WheeloRatings

Here is my expected scores ladder based on expected wins. Rather than distilling the expected scores for a given match down to a win/loss/draw, the xWin % for a given match is the probability of the team winning given the expected scores.

Melbourne v Fremantle (Round 19, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241904 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 73.7 75.7 -2.0 Kicking Efficiency 68.2 64.4 +3.8 Metres Gained 5801 6458 -657 Inside 50s 47 60 -13 Shots At Goal 18 35 -17 Shots Per Inside 50 38.3 58.3 -20.0 Contested Possessions 105 141 -36 Ground Ball Gets 84 88 -4 Intercepts 74 66 +8 Intercept Marks 15 16 -1 Centre Clearances 8 17 -9 Stoppage Clearances 8 30 -22 Contested Marks 8 11 -3 Marks Inside 50 13 21 -8 Hitouts 9 47 -38 Hitouts To Advantage 0 17 -17 Tackles 50 32 +18 Tackles Inside 50 14 4 +10 Def One On One Loss % 28.6 0.0 +28.6 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 5 5 0 Loose Ball Get 18 10 +8 Contested Mark 2 2 0 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 1 -1 Gather From Hitout 0 1 -1 Contested Knock On 2 0 +2 Free For 2 2 0 Total 29 21 +8 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 2 8 -6 Loose Ball Get 6 12 -6 Contested Mark 1 2 -1 Gather From Hitout 0 3 -3 Free For 0 2 -2 Total 9 27 -18 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 11 14 -3 Loose Ball Get 49 46 +3 Contested Mark 8 11 -3 Contested Knock On 2 3 -1 Free For 7 12 -5 Total 77 86 -9 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 7 7 0 Loose Ball Get 17 21 -4 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 5 -5 Gather From Hitout 0 16 -16 Contested Knock On 0 1 -1 Free For 4 5 -1 Total 28 55 -27 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 60.5 66 1 0% +14.6 Fremantle 125.0 116 2 100% +64.6 +50 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 18 10.5.65 55.6% 59.5 +5.5 3.30 +0.31 Fremantle 35 17.12.114 48.6% 123.0 −9.0 3.51 −0.26 General Play Melbourne 5 2.2.14 40.0% 14.1 −0.1 2.81 −0.01 Fremantle 13 5.5.35 38.5% 44.9 −9.9 3.45 −0.76 Set Position Melbourne 13 8.3.51 61.5% 45.4 +5.6 3.49 +0.43 Fremantle 22 12.7.79 54.5% 78.2 +0.8 3.55 +0.04 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 168 148 +20 2 149 148 +1 3 195 159 +36 4 177 161 +16 Match 173 154 +19 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Kysaiah Pickett 30 65 41.9 Kade Chandler 27 56 45.7 Alex Neal-Bullen 31 55 53.2 Tom Sparrow 27 53 43.9 Clayton Oliver 21 48 44.3 Harrison Petty 19 45 30.0 Jack Viney 20 42 57.6 Trent Rivers 18 36 28.7 Caleb Windsor 16 34 33.0 Ed Langdon 15 30 31.1 Christian Salem 13 28 26.7 Jake Bowey 10 28 17.2 Andy Moniz-Wakefield 11 23 33.5 Jacob van Rooyen 10 22 17.6 Bayley Fritsch 8 17 15.7 Tom McDonald 8 15 20.6 Jake Lever 7 14 14.6 Koltyn Tholstrup 9 13 34.5 Jack Billings 8 12 22.8 Judd McVee 10 12 14.6 Daniel Turner 4 12 14.1 Jake Melksham 6 11 11.0 Steven May 5 11 10.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 33% 67% 2 36% 64% 3 68% 32% 4 44% 56% Match 47% 53% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 2.1.13 0.0.0 +13 Centre Bounce 1.0.6 1.2.8 -2 Stoppage (Other) 1.0.6 3.5.23 -17 Turnover 6.5.41 13.7.85 -44 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 13 3.2 0 2.2 Centre Bounce 6 10.0 8 7.3 Stoppage (Other) 6 22.2 23 19.2 Turnover 41 43.4 85 48.9 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 6 10.0 8 7.3 Kick-in D50 13 3.2 0 2.2 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 2.3 0 1.4 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 1.9 1 1.8 Stoppage (Other) Wing 6 12.6 7 8.9 Stoppage (Other) F50 0 5.3 15 6.9 Turnover D50 8 8.6 32 8.6 Turnover Centre 18 8.1 13 7.6 Turnover Wing 9 20.3 39 26.6 Turnover F50 6 6.4 1 6.2 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 21 14.1 32 12.3 Centre 24 20.0 22 16.7 Wing 15 32.9 46 35.5 F50 6 11.7 16 13.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 21 14.1 32 12.3 Defensive midfield 6 17.9 32 19.3 Centre bounce 6 10.0 8 7.3 Attacking midfield 27 25.0 28 25.6 Forward 50 6 11.7 16 13.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 27 32.0 64 31.6 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Fremantle. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Clayton Oliver 21 72% 71.5% 81.4% Jack Viney 20 69% 67.5% 72.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 52% 19.4% 7.6% Alex Neal-Bullen 14 48% 17.0% 2.1% Harrison Petty 14 48% 10.0% 0.7% Kysaiah Pickett 10 34% 37.6% 11.2% Tom Sparrow 10 34% 36.3% 44.9% Trent Rivers 8 28% 21.0% 3.0% Christian Salem 4 14% 14.7% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 0 0% 1.2% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.4% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Max Gawn 84.3% 64.9% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 4.4% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Jacob van Rooyen 30 41% 18.0% 13.1% Harrison Petty 28 38% 9.5% 2.0% Daniel Turner 15 21% 4.3% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Max Gawn 81.4% 57.5% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Harrison Petty 28 6 0 26.3% 25.0% Jacob van Rooyen 30 3 0 25.7% 31.1% Daniel Turner 15 0 0 50.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Max Gawn 26.9% 30.1% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Sean Darcy 56 34 9 Luke Jackson 17 13 8

