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The Run Home



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51 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Top 4 would obviously be great, but my concern is that two other likely top 4 contenders are Brisbane and Fremantle.
Finishing below those two would make the first and third weeks of the finals very, very tough.

 

 

But only if we lose in Week 1.  if we win, we go straight into prelim and the gam will be at our home ground.   The losing Week 1 teams lose their advantage for a prelim home game. And that transfers to the 2 winners of Top 4 teams in week1.

So the trick for Goody is just get a Week 1 win done.

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1 hour ago, Demon17 said:

But only if we lose in Week 1.  if we win, we go straight into prelim and the gam will be at our home ground.   The losing Week 1 teams lose their advantage for a prelim home game. And that transfers to the 2 winners of Top 4 teams in week1.

So the trick for Goody is just get a Week 1 win done.

Yes, but week one would be at the GABBA or Optus.  Finish top 2 and we can clean sweep at the MCG.

 

 

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11 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Yes, but week one would be at the GABBA or Optus.  Finish top 2 and we can clean sweep at the MCG.

Only if we win week 1.  Lose it and we could end up with an i/state Prelim.

I reckon we have a good chance of winning the forthcoming return games vs Freo and Lions.

Optus is our second fortress and we won't be missing 5 of our best next time (I hope). 

Gabba is 50/50 but our mauling of the Lions this week will cut deep scars and they have only a few months to recover.  Like the bulldogs after the GF mauling, I doubt the Lions will.

I've been very confident of top 4 all along.  I'm quietly confident of top 2.  If not I have no angst of playing those teams away.

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I'd like to finish top so we are guaranteed to be wearing our home guernsey throughout the finals. The main contenders predominantly wear dark colours like ourselves and I don't want us being told by the AFL that we have to wear our royal blue version, as much as I think it's ok as an away game option. 

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A not so small item of interest.

The other top 4 sides (Cats, Lions, Freo) play only 1 top 4 side for the rest of the season:  The Demons.

Win those and we go an extra game up on them.  Ditto if we beat Carlton (5th).

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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On 6/24/2022 at 1:08 PM, layzie said:

Not even thinking ahead right now it's still week to week for me. A great win but not out of the woods, need a solid effort against the Crows then go again. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

A not so small item of interest.

The other top 4 sides (Cats, Lions, Freo) play only 1 top 4 side for the rest of the season:  The Demons.

Win those and we go an extra game up on them.  Ditto if we beat Carlton. 

That’s the beauty and the beast of a difficult run home, it’s not only a chance to get form on good teams but a chance to take further ground on them. On the same token, losing to them had the same affect in the reverse. 

I feel like we need to have a similar mindset to last season and put aside the fact the we’re the hunted. We tick things off, fist thing we win 2-3 more we play finals for sure. 

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5 minutes ago, cookieboc said:

looking forward to playing Geelong. and beating them, looking forward to the Scott presser already

Scott - We had the flu and covid and a tummy bug but we're not making excuses because we've been loading and Tom Stewart was missing and Selwood was scared of Viney and May is a bully and Max is too tall and I won't mention Oliver and Petracca are too good. The quarters are too long which isn't fair and we only got double the frees! I mean what are the AFL thinking, we are Geelong where is our new training facility and home ground advantage? It's a conspiracy! But no excuses from me.

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On 6/24/2022 at 8:05 PM, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Yes, but week one would be at the GABBA or Optus.  Finish top 2 and we can clean sweep at the MCG.

 

 

Bizarrely I was barracking for the Blues to assist with your theory about interstate teams, and hoping it helps keep Freo out of spots 1 and 2.

Same with the Cats whenever they play any interstate team.

Dockers have the Tigers and Dogs in Melb so thats two games that may be helpful if the home teams can get it done, but Lions only have the Tiges in Melb and a fairly soft home draw , plus Dees in fnail home game for them.

With a bit of luck, and if Dees and cats keep winning, Just maybe Freo and Lions are 3 and 4 on the ladder after season.

 

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8 games left

Win four and we are 15 wins which normally gets you 4-6

Win 5 and we would be unlucky not to be top 4

Win 6 it's second or third

Win 7 and we should end on top

Going to be a wild ride

Wins against Adelaide and Geelong would be a great start and of course there's Port in the Red Centre

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1 minute ago, Diamond_Jim said:

8 games left

Win four and we are 15 wins which normally gets you 4-6

Win 5 and we would be unlucky not to be top 4

Win 6 it's second or third

Win 7 and we should end on top

Going to be a wild ride

Wins against Adelaide and Geelong would be a great start and of course there's Port in the Red Centre

4-0 run coming up 👌

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The Voldermorts of the AFL (Essendon) in 2000 (who were kissed on their bee's [censored] by the injury gods) didn't care who they were playing, they were just mentally scarring everyone. Our best would smash their best (would be a hell of a game). My point is we can mentally damage teams with our run home. There will be some media noise about something, Fugazi, but then we go bang bang bang (really want to see Max kick another 50 on the run in a final.)

