Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Dr. Gonzo 22,415]

1 hour ago, Demons11 said:

You have to remember the actual picks that were given up for those players.

Lever was approximately pick 7 when looking at the points value and Gibbs was early teens I think.

This picks "value" stuff is rubbish. It only counts for clubs bidding on academy or Father/Son picks.

It's the equivalent of saying "Bugg + JKH + Kent = 1st rounder"

[Jibroni 4,057]

13 minutes ago, rpfc said:

You have the same avatar as Chook in Perth and it misled me and my emotions just then...

Didn't know that. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,415]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Trust your judgement Gonzo so things might have improved somewhat although ... I believe a bigger sample size at least 5 years on is more applicable.

I started a thread in late 2014 outlining and highlighting 10 drafts and concentrating on the top 5 picks ... 10 Years of Drafting (2000 - 2009)

Within that link exposed a number of myths and some absolute truth's as well.  My summation is that unless the recruiters are generally incompetent right across the board,  there has to be a system problem.  We need to look further than our own club too.  A macro view is required.

Appreciate your research though and it is food for thought. 

I want way overs for Hogan as I absolutely rate the bloke ... he's had rotten run with injuries and family tragedies but at some stage that time will pass and he'll be fit,  firing and ready to go.

I don't disagree with you mate but it seems clubs have got a bit more serious in recent times. When Wallace was coach at the Tigers they didn't even have a full time recruiting manager. There's been more investment and with that a greater strike rate in recent years. Not a guarantee but it seems a greater probability of hitting on a best 22 player. Not everyone is gonna land a Judd or Dangerfield but there are plenty of good players taken too 10/15 in the last few years.

I remember your thread and appreciate the time taken to go through that. Might be time to update it and see where things sit 4-5 years on.

[Moonshadow 16,199]

38 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Whether he does/doesn't is irrelevant. It was a talking point across the media, including radio and TV. You only had to watch the live broadcasts for it to come up, and you'd have to live in a cave with no exposure to ANY footy to have not heard/seen this floated, especially after Weideman's performance against Geelong.

Sure, but I responded to your post which claimed:

 "All those “Dees better without Hogan” articles and posts couldn’t have helped his frame of mind re staying. 

So now you're referring to TV.  Not sure Hogan watched the Geelong game on TV if he was there in the box next to Lever. I think he'd be nothing but wrapped for Weid.

If Hogan pays no attention to AFL media, which is not uncommon (and also healthy) for players, it would have zero impact on his frame of mind re staying.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Moonshadow

[McQueen 17,863]

1 hour ago, Wiseblood said:

I'm going out on a limb with this one, but from what I've seen, there isn't a whole lot of top end talent from WA in this years draft.  I know that doesn't make a huge difference, but there is a reason clubs like Port and Adelaide are keen to move up the draft to nab players from their home state.  

If there isn't much on offer from WA this year, but the crop is stronger next season (pure speculation as I have no idea), then they may be more inclined to pass on two picks from this season and hold on to next years instead.

The fact they drafted Brayshaw and Cerra means I could be totally wrong, although we already know that Cerra took a while to re-sign and could be a flight risk in the future, so they may look to try and get talent from their home state a little more in the coming seasons.

What’s Tim Kelly worth now?

If I was Freo, I’d be looking at acquiring both Hogan and Kelly - particularly if Neale is outta there. 

If they snag Kelly then you would absolutely be fine with missing this years draft crop. 

[Macca 16,173]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I don't disagree with you mate but it seems clubs have got a bit more serious in recent times. When Wallace was coach at the Tigers they didn't even have a full time recruiting manager. There's been more investment and with that a greater strike rate in recent years. Not a guarantee but it seems a greater probability of hitting on a best 22 player. Not everyone is gonna land a Judd or Dangerfield but there are plenty of good players taken too 10/15 in the last few years.

I remember your thread and appreciate the time taken to go through that. Might be time to update it and see where things sit 4-5 years on.

Fair enough Gonzo although I believe that many equate a top 5 pick as a top player (A grade or at least B+) and if that doesn't eventuate they will blame the recruiter,  the club and then the player himself.  And then bang on about who should have been picked instead.

