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The Run Home



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3 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Can you explain the reasoning around 43% for Brisbane? Merely home ground advantage?

*edit - I'm sure there are an amalgam of data that make it - it seems a little 'off' after Thursday.

Yes indeed, it does seem a little off! Melbourne's rating is currently 5 points higher than Brisbane but the home ground advantage is +11 points to Brisbane (rightly or wrongly). The model doesn't put too much weight on a single match result, just like it doesn't weight Melbourne's three losses too heavily.

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If we play each game from here like we did on Thursday we're a more than reasonable chance of running the table. We were that good.

But it's near-certain we won't reach that level for two consecutive months. We'll have drop offs. And because our fixture is so hard, we're going to drop games as a result.

Prognosticating over the make-up of the top 8, top 4 and top 2 is fun, but so hard this year because the outcome will be determined by the sides we drop games to. If we go 6-2 but drop, for example, the Geelong and Brisbane games, that might see either of those sides sit above us on the ladder by the end of the season, but see us above Fremantle and Carlton. And vice versa if we go 6-2 but drop the Fremantle and Carlton games instead.

With our fixture, at least we know our destiny is largely in our hands. Beat the sides around us and we go along way, if not the entire way, to finishing above them on the ladder.

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16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If we play each game from here like we did on Thursday we're a more than reasonable chance of running the table. We were that good.

But it's near-certain we won't reach that level for two consecutive months. We'll have drop offs. And because our fixture is so hard, we're going to drop games as a result.

Prognosticating over the make-up of the top 8, top 4 and top 2 is fun, but so hard this year because the outcome will be determined by the sides we drop games to. If we go 6-2 but drop, for example, the Geelong and Brisbane games, that might see either of those sides sit above us on the ladder by the end of the season, but see us above Fremantle and Carlton. And vice versa if we go 6-2 but drop the Fremantle and Carlton games instead.

With our fixture, at least we know our destiny is largely in our hands. Beat the sides around us and we go along way, if not the entire way, to finishing above them on the ladder.

The other teams will drop games as well ,so there is no rhyme or reason to your thoughts .Anyway i dont think we will drop a game,Viney set a new level for the rest of the players to follow on thursday

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I think we need at least one scalp out of Geelong and Freo. Throw Carlton in there and I'd say 2 out if 3 is bare minimum requirement.

Sort of seeing it like a mini season up until the last game against Bris. Ideally you don't want it coming down to this one and it would be nice to rest a couple if needed. 

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5 hours ago, old dee said:

Not sure what all the discussion is about.

We will win them all! 

 

4 hours ago, old dee said:

I don't care we have them all covered.

🤔 Hmmm…suspiciously positive posts. 


OK, who ARE you, and what have you done with Old Dee?!

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I figure this thread is as good a place for this and the others covering the following.

Ideal run home 

  1. Win next three
  2. Jackson announces a 5 year deal with Demons, "loves playing with the boys!"
  3. Win next two
  4. Brayshaw announces a 5 year deal with Demons, "Want to be part of a multiple Premiership era at this club, MY club!"
  5. Win next six.

Boom!

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3 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

I figure this thread is as good a place for this and the others covering the following.

Ideal run home 

  1. Win next three
  2. Jackson announces a 5 year deal with Demons, "loves playing with the boys!"
  3. Win next two
  4. Brayshaw announces a 5 year deal with Demons, "Want to be part of a multiple Premiership era at this club, MY club!"
  5. Win next six.

Boom!

Without being greedy an Oliver contract extension somewhere in there would be nice. 

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5 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

If we play each game from here like we did on Thursday we're a more than reasonable chance of running the table. We were that good.

But it's near-certain we won't reach that level for two consecutive months. We'll have drop offs. And because our fixture is so hard, we're going to drop games as a result.

Prognosticating over the make-up of the top 8, top 4 and top 2 is fun, but so hard this year because the outcome will be determined by the sides we drop games to. If we go 6-2 but drop, for example, the Geelong and Brisbane games, that might see either of those sides sit above us on the ladder by the end of the season, but see us above Fremantle and Carlton. And vice versa if we go 6-2 but drop the Fremantle and Carlton games instead.

With our fixture, at least we know our destiny is largely in our hands. Beat the sides around us and we go along way, if not the entire way, to finishing above them on the ladder.

Good explanation of the current and future outlook.

Sounds like 6-2 (17-5) on the run home will pretty much guarantee a top 2 spot.

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On 6/26/2022 at 9:59 AM, ManDee said:

Scott - We had the flu and covid and a tummy bug but we're not making excuses because we've been loading and Tom Stewart was missing and Selwood was scared of Viney and May is a bully and Max is too tall and I won't mention Oliver and Petracca are too good. The quarters are too long which isn't fair and we only got double the frees! I mean what are the AFL thinking, we are Geelong where is our new training facility and home ground advantage? It's a conspiracy! But no excuses from me.

I see Geelong are getting in early and planting the seed as to why they will have lost to MFC next week.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/won-t-stop-believing-beveridge-backing-bulldogs-on-hard-road-ahead-20220701-p5ay7z.html

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On 6/27/2022 at 4:22 PM, ANG13 said:

Without being greedy an Oliver contract extension somewhere in there would be nice. 

Change your name to Nostradamus please sir

Wasn't on any radar anywhere besides this post 

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If we play like we did last week then we will win every game coming home. Every team in the competition is terrified of a Viney and May led pressure game. I don’t think anyone can go with us when we are in that zone.

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35 minutes ago, Thehardtackler said:

If we play like we did last week then we will win every game coming home. Every team in the competition is terrified of a Viney and May led pressure game. I don’t think anyone can go with us when we are in that zone.

Too bloody right !!!!!

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Carlton and Sydney losses are good for our top 4 aspirations. Two games plus a lot of percentage clear of Carlton.

If we can go 4-3 from here we won't miss. Carlton won't go 7-0.

Our best is the best. The only question is: can we bring it 3 times in a row in September?

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4 minutes ago, old55 said:

We play 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th plus the Dogs and Port in the run home.

We’ll be battle hardened come finals. Great preparation for a tilt at back to back flags

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With the blues losing we are 2 games plus 27% ahead of 5th. Unless the wheels come off we are top 4. 

Now to secure top 2…

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I think top 4 is almost a lock for us as we are 2 games and 27%, effectively 3 games ahead of 5th as it isn't easy to shift % at this time of year.   

Lions and Freo are more likely to dropout of top 4.  But their top 4 chances were improved by the Blues and Swans losses.

With the wins to Ess, and Saints, Eagles wanting to be a top 8 'disruptor', Port and Bulldogs fighting for the eight, and the Giants finding their mojo, no team in the top 10 has an easy run home.   Given this 16 and %  could be enough for Top 2.  If so our chances of Top 2 are greatly enhanced with the lead we currently have.

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14 hours ago, old55 said:

We play 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th plus the Dogs and Port in the run home.

So we are playing all the teams below us on the ladder!

God help them!!

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14 minutes ago, old dee said:

As I said earlier in this thread we will win them all. 

Don't know what you have been drinking or smoking old dee but it must be a mighty fine tipple. 

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I am happy we have a tough run home. We get to play Finals Opponents as a run in to September. 
Selwyn will have the list as fit as he can, just like last year at the right time. 
The Club aimed at 15 wins before the Season (Top 4). We should exceed those expectations and be ready for another Serious Crack at 14

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