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1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

8 games left

Win four and we are 15 wins which normally gets you 4-6

Win 5 and we would be unlucky not to be top 4

Win 6 it's second or third

Win 7 and we should end on top

Going to be a wild ride

Wins against Adelaide and Geelong would be a great start and of course there's Port in the Red Centre

Why are we stuck with this game at TIO? I thought the deal had now completed. We don’t need the cash anymore so can’t the AFL get another club in need of dollars up there instead. 

It’s incredibly taxing on the players and we lose the home ground advantage.

 

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6 minutes ago, CYB said:

Why are we stuck with this game at TIO? I thought the deal had now completed. We don’t need the cash anymore so can’t the AFL get another club in need of dollars up there instead. 

It’s incredibly taxing on the players and we lose the home ground advantage.

 

nah, pretty sure we're playing traegar park

playing in alice is not anything like as debilitating or taxing as it doesn't have the humidity of darwin

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12 minutes ago, CYB said:

Why are we stuck with this game at TIO? I thought the deal had now completed. We don’t need the cash anymore so can’t the AFL get another club in need of dollars up there instead. 

It’s incredibly taxing on the players and we lose the home ground advantage.

 

The games in Alice Springs and the maximum temperature could be as low as 15 degrees for mid July. Certainly won’t be more than the low 20’s and shouldn’t be taxing.

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38 minutes ago, CYB said:

Why are we stuck with this game at TIO? I thought the deal had now completed. We don’t need the cash anymore so can’t the AFL get another club in need of dollars up there instead. 

It’s incredibly taxing on the players and we lose the home ground advantage.

 

This side isn’t the case, Alice Springs is actually mild and no humidity. 

I don’t mind us having one game in Alice every year, we’ve played there enough now that we are more familiar with the ground than any club in the AFL. My only annoyance is playing Port Adelaide there means we will likely not have the crowd support. Would much rather we play one of the likes of GC, GWS or even a Victorian side. 

As for not needing the cash, we sadly kinda still do. Our crowd numbers haven’t been great, we aren’t completely out of the woods. It’s also actually good that we are connecting to First Nations communities. 

Edited by Pates
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A summary of The Run Home:

image.png.ce60b8c9fd7d26110b6b93753edeac99.png

My thoughts:

  • We have a harder fixture than all others playing teams 2 to 5 and teams 7 and 8.  '
  • We will make top 4 and a very good chance of top 2.  Beat Freo, Lions and Blues and we stifle their chances of top 2. 
  • Cats will be top 2 🤮 whether we beat them or not.  Want to beat them because of their smugness and lack of respect.
  • The team most likely to drop out of the top 4 is Freo. 
  • Lions don't look too safe in the top 4 given the way they played last week.
  • Ironically two teams that can make top 4 due to their easy run home are Carlton and Collingwood.  If they do, on my reckoning, top 4 first final will be in Melbourne.  Win or lose the first final, all our finals could be in Melbourne.
  • Tigers will replace Bulldogs in the final 8 because of their much easier draw. 
  • On the assumption of 15 wins for top 4 Tigers are unlikely to make top 4 🙃☺️.
  • 16 wins could be enough for top 2!!  %'age will then be significant.
Edited by Lucifers Hero
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Final Ladder per the Fox Footy predictor

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

  • 1. Melbourne (15.55 projected wins)
  • 2. Geelong Cats (15.1)
  • 3. Brisbane Lions (14.95)
  • 4. Fremantle (14.45)
  • 5. Carlton (14.25)
  • 6. Sydney Swans (14)
  • 7. Collingwood (13.15)
  • 8. Richmond (13)
  • 9. Western Bulldogs (12.2)

the-run-home-after-round-15-predicted-ladder

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5 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Final Ladder per the Fox Footy predictor

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

  • 1. Melbourne (15.55 projected wins)
  • 2. Geelong Cats (15.1)
  • 3. Brisbane Lions (14.95)
  • 4. Fremantle (14.45)
  • 5. Carlton (14.25)
  • 6. Sydney Swans (14)
  • 7. Collingwood (13.15)
  • 8. Richmond (13)
  • 9. Western Bulldogs (12.2)

the-run-home-after-round-15-predicted-ladder

Here's mine:

image.png.31e92a5b64f8f11d5f012ab1303441c5.png

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9 minutes ago, old dee said:

Not sure what all the discussion is about.

We will win them all! 

Its about who we will beat in the GF:cool:

(Send TIC so as not to tempt fate)

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21 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Notwithstanding @old dee's comment that we will win them all, here are each team's chances of winning each remaining match based on my model.

image.png.0bfd923be0905c79f95de14fa4d46171.png

Can you explain the reasoning around 43% for Brisbane? Merely home ground advantage?

*edit - I'm sure there are an amalgam of data that make it - it seems a little 'off' after Thursday.

Edited by Engorged Onion
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