Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Binmans PA 26,033]

36 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

6 and say 16 for Kelly... where do we sign !!

That's the guy I'd be going for. I'd take Shiel of course, but not for a mill. Whereas, Kelly might be worth that. 

[Demon Disciple 10,928]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Well, this post could have been worse...

Damn auto spelling on an iPad. Obviously I meant Gorilla back-man (auto spell nearly tripped me up again). I should proof read a little better when I post ?

[JTR 2,627]

3 hours ago, Deeman said:

I’m hoping to the Lord above that the Dockers have amnesia over the Colin Sylvia trade.

Hopefully they don't employ the services of the Richmond doctor either...

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,795]

If we dont get more than 2 first round picks, it is going to be seen as [censored] weak by the MFC, this for a ready made Key Forward.

What do you think Collingwood, Essendon or Richmond would be asking for?

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by Win4theAges

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

1 hour ago, Ugottobekidding said:

 

Probably not necessary given what he's gone through, mate. 

Even if this trade eventuates, I imagine most on here will always hold a soft spot for him. 

Edited September 29, 2018 by george_on_the_outer

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

A closer statistical look at Jesse Hogan’s 2018 is revealing.

20 games, 47 goals @ 2.4 goals per game.

Okay, pretty good but let’s break that down into performances against the top 10 clubs on the ladder versus his returns against the bottom 8 clubs.

Hogan v Top 10 Clubs:

8 games, 9 goals @ 1.1 per game 

Hogan v Bottom 8 Clubs:

12 games, 38 goals @ 3.2 per game

Conclusion:

Pretty self explanatory. A talented young key forward who currently beats up on lesser defenders but goes consistently missing in the bigger games against quality opposition. 

“Generational player” ... No. 

Potential to develop into top five in comp quality AFL key forward ... Yes.

Pick 9 & 10 ... About right. But we should hold out for 5 & 10 and see if Freo blink.

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[Macca 16,173]

Market forces value the picks so even if the picks are over-valued as I believe they are,  arguing for more is a futile exercise as market forces rules.  Real estate works in a similar way.

In a way,  it ends up being fair-for-all as there is a consistent view that ends up reflecting the market forces.   An example of that is that if Lever & Hogan end up both being very good players for their entire career's then we've neither won nor lost when equating both deals together.

But from my point of view I want more for Hogan regardless of what the market forces dictated.  With Lever,  I was happy with that as I believed we paid unders (based on my view that picks are overvalued)  I suppose one deal evens out the other?

I reckon the landscape will change in 5 - 10 years when the true value of picks is better evaluated.  'Busts' cannot continue to be ignored as if they shouldn't happen.

 

[grey wolf 226]

The important thing here surely is making the deal the best it can be ... we are not good enough yet to make the GF... and those who think we only have to wait till our boys mature are in my opinion playing with the pixies ... we have to improve... Jesse is a good footballer with some questionable traits or habits and perhaps not the true KPF many suggest he is... but he is our best chance to gain currency in this draft to improve our list dramatically not just by JT’s stealth... and we get the monkey off our back as to will he or won’t he... I’m confident based on recent years that the FD have their [censored] together so I’m just going to have another smoke and enjoy the ride...the pies going down today mean they will attack the trade head on even though they are better than us... let’s get in front of them in 2019

[Dr. Gonzo 22,412]

5 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Need to do a strong deal

i wanted hogan to stay but now must get in two top 10 picks. 

Must push for 5/6 & 10 not 9 & 10.

[beelzebub 22,225]

24 minutes ago, Win4theAges said:

If we dont get more than 2 first round picks, it is going to be seen as [censored] weak by the MFC, this for a ready made Key Forward.

What do you think Collingwood, Essendon or Richmond would be asking for?

 

Might depend what they need to get what they want in other trades.

[spirit of norm smith 12,899]

Yes Hogan was a Melbourne player. Our messiah.   Big key forward described as the next Wayne Carey. 

Injuries and the go home factor mean we may not see his best in red and blue. 

MFC NEEDS TO MAKE FREO PAY TOP DOLLAR BOTH IN CONTRACT $$$ PLUS TWO FIRST ROUND PICKS

[Ethan Tremblay 28,362]

1 hour ago, Ugottobekidding said:

 

He moved out of home at an early age, lost his dad and had testicular cancer. So what if he does hero? 

Edited September 29, 2018 by george_on_the_outer

[Engorged Onion 9,262]

12 minutes ago, grey wolf said:

The important thing here surely is making the deal the best it can be ... we are not good enough yet to make the GF... and those who think we only have to wait till our boys mature are in my opinion playing with the pixies ... we have to improve... Jesse is a good footballer with some questionable traits or habits and perhaps not the true KPF many suggest he is... but he is our best chance to gain currency in this draft to improve our list dramatically not just by JT’s stealth... and we get the monkey off our back as to will he or won’t he... I’m confident based on recent years that the FD have their [censored] together so I’m just going to have another smoke and enjoy the ride...the pies going down today mean they will attack the trade head on even though they are better than us... let’s get in front of them in 2019

ive missed your input @grey wolf - however this post was far too prosaic for my liking

[JTR 2,627]

Let's not start ragging on Hogan and getting into the "he was no good anyway" stuff like always seems to happen when a player looks like they are leaving us.

