Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Red and Blue realist 2,026]

10 minutes ago, willmoy said:

Do you think that's why the Tigers bowed out when they found out who was coming onboard from GC and for how much?

They've known for most of the year and only lost 4 regular season games. I would say Lynch coming in had absolutely no impact on their prelim. Gaff might be going from WC and they toweled us up. 

[jnrmac 18,914]

1 hour ago, SFebes said:

Agree mate, if we can get 5 & 6 out of this buckle up!

Lachie Weller was 2 first rd picks. He is a cut above Weller.

 

[Redleg 37,474]

5 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Lachie Weller was 2 first rd picks. He is a cut above Weller.

 

I think Weller was just pick 2. A mile overpriced at that.

" Eventually, the Suns went further than they wished, coughing up pick no 2 and the rights to the second best kid in the country. "

Edited September 27, 2018 by Redleg

[jnrmac 18,914]

2 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I think Weller was just pick 2. A mile overpriced at that.

Yes you are correct..

[bing181 8,149]

59 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

You honestly think he reads Demonland or media/social media at all, especially at trade time? I am confident that players are told not to look at footy forums and to keep their social media accounts closed.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/melbourne/melbourne-could-be-better-without-forward-jesse-hogan-writes-jay-clark/news-story/41e7737a13a48695165036394665883d

[Demons11 6,404]

44 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Ridiculous.

You value him less than Lever, Gibbs at 29 and Wingard. First two were 2 first rounders and Wingard is being placed in the same category, a hot and cold flanker.

You have to remember the actual picks that were given up for those players.

Lever was approximately pick 7 when looking at the points value and Gibbs was early teens I think. Adelaide definitely paid way overs on Gibbs.   I would be rating Hogan and Lever the same, so I would say 4 or 5 plus a 2nd rd pick is fair value.  The extra due to being in contract.  There is no way we get 2 picks under 6.  This was the Judd price and he was the best player in the comp. 

I hope I’m wrong but I thinks it’s wishful thinking on the 2 first rounders under 6. 

Edited September 27, 2018 by Demons11

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

Greetings Demonlanders. Long time reader first time poster.

This has been an interesting thread to follow. Opinions have ranged from the extremes of “shut the discussion down Jessie won’t leave, the club will never trade him and you’re not a real supporter for even bringing it up” to “we should [censored] him off to Freo now and cash in for three early first rounders and Adam Cerra.”

As usual the reality is going to be somewhere in between.

Where there’s smoke there’s usually fire and this round of rumours is stronger than anything we’ve seen previously. I suspect Paul Roos was right the other night when he said this thing is being largely driven by Freo, in which case the Dees have to seriously consider cashing in on a player who realistically might not want to stay at the club beyond 2019. He has so far given no commitment to doing so. 

We have shown on a number of occasions over several seasons that we can win and win well without Hogan, against quality opposition no less. So, if he is open to going and Freo are prepared to pay the freight, let’s put this situation to our advantage and use it to actually strengthen the 22 overall. A year from now he comes out of contract and we may not be blessed with such an opportunity. 

The multi-million dollar question is ... what’s he worth? Well, a number of factors come into play here, not least of which is how desperate and in need are Fremantle of a KPF of genuine quality? Answer: EXTREMELY. Fremantle supporters are getting restless with Ross Lyon facing the very real possibility of losing his job if he can’t manufacture something for them to get excited about next year. They haven’t had a reliable marking goalkicker since Pav hung them up. Make no mistake the Freo hierarchy will be sitting around a board table very nervous about entering yet another season with a shizen forward line and the more pressure we place on them on this trade the more likely they are to blink and cough up a handsome price in return. This is why the trading Hogan now should be quite attractive to us. For bloody once we have the whip hand and the other club over a barrel. Ain’t that nice!

