GAMEDAY: Rd 12 vs Carlton

[beelzebub 22,225]

5 minutes ago, Deespicable said:

It's hard not to be fearful of what might happen in this game.

Clearly, based on the Blues recent tales of self-destruction, we win easily. Cripps seems injured (slower than normal), Harry has the yips and Charlie is finding the burden of being the No.1 player in the game (Robbo's view) hard to live up to. Add in the injuries and it's hard not to back us and just about every tipster in the country is.

But those who remember Joe Daniher destroying us on a couple of occasions (and losing the plot in a  couple of others) know that this could be the night when Harry converts his first on Tomlinson and gets on a roll. Given we aren't playing hard tags (Harmes is out of favour) it could also be the night that Cripps gets rolling (unless Sparrow has a blinder on him). And it's not as if their injuries are key omissions - their six out are all depth players replaced by in-form VFL depth players. Their midfield core of Walsh, Cerra and Cripps are all playing so Charlie may have enough supply, while Saad and Docherty are still in to provide run and Weitering, McGovern and Young good enough to quell our key forwards.

What worries me most is that, under Goody, we continue to play four small forwards and with no major height through the middle aside from Trac, we get picked off whenever we try switchbacks from our left-side defensive forays.

I don't understand how we can continue to play four small forwards - we are the only side doing it and aside from a few magic forays from Kozzie and the early form of Chandler, the benefits of the structure are non-existent. And the goals have dried up recently. Chandler has kicked one goal in his past three, ANB one in the past four and Spargo nine for the year.

It's not as if they are smalls that take the odd surprise mark or are that we get benefits from their tackles. Yes they all work their butt off but who would you rather tackle you - Beau McCreery, Sam Powell-Pepper, Zac Bailey or Chandler, Spargo and ANB. Which is not to say that our trio don't work their butts off - it just that at 175c, 172cm, 182cm plus Kozzie at 171cm our small forwards aren't intimidating. And that is one of the major reasons why we have absolutely no chance against Collingwood, although Carlton's current propensity to self-destruct should enable us to get through tonight.   

You've earnt an Elephant stamp for excellence. 

A very decent appraisal of our malaise. 

Crossed fingers and toes for tonight 

[Little Goffy 12,565]

In: A.Cincotta, Le.Young, J.Silvagni, Z.Fisher, L.O'Brien

Honestly... a loss tonight would deeply test my belief in our seriousness for 2023.

Also, we're not going to lose.

[Deebauched 1,219]

2 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Start drinking early is always the preferred option fd !

 

Game starts at 4.50pm up here in Bangers. The late night starts are absurd. Alot of people will get drunk to relieve the boredom and tension(mfc) . Too much waiting around imho. Some wont get home till well after midnight when all the goblins and ghouls come out to feast.

No problem for Tricky Gill. His house is only minutes away from the G assuming he hasnt already jetted off 1st class to Europe for the summer.

Thats nice dear.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Deebauched

[McQueen 17,863]

11 hours ago, FireInTheBennelly said:

I’m almost certain you had other images in mind. 

[dl4e 5,583]

Sorry I can only see a loss. Our forward line is [censored]. Curnow will be pulling on his jumper all night. 

We need Petty back in the side and at CHF.

[Bitter but optimistic 21,246]

26 minutes ago, Deebauched said:

Game starts at 4.50pm up here in Bangers. The late night starts are absurd. Alot of people will get drunk to relieve the boredom and tension(mfc) . Too much waiting around imho. Some wont get home till well after midnight when all the goblins and ghouls come out to feast.

No problem for Tricky Gill. His house is only minutes away from the G assuming he hasnt already jetted off 1st class to Europe for the summer.

Thats nice dear.

What venue will you be watching from Deebauched?

Edited June 2, 2023 by Bitter but optimistic
typo

[rufus 916]

Losing Hibberd hurts us given he's one of our guys who attacks the contest the right way. Harmes and McDonald out should theoretically help our contest, although our depth is looking very concerning when Smith and Tomlinson are now both in the side. Hunter also a net negative for our chance of putting up a decent effort if tested in the physicality stakes.

Simply can't see us winning without Oliver if Carlton bring the heat physically...hopefully they don't (or we go back to applying pressure like we did for a fleeting period a few years back, in which case we'd be fine).

[Demonsterative 1,914]

Just realised Paddy Dow has been left out again… Given the injuries the Blues have I find it very strange. Would he compliment our midfield as a trade prospect next year? 

[Deebauched 1,219]

8 minutes ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

What venue will you be watching from Deebauched?

