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The Run Home



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25 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

The pre GF bye probably meant May plays on the day, keeps Naughton to naught and we win by 74 points... just saying. 

Yeah, excellent and lucky for us last year. May's importance has never shown through so much as the last 3-4 weeks.

However, happy for it to revert back to the pre finals bye for this year and beyond.

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On 6/20/2022 at 9:26 AM, Vipercrunch said:

I have no doubt if we prepare well now and aren't hit too hard by injuries, we can win from outside the top 4.  

Your'e right - we have the talent when fully fit and will have to this year. Many finalsist will fear a full dees list.  But......

I see Top 4 now out of reach  and making Top 8 will be touch and go.

Can only pencil 1 more win in, against the Crwos,  and maybe Port but that's not certainty either with them hitting their straps. Underdogs in the rest probably.

Tomorrow night will tell.

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FWIW, my latest simulations show that there's a ~71% chance of making the top 4 with 15 wins and a ~75% chance of making the top 8 with 13 wins, and would quite possibly be reliant on other teams' results (and percentage).

Hopefully we can get to 16+ wins to be safer.

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One of the plethora of ‘stats gurus’ out there has us finishing 7th:

Gawn missing, Lever injured, but Petracca, Oliver, Fritsch, Langdon, May, and Salem healthy; we should be able to compete against anyone. If we couldn’t win 4 games out of 9 to (most likely) finish top 4 - it is immeasurably harder to make a prelim and at risk of being a failed year. We should win at least 4… surely…

Seinfeld Whatever GIF by MOODMAN

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3 minutes ago, rpfc said:

One of the plethora of ‘stats gurus’ out there has us finishing 7th:

Gawn missing, Lever injured, but Petracca, Oliver, Fritsch, Langdon, May, and Salem healthy; we should be able to compete against anyone. If we couldn’t win 4 games out of 9 to (most likely) finish top 4 - it is immeasurably harder to make a prelim and at risk of being a failed year. We should win at least 4… surely…

Seinfeld Whatever GIF by MOODMAN

Is that chart saying the GF will be between Sydney and Freo and that Saints will finish above us?

Neither of those is going to happen! 

I have no doubt we will make top 4.

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5 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Is that chart saying the GF will be between Sydney and Freo and that Saints will finish above us?

Neither of those is going to happen! 

I have no doubt we will make top 4.

I just run a ladder predictor that had us winning against BL, Adel, PA, and Coll and had us finishing 7th with all 3 teams you mention above us… so 14 wins may not be enough for top 4…

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7 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Is that chart saying the GF will be between Sydney and Freo and that Saints will finish above us?

Neither of those is going to happen! 

I have no doubt we will make top 4.

@rpfc @Lucifers Hero yeah The FMI has a momentum factor in their model which is why Melbourne is expected to drop and Gold Coast is 4th favourite to make the grand final!

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2 minutes ago, rpfc said:

I just run a ladder predictor that had us winning against BL, Adel, PA, and Coll and had us finishing 7th with all 3 teams you mention above us… so 14 wins may not be enough for top 4…

But 15 will.  So many 8pt games to go for all teams some will fall away.  We need to win 5 of next 9.  Will be shocked if we don't.

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38 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

But 15 will.  So many 8pt games to go for all teams some will fall away.  We need to win 5 of next 9.  Will be shocked if we don't.

We simply have to beat Adel, PA, and Coll and then get two of the other 6.

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1 minute ago, rpfc said:

We simply have to beat Adel, PA, and Coll and then get two of the other 6.

Bulldogs and Carlton.

Bonus if we beat Lions once and Freo once.  8 pt wins vs them and top 2 is ours for the taking!!

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A worrying aspect for Brisbane is they have virtually zero depth, especially small/mid sized players.  Current injury list:

  • Darcy Gardiner, Lungs 4 weeks
  • Kai Lohmann, Ankle Test
  • Dayne Zorko, Hamstring Test
  • Zac Bailey, covid protocols

They brought in a debutant and two players who have had very few games in their AFL careers to replace Gardiner, Zorko and Bailey.