It has to be remembered that these high school age kids are not the finished product by any means and that many of these prospects never progress much past their last junior year (Morton,  Toumpas,  Cook,  Gysberts etc)

So therefore,  the draft and the draft picks attached is a flawed concept in at least some respects. True value?  A matter of opinion but I have outlined my reasoning in previous posts.

Busts happen and they happen a lot ... you can get on a good run,  a bad run,  a middling or indifferent run.  We have seen our fair share of busts so hopefully we continue the good run that we're having of late (Brayshaw,  Petracca,  Salem,  Oliver et al) 

And there's now a real chance that we could be a major player at the top end of the draft again.  Who would have thought?

Edited September 27, 2018 by Macca

[Demons11 6,404]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

This picks "value" stuff is rubbish. It only counts for clubs bidding on academy or Father/Son picks.

It's the equivalent of saying "Bugg + JKH + Kent = 1st rounder"

It gives you a starting point. 

People are saying 2 first rd picks.  So you would be happy to 13 and 18? 

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

1 hour ago, Dappa Dan said:

Welcome to posting...

I have to take exception to this. No-one's using fawning epithets when they describe him like that. And just so you know, when the news broke, it was a mate of mine who's a one-eyed Tigers supporter who I first heard talk of Jesse as a generational talent. So it's not just the one-eyed demons supporters.

Furthermore, a cold clear analysis of Hogan's output has, for a couple of years now, shown not only is he on the level of those guys, but he actually did more than them at a similar age. We all saw the articles written early in his career pointing this out. We've even seen Riewoldt-like articles written this year.

I'm not telling you you can't look down on Hogan, we all have our ways of looking at footy differently. But you should preface it by claiming it as your opinion. And I'd point out that you're in the minority.

The larger football world absolutely has him as the best KPF under 25 (unless you're a Blues supporter). He's not the best going around right now, certainly. But that's a reflection of his age and experience. He still needs more than a season to crack 100 games. And of the superstars running around right now, he has most of them beaten at a similar age. He doesn't have much more to do to be described accurately as a generational talent. If he went to Freo, he'd be their next Pavlich. Doesn't get a whole lot better than that. 

I thought someone might take exception to the “generational player” and fawning epithets comment. Fair enough, you are entitled to that view and make a reasonable argument. However I would dispute your assertion that “the larger football world would have have him as the best KPF under 25.” I think if you put Hogan up against Charlie Curnow and Joe Daniher many would have him third picked in that group. Many wouldn’t sure, but no way is it a clear cut thing.

The knock on Jesse at this stage (and I think it’s a fair one) is that he’s shown a propensity so far to beat up on weaker teams and go missing a bit in the bigger games. This is something a casual look at his goals to games ratio doesn’t show up unless you take a closer look at the statistics. 

Im not saying he isn’t a very good player. He is. But a certainty to be a Carey-esque superstar? A “generational player”? Sorry but that’s a big stretch based on the body of work I’ve seen. Plenty of potential absolutely but more than a few rough edges remain that need ironing out. 

Edited September 27, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[Pates 9,537]

11 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

I thought someone might take exception to the “generational player” and fawning epithets comment. Fair enough, you are entitled to that view and make a good argument. However I would dispute your assertion that “the larger football world would have have him as the best KPF under 25.” I think if you put Hogan up against Charlie Curnow and Joe Daniher many would have him third picked in that group. Many wouldn’t sure, but no way is it a clear cut thing.

The knock on Jesse at this stage (and I think it’s a fair one) is that he’s shown a propensity so far to beat up on weaker teams and go missing a bit in the bigger games. This is something a casual look at his goals to games ratio doesn’t show up unless you take a closer look at the statistics. 

Im not saying he isn’t a very good player. He is. But a certainty to be a Carey-esque superstar? A “generational player”? Sorry but that’s a big stretch based on the body of work I’ve seen. Plenty of potential but still more than a few rough edges need ironing out.

I get where you’re coming from, but his raw data is tracking him becoming an elite forward of the competition. They don’t grow on trees so we are well placed and well within our rights to ask for anything and everything, as another poster said if this trade does take place (I’m still optimistic on the other side of the coin) our first requests for picks should be so high that it shocks Fremantle. 

Two high first round picks plus perhaps an exchange of other picks/players. Stay strong with them and make them work to satisfy US. 

Edited September 27, 2018 by Pates

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

6 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

I think if you put Hogan up against Charlie Curnow and Joe Daniher many would have him third picked in that group. Many wouldn’t sure, but no way is it a clear cut thing.

The knock on Jesse at this stage (and I think it’s a fair one) is that he’s shown a propensity so far to beat up on weaker teams and go missing a bit in the bigger games. This is something a casual look at his goals to games ratio doesn’t show up unless you take a closer look at the statistics. 

Im not saying he isn’t a very good player. He is. But a certainty to be a Carey-esque superstar? A “generational player”? Sorry but that’s a big stretch based on the body of work I’ve seen. Plenty of potential but still more than a few rough edges need ironing out.

- The greater football public, I think if we genuinely ran a poll, would have Curnow ahead based purely on his pack marking. And would take Daniher as he's just so damn big. Jesse is FAR more accurate. 150+ goals in 70 games vs Daniher's 180 in 100 games. Just for giggles let's throw in Curnow... 59 goals form 47 games. Hogan has essentially played one more seasons worth of games and kicked almost 100 more goals then him. You could (and should) argue that Hogan has better delivery, but we were a bad side when he played his first 50 games. In any case,  I don't think the GP would put them ahead of Hogan since they're usually a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately crowd... In any case statistically he's well ahead.

- Yeah that's a fair knock. But also a fair knock on just about every forward who's ever played. They feast against poor sides, and don't play as well against good ones. You can't argue with his goals-per-game average, and the fact he's been consistent from the beginning. Any time you're up the front of a Coleman, regardless of oppo, you deserve the adulation... Guys like Fev should be respected more because of this.

- OK now you're putting words in my mouth. I never said he was "a certainty to be a Carey-esque superstar." Carey's on his own. But within any 5 year period you always have 3-5 big-time forwards who carve it up. The Brown/Riewoldt period was a classic. Hogan is that level of player. Not only that but I think he's in a mini-golden age. There's SO many great KP forwards around right now. And yeah, as I said earlier, he's a sub-25 year old KPF. There's a reason Nicky Dal's top-10 list he did a few days ago was ridiculous. Right now you have to say Riewoldt's the best KP forward in the game. Just won the Coleman... But he turns 30 in a month. If in some parallel universe he was to be traded, he wouldn't get anywhere near what Jesse would in a trade as trades are all about future. That, I think, is what you're overlooking. In a straight up trade for 2019 production... yes... most top tier players are worth a first and change. But when you're in your early 20s in a difficult to find/difficult to train/difficult to draft position like what Jesse plays, you start seeing 2+ first rounders. You just can't argue he's only worth a first and second when Lever went for two firsts. Gibbs too. That's insanity. The market rate for what Jesse is has to be CONSIDERABLY more than what Gibbs got. Gibbs will only likely play 3-4 more seasons. Jesse has 8, maybe 10 more. 2 firsts is unders.

Good stuff though. Love the back and forth.

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

29 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

Good stuff though. Love the back and forth.

Agreed. And in reality we’re not that far off each other. With Freo under the pump two early-ish first rounders is a very achievable price to demand. 

What are they going to do? Go in again with McCarthy, Sheridan and Taberner? Say hello to the bottom four Ross. Lock it in.

We’ve got our foot on their throat on this one and they know it.

Edited September 27, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[old55 21,340]

3 hours ago, Redleg said:

There was talk of Freo swapping pick 4 if Neale is traded, or 5 for picks 9 and 10, I think with Port.

If we trade Jesse for say 4 and 5 why cant we do that trade. We then would have 5 , 9 and 10. We could use 10 in a trade and have 5 and 9 in the draft to take top end talent.

You could then end up with 3 players for Jesse.

That's not the deal Red. 9 + 10 = 2864 while 4 = 2034.  The actual deal is 9 + 10 for 4 + 22 = 2879, the 4 + 22 coming from Brisbane for Neale. So it's not helpful.

I think a fair deal for Hogan is 5 + 10, it's in between the partisan ambit claims.

With Port, Brisbane and GC involved the fair net deals for MFC and Freo could be:

Freo: Hogan + 9 for Neale + 5

MFC: 5 + May for Hogan

I'd be even happier if it was Andrew Brayshaw instead of 5 in that equation.

Other clubs net are:

Port: 4 + 22 for 9 + 10

Brisbane: Neale for 4 + 22

GC: 10 for May

Edited September 27, 2018 by Fifty-5

[trout 385]

Now I know most people don’t rate the majority of Journalists and Jon Ralph is probably high on that list but for what it’s worth he said on radio tonight that there is a 1% chance Hogan is at the Dees in 2019. 

[phuket demon 76]

8 minutes ago, trout said:

Now I know most people don’t rate the majority of Journalists and Jon Ralph is probably high on that list but for what it’s worth he said on radio tonight that there is a 1% chance Hogan is at the Dees in 2019. 

 

2 hours ago, Dappa Dan said:

Welcome to posting...

I have to take exception to this. No-one's using fawning epithets when they describe him like that. And just so you know, when the news broke, it was a mate of mine who's a one-eyed Tigers supporter who I first heard talk of Jesse as a generational talent. So it's not just the one-eyed demons supporters.

Furthermore, a cold clear analysis of Hogan's output has, for a couple of years now, shown not only is he on the level of those guys, but he actually did more than them at a similar age. We all saw the articles written early in his career pointing this out. We've even seen Riewoldt-like articles written this year.

I'm not telling you you can't look down on Hogan, we all have our ways of looking at footy differently. But you should preface it by claiming it as your opinion. And I'd point out that you're in the minority.

The larger football world absolutely has him as the best KPF under 25 (unless you're a Blues supporter). He's not the best going around right now, certainly. But that's a reflection of his age and experience. He still needs more than a season to crack 100 games. And of the superstars running around right now, he has most of them beaten at a similar age. He doesn't have much more to do to be described accurately as a generational talent. If he went to Freo, he'd be their next Pavlich. Doesn't get a whole lot better than that. 

Ummm this is a 23 Yr old Jesse [censored] hogan. Brayshaw and pick 5 minimum. In our position 4 years ago we would have done that. Why is no one rating him??? I just don't get it. 

[SFebes 4,692]

13 minutes ago, trout said:

Now I know most people don’t rate the majority of Journalists and Jon Ralph is probably high on that list but for what it’s worth he said on radio tonight that there is a 1% chance Hogan is at the Dees in 2019. 

https://goo.gl/images/phvnvF

[monoccular 16,072]

18 hours ago, praha said:

My thoughts after some reflection:

He was adament to stay and be part of something great.

Getting injured and missing finals has changed his perspective.

A young kid has seen his colleagues succeed without him. It can be demoralizing and can impact your own self worth. It happens to all of us. I am not the least bit surprised by this if it's all true.

This stands as an important test for this regime. Scully felt he didn't belong. Then money weighed in. I don't think money is as big an allure for Hogan: he is getting the coin whether he stays or goes.

The test for the club is to highlight to Hogan how important he is. To sit on the sidelines after being through so much, and to miss the excitement of finals...that must have really affected him. We need some perspective here.

It is not about playing hardball. Or rejecting his request. It is about ensuring Hogan is mentally able to understand how important he is. We know he is a strong kid after what he has been through. But I feel his missing finals was kind of the cherry on top of a horrid 24 months. That he still kicked 80+ goals in that period is truly amazing.

Club and fans need to get around him and let him know how important he is. Tell him on instagram. Don't be all "woe is me, please don't leave Hoges!" Give him support and tell him he's a star. These kids are so aggressively scrutinise in the social media era. We need to turn it around and make him one of us.

We can't lose this kid.

praha - well stated.

But actually we know bugger all at this stage.

8 hours ago, DubDee said:

I agree, I don't think many want to trade him but it seems he wants to go back to WA so we are dealing with this potential reality

and MUST get the absolute most out of it

7 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Everyone needs to chill. He hasn't met with the club yet.

It's all clickbait at this point

Fact, or speculation?

[MurDoc516 1,304]

did chook not say he's gone but the club wants a lot in return? or did i dream it. I need to stop dreaming about 18 year olds

Edited September 27, 2018 by MurDoc516

[Pates 9,537]

19 minutes ago, trout said:

Now I know most people don’t rate the majority of Journalists and Jon Ralph is probably high on that list but for what it’s worth he said on radio tonight that there is a 1% chance Hogan is at the Dees in 2019. 

Lol very strange percentage for him to quote but there ya go. 

[trout 385]

7 minutes ago, SFebes said:

https://goo.gl/images/phvnvF

Very good, I am hanging on to that 1%

[Jaded No More 57,919]

20 hours ago, Chook in Perth said:

Freo have been kicking these tyres for 5 years. there's a loot coming back. dunno what it is yet.

I'll come back when I know something 

For anyone who hasn’t posted here long, this is the only poster on Demonland with a 100% strike rate and credibility. Take everything else with a big grain of salt. 

Keep us posted Chook. 

[Deemania since 56 6,141]

6 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

 

Come on, Hogan's not gonna walk out on us to the draft and leave us empty handed. People bring this up every year and it never happens.

Lots of speculation, so let's look at the man. He has character, poise and has overcome some very great hurdles in his MFC history. He is a very valuable player and to date, his loyalty to the MFC has been wonderful. Other teams scramble to over-man up on him, week in, week out. This is a primary measure of his talent, skills, capability onfield and his potential impact. In return, he is quiet, reserved, almost enigmatic. His qualities extend beyond his years in his carriage and in his onfield demeanour and promise. For the MFC, he is a SUPER asset. The Freo bids and interests are not new; obviously, he holds these in abeyance with a deft hand - it is not the dollars, it is his commitment and loyalty to the MFC that drives him. It is his regard for his team and his teammates. If we value him, why do we allow this surreptitious reflection on his MFC career and its duration every time that he demonstrates adversity, success and above all, quietude in his loyalty? Jesse will not be going anywhere - Jesse is what the MFC continue to need and it is hoped that injury, form, speculation and disquiet will not prevent that from occurring. 

[jumbo returns 6,488]

18 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Lots of speculation, so let's look at the man. He has character, poise and has overcome some very great hurdles in his MFC history. He is a very valuable player and to date, his loyalty to the MFC has been wonderful. Other teams scramble to over-man up on him, week in, week out. This is a primary measure of his talent, skills, capability onfield and his potential impact. In return, he is quiet, reserved, almost enigmatic. His qualities extend beyond his years in his carriage and in his onfield demeanour and promise. For the MFC, he is a SUPER asset. The Freo bids and interests are not new; obviously, he holds these in abeyance with a deft hand - it is not the dollars, it is his commitment and loyalty to the MFC that drives him. It is his regard for his team and his teammates. If we value him, why do we allow this surreptitious reflection on his MFC career and its duration every time that he demonstrates adversity, success and above all, quietude in his loyalty? Jesse will not be going anywhere - Jesse is what the MFC continue to need and it is hoped that injury, form, speculation and disquiet will not prevent that from occurring. 

Shame I can only hit 'like' once - thank you, beautifully articulated

[Demonsone 1,600]

Why hasn't the club come out with any statement either way???

 

[Pates 9,537]

7 minutes ago, Hogan2014 said:

Why hasn't the club come out with any statement either way???

 

Because it’s on the table and Jesse and his management are considering it as well. That’s where this story has traction, if there was nothing in it then both player/management and club would’ve quashed the rumours by now. The silence indicates at the very least it’s a real chance, Mr Ralph seems to think it’s a forgone conclusion that he’s played his last game in Red and Blue. 

No news in this case (for me at least) is not good news. 

[Demonsone 1,600]

20 minutes ago, Pates said:

Because it’s on the table and Jesse and his management are considering it as well. That’s where this story has traction, if there was nothing in it then both player/management and club would’ve quashed the rumours by now. The silence indicates at the very least it’s a real chance, Mr Ralph seems to think it’s a forgone conclusion that he’s played his last game in Red and Blue. 

No news in this case (for me at least) is not good news. 

 

Whats driving all this as only a few weeks ago Goody was stating how Hogan is very Happy etc.....