That said I do think we have to be careful here not to chronically overrate Hogan and bandy around terms like “generational player”, “superstar” and all the other fawning epithets us one-eyed fans are want to put on our favourite players at times. A cold, clear analysis of Hogan’s output and abilities do not put him in the Wayne Carey/Jonathan Brown/Buddy Franklin class but do suggest he’s in the next tier down from these guys. He’s a fine player but there are enough minor flaws there to suggest Freo will walk away if our claims are too ambit and ridiculous. Pick 4 & 5 and a quality player? It’s not going to happen folks.

On the balance of it I’d say we will push for something like picks 5 & 9 in a strong draft with Freo holding out until the final day of trade week for something like pick 5 & either a second rounder or player of that quality (ie. Ed Langdon). We should not do that deal. We had to prize Jake Lever out of Adelaide with what many thought was ‘overs’ at the time. Freo can damn well do the same now if they are serious about slotting Jessie Hogan at full forward for round 1, 2019. 

I hope Josh Mahoney and Co are smart enough and tough enough to do what needs to be done here at the trade table. Recognise that Freo and Ross Lyon are in a bit of a desperate situation and make them ante up a bit more than they’d like to.

Then we can look at on trading Pick 9 to the Suns for Steve May, with Pick 5 going to GWS for Dylan Shiel (who I hear we are seriously into as well).

An outcome of that nature would strengthen our 22 on the balance of it and go close to having the bookies installing us as premiership favourites next year. At the end of the day that’s what it’s all about isn’t it?

Be bold and get it done Dees!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[Wiseblood 24,636]

2 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

You have to remember the actual picks that were given up for those players.

Lever was approximately pick 7 when looking at the points value and Gibbs was early teens I think. Adelaide definitely paid way overs on Gibbs.   I would be rating Hogan and Lever the same, so I would say 4 or 5 plus a 2nd rd pick is fair value.  The extra due to being in contract.  There is no way we get 2 picks under 6.  This was the Judd price and he was the best player in the comp. 

I hope I’m wrong but I thinks it’s wishful thinking on the 2 first rounders under 6. 

Maybe 2 first rounders under pick 6 is a stretch, but two first rounders isn't. 

Forget the nonsense with the points, as that comes into play far more for the clubs who need them to sign academy players, father/son etc.  If Lever and Gibbs can garner two first round picks, and Lachie Weller can be moved on for the second pick in the draft, then we would be well within our right to ask for two first round picks, or a first rounder and the equivalent player of a first round pick.  This is a 23 year old key forward who has his best years ahead of him and 150 goals under his belt.  They don't come around often.

I'd be shocked if we didn't get fair value IF we trade him at all.

[Redleg 37,474]

4 minutes ago, Demons11 said:

You have to remember the actual picks that were given up for those players.

Lever was approximately pick 7 when looking at the points value and Gibbs was early teens I think. Adelaide definitely paid way overs on Gibbs.   I would be rating Hogan and Lever the same, so I would say 4 or 5 plus a 2nd rd pick is fair value.  The extra due to being in contract.  There is no way we get 2 picks under 6.  This was the Judd price and he was the best player in the comp. 

I hope I’m wrong but I thinks it’s wishful thinking on the 2 first rounders under 6. 

In the words of Freo to GC, last year, about Lachie Weller, " you want him you pay our price". Guess what, they did.

If Weller was pick 2, Jesse is pick 1,2,3,4 and 5.

 

[Demons11 6,404]

1 minute ago, Redleg said:

In the words of Freo to GC, last year, about Lachie Weller, " you want him you pay our price". Guess what, they did.

If Weller was pick 2, Jesse is pick 1,2,3,4 and 5.

 

?

[Demons11 6,404]

3 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Maybe 2 first rounders under pick 6 is a stretch, but two first rounders isn't. 

Forget the nonsense with the points, as that comes into play far more for the clubs who need them to sign academy players, father/son etc.  If Lever and Gibbs can garner two first round picks, and Lachie Weller can be moved on for the second pick in the draft, then we would be well within our right to ask for two first round picks, or a first rounder and the equivalent player of a first round pick.  This is a 23 year old key forward who has his best years ahead of him and 150 goals under his belt.  They don't come around often.

