NATIONAL DRAFT PICKS 3 & 7

[Converted Dee 115]

I would love to know the type of questions the recruiters ask potential draftees.

Would one of the questions go along the lines of "How do you feel about playing for the Melbourne Football Club?"

Be interesting to know what they do ask and some of the responses they get. And if anybody has ever said "No, I wouldn't want to be drafted by you"?

Curious. Anybody know?

[Demon Disciple 11,802]

I think in Nick Vlastuin's interview with the club, he told our recruiter's in no uncertain terms that he had no interest in playing for a club that had tanked.

[M C 221]

There were also rumours posted here that Zak Jones told Collingwood to get 'effed after what happened to his father

[DubDee 24,693]

thought id look back at KPFs taken early between 08 and 2012

2008: 1 Watts 8 Vickery

2009 8 Butcher 19 Grifiths, 24 Carlisle 29 Gunston 38 S Reid

2010 2 Sam Day 11 Lynch 26 Darling

2011 1 Patton 9 Tomlinson

2012 10 - Daniher

I quickly scanned the top 50 of each draft for KPFs - there was surprisingly few! Although I probably missed some. I think it shows that they are almost as likely to come from later picks than from top picks. Patton is a gun but injury prone. 2009 where butcher was touted as top 3 and then all others ended up being better than he is. Sam Day hasnt done much.

Unless there is a standout, use the high picks on mids as KPF are risky business.

and YES i put Watts down as a KPF as that was what he was drafted as.

[ChaserJ 4,811]

thought id look back at KPFs taken early between 08 and 2012

2008: 1 Watts 8 Vickery

2009 8 Butcher 19 Grifiths, 24 Carlisle 29 Gunston 38 S Reid

2010 2 Sam Day 11 Lynch 26 Darling

2011 1 Patton 9 Tomlinson

2012 10 - Daniher

I quickly scanned the top 50 of each draft for KPFs - there was surprisingly few! Although I probably missed some. I think it shows that they are almost as likely to come from later picks than from top picks. Patton is a gun but injury prone. 2009 where butcher was touted as top 3 and then all others ended up being better than he is. Sam Day hasnt done much.

Unless there is a standout, use the high picks on mids as KPF are risky business.

and YES i put Watts down as a KPF as that was what he was drafted as.

Extrapolate that further and have a look at the elite key fwds in the game over the last 5-10 years and how they got the club.

Reasonable number of F/S selections. The top end guys are rare. The fact that the high selections haven't all panned out further outlines that point.

[Its Time for Another 4,088]

We were ranked 18th last year. I disagree with you. Yes we might improve but when was the last elite mid we had? And I mean elite. You need at least two to be a contender.

And there is no guarantee we will get the right fwd line. I maintain we are better off finding elite mids and pumping th eball into our fwd line 70 times a game. The opposite doesn't work imo.

This is a question worthy of it's own subject. Who was the last elite mid we had.

I'm thinking Robbie. Has there been an elite midfielder since then. Before that probably Greg Wells, Stan Alves.

Love to hear some suggestions.

[beelzebub 23,240]

thought id look back at KPFs taken early between 08 and 2012

2008: 1 Watts 8 Vickery

2009 8 Butcher 19 Grifiths, 24 Carlisle 29 Gunston 38 S Reid

2010 2 Sam Day 11 Lynch 26 Darling

2011 1 Patton 9 Tomlinson

2012 10 - Daniher

I quickly scanned the top 50 of each draft for KPFs - there was surprisingly few! Although I probably missed some. I think it shows that they are almost as likely to come from later picks than from top picks. Patton is a gun but injury prone. 2009 where butcher was touted as top 3 and then all others ended up being better than he is. Sam Day hasnt done much.

Unless there is a standout, use the high picks on mids as KPF are risky business.

and YES i put Watts down as a KPF as that was what he was drafted as.

Its a point I alluded to elsewhere DubDee..a lot of good forwards come from outside the top 10..in fact outside the 1st round. Thats not to say that doesnt occur only that its not the preserve of early picks to become effective kpp.. One might even suggest more failures than successes.

Often KPP fwds ( backs also ) tend to be taller types with something a bit better than a coathanger body. Exceptions to rule ..Hogan etc.. rare !! These types seem to go in one a on few directions. 1) they get well and truly found out at senior level and their careers stall. 2) takes years (4-5 ) for them to grown into their height and become effective footy players at the elite level . Often injuries plague them as their bodies sort themselves out or 3) occasionally seem to slip into decent form inside 18 months there is a sort of 4th group.. They turn into halfway decent players, nothing amazing but workmanlike ..often journeymen style...club to club to club

The fifth type is of course Jesse Hogan...rare as hens teeth

spend your picks wisely folks

[daisycutter 29,429]

This is a question worthy of it's own subject. Who was the last elite mid we had.

