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Everything posted by Watson11

  1. It is just a proxy. I think it equates more closely to total power output than anything else. High speed is >18km/hr. Burgo confirmed that last year against GC we were off the charts for total output (20% higher than any other game) and this data supports that. Sorry but I didn’t grab opponents numbers. It’s too time consuming, but you are probably right. Wet conditions will result in less running for both teams.
  2. The AFL puts the gps data out on their website under the Tracker for each game.
  3. I posted the GPS numbers on another thread. They are posted here for your convenience. The graph has high speed distance in km per game., We did not drop off at all in 2021 (in fact improved slightly). But this year was not good.
  4. I accept and most accept we were really poor. Goody wouldn’t say why anyway so not sure his statement means anything. The facts are our running dropped by around 10% on average per game after round 10. I haven’t broken it down by qtrs but I bet it was all in second halves. If so, we were down by around 20% in second halves of games after round 11, compared to round 1-10 and 2021, which is a huge drop off. Who knows why. Maybe players with crook knees/ankles/feet just don’t run as well. Maybe they couldn’t train and lost fitness. Maybe it’s overtraining or something else. But the reality is after round 11 we were not even top 8 standard in our results and we were probably bottom 4 in running.
  5. The contrast between Geelong and us this year is pretty stark. Scott was clearly on the same page as his head of fitness and medical staff (very experienced head doctor) when they pulled Max Holmes before the gf, but more impressive and a bigger contrast to us was sending Danger for a long rehab after round 10 (they were 6-4). On 25 May the comments were “Geelong coach Chris Scott said the decision may cost Geelong in the short term, but he’d reached the point where he wanted Dangerfield at his best, not merely struggling through games due to injury. "When I reflect over the last couple of years, we just haven't had him firing towards the end of the season," Scott said. If only Goody had applied that to the 9 players on our list that struggled through games due to injury from as early as round 1.
  6. Key graph is reposted here showing how our running fell away this year >10% less in the second half of the year.
  7. Enjoyed the podcast when finally getting a chance to listen this morning. @binman wondered what our record against top 6 teams away from the G was. It's 13W-13L, but you should fact check Also, at the G over the same period Hawthorn are 10W-1D-11L and Collingwood are surprisingly not much better than us at 8W-1D-18L. I didn't bother to check Richmond as we know it would be ridiculously good.
  8. The club would have all the data and graphs plus more, down to the individual players, and they would know exactly who was dropping off in terms of running as soon as it happened. Why those players kept being played is more complex, and probably should be a discussion for the Culture thread, but I don't think the blame should be on the FD at all. Burgo had a lot of FD managers from AFL clubs, soccer clubs, NBA teams etc on his podcasts, and discussion is often about who makes decisions on players with injuries, and it is pretty universal that it is the Head Coach. The FD/medical staff's role is to provide the information, data, and risks to the coaches. I can only assume MFC is the same.
  9. @Lucifers Hero I added trend lines for both seasons to make what you were saying obvious. @binman Burgo's comment that against Gold Coast last year the physical output of the group was off the scales is pretty easy to see. You have to feel sorry for Gold Coast that day. They had 46.4km of high speed running and 314 sprint efforts, which were off the charts compared to every other opponent we played but still lost by 100 points (the next best running effort was 40.7km).
  10. I've been meaning to do this for a while. AFL.com has GPS data on teams, including total distance covered, high speed distance, and number of sprints. High speed distance is probably the best indicator of fitness. I have plotted them all for 2021 and 2022. I can't see any strong trends to support loading as a factor in our poorer performances mid year, either last year or this year, especially not with high speed running. Last year we averaged 39.4km a game of high speed running and maintained that average throughout the whole season. In the loading period of rounds 11-18 our output did not really change at all. This year we averaged 37.8km a game, but averaged 40.2km per game in rounds 1-10, fell off a cliff for 3 weeks (maybe loading), bounced back and then declined pretty much every week all he way through to last Friday night.
  11. Still can’t believe brisbane beat us. Would love some discussion on why the G is such a bogey ground for us against good teams. Since Goody has been coach we have had 4 wins and 21 losses against sides that finished top 6 that year. Is it psychological, or is our game plan fundamentally flawed and too easy to pick apart by the best teams on the wider ground? PS Please don’t roll out the myth that we play Optus well and it’s the same width because it isn’t (it’s 130m wide versus the G’s 141m). https://optusstadium.com.au/the-stadium/fact-sheets/afl-fact-sheet
  12. Interesting that the assumption is that we won last year based on our strong culture! Where’s the evidence? One off success has nothing to do with culture. Collingwood in 2010 are a classic example. Youngest premiership team ever, and their supporters would have expected more success but it all went to [censored] (Our CEO hopefully learnt something from that). We now know they had a divided playing group and [censored] culture. West Coast 2006. Crows 2017 almost got there. All despite what we now know was a crap culture. Culture is what maintains success for a long period. Sydney have a strong culture. Hawthorn as well. Carlton and Essendon used to but their cheating destroyed it overnight. Hopefully they are a few decades from recovering. The jury is still well and truly out as to whether we are building a strong culture.
