POSTGAME: Rd 03 vs Port Adelaide

[loges 6,029]

5 hours ago, TheWiz said:

Mid way through the 4th quarter he did a late bump on Rozee from behind. It was paid as a downfield free kick and Rozee did look like he had some wind knocked out.

When I saw the replay it didn’t look too bad. More body on body and a bit towards the side and back. A second later I think it would be more of an issue, but I would be surprised if he was suspended for it.

As we've seen for Brisbane or Collingwood it's a fine but could be a week because Melbourne 

[Viney Vidi Vici 110]

I liked this game because it didn't hold to the standard narrative. It wasn't one of Port letting one go, or us dominating certain statistics. First quarter they were outspreading us, the defence was rattled, and than we went into siege mode and just inched our way out of trouble. My read was the coaching at 1/4 time was- Make it a contested game and take our opportunities. We knew they'd hit us fast, but we'd just absorb and make contests where possible and than take advantage of moments. 

3 votes- coaching staff. 

[whatwhat say what 18,979]

1 minute ago, Viney Vidi Vici said:

3 votes- coaching staff. 

the half time switch of petty to a defensive forward role on aliir was inspired 

[Engorged Onion 9,284]

1 minute ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

I must admit, I'm bamboozled by all this expected score nonsense. As I understand it, the metric measures the score both teams would have achieved - if the league's averages for goal kicking capability were to be applied. In other words, it's a measure of what would have happened if the team was average?

Is that correct - or am I missing something?

Someone will get the specifics right... andeffectively out of each teams scoring shots in each game - you have a slightly higher percentage that is goals than points - ie: 60% of your scoring shots are goals. Then they've added in, where those shots are taken... that is my understanding.

So for last night -

Ports - 13.11 becomes 15.9

Mebs - 15.6  becomes 12.9

and then

[Chook 14,502]

1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

the amount of whinging about the umpires - from both sets of supporters - is pretty extraordinary

When both sets of supporters are whinging then you know the umpiring has been pretty solid. Like that old saying about compromise:

 

[OhMyDees 1,321]

Rozee should be reported for staging in that ‘sling tackle’. He took a dive and went limp deliberately to win the free. 

[Fritta and Turner 3,683]

8 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

i think derm just recalled beating up on us his entire playing career and, as such, considers us inferior

an inherent bias

Not all the time.  Didnt we beat the Hawks the last game of the season and the first final; Rohde on Dermie, Swooper the coach?

[Axis of Bob 10,228]

10 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Someone will get the specifics right... andeffectively out of each teams scoring shots in each game - you have a slightly higher percentage that is goals than points - ie: 60% of your scoring shots are goals. Then they've added in, where those shots are taken... that is my understanding.

So for last night -

Ports - 13.11 becomes 15.9

Mebs - 15.6  becomes 12.9

and then

Close.

It depends on what the average is for shots taken at each location. For instance, a shot from the goal square is converted, say, at 95% accuracy on average. So, on average, you should score 5.75 points from that shot at goal in average (95% x 6 points + 5% x 1 point). But from 40m out directly in front you would kick a goal 50% of the time, a point 40% and no score 10%. So you have an expected score of 3.4 points (0.5x6 + 0.4x1 + 0.1x0).

The expected score just stops counting before you kick at goal without caring if you miss, whilst the actual score cares very much about whether or not you miss.

Edited March 31 by Axis of Bob

[jane02 3,338]

12 hours ago, Left Foot Snap said:

Gee, Tassie coming in will be interesting then!!

Now now - my mum and her side of the family were Tasmanians, and I don't have two heads!

[binman 38,145]

17 minutes ago, Boots and all said:

I actually thought the game was fairly well officiated overall, yes, a few absolute clangers but that's pretty standard, the umps aren't robots.

I thought so too.

The free against rivers was a pretty big clanger though given the potential impact on the result. 

I'm pretty sure that free was an error because he paid a sling tackle, not say something like a reversal for unduly rough play.

A free had already been paid, so the game was in time on, ie the ball was no longer 'live'. 

Rivers obviously didn't know that, so tackled rozee.

He wouldn't have been awarded a free kick if rozee had dropped the ball - so how could he pinged for one (other than something like a reversal from say unduly rough play)?

[old dee 22,854]

5 hours ago, SPC said:

Was down with Covid last night and asleep at 8, so just finished the replay. A couple of things I noticed…

Oliver is back.. was finding his feet the first few rounds, but last night he got stronger as the game went on. Was swooping on loose balls and moving through traffic like AA Clayton.