I'm thinking Robbie. Has there been an elite midfielder since then. Before that probably Greg Wells, Stan Alves.

Love to hear some suggestions.

there were a couple of the odd brownlow medallists you missed

[ManDee 7,124]

I would love to know the type of questions the recruiters ask potential draftees.

Would one of the questions go along the lines of "How do you feel about playing for the Melbourne Football Club?"

Be interesting to know what they do ask and some of the responses they get. And if anybody has ever said "No, I wouldn't want to be drafted by you"?

Curious. Anybody know?

Nic Nat said something like ,no big deal I can go home in 2 years.

[DeeSpencer 24,899]

Heaps of misses with key forwards at the first round. But still:

N Riewoldt, J Riewoldt, Kennedy, Franklin, Roughead, Daniher, Lynch, Stringer, Pavlich, McCarthy, Darling, Schulz

Father son's who would've gone first round: Cloke, Hawkins, Waite

Mini draft/undrafted: Cameron, Hogan

Even if it's a 50% strike rate if you get it right you've got a great player. That's the reality with key forwards, they are either boom or bust.

If our recruiters don't rate Weideman and Curnow that's fine. But if they do I'd almost live with a bust knowing that we had a crack. They don't have to be superstars either. Taking the extra pick a year earlier, having Dawes and Pedersen who both aren't great but at least provide some depth, the extra interchange spot and mainly the Hogan factor mean we have much better development circumstances than the Lucas Cook debacle.

[rjay 24,677]

Our best win of this year, against the Cats at Mordor, was without Hogan, and our temporary tall forward structure held up quite well...

Temporary things often do but they're temporary for a reason. They don't hold up for long..

[binman 42,115]

Good, and I hope we pick a talented tall if we pick up one of those two - but I don't want this club to reach past a mid to do it.

Our midfield is all promise at the moment - I would argue to add to it.

Vince and Jones have a handful of years left, Trengove is a running question mark, Vanders has started well but will be at his peak very quickly, Tyson and Kent have struggled with injury in their short but promising careers, Salem and ANB are yet to play midfield in the AFL, and Petracca yet to play AFL...

There is so much promise there to go with Viney and Brayshaw but little room for the aforementioned quality (or seeming quality) to fail or be lost to injury.

Jones, Vince, Viney, Brayshaw, Tyson, Salem, Petracca, Kent, ANB, Vanders, and Trengove is not a great midfield.

It could be a great midfield...

Could not agree more. I'd also add the best mid fields have at least 1 stone cold a graders. We don't. You could make a case for both Jones and Vince but if we're honest neither are in the Mitchell, fyfe, hodge, Kennedy, parker, sellwood, priddis league. Track, Gus and perhaps Salem might get to that level, might being the operative word. Can we afford to take the risk at pick 3 of going tall and missing a player who becomes one of those premium mids? I don't think so. By the by that doesn't discount taking curnow given roos loves big, tall mids. It does discount wiedemen

[rjay 24,677]

there were a couple of the odd brownlow medallists you missed

Not elite though...

[Gator 17,261]

...a lot of good forwards come from outside the 1st round.

Who ?

[Gator 17,261]

thought id look back at KPFs taken early between 08 and 2012

2008: 1 Watts 8 Vickery

2009 8 Butcher 19 Grifiths, 24 Carlisle 29 Gunston 38 S Reid

2010 2 Sam Day 11 Lynch 26 Darling

2011 1 Patton 9 Tomlinson

2012 10 - Daniher

I quickly scanned the top 50 of each draft for KPFs - there was surprisingly few! Although I probably missed some. I think it shows that they are almost as likely to come from later picks than from top picks. Patton is a gun but injury prone. 2009 where butcher was touted as top 3 and then all others ended up being better than he is. Sam Day hasnt done much.

Unless there is a standout, use the high picks on mids as KPF are risky business.

and YES i put Watts down as a KPF as that was what he was drafted as.

I was discussing this earlier today. Add duds Gumbleton and Hansen, whom failed to make the grade, although the latter is OK down back.

In the last 10 years, for whatever reason, not one top 3 key forward draft pick has become a gun. They still may, but for varying reasons it hasn't happened.

In spite of that I want to roll the dice with either Curnow or Weideman as the rewards could be immense. And in an 18 team comp, when all you want is a flag, I'll take a key forward if Taylor thinks the talent is there.

[beelzebub 23,240]

Who ?

ffs go back and read lazty

[Gator 17,261]

ffs go back and read lazty

You mentioned 3 players. One was Walker, who was a zone selection to Adelaide. That left you with the grand total of two. One of those two was Westhoff, who averages 1.3 goals per game.