  13. Interestingly, they are ranked #18 for kicking efficiency this year.
  14. Our record at the G is just diabolical. Against top 6 teams this year it’s 1 win 6 losses. Even last year it was 1 win 2 losses so thanks to COVID we got our flag. Maybe Goodys famed system just doesn’t work at the G against good teams.
  15. Maybe I’ve misunderstood what Burgo has gone on the record to say. I really enjoy his podcasts, and have listened to all of them, but I got the sense his resilience philosophy was about soft tissue injuries and minimising them. One interesting podcast was about Arsenal, where they reviewed several years of data (all those wellness surveys, gps data etc), and found no benefit in soft tissue injury rates for those that were managed versus those that trained through soreness etc. At the same time, the research was coming out that showed soft tissue injuries are more likely with variation in training loads (acute-chronic ratio), and that drove his philosophy to not let players have sessions off if sore or tired. If he was referring to knee injuries, ankle injuries, lisfranc injuries etc then I misunderstood his podcasts and that would seem to be stepping way outside his area of expertise. He seems to have a lot of respect for doctors, and I doubt he would be telling a doctor that TMac needs to train through that foot pain. If my interpretation is close, Selwyn has done a great job as we have had almost zero soft tissue injuries. But management of knees, feet etc is more questionable. Is Brukner still consulting now that Burgo has gone, as our head doctor is very recently graduated.
  16. What about the doctor. They would surely have the biggest say on impact related injuries.
  17. We both want Gus back on the wing but maybe we view how he played the role a bit differently (I view it as a wing with a defensive focus). I think fox footy have the numbers wrong. You can look up every players heat maps here https://dfsaustralia.com/afl-player-heat-maps/ Last year he spent more time in defensive half in 19/25 games. In games against top 8 it was 10/12, with 22% of game time in D50 and 60% in the defensive half. Some games he probably spent more time in D50 than Salem. For example our round 12 against Brisbane (38%) and prelim final (39%). He has a great feel for the game and knows when to push back and help out and I think we agree it’s hurting our defending now that we don’t have that.
  18. I agree it would be good for him to go back to the wing. But in 2021 he kicked only 3 goals, had 35 defensive 50 rebounds, and 123 intercepts which suggests he spent some time in defensive 50.
  19. Not sure I agree. Richmond invented it. They won in 2017 with it and took it to extremes in 2018 where they were happy to concede clearances (ranked 17) as long as they were pressured (they backed their intercept and rebound like Collingwood do). It’s risky as was shown up in the 2018 prelim when a 7ft beanpole fluked 5 marks and it was game over. It’s similarly risky now. Worked well on Friday night but I don’t think it works as well in dry warmer conditions. Think about our scores from centre clearance in the prelim and GF last year. I’ll back us to beat Sydney or Collingwood comfortably in the GF if they get there :-).
  20. It’s been bugging me since round 7 that we suddenly became a lot easier to score against. We have had all sorts of semi logical reasons thrown up such as loading, lack of forward pressure, injuries etc etc. All have some merit. But last Friday none of these were a factor, May was unbelievable with 16 intercepts, and yet we still conceded scores from 42% of Sydney inside 50s versus our average of 31% in finals last year. Any ideas why? Are we missing Brayshaw as that defensive winger getting back into D50? Max has had 33% fewer spoils this year than last. Do we need him back doing 80% ruck work in the defensive role to help out in D50 and rest him on the bench instead of up forward? Do we need Bowey in for defensive ground balls that cost us against Sydney? Look forward to the podcast.
  21. I’m not sure. Freo have the youngest team in the finals and could completely flop, but Switkowski, Schulz, Frederick, and Walters were like a pack of feral dogs last night, and if they pressure like last night Collingwoods one wood rebounding from defence might not work so well. We have also seen first hand what Freo can do at the G when they move the ball quickly like last night. I think they are a decent chance if they aren’t overawed.
  22. I agree. Longmire is very astute. Parker had a ridiculous 15 ground ball gets, and you can bet most were after we lost possession trying to exit clearances.
  23. Sorry. I’ve quoted ground balls which are different. I don’t think we will find post clearance contested possessions without champion data access. But looking at CP differential and ground ball differential is probably close. We were +25 CP and +7 GB so swans were probably well up in post contest CP (+18?). Geelong were +21 CP and +23 GB so probably pretty even in post contest CP.
  24. I believe they are: Geelong 116 Melb 108 Syd 101 Pies 93 Sydney seemed to get a lot of post clearance CPs in their forward 50. Papley had 5. Kozzie had 0.
  25. That’s true, but we played it pretty well last year. Maybe we have sacrificed a bit of our defensive edge for various reasons. Brayshaw on the wing was very defensive last year and ran extra hard to get beck inside d50 when we turned it over. He also reads the game much better than Jordan/Harmes who are there now. Max is almost like an extra defender when in the ruck and maybe we lose the extra protection with LJ playing so much time on ball. Max’s spoil numbers are down quite a lot (beside his 2 injury ravaged years 2015 was his next lowest output for spoils). Sydney played a lot better against us at the G last year than this year but lost. Purely because we were much harder to score against last year.
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