[Stretch Johnson 2,568]

50 minutes ago, Ugottobekidding said:

 

You must be a hard man to be able to make those calls.

Super successful, strong and powerful.

Must hold yourself to amazing standards.

Yet  you are incoherent.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by george_on_the_outer

[goodwindees 2,118]

4 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

Hibberd, Melksham, Lewis, Garlett, Vince. Frost depending on how you rate him.

Anyway, the talk of an 'early first rounder' for May does trouble me a little and I'm wondering about the package deal options given Kolodjashnij, and also Gold Coasts picks 17 and 26, both of which seem to be in the high quality range of this allegedly deep draft.

Could it be that Jason Taylor has identified a few players in that pick 20-30 range that he has a lot of confidence in? He can't spend his whole career picking from 40+, can he?

No negotiation in any of those you mentioned. Hibberd & Melksham were so obviously a 2nd round picks at where we were. Never 1st or 3rd rounders. 

Lewis & Garlett we’re pushed out by their Clubs and nobody else wanted them, once again, no negotiation skill required. 

Vince, read Hibberd & Melksham. 

Plenty would argue we paid a little too much for Frost, put it this way, he wasn’t a steal. 

We are one of those Clubs that seem to be very easy for other Clubs to deal with and for just once I want to do an Essendon type deal where we clearly can say we got Overs. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,412]

4 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

It’s the talk of how early the first rounder is that conerns me. At a minimum I’d want their second round pick to come with May.

Agreed ET I'd want something coming back our way if we sent pick 10 for May even if we got KK thrown in

[Wiseblood 24,636]

41 minutes ago, Ugottobekidding said:

 

Edited September 29, 2018 by george_on_the_outer

[Jaded No More 57,800]

14 minutes ago, JTR said:

Let's not start ragging on Hogan and getting into the "he was no good anyway" stuff like always seems to happen when a player looks like they are leaving us.

He was and will continue to be a very very good player. But one player does not make a club. One player does not win a premiership. We will move on and so will he. 

[DemonOX 8,530]

I’m not concerned that he is leaving. It seems to have always been on the cards since he arrived. 

Get a good return now and move one instead of this constant [censored] every season. 

The forward line functioned really well without him. 

[markc 975]

53 minutes ago, Ugottobekidding said:

 

you should be banned , have you ever lost anyone ? 

have you ever lost someone to cancer ? 

have you yourself lived with having cancer ? 

 

yes I know all about it . how dare you say what you said. 

Edited September 29, 2018 by george_on_the_outer

[DV8 2,271]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Must push for 5/6 & 10 not 9 & 10.

Pick 5 or 6 has to be the starting point, along with 9 or 10 for Jesse.

Then we can roll P5/6 into more picks IF we want... or go to the draft with Pick5/6 and take a young gun.  I don't believe in placing all our Golden-Eggs in the one age bracket.

And whoz to say that all our young-gun Mids will be stars for us?   OR un-injured.

[old55 21,288]

1 hour ago, goodwindees said:

No negotiation in any of those you mentioned. Hibberd & Melksham were so obviously a 2nd round picks at where we were. Never 1st or 3rd rounders. 

Lewis & Garlett we’re pushed out by their Clubs and nobody else wanted them, once again, no negotiation skill required. 

Vince, read Hibberd & Melksham. 

Plenty would argue we paid a little too much for Frost, put it this way, he wasn’t a steal. 

We are one of those Clubs that seem to be very easy for other Clubs to deal with and for just once I want to do an Essendon type deal where we clearly can say we got Overs. 

What are all these Essendon trading coups you are referring to?

Edited September 29, 2018 by Fifty-5

[Frustrated Demon 233]

5 minutes ago, markc said:

you should be banned , have you ever lost anyone ? 

have you ever lost someone to cancer ? 

have you yourself lived with having cancer ? 

 

yes I know all about it . how dare you say what you said. 

He has been trolling this post with a few comments

[SFebes 4,692]

27 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Must push for 5/6 & 10 not 9 & 10.

I'm with you.

5/6 & 10 plus swap of picks.

10 to GC for May & Kolodjashnij (GC has said to look elsewhere)

6, 33 & future 1st for Kelly (plus whatever it takes)

In: May, Kolodjashnij, Kelly, (Gaff).

Out: Hogan

Possible but unlikely: Gaff

 

At the start of the year Mahoney said we have room for 2 more upgraders, with the departure of Hogan, I think we are going to swoop hard in the next few weeks, it's game on!

Also, I'm happy to discuss stats and players, but don't disrespect Jesse wanting to go home after what he's been through, I probably would've left last year. He just never got a decent run at it and us going deep into finals was obviously the icing on his cake. The players we bring in will be the foundation of our premiership tilt.