I'd be shocked if we didn't get fair value IF we trade him at all.

I understand the points are nonsense but it does help to really understand what has been given up in the past. 

[Macca 16,173]

5 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

2013 - Freeman and Scharenberg have had injuries but other than that the top 10 have all cemented themselves as AFL players.

2014 - McCartin has had a lot of scrutiny due to being pick 1 but has played well enough to be considered an AFL level player. Ahern I don't know much about, Cockatoo plays seniors when not injured. The rest are all AFL quality players.

2015 - Schache looks like a bust but is still young. The rest are all AFL quality players.

2016 - Not sure about some of the GC boys (Scrimshaw, Brodie, Bowes) but they've all played senior footy. McGrath, Taranto, McCluggage, Ainsworth, SPS all AFL level talent and still very young.

2017 - Some of these kids are still too young to make a call on - but Rayner, Brayshaw, Dow, Cerra, Stephenson have all played. The Saints picks may have missed (again too early to say) but their whole club is a shambles at the moment it wouldn't surprise me if they're recruiters are as well.

Overall the draft (and in particular top 10/15 picks) are less of a lottery than they have been in the past. It's not a sure thing but the strike rate is vastly improved on top 10 picks, generally about 75-80% (as I said previously).

Trust your judgement Gonzo so things might have improved somewhat although ... I believe a bigger sample size at least 5 years on is more applicable.

I started a thread in late 2014 outlining and highlighting 10 drafts and concentrating on the top 5 picks ... 10 Years of Drafting (2000 - 2009)

Within that link exposed a number of myths and some absolute truth's as well.  My summation is that unless the recruiters are generally incompetent right across the board,  there has to be a system problem.  We need to look further than our own club too.  A macro view is required.

Appreciate your research though and it is food for thought. 

I want way overs for Hogan as I absolutely rate the bloke ... he's had rotten run with injuries and family tragedies but at some stage that time will pass and he'll be fit,  firing and ready to go.

[McQueen 17,862]

Freo definitely won’t want to pass up two top 10 picks in this years draft. There’s just no way it suits their rebuild phase. 

If Hogan leaves, I would be happy with this years 4,5 or whatever after FA compo effects and then, next years first rounder from Freo which should also be well inside the top ten. 

The Dockers strategy is bringing strong WA talent home and they’ve been quite successful in this the last few years but have had some busts with Bennell and McCarthy. I reckon this year they’ll head to the strong draft with at least one top 10 selection. 

Edited September 27, 2018 by McQueen

[Moonshadow 16,109]

33 minutes ago, bing181 said:

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/melbourne/melbourne-could-be-better-without-forward-jesse-hogan-writes-jay-clark/news-story/41e7737a13a48695165036394665883d

Paywall.

Does it say Jesse reads Demonland or pays attention to social media?

[Wiseblood 24,636]

14 minutes ago, McQueen said:

Freo definitely won’t want to pass up two too 10 picks in this years draft. There’s just no way it suits their rebuild phase. 

If Hogan leaves, I would be happy with this years 4,5 or what ever after FA compo effects and then, next years first rounder from Freo which should also be well inside the top ten. 

The Dockers strategy is bringing strong WA talent home and they’ve been quite successful in this the last few years but have had some busts with Bennell and McCarthy. I reckon this year they’ll head to the strong draft with at least one top 10 selection. 

I'm going out on a limb with this one, but from what I've seen, there isn't a whole lot of top end talent from WA in this years draft.  I know that doesn't make a huge difference, but there is a reason clubs like Port and Adelaide are keen to move up the draft to nab players from their home state.  

If there isn't much on offer from WA this year, but the crop is stronger next season (pure speculation as I have no idea), then they may be more inclined to pass on two picks from this season and hold on to next years instead.

The fact they drafted Brayshaw and Cerra means I could be totally wrong, although we already know that Cerra took a while to re-sign and could be a flight risk in the future, so they may look to try and get talent from their home state a little more in the coming seasons.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

1 minute ago, Moonshadow said:

Paywall.

