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PREGAME: Rd 05 vs St. Kilda

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Round Five
Melbourne v St Kilda
Easter Saturday, April 20, 4.35pm AEST
MCG
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MCC Reserve: 2.30pm

AFL Reserve: 3.00pm

Public gates: 3.00pm

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Members

As a home game, Members with home game access can scan their Membership to enter the ground.

General public.

Get your tickets now via Ticketek

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Public transport

Train

With major works occurring on the Cranbourne/Pakenham, Frankston and Sandringham lines, fans are encouraged to allow extra time to get to the ground on Saturday.

To plan your journey to the game and view disruptions, use the PTV Journey Planner.

Tram

Tram services run reguarly from the city along Wellington Parade (No. 48 and 75) and the Olympic Park precinct (No. 70).

Car parking

Limited car parking is available in Yarra Park:

  • Gate 3: 12.00pm
  • Gate 5: 2.00pm
  • Gate 6: 1.00pm
  • Gate 7: 9.00am

For the latest parking information, please visit the MCG website 

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TV times

All broadcast info in local times.

Melbourne: Fox Footy - 4.30pm
Sydney: Fox Footy - 4.30pm 
Brisbane: Fox Footy - 4.30pm
Adelaide: Fox Footy - 4.00pm
Perth: Fox Footy - 2.30pm
Tasmania: Fox Footy - 4.30pm
Canberra: Fox Footy - 4.30pm
Darwin: Fox Footy - 4.00pm

For all other regions and radio info, refer to the AFL Broadcast Guide.

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Mobile app

Live scores, stats and match highlights are available at the tap of a finger in the club's mobile app.

Download it for iOS or Android.

Social media

Match hashtag: #AFLDeesSaints

Follow the club on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for live match coverage and a behind-the-scenes insight into match day.

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Curtain-raiser: Casey Demons v AFL Academy

The Casey Demons will feature in an exhibition match pre-game from 11.00am against the AFL Academy, which will consist of the top talent in this year's draft pool.

Entry to this match is free, however spectators will need to leave the ground post-game and re-enter when gates open for the Melbourne v St Kilda clash.

Gates open: 10.30am - entry only via Gate 3

Seating: Selected sections of the Olympic Stand.

 

 

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Looking forward to this game. This will show us up for being contenders or pretenders. Billings and Gresham have been on fire so we have to stop them. Steven always kills us so if he plays we have to look into him too. We should win but I thought the same against Port and Essendon so who knows?

Should be a tight tussle the dees by 20

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14 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

Looking forward to this game. This will show us up for being contenders or pretenders. Billings and Gresham have been on fire so we have to stop them. Steven always kills us so if he plays we have to look into him too. We should win but I thought the same against Port and Essendon so who knows?

Should be a tight tussle the dees by 20

Absolutely agree. This game will show where we are at this year. Are we contenders or pretenders?

Will also show whether we can play the wide open spaces of the MCG.

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Don't know why we are such clear favourites. We've played maybe 2.5 good quarters all year whereas Saints have played consistent without setting the world on fire. Should be a close game. Could go either way imo.

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3 minutes ago, praha said:

Don't know why we are such clear favourites. 

We shouldn't be favourites at all. 

What have we done this year to deserve favoritism? Sometimes I can't work out how the bookies set the odds.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We shouldn't be favourites at all. 

What have we done this year to deserve favoritism? Sometimes I can't work out how the bookies set the odds.

They don't. The algorithm they use sets the odds based on the flow of money. In simple terms, if the bookies have us at shorter odds than St Kilda it's because they are holding more money backing Melbourne to win. In other words, the punters indirectly set the odds.

But your point remains...why do the punters have us as favourites?

Edited by La Dee-vina Comedia
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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We shouldn't be favourites at all. 

What have we done this year to deserve favoritism? Sometimes I can't work out how the bookies set the odds.

It's the weight of money.

Edit:- What LDVC said

 

Edited by ManDee

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This game has arrived at just the right time to continue to build into the season. A less fancied opponent that has exceeded expectation going into the season and, given their outs, is basically playing to their potential.