Pressure act differential isn't a good measure as you're likely to rank low if you have the ball more often than the opposition. Pressure rating differential would be a better measure as it's based on average pressure per disposal. This is what @binman would have been referring to. Unfortunately, I don't have access to pressure rating data, other than Melbourne for the past two seasons.

Here are our scores from stoppage per season: Season For Against Diff 2021 33.7 23.8 +10.0 2022 35.9 27.0 +8.9 2023 34.5 28.4 +6.1 2024 33.4 26.2 +7.2 You can access scores from stoppage by team here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?year=2024 And each match for Melbourne here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats_team.html?ID=melb

Sorry, the "drop off" was in reference to the number of contests. We're having fewer contests and we're losing a smaller percentage of them.

Nah, the lower the percentage, the fewer 1v1 contests you have lost.

There has been a noticeable drop off in defensive 1v1 contests over the last five weeks. Our 1v1 loss % from round 0-10 was 29.0% and from round 11-18 it has dropped to 18.5%. Round Opposition Def. 1v1s Losses % Key Defenders (50+% time on ground) (Adam Tomlinson, Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald) 0 Sydney 10 2 20.0% Adam Tomlinson, Jake Lever, Steven May 1 Western Bulldogs 10 3 30.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 2 Hawthorn 10 1 10.0% Jake Lever, Tom McDonald 3 Port Adelaide 12 7 58.3% Jake Lever, Tom McDonald 4 Adelaide 14 4 28.6% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 5 Brisbane 10 3 30.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 7 Richmond 7 2 28.6% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 8 Geelong 12 3 25.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 9 Carlton 12 4 33.3% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 10 West Coast 10 2 20.0% Steven May, Tom McDonald 11 St Kilda 13 1 7.7% Adam Tomlinson, Steven May, Tom McDonald 12 Fremantle 15 2 13.3% Adam Tomlinson, Steven May, Tom McDonald 13 Collingwood 8 1 12.5% Steven May, Tom McDonald 15 North Melbourne 7 3 42.9% Adam Tomlinson, Steven May, Tom McDonald 16 Brisbane 7 1 14.3% Adam Tomlinson, Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 17 West Coast 10 2 20.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald 18 Essendon 5 2 40.0% Jake Lever, Steven May, Tom McDonald

It doesn't appear to be as significant (noting that the HBG differential is generally quite a bit lower than over CP diff) Win HBG by 1-3: 54% win Win HBG by 4-6: 58% win Win HBG by 7-9: 67% win Win HBG by 10+: 71% win

I don't know exactly how those figures were calculated, but my calculations are as follows: Win CP by 1-6: 54% win Win CP by 7-13: 64% win Win CP by 14-21: 76% win Win CP by 22+: 87% win My understanding is that the definition has not changed.