Does it say Jesse reads Demonland or pays attention to social media?

Neither.  Just that, based on the Eagles game (it was written after that game, not today), we've shown that we can survive without Hogan.  3 or 4 years ago you wouldn't have given him up for anything, but now Clark says we will be fine if he decides to go home.  The article was written in August so maybe Jay Clark is some sort of clairvoyant?

[Pates 9,536]

The positive thing about where the club is at is that we are not a one player club and the lads within seem to have a great bond building. So if he leaves I now have confidence that the club will make it beneficial to us and we won’t unravel. 

Next couple of days will be telling though, I feel like if he doesn’t feel comfortable about committing to us beyond 2019 then now might we be the best time to part ways. What we don’t want is him to be uncontracted with us next year and us having to deal with the constant speculation, it has been damaging to multiple clubs (including ours) in the past. 

Edited September 27, 2018 by Pates

[daisycutter 28,452]

35 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

Greetings Demonlanders. Long time reader first time poster.

This has been an interesting thread to follow. Opinions have ranged from the extremes of “shut the discussion down Jessie won’t leave, the club will never trade him and you’re not a real supporter for even bringing it up” to “we should [censored] him off to Freo now and cash in for three early first rounders and Adam Cerra.”

As usual the reality is going to be somewhere in between.

Where there’s smoke there’s usually fire and this round of rumours is stronger than anything we’ve seen previously. I suspect Paul Roos was right the other night when he said this thing is being largely driven by Freo, in which case the Dees have to seriously consider cashing in on a player who realistically might not want to stay at the club beyond 2018. He has so far given no commitment to doing so. 

We have shown on a number of occasions over several seasons that we can win and win well without Hogan, against quality opposition no less. So, if he is open to going and Freo are prepared to pay the freight, let’s put this situation to our advantage and use it to actually strengthen the 22 overall. A year from now he comes out of contract and we may not be blessed with such an opportunity. 

The multi-million dollar question is ... what’s he worth? Well, a number of factors come into play here, not least of which is how desperate and in need are Fremantle of a KPF of genuine quality? Answer: EXTREMELY. Fremantle supporters are getting restless with Ross Lyon facing the very real possibility of losing his job if he can’t manufacture something for them to get excited about next year. They haven’t had a reliable marking goalkicker since Pav hung them up. Make no mistake the Freo hierarchy will be sitting around a board table very nervous about entering yet another season with a shizen forward line and the more pressure we place on them on this trade the more likely they are to blink and cough up a handsome price in return. This is why the trading Hogan now should be quite attractive to us. For bloody once we have the whip hand and the other club over a barrel. Ain’t that nice!

That said I do think we have to be careful here not to chronically overrate Hogan and bandy around terms like “generational player”, “superstar” and all the other fawning epithets us one-eyed fans are want to put on our favourite players at times. A cold, clear analysis of Hogan’s output and abilities do not put him in the Wayne Carey/Jonathan Brown/Buddy Franklin class but do suggest he’s in the next tier down from these guys. He’s a fine player but there are enough minor flaws there to suggest Freo will walk away if our claims are too ambit and ridiculous. Pick 4 & 5 and a quality player? It’s not going to happen folks.

On the balance of it I’d say we will push for something like picks 5 & 9 in a strong draft with Freo holding out until the final day of trade week for something like pick 5 & either a second rounder or player of that quality (ie. Ed Langdon). We should not do that deal. We had to prize Jake Lever out of Adelaide with what many thought was ‘overs’ at the time. Freo can damn well do the same now if they are serious about slotting Jessie Hogan at full forward for round 1, 2019. 

I hope Josh Mahoney and Co are smart enough and tough enough to do what needs to be done here at the trade table. Recognise that Freo and Ross Lyon are in a bit of a desperate situation and make them ante up a bit more than they’d like to.

