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Shock no1 soo we are crying out for key forwards. So WHY is T Mac at Full Back and Jefferson im the Back Pocket? BROWN 1 from limited opps FULLARTON 2 great pack marks and rucking well BROWNDOG Busy JED ADAMS Very good THOLSRUUP AND SESTAN Lively MONiz WAKEFIELD Coposed WOEY OK ALSO; WHO IS THE ONLY SENIOR PLAYER WATCHING???????? CLARRY CHOO CHOO😇🤩😎18 points
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Apart from the mullet Sestan looks a completely different player from last season. I reckon he's lost 10kg and is covering the ground a lot better. He's a natural footballer with clear talent.13 points
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The problem is the same issues as last year were repeated. Poor ball movement/disposal No movement inside 50 Poor entries inside 50 Inaccuracy in front of goal Too many NQR passengers Failure from coaches to change things up when not working11 points
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There are some truly garbage hot takes in this thread, but equally there was some ridiculous overconfidence after beating Carlton in a practice match (say it with me one more time - it was a [censored] practice match). I was there. The humidity was telling. We simply didn't cope. That's understandable, but disappointing. Grundy was good but the key difference was he wasn't being blocked, checked, hit and kneed at every contest. Gawn was. We know this happens when we go in without proper ruck support. This has been happening for 8 years. We were also visibly cooked about 5 minutes into the last. That will partly be because we were a player down plus May appeared to be hobbling, and partly because we struggled with the humidity. But it's also concerning. We pride ourselves on our fitness and specifically running out fourth quarters, but we were gassed too early. Having said all that, three things really stand out to me as areas of significant concern: I never, ever, want to see Spargo, Chandler and Laurie in the same side again. On the understanding that ANB is a walk-up best 22 player, there will never be a situation in which we need all three of these players alongside ANB. Sadly, I do not see anything in Laurie to suggest he's good enough, but IMO Spargo was atrocious tonight - I watched him and he appeared lazy, pointing without manning up and waltzing between contests. I didn't like that we picked him off no practice matches and I think it was a massive mistake. I think we conceded that we stuffed this up by subbing so early in the third, which we don't normally do. The worst bit was that this robbed us of a rotation when Bowey went down. Spargo will probably be suspended but I'd be happy to drop him for Kozzie next week We can't play Schache again. Not after that. That was so, so weak. They ignored him most of the night, allowing McCartin to blanket JVR. Fullarton or Brown have to replace Schache next week. We lost CPs and clearances to a side missing three first-choice midfielders. That is enormously concerning. We do not have a good enough forward line or forward half game to be that bad in the middle, and if a side missing that much midfield power can beat us in the middle, then we are in for a tough time. I loved Howes and Windsor, Viney was incredible, and Oliver was so good for someone with the summer he's had. May was dominant in the air and Salem in the midfield clearly works. I won't write us off after one summer's game in Darwin-like conditions, but enough went wrong tonight to give me a lot more doubt than I want.11 points
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Just one other thing about Clarry, just after 3/4 time a Port Melbourne player came over to Clayton and the joy, cameraderie,and passion was on display with bear hugs and plenty of backslapping and Bonhomie, clearly hadn't seen each other for a time but the obvious rapport was evident! The Port Melbourne player in question was..... Fraser Rosman a 1 time Dee Was great to see🤩10 points
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I'm not one to bag players, and was more than happy to be open to the idea schache might be OK. But as we saw with weed, if a player hasn't got instinctive grunt and fire they rarely can develop it. Slippery night, so the talls get a pass on marking, but his lack of second efforts and inability to hold his ground are woeful. Both were on display in a contest where Grundy marked on the wing, on his chest. Weak effort by schache. They got a goal as a result. And those attributes means it hard to see him making it as a second ruck.10 points