There's a few bars and pubs along Sukhumvit rd in the Nana district that show AFL. I dont go anymore too old to put up with pesky bar girls and bar stool bogans trying to explain to foreigners that aussie rules is not an Australian game but Irish. I rarely drink in public in Bangkok.  Listen live on SEN on the iphone. Plenty of footy replays post game online.

[layzie 28,721]

10 minutes ago, Demonsterative said:

Just realised Paddy Dow has been left out again… Given the injuries the Blues have I find it very strange. Would he compliment our midfield as a trade prospect next year? 

I've thought about it, he's playing some very good footy in the VFL. 

[whatwhat say what 18,918]

12 minutes ago, Demonsterative said:

Just realised Paddy Dow has been left out again… Given the injuries the Blues have I find it very strange. Would he compliment our midfield as a trade prospect next year? 

good vfl-level player

he's as big a bust as toumpas

[Jibroni 4,055]

Have a sick feeling about this one and Carlton might pull one out the bag.

 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,795]

1 hour ago, Newport34 said:

I can see JVR drawing two defenders and Smith flying in front of the pack taking marks. 

Ive seen VFL highlights over the past few weeks he can take a pack mark and kick truely something we have been missing for a long time.

Joel has a high leap, and is quick over the ground.

Hope he has seen the last of his injury worries and he can compete and make himself a nuisance for Carlton’s backline.

Go Dees.

[Roost it far 6,043]

Whilst many lament the thought of us running McKay into form what about those relishing the prospect of Carlton running us into form and Smith kicking 3-4 and showing he might just have something. A little tweak here and a little tweak there and we're up and about like its 2021! Go Dee's.

I think I've got something seriously wrong with me. Within 12 hours of a match I just can't see us losing, it's happened all my life. In the past reality would strike early in the game, nowadays it comes later!

[Bitter but optimistic 21,246]

11 minutes ago, Deebauched said:

There's a few bars and pubs along Sukhumvit rd in the Nana district that show AFL. I dont go anymore too old to put up with pesky bar girls and bar stool bogans trying to explain to foreigners that aussie rules is not an Australian game but Irish. I rarely drink in public in Bangkok.  Listen live on SEN on the iphone. Plenty of footy replays post game online.

Have you tried Fitzpatrick's up the plaza end of Sukhumvit. Usually not too crowded and no bar girls only waitresses?

Good food too!

[Demon Dynasty 15,413]

1 hour ago, Deespicable said:

What worries me most is that, under Goody, we continue to play four small forwards and with no major height through the middle 

I don't understand how we can continue to play four small forwards - we are the only side doing it and aside from a few magic forays from Kozzie and the early form of Chandler, the benefits of the structure are non-existent. And the goals have dried up recently. Chandler has kicked one goal in his past three, ANB one in the past four and Spargo nine for the year.

It's not as if they are smalls that take the odd surprise mark or are that we get benefits from their tackles. Yes they all work their butt off but who would you rather tackle you - Beau McCreery, Sam Powell-Pepper, Zac Bailey or Chandler, Spargo and ANB. Which is not to say that our trio don't work their butts off - it just that at 175c, 172cm, 182cm plus Kozzie at 171cm our small forwards aren't intimidating. 

Goody's finally recognised that not playing a third tall (ie; usually Petty but also Tomo or Disco) is to the detriment of our team defence & defence in general by having Lever play on the oppo's 2nd best tall.

So a big tick on this front to Goody & Co 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

But will def need Petty to go back once fit imv unless a medium tall (like Disco instead of Tomo) is able to cover some oppo smaller forward lines.  Then maybe the odd foray forward for Petty but even then only IF needed.

Don't know which plays what part of the ground more as a forward but whoever plays higher up more of the time out of Curnow & McKay, that's who we need Tomo to go to imv.  Away from goals Tomo's a much better proposition than playing deep where he often ends up in the road of other defenders or a bit of panic sets in resulting in the odd clanger goal.

The 3 small forwards and one small/medium in ANB.  I'm not sure why we are persisting either.

We would be much better served with BBB as the big leading tall and Smith as the 3rd medium tall starting closer to  goal but leading to diff areas in cohesion with JVR.

That means one of ANB or Chandler out to fit BB.

ANB was an important cog here in 2021 being our No.1 rated tackler averaging 1.9 tackles a game.  Dropped away since to be ranked 7th with 0.7 tackles a game.

Chandler presently ranked 3rd behind Kozzy (2.1) & JVR (1.3) averaging 1.2

While no doubt a long way off his early form Chandler also has the higher goal average at 1.4 vs ANB 0.6 (pretty much his usual ave here).