Don't get angry, just be sure of your facts.

[rjay 24,677]

Its a point I alluded to elsewhere DubDee..a lot of good forwards come from outside the top 10..in fact outside the 1st round. Thats not to say that doesnt occur only that its not the preserve of early picks to become effective kpp.. One might even suggest more failures than successes.

Often KPP fwds ( backs also ) tend to be taller types with something a bit better than a coathanger body. Exceptions to rule ..Hogan etc.. rare !! These types seem to go in one a on few directions. 1) they get well and truly found out at senior level and their careers stall. 2) takes years (4-5 ) for them to grown into their height and become effective footy players at the elite level . Often injuries plague them as their bodies sort themselves out or 3) occasionally seem to slip into decent form inside 18 months there is a sort of 4th group.. They turn into halfway decent players, nothing amazing but workmanlike ..often journeymen style...club to club to club

The fifth type is of course Jesse Hogan...rare as hens teeth

spend your picks wisely folks

If you look at the Coleman medal all the KPF's the feature are first round draft selections or have come to the club via special circumstances i.e. zone, mini draft.

The first round is where you set your key forwards...

[olisik 4,060]

I think Oliver is the most unlikely player to be their at 7 if we don't take him at 3

Apparently Essendon are all over this kid and see him as a potential replacement for Watson.

Edited November 19, 2015 by olisik

[rpfc 28,070]

If you were a mid looking forward and saw Dawes there you would hardly feel inclined to bang it forward.

...anyway, appreciate your opinion on this, as you probably guessed mine is different. Be a boring forum if we all agreed on everything.

Cheers 'jnrmac'

You seriously think that our low clearance numbers and low Inside 50s are due to the fact that our players aren't 'inspired' to kick it to Dawes? Or were you simply being flippant to avoid the valid point?

I would argue to get off the Dawes Is To Blame For All Our Forward Woes Bandwagon and think about what jnrmac is saying about our midfield.

It should naturally improve with the young talent getting more exposure, but it is still bottom 4 in the league and our 'barely functioning' forwardline has done quite well to score as much as they have with the lack of supply.

[Wells 11 5,299]

I agree with certain posters that have said this draft is doing their head in. I keep changing my mind....so far its been Parish, Weideman, back to Parish, Oliver, McKay, Curnow.

Ultimately its going to come down to just getting a bit lucky isnt it. All the research and hours watching tapes and games still doesn't tell you that Ollie Wines will be who he became, or that Watts would become who he did..or Fyfe etc etc

Im going to like whoever we pick at 3 and 7 because they've all probably been in my mind at some point...Im just going to also pray that the footy gods are on our side this year!

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

Where can you bet the MFC pick the wrong the players?

Probs too short of odds anyway

[beelzebub 23,240]

You mentioned 3 players. One was Walker, who was a zone selection to Adelaide. That left you with the grand total of two. One of those two was Westhoff, who averages 1.3 goals per game.

Don't get angry, just be sure of your facts.

Just for you Ben

some handy names

Decent forwards not taken in round 1 of a draft

Richard Osborne

Warren Tredrea a SA zone selection..would he have gone 1st round ? maybe...doubt it

Dermott Brereton

David Neitz

Daniel Bradshaw

Jack Riewoldt outside (the top 10 )

John Longmire

Alastair Lynch

Wayne Carey for a paltry $10000 transfer back in the day

Fraser Gehrig

Barry Hall pick 19...not first round eh

Matthew Richardson yes father /son....but would he have gone first round ?

Brendan Fevola

Peter Sumich

Matthew Lloyd

Steve Johnson

Cam Mooney

Adam Goodes

[mo64 5,597]

Just for you Ben

some handy names

Decent forwards not taken in round 1 of a draft

Richard Osborne

Warren Tredrea a SA zone selection..would he have gone 1st round ? maybe...doubt it

Dermott Brereton

David Neitz

Daniel Bradshaw

Jack Riewoldt outside (the top 10 )

John Longmire

Alastair Lynch

Wayne Carey for a paltry $10000 transfer back in the day

Fraser Gehrig

Barry Hall pick 19...not first round eh

Matthew Richardson yes father /son....but would he have gone first round ?

Brendan Fevola

Peter Sumich

Matthew Lloyd

Steve Johnson

Cam Mooney

Adam Goodes

Not your best work BB. The highlighted players either pre-dated the draft, were zone players, father/sons, or were part of trade deals.

[spirit of norm smith 15,470]

Surely Oliver at 3 ... (#4 if we bid on Mills)

Then its Parish and Weideman to Bombers and Francis to Suns

Dees get Curnow