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Has been an issue for several years. As has been a pattern not to adjust our method. Ironic that on a night we should of been kicking long for territory, we were linking up with hands. Again, our poor kicking was a massive factor. Slippery conditions exacerbate our kicking iusues because it exposes poor technique. Which made the decision not to start billings even more perplexing. And slippery conditions expose how much we rely on maxy's marking. Did he take a mark last night? Such a frustrating game to watch. Infuriating10 points
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He was the player I most wanted to see debut this year for the progression of the list. I wasn't so sure after his pre season form. Wow what a great debut in a tough game, in a tough role under the pump. Here are his team rankings in some key stats. 1st intercept possessions 9 5th equal contested possessions 9 6th disposal efficiency 82.4% 6th equal most tackles 3 8th equal most disposals. 17 11th Uncontested possessions 9 12th most metres gained 224 20th game time. (Take into account Laurie was subbed off, Bowey went off injured, Billings was only the sub)9 points
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I am getting sick of seeing this, where are our players? Gawn said it was one of the toughest nights of his career due to the humid and sweaty conditions and the physical buffeting he copped from the Swans’ players at the SCG. “The Sydney boys did well targeting me around the ground and credit to them.8 points
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Still cant get over T Mac at Full back and Jeffo Back Pocket!!! Mystifying given our dire need for Forwards. BBB looked rusty and Fullars looked likely. Sestan, Tholly and K Browndog very good as was T Mac8 points
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1.8 from 29 entries deserves everything it gets we certainly didn’t deserve compliments8 points
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Tom McCartin's a really good defender and didn't have to worry about anyone else in the air in our forward line, so he was able to cover JVR pretty well. JVR wasn't amazing but he's nowhere near the top of the list of concerns.8 points
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Here are the stats for last night. I can add them to the Stats Files thread once @Demon Dynasty creates it for 2024. It's largely the same range of stats as last year, although I have developed an expected score model over the off season so this is included. Attn @binman Melbourne v Sydney (Opening Round, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240001 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 71.1 68.9 +2.2 Kicking Efficiency 63.4 64.5 -1.1 Metres Gained 5534 6279 -745 Inside 50s 51 65 -14 Shots At Goal 21 29 -8 Shots Per Inside 50 41.2 44.6 -3.4 Contested Possessions 145 146 -1 Ground Ball Gets 109 98 +11 Intercepts 78 75 +3 Intercept Marks 14 18 -4 Centre Clearances 12 9 +3 Stoppage Clearances 22 36 -14 Contested Marks 3 8 -5 Marks Inside 50 5 9 -4 Hitouts 38 46 -8 Hitouts To Advantage 9 13 -4 Tackles 65 63 +2 Tackles Inside 50 24 13 +11 Def One On One Loss % 20.0 28.6 -8.6 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 21 9.8.62 42.9% 63.7 −1.7 3.03 −0.08 Sydney 29 12.10.82 41.4% 79.7 +2.3 2.75 +0.08 General Play Melbourne 15 5.6.36 33.3% 43.2 −7.2 2.88 −0.48 Sydney 16 7.8.50 43.8% 42.3 +7.7 2.64 +0.48 Set Position Melbourne 6 4.2.26 66.7% 20.5 +5.5 3.42 +0.91 Sydney 13 5.2.32 38.5% 37.4 −5.4 2.88 −0.42 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 193 202 2 177 171 3 195 186 4 159 204 Match 182 190 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Tom Sparrow 31 71 71.0 Jack Viney 30 63 63.0 Kade Chandler 20 47 47.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 20 47 47.0 Clayton Oliver 25 46 46.0 Caleb Windsor 20 45 45.0 Blake Howes 12 34 34.0 Ed Langdon 18 34 34.0 Max Gawn 11 30 30.0 Christian Petracca 15 30 30.0 Christian Salem 14 28 28.0 Bayley Fritsch 11 19 19.0 Steven May 8 18 18.0 Adam Tomlinson 8 18 18.0 Jack Billings 6 17 17.0 Trent Rivers 10 17 17.0 Josh Schache 8 17 17.0 Charlie Spargo 8 17 17.0 Jacob van Rooyen 6 16 16.0 Bailey Laurie 8 15 15.0 Jake Bowey 5 11 11.0 Jake Lever 3 4 4.0 Judd McVee 1 2 2.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 48% 52% 2 55% 45% 3 39% 61% 4 40% 60% Match 48% 52% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 1.1.7 0.3.3 +4 Stoppage (Other) 2.4.16 4.4.28 -12 Turnover 6.5.41 8.7.55 -14 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce 7 7.0 3 3.0 Stoppage (Other) 16 16.0 28 28.0 Turnover 41 41.0 55 55.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 7 7.0 3 3.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 1 1.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 7 7.0 26 26.0 Stoppage (Other) F50 9 9.0 1 1.0 Turnover D50 2 2.0 6 6.0 Turnover Centre 6 6.0 6 6.0 Turnover Wing 9 9.0 39 39.0 Turnover F50 24 24.0 4 4.