Chandler also has a few more score involvements averaging 4.9 vs 4.1

Less turnovers 2.2 vs 3.1

More marks i50   1 vs 0.3

Seemingly cleaner with the ball running @ 79% vs 74% but a tad less involved averaging 9.7 effective disposals vs 11.6

ANB having a slight edge in One Percenters 1.4 vs 1 

And meters gained 282 vs 176 (although im guessing Chandler plays a bit deeper more of the time).

Buttom line i like the idea of Smith in for a trial run but shouldve been for one of Chandler or ANB for BB as well.  Probably the latter.

Smith will hopefully hit the scoreboard and provide some solid leads to more dangerous places and separate from the likes of Fritsch when he does.  His two big question marks for mine.... playing out a full 4 quarters and pressure inside 50 having laid zero tackles here in his minimal forays over recent times.  Maybe this was what the FD were looking for at Casey as much as his ability to score and he started clicking lately hence the call up.  Hope so as we can ill afford to be bringing less pressure inside 50.

Of note is that in season 2021 Viney was our third highest rated tackler inside 50 averaging 1.58 behind ANB 1.91 & Kozzy 1.65

Dropped right away to 15th now with only 0.5 a match.  Probably indicating he's playing a lot less time forward?  Although hitting the scoreboard a little more often this season averaging 0.5 vs 2021 0.3   Hard to know without looking at a heat map etc.

What i would like to see here though is bring Dunstan in as the 2nd specialist extractor to assist Viney.  Would allow Viney to rest forward more often, hopefully alowing him to help up the pressure for us inside 50 a little closer to 2021 levels.

Edited June 2, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[layzie 28,721]

If Smith takes 6 marks with 3 in the 50 then he's done his job.

A couple contested would he nice too.

[Red and Blue realist 2,026]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Silvagni has a surprisingly good record against us. I recall he kicked 3 against us recently when playing ruck/fwd.

Setterfield, Docherty also seem to play well against us,.

When Silvagni has kicked goals against us it's been when he's been a full time forward, I think last year was the first he rucked and he got one easy goal, but Max dominated him. Hopefully they'll drag him deep as much as possible when he's rucking. In fact I'd really love both Max and Grundy to play as close to 90% game time each as possible, I know Max normally does but Grundy's only been around the 70%, really stretch their ruck pairing. 

[FireInTheBennelly 4,024]

23 minutes ago, Deebauched said:

There's a few bars and pubs along Sukhumvit rd in the Nana district that show AFL. I dont go anymore too old to put up with pesky bar girls and bar stool bogans trying to explain to foreigners that aussie rules is not an Australian game but Irish. I rarely drink in public in Bangkok.  Listen live on SEN on the iphone. Plenty of footy replays post game online.

Have you considered an international membership? It includes access to the watchafl app/site so you can watch live and replays on demand. Goes well.

[FireInTheBennelly 4,024]

1 hour ago, McQueen said:

I’m almost certain you had other images in mind. 

I can assure you, no camels were harmed in the taking of this photograph

[forever demons 1,814]

1 hour ago, SPC said:

I am normally pretty level with emotions and perspective, but have probably had more ups and downs the last few weeks. My view is that we are slow to address areas of concern and back our system- when I think we should be adapting to trends that are unfolding in the game..

All that aside, I am going to try and put my positive hat on.. 

Dees to win tonight, start to build form and upset the Pies next week. Joel Smith to finally get his body right and build a block of form over 6 weeks to prove he belongs. Back talls to click and again establish themselves as the best defensive unit in the comp. 
Hopefully positivity brings positive results!!

Good post from a can of fruit

[picket fence 15,137]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Silvagni has a surprisingly good record against us. I recall he kicked 3 against us recently when playing ruck/fwd.

Setterfield, Docherty also seem to play well against us,.

Silvagni is slower than his old man and even slower than his Grandfather when he played!

[Demonsterative 1,914]

32 minutes ago, layzie said:

I've thought about it, he's playing some very good footy in the VFL. 

Just had a read up on his bio. Strong tall-ish inside midfielder with good burst speed. Question Mask on his kicking.. he could be an upgrade on Harmes and JJ who look gawn at the end of year. 

[spirit of norm smith 12,904]

If we lose this, there’s going to be a MASSIVE spotlight on us.  After 2021, Demons dynasty was being proclaimed.  Now we’d be lucky to make the 8 if we lose tonight.  Form is a volatile mistress !!! 

[DubDee 20,575]

i’m up in Shep for reasons that escape me

on my 3rd pot at the local establishment. quaddies have been put on and dumb footy bets are on. 

when’s the bounce???