Conversely we have a fair bit of room for improvement, and if we can make another stride forward on the back of last week it will be a nice confidence boosting win.

These ones are often nailbiters. Hopefully not the case this week. We should win and win well.

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Not confident at all. I reckon they might run rings around us. 

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Sad to say I never go to a game at MCG with any confidence.  Peter Jackson used the word hope many times,  I want more than hope after 55 years.  The point is we have not achieved anything until we prove otherwise.  If we do not make finals this year, there is two areas....fitness and recruiting!  

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1 hour ago, ManDee said:

It's the weight of money.

Edit:- What LDVC said

 

So it is the vibe !!! 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

So it is the vibe !!! 

So LDVC is Dennis Denuto?

Image result for Dennis deNuto gif

Edited by ManDee
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1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

They don't. The algorithm they use sets the odds based on the flow of money. In simple terms, if the bookies have us at shorter odds than St Kilda it's because they are holding more money backing Melbourne to win. In other words, the punters indirectly set the odds.

But your point remains...why do the punters have us as favourites?

True. Sort off.

The bookies set the initial price. this is tru of all betting markets.

The punters then impact that price up or down depending on the money they punt.

The bookies had as  favorites asin thier considered assesmsnt (based on not wanting to lose money) they think we will win.

 

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10 minutes ago, binman said:

True. Sort off.

The bookies set the initial price. this is tru of all betting markets.

The punters then impact that price up or down depending on the money they punt.

The bookies had as  favorites asin thier considered assesmsnt (based on not wanting to lose money) they think we will win.

 

How do you know that? They could be holding all sorts of bets. The first bet could have been $1mil on Melbourne to win, if the first bet was $1mil on StKilda to win they would have been favorites.  

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I had it in my head that game was at Docklands so lucky I stopped by.

Saints are running and carrying more consistently than we are. Selection will be interesting.

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Posted (edited)
Melbourne VIC
Saturday 4:00 pm
Partly CloudyPartly Cloudy 28
Is the above cause for concern given we're far from the fittest side going around?
Edited by Bring-Back-Powell

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Posted (edited)

The moral of the story is, odds are not probabilities. They do not represent likelihood of winning, they represent bookies covering their behinds.

Edited by Mazer Rackham
  • Like 2

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Saints have two days less inbeteeen games. 

They have as many injuries than us arguable have been hit harder

hopefullyour form has turned and if so we should win this comfortably

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

They don't. The algorithm they use sets the odds based on the flow of money. In simple terms, if the bookies have us at shorter odds than St Kilda it's because they are holding more money backing Melbourne to win. In other words, the punters indirectly set the odds.

But your point remains...why do the punters have us as favourites?

Upside...  and optimistic view to an investment.   Without care,  for Us.

 

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

Saints have two days less inbeteeen games. 

We have had too many games to recover,  which in turn is a mental disruption to our schedule.

This has been shown to cause upsets in the past.

Edited by DV8

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2 hours ago, Mazer Rackham said:

The moral of the story is, odds are not probabilities. They do not represent likelihood of winning, they represent bookies covering their behinds.

Is there any commonality between when bookies covering their behinds,  and us playing conservatively and losing.

Just wondering if they occur simultaneously ?  We don't seem to go so well when we're favourites.

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I put a bet on Saints when the odds were $3.32. Now about $2.90. Those odds (particularly $3.32) were/are ridiculous. 

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8 hours ago, ManDee said:

How do you know that? They could be holding all sorts of bets. The first bet could have been $1mil on Melbourne to win, if the first bet was $1mil on StKilda to win they would have been favorites.  

How do i know that? Because that is how book makers operate. And I have been punter all my adult life (and a chunk of my non adult life).  They set a market. The punter with your million responds to that market. If the bet is on the mfc they become even shorter than the bookies opened them. If on the saints their odds shorten.

How else could it operate?

As an example barely a cent will have been bet on the tigers dees game. No serious punters would punt on tbat game. Way too many variables at this stage, not least injury, weather and how both teams perform this round.

The bookies have Tigers as favorite at this stage. We are unlikely to start favorites but if we play well this round and the tigers don't punters will back us and our price will shorten.

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