Howes is a very good footballer. Class and poise, rarely beaten. 

Juddy is under the radar.. just does everything well

The Team look connected… tapping to advantage, blocking, selfless running. We had it in 2021, first time I’ve seen it since, and I’ve seen it 3 times already this year. 

I cannot Imagine a Better tonic for covid than watching the Dees win last night. 

Edited March 31 by old dee

[binman 38,145]

2 minutes ago, jane02 said:

Now now - my mum and her side of the family were Tasmanians, and I don't have two heads!

Are you sure?

The other head is not called jane01?

[jane02 3,338]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

Are you sure?

The other head is not called jane01?

Jane is actually my middle name hence 02. My dad's side of the family were proud Victorians so any of the suss genetics were watered out. I do have a few odd cousins however.

[Demon Disciple 10,958]

15 minutes ago, Jontee said:

Not all the time.  Didnt we beat the Hawks the last game of the season and the first final; Rohde on Dermie, Swooper the coach?

1990. Was almost unheard of to do that to the Hawks back then. Then we got a week off due to a final being drawn, and subsequently gave WCE their first ever finals victory.

1990 was indeed a year that could have been.

[Wrecker46 2,656]

2 hours ago, Brownie said:

Charlie Dixon went off his line with his set shot after the siren as well.

I'm amazed Max didn't he normally runs with a bit of an arc on thos long bombs

[binman 38,145]

8 minutes ago, jane02 said:

Jane is actually my middle name hence 02. My dad's side of the family were proud Victorians so any of the suss genetics were watered out. I do have a few odd cousins however.

Don't we all.

[Queanbeyan Demon 5,963]

22 minutes ago, Jontee said:

Not all the time.  Didnt we beat the Hawks the last game of the season and the first final; Rohde on Dermie, Swooper the coach?

One of the great fortnights of my life.

[whatwhat say what 18,979]

6 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

1990. Was almost unheard of to do that to the Hawks back then. Then we got a week off due to a final being drawn, and subsequently gave WCE their first ever finals victory.

1990 was indeed a year that could have been.

the exceptions that proved the rule

i was sitting high up in the ponsford; the only row behind us filled up and the chap sitting behind us looked through the gaping hole where the southern stand was being built and said "huh...you can see the dandenongs from here"

you couldn't see what was happening deep in the forward pocket underneath us tho

[John Crow Batty 8,255]

40 minutes ago, Queanbeyan Demon said:

I must admit, I'm bamboozled by all this expected score nonsense. As I understand it, the metric measures the score both teams would have achieved - if the league's averages for goal kicking capability were to be applied. In other words, it's a measure of what would have happened if the team was average?

Is that correct - or am I missing something?

Flawed system that weights theoretical perfection and what ifs over the reality that in our game errors and chaos are a constant and ignores the rule that game play always resets after a score or stoppage. Kicking ten behinds in a row does not mean ten goals were missed. It only means a behind was scored after the last behind only. 

Edited March 31 by John Crow Batty

[binman 38,145]

For me, one of the most impressive parts of the win was I thought we had a number of players that had average games, particularly from some of our younger players.

It was our leaders who stood up and willed us over the line.

From @WheeloRatings stats in the stats file, compulsory post game reading for me, our top 5 pressure players tells the tale:

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Jack Viney	39	80	59.8
Alex Neal-Bullen	30	66	51.0
Christian Petracca	26	57	43.5
Clayton Oliver	20	45	42.5
Max Gawn	18	41	30.8

Hard to argue those 5 weren't our best five players.

[WalkingCivilWar 31,811]

[Demonland 64,972]

Sound up 🔊

 

[Willmoy1947 3,780]

15 hours ago, Rod Grinter Riot Squad said:

Wow, I thought the umpires were more than generous to us…

You're just not used to the way it should be when they are fair.....or close to it

[demon3165 1,918]

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

The Gawn one was classic "ruck lotto". The rules in those contests are so unpredictable. If that had gone the other way we'd have been ropeable.

I was equally ropeable at the Rozee one, that was horrendous IMO.

Should change the ruck rules no contact until the ball is in the air.

[Demon Disciple 10,958]

46 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Sound up 🔊

 

At the 30 second mark you can see security coming to remove BBB from the ground due to his anti-social behaviour

Edited March 31 by Demon Disciple