I had the privilege of collaborating (in a small way) with Cody Atkinson on the following article regarding contested possessions. These guys regularly put out fantastic and insightful AFL articles for the ABC and are well worth a read. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-19/afl-2024-premiership-importance-of-contested-possessions/104113954 The contested possession has increasingly gained prominence in recent years, with players, coaches, commentators and fans offering different opinions on its role in the AFL. Star Sydney Swans midfielder Errol Gulden has described contested possessions as "a key indicator for success", but not everyone in the AFL is enamoured by the concept. "Contested ball is just a fancy term for everyone in the media," Alastair Clarkson said in 2016. "We don't give a toss about that … we've won five contested-ball contests in about two years, so we've still won lots of games of footy." So how important are contested possessions? And what even is a contested possession?

The Champion Data player ratings can be represented as an average per match over a given period (e.g. a season) which is how I present them on the website (and is what @Fat Tony has used): https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html?year=2024 In addition, these ratings can be presented as a rolling two-year (max 40 games) total, as you mentioned, and this is how they are presented on the AFL Stats Leaders page: https://www.afl.com.au/stats/leaders?category=Key+Stats&seasonId=62&roundId=-1&roundNumber=0&sortColumn=ratingPoints&sortDirection=descending&positions=All&teams=All&benchmarking=false&dataType=averages&playerOneId=null&playerTwoId=null I have previously calculated the ratings in the same way, but they're not on my website:

Melbourne v Essendon (Round 18, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241805 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 67.5 71.5 -4.0 Kicking Efficiency 60.9 64.8 -3.9 Metres Gained 6008 5555 +453 Inside 50s 49 56 -7 Shots At Goal 21 22 -1 Shots Per Inside 50 42.9 39.3 +3.6 Contested Possessions 142 135 +7 Ground Ball Gets 109 94 +15 Intercepts 87 89 -2 Intercept Marks 19 17 +2 Centre Clearances 14 11 +3 Stoppage Clearances 30 21 +9 Contested Marks 4 7 -3 Marks Inside 50 8 13 -5 Hitouts 27 43 -16 Hitouts To Advantage 9 13 -4 Tackles 56 70 -14 Tackles Inside 50 10 7 +3 Def One On One Loss % 40.0 18.8 +21.2 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 4 6 -2 Loose Ball Get 14 6 +8 Gather From Hitout 1 0 +1 Contested Knock On 1 2 -1 Free For 1 1 0 Total 21 15 +6 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 5 3 +2 Loose Ball Get 10 17 -7 Contested Mark 1 5 -4 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 2 -2 Gather From Hitout 1 0 +1 Contested Knock On 2 0 +2 Free For 2 2 0 Total 21 29 -8 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 15 17 -2 Loose Ball Get 58 62 -4 Contested Mark 4 7 -3 Contested Knock On 3 4 -1 Free For 12 9 +3 Total 92 99 -7 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 10 4 +6 Loose Ball Get 26 11 +15 Ruck Hard Ball Get 1 4 -3 Gather From Hitout 8 10 -2 Contested Knock On 4 2 +2 Free For 1 5 -4 Total 50 36 +14 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets. 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 71.3 84 2 40% +17 +21.2 Essendon 75.5 67 0 60% +4.2 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 21 13.4.82 61.9% 69.3 +12.7 3.30 +0.61 Essendon 22 10.7.67 45.5% 75.5 −8.5 3.43 −0.39 General Play Melbourne 12 6.3.39 50.0% 36.6 +2.4 3.05 +0.20 Essendon 8 2.3.15 25.0% 22.7 −7.7 2.84 −0.97 Set Position Melbourne 9 7.1.43 77.8% 32.7 +10.3 3.63 +1.15 Essendon 14 8.4.52 57.1% 52.8 −0.8 3.77 −0.06 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Agn Diff 1 175 177 -2 2 199 201 -2 3 164 207 -43 4 168 167 +1 Match 176 190 -14 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Trent Rivers 19 52 28.3 Andy Moniz-Wakefield 19 48 37.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 22 47 53.1 Koltyn Tholstrup 18 43 38.8 Harrison Petty 20 43 28.9 Jack Viney 19 42 58.5 Clayton Oliver 19 42 44.1 Kade Chandler 22 40 45.1 Ed Langdon 19 37 31.2 Tom Sparrow 20 36 43.4 Kysaiah Pickett 17 33 40.4 Caleb Windsor 15 27 32.9 Tom McDonald 11 24 21.0 Jacob van Rooyen 11 24 17.3 Daniel Turner 9 22 14.3 Christian Salem 10 21 26.6 Steven May 9 20 9.9 Bayley Fritsch 10 19 15.6 Jake Melksham 7 17 11.0 Jake Lever 8 14 14.7 Jake Bowey 6 11 16.0 Judd McVee 5 11 14.7 Taj Woewodin 1 1 13.2 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 47% 53% 2 60% 40% 3 51% 49% 4 41% 59% Match 51% 49% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0.6 0.0.0 +6 Centre Bounce 1.1.7 1.0.6 +1 Stoppage (Other) 3.3.21 1.2.8 +13 Turnover 8.2.50 8.5.53 -3 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 2.6 0 2.4 Centre Bounce 7 10.2 6 7.2 Stoppage (Other) 21 23.1 8 18.9 Turnover 50 43.5 53 46.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 7 10.2 6 7.2 Kick-in D50 6 2.6 0 2.4 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 2.4 0 1.5 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.1 0 1.9 Stoppage (Other) Wing 18 13.0 7 9.1 Stoppage (Other) F50 3 5.6 1 6.5 Turnover D50 6 8.6 0 7.2 Turnover Centre 13 7.5 0 7.3 Turnover Wing 19 21.0 52 25.8 Turnover F50 12 6.4 1 6.5 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 12 13.6 0 11.1 Centre 20 19.8 6 16.4 Wing 37 34.0 59 34.9 F50 15 12.1 2 12.9 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 12 13.6 0 11.1 Defensive midfield 12 18.6 32 18.6 Centre bounce 7 10.2 6 7.2 Attacking midfield 38 24.9 27 25.5 Forward 50 15 12.1 2 12.9 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 24 32.3 32 29.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Essendon. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Trent Rivers 21 78% 20.6% 3.0% Clayton Oliver 18 67% 71.5% 81.4% Kysaiah Pickett 17 63% 37.8% 11.2% Jack Viney 16 59% 67.4% 72.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 56% 16.9% 7.6% Harrison Petty 12 44% 6.9% 0.7% Alex Neal-Bullen 9 33% 14.9% 2.1% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 36.4% 44.9% Christian Salem 0 0% 14.8% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 0 0% 1.5% Daniel Turner 0 0% 0.4% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Max Gawn 84.3% 64.9% Christian Petracca 55.8% 61.1% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 4.4% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Lachie Hunter 0.0% 0.2% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Jacob van Rooyen 48 49% 16.8% 13.1% Harrison Petty 44 45% 7.9% 2.0% Daniel Turner 6 6% 2.8% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Max Gawn 81.4% 57.5% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0.0% 0.4% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Jacob van Rooyen 48 17 6 26.8% 31.1% Harrison Petty 44 10 3 31.2% 25.0% Daniel Turner 6 0 0 50.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Max Gawn 26.9% 30.1% Christian Petracca 100.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Sam Draper 79 33 12 Peter Wright 11 7 1 Nik Cox 8 3 0

@sue @titan_uranus in response to a query on the pregame thread, the last team in the top 4 with a percentage below 100 this late in the season was Geelong after round 18, 2000. https://afltables.com/afl/seas/2000.html#18 (Melbourne finished 1989 in 4th with a percentage of 96.5)