They will struggle, as players get injuries have form lapses to field a finals ready team.

What last night showed their list unbalanced ie is too tall with about 5-6 players >200 cms.

Would not have thought this a few days ago but they risk sliding out of the top 4.

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7 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

A worrying aspect for Brisbane is they have virtually zero depth, especially small/mid sized players.  Current injury list:

  • Darcy Gardiner, Lungs 4 weeks
  • Kai Lohmann, Ankle Test
  • Dayne Zorko, Hamstring Test
  • Zac Bailey, covid protocols

They brought in a debutant and two players who have had very few games in their AFL careers to replace Gardiner, Zorko and Bailey.

They will struggle, as players get injuries have form lapses to field a finals ready team.

What last night showed their list unbalanced ie is too tall with about 5-6 players >200 cms.

Would not have thought this a few days ago but they risk sliding out of the top 4.

One of my mates is a Lions man and If there was a "what are they saying in the Group Chat" thread we'd have the following;

On having Talls "Flip side is our complete lack of speed"

On opposition small forwards 'Def our weakness'

 

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1 minute ago, roy11 said:

One of my mates is a Lions man and If there was a "what are they saying in the Group Chat" thread we'd have the following;

On having Talls "Flip side is our complete lack of speed"

On opposition small forwards 'Def our weakness'

We exploited both last night bringing in a short player for a tall and tweaked the way we played.  Caught them by surprise. 

Their system and structures broke down early and they had no way of getting the momentum back. 

Can't see their depth to quickly overcome the list 'imbalance'.

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16 minutes ago, layzie said:

Not even thinking ahead right now it's still week to week for me. A great win but not out of the woods, need a solid effort against the Crows then go again. 

So wise

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Last night will send shivers down other teams. Brisvegas are a good side. , not great. But last night was a proper hit out. 
The Loading phase fascinates me, not so much the losing of 3 games but the method of those losses. 
It was a totally different side last night. It’s a shame we sacrifice QB now, but September is what is remembered 

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11 wins with 8 to go and our % is far better than anyone else.  unless we get hammered the % should act like another win

4 wins from the last 8 should be enough for top 4. need 5-6 to lock in top 2

Crows, Port, Dogs and Pies should be wins. away to our 3 biggest rivals will be tough, seems like we will need to beat the Blues also to make top 2

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7 minutes ago, Bystander said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but 3 or 4 is as good as top 2 if you are up against a Melbourne team.?

Correct, for the first final.

From there there are lots of permutations depending on who wins/loses that and other finals.  Essentially, finishing 1 or 2 makes it more likely to have a Home prelim.

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Top 4 would obviously be great, but my concern is that two other likely top 4 contenders are Brisbane and Fremantle.
Finishing below those two would make the first and third weeks of the finals very, very tough.

 

 

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The Croms beat us last year. They should be completely obliterated for that misdemeanour 

I hope the Boys are planning an excellent sojurn 

“Blitz ’em over there”

Edited by Sir Why You Little
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1 hour ago, Bystander said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but 3 or 4 is as good as top 2 if you are up against a Melbourne team.?

Yes - Sort of.

If Dees play a melb based team in week 1 and we lose , we have our next final in week 2 at our home ground MCG.

The downside is that there are crossovers in the finals draw so that no team plays each other twice, unless the second game is the GF.

Thus if Dees lose to a Melb team, that winner gets a MCG Prelim.

The Dees, if we win in Week 2, will have to play the winner of the other Week 1 top four final, and if that winner is interstate, then thats where the Dees Week 3 prelim will be. 

The fail safe key is what happened last year- win in Week 1 to Prelim and have that at home (usually except for Covid issues in 2021) and let the rest take care of itself.

really we need to be barracking for Blues as a top 4 chance , as well as us, to at least minmise the chance of an interstate prleim.

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