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 2 2.0 6 6.0 Centre 13 13.0 10 10.0 Wing 16 16.0 65 65.0 F50 33 33.0 5 5.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 8 8.0 27 27.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Sydney. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 21 88 87.5 64.9 Jack Viney 19 79 79.2 72.1 Clayton Oliver 15 62 62.5 81.4 Christian Petracca 14 58 58.3 61.1 Tom Sparrow 13 54 54.2 44.9 Christian Salem 9 38 37.5 0.0 Josh Schache 2 8 8.3 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 1 4 4.2 2.1 Charlie Spargo 1 4 4.2 0.0 Jacob van Rooyen 1 4 4.2 7.6 Trent Rivers 0 0 0.0 3.0 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 89 85 84.8 57.5 Josh Schache 14 13 13.3 4.1 Jacob van Rooyen 2 2 1.9 13.1 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.0 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.0 0.4 Clayton Oliver 0 0 0.0 0.1 Steven May 0 0 0.0 0.0 Tom Sparrow 0 0 0.0 0.0 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 89 37 8 21.6 30.1 Josh Schache 14 1 1 100.0 0.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0 Jacob van Rooyen 2 0 0 31.1 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Brodie Grundy 76 33 13 Hayden McLean 24 10 0 Joel Amartey 4 2 0 Justin McInerney 1 1 07 points
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Also for those marking JVR harshly it's worth considering that Amartey and Logan McD also had very little influence. McD kicked his first goal in the last qtr. McLean was the only tall to clunk a couple of marks I50, also later in the game and one was thanks to a mix up between May and Max7 points
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Good post from someone who gets it, not a great night and plenty of basic errors but some of the tripe on here is predictable but just so uneducated. Those who lauded us after beating Carlton are most of those who are the most vocal tonight and the ones who underestimated Sydney’s midfield which has had depth for years but never had a big physical presence in the ruck. Am I concerned yes a little but been around long enough to know it’s a long season7 points
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Wait until we play on a normal shaped ground before going apoplectic. I'd also be asking the umpires department about Grundy going straight over the centre line too. Pretty sure that was a free kick last year for not giving the oppo ruck a chance to jump for the tap. Unless the umps made it up at the time. Lloyd Meek was pinned a few times for it.7 points
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Did anyone notice any change to our game plan from previous years? The game evolves every season but our game style seem to stay the same. There might have been a few more attempts to switch play but largely our ball movement was predictable and that only works if you can win contested football by a large margin. Positives were newbies Windsor, Howes and add McVee and May and Fritsch up forward. The on ball unit racked up possessions but rarely managed to link up to do real damage to the Swans. Could be a long season.7 points
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Trac went missing when the game was there to be won. Don't be sucked in by a few nice stats. He was horrible tonight.7 points
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Gawn - was surprisingly monstered Viney - take first options Petracca - only in bursts Bowie - great until injured McVee - loose and fumbled Sparrow - fumbled and loose Oliver - great despite adversity vanRooyen - had no impact May - important but limited Fritsch - our only forward Lever - poor under pressure Salem - promising first half Langdon - had little involvement Billings - had no impact Neal Bullen - couldn’t get involved Windsor - a promising debut Howes - lots to like Schache - little to like Spargo - rarely got involved Chandler - nothing to impress Tomlinson - played his part Rivers - performance to forget Laurie - never inspired confidence6 points
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They've figured out that his natural kicking action works best at 120m.6 points
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Will get worse until we address the physicality on Gawn. Clubs know there is no ready made backup.6 points
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Is the question why does no one stand up for Gawn? It’s why I hope Fullerton is AFL standard. We need a big body to canon into the opposition’s ruck at every opportunity. Bang, bang, bang. Grundy needed to be hit and hit hard. Schache’s not that guy and needs to stop getting games.6 points
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Yep we have all the physical presence