hinkley decided Libba didn't need a tag and changed his mind when it got to 5 goals to zip. The contested possession differential in Q1 was the highest ever recorded for a qtr by champion data. How stupid was Hinkley to not try and combat that from the start. Good sides can reset. But Port panicked, and did the bees to the honeypot (ala MFC 2018), and left Treloar and Smith standing by themselves outside stoppages the rest of the night. I re-watched the first half of our round 11 game v dogs and think Bailey Smith will be advantage us. In R11, his lack of defence gifted us 3 first qtr goals, just because he was chasing an easy kick in our forward half rather than accounting for his direct opponent (Tracc - goal, Jordon - goal, and Oliver - assist). When Smith ran forward, someone from our zone picked him up (Hunt, Lever, Hibbard, or Jordon in midfield) and ensured he did not get off the leash. Right now, I can see Smiths inflated head from Melbourne, and I'm sure he is already wondering where he will hang the norm smith. I'm looking forward to our forward half stoppages when Smith is standing by himself hoping for an easy stat while leaving Tracc, Sparrow, or Oliver on their own.
  13. Not a very exact science, but comparing the dogs and demons clearances minus frees for of 4 main mids. Dogs Ave 39.5 clearances, Ave FF 6.3 Net 33.2 Demons Ave 36.7 clearances Ave FF 3.6 Net 33.1 So take the umpires out of the equation and we are pretty even in other clearances. Also our last game against them is similar Dogs Clearances 47 FF 6 Net 41 Demons Clearances 44 FF 1 Net 43
  14. That might happen in the GF but Schache played defence on Luke Jackson last time, even following him into the ruck. One area we have a big advantage is our forward mix, with BB, TMac, Jackson/Gawn, Fritta going to stretch their defence if it’s dry. I have a feeling TMac is going to have a big GF.
  15. Just because they were sh!++!ng themselves before the game doesn’t mean they had a virus.
  16. It looked like Salem picked him up. Salem was pretty much running around as he pleased (29 possessions) and Bowie would zone off onto Rohan when needed. It was an unbelievably good defence last night.
  17. Fritta, BB, LJ, Kozzie, TMac, Spargo, Petracca, ANB, Max, Langdon, and lately Clarry. Wouldn’t be surprised if Brayshaw, Salem or Rivers pop up for a goal. Hope that answers it for them!
  18. Who knows what went on in 2019 and 20, but full credit also to the board and pert. I remember being at the presidents lunch for the QB game in 2018 and feeling pretty pumped with our 8-3 record and hot streak. A board member was at the bar and I had a quick chat and mentioned he must think we were a chance for a flag. His response was interesting, as he pretty much said that they would love to pinch an early flag aka Hawks 2008, but like those Hawks they were building to win flags when their core group were 25-29 between 2021 and 2025. I think that explains why the board gave Goodwin an extension to 2022 with performance milestones in 2021. I also think for all the good things Jackson did, he didn’t ensure Goodwin had the best support team and Pert has got that right.
  19. Cats have had some shocking last quarters. Not just R23, but earlier in the season Brisbane and Hawks came from a long way back and both should have won. Sydney came from behind and won. In R4 against us they were in the game at 3Q time but we did it easy. GWS last week came from a long way back and got within 2 kicks, but after a shocking turnover/goal gws gave up. Their best fourth quarter was against port away where they took a small lead into the 4Q. But at the time they rolled the dice and did the hardest front-running I have seen all season. They had defenders rolling the dice and running into forward 50 for 50-50 stoppages on the wing. That can come off but usually doesn’t against good teams. That said, I can only see them in this game if they roll the dice on offence and it works so still a bit worried. But at the same time I would not be surprised if we hammer them.
  20. That’s fair. But we seem to have got it right recently. In rounds 1-10 we dominated in lots of fourth qtrs and only lost 1 by 1 point, and another by 3 points. Rounds 11-21 we were 4w6l in fourth qtrs but none were blow outs. In the last 3 weeks we have dominated all of the fourth quarters. I’m thinking Burgo has got it 100% right after having the luxury of an 11-1 start. We went 2-3-1 through the middle part of the season but have now won 5 straight. It just feels that we are primed fitness wise and in that slump in the middle Burgo was preparing us for now.
  21. This week's taking forever so to pass time I dug a bit into Geelong's non GMBH/Simonds record under Scott since 2011 and their finals record (below in brackets) in the same year. They really have probably been a 5th to 10th team most years away from GMBH stadium, so their finals record is not that surprising. Ironically this year and 2016 are the only years they have performed at top 4 level away from home (and barely top 4 level). 2011 13-2 (3-0) 2012 8-7 (0-1) 2013 11-5 (1-2) 2014 10-5 (0-2) 2015 6-6-1 (DNQ) 2016 10-4 (1-1) 2017 8-6-1 (1-2) 2018 5-9 (0-1) 2019 9-7 (1-2) 2020 12-6 (2-2) 2021 9-4 (1-1) 2016 they won a QF (by 2 points), but they got spanked in the prelim by Sydney who finished top (11 goals to 2 at half time). Let's do the same this week.
  22. Yes. Hibbard picked up Gulden and Hayward when he rotated down there.
  23. Exactly. I have far more admiration for Sydney who have played in 8 or 9 prelims over 20 years.
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