Then we can look at on trading Pick 9 to the Suns for Steve May, with Pick 5 going to GWS for Dylan Shiel (who I hear we are seriously into as well).

An outcome of that nature would strengthen our 22 on the balance of it and go close to having the bookies installing us as premiership favourites next year. At the end of the day that’s what it’s all about isn’t it?

Be bold and get it done Dees!

 

well, i hope the strategy is not to allow it to go to the last trade date

that would be disastrous to us if we want to land another big trade (which i think is what we want)

so, mfc must make it clear to freo that the deadline is long before last trade date, otherwise no deal will be made

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

8 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

well, i hope the strategy is not to allow it to go to the last trade date

that would be disastrous to us if we want to land another big trade (which i think is what we want)

so, mfc must make it clear to freo that the deadline is long before last trade date, otherwise no deal will be made

I agree. Time will tell to see if Freo are living in denial or not. If they want Hogan they’re going to have to cough up or risk a West Coast raid for him next year. To my reckoning we’ve got them right up against the wall here. Pay up or shut up.

Edited September 27, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[layzie 28,488]

Just gotta throw it out there. If Freo aren't bulking at the first set of demands then we aren't doing our job.

[spirit of norm smith 12,834]

56 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Maybe 2 first rounders under pick 6 is a stretch, but two first rounders isn't. 

Forget the nonsense with the points, as that comes into play far more for the clubs who need them to sign academy players, father/son etc.  If Lever and Gibbs can garner two first round picks, and Lachie Weller can be moved on for the second pick in the draft, then we would be well within our right to ask for two first round picks, or a first rounder and the equivalent player of a first round pick.  This is a 23 year old key forward who has his best years ahead of him and 150 goals under his belt.  They don't come around often.

I'd be shocked if we didn't get fair value IF we trade him at all.

Good call

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

53 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

That said I do think we have to be careful here not to chronically overrate Hogan and bandy around terms like “generational player”, “superstar” and all the other fawning epithets us one-eyed fans are want to put on our favourite players at times. A cold, clear analysis of Hogan’s output and abilities do not put him in the Wayne Carey/Jonathan Brown/Buddy Franklin class but do suggest he’s in the next tier down from these guys.

Welcome to posting...

I have to take exception to this. No-one's using fawning epithets when they describe him like that. And just so you know, when the news broke, it was a mate of mine who's a one-eyed Tigers supporter who I first heard talk of Jesse as a generational talent. So it's not just the one-eyed demons supporters.

Furthermore, a cold clear analysis of Hogan's output has, for a couple of years now, shown not only is he on the level of those guys, but he actually did more than them at a similar age. We all saw the articles written early in his career pointing this out. We've even seen Riewoldt-like articles written this year.

I'm not telling you you can't look down on Hogan, we all have our ways of looking at footy differently. But you should preface it by claiming it as your opinion. And I'd point out that you're in the minority.

The larger football world absolutely has him as the best KPF under 25 (unless you're a Blues supporter). He's not the best going around right now, certainly. But that's a reflection of his age and experience. He still needs more than a season to crack 100 games. And of the superstars running around right now, he has most of them beaten at a similar age. He doesn't have much more to do to be described accurately as a generational talent. If he went to Freo, he'd be their next Pavlich. Doesn't get a whole lot better than that. 

[bing181 8,149]

29 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Paywall.

Does it say Jesse reads Demonland or pays attention to social media?

Whether he does/doesn't is irrelevant. It was a talking point across the media, including radio and TV. You only had to watch the live broadcasts for it to come up, and you'd have to live in a cave with no exposure to ANY footy to have not heard/seen this floated, especially after Weideman's performance against Geelong.

[Jibroni 4,018]

Im predicting tomorrow that Hogan will announce that he is staying and this thread will get to 100 pages.

[rpfc 27,391]

6 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

Im predicting tomorrow that Hogan will announce that he is staying and this thread will get to 100 pages.

You have the same avatar as Chook in Perth and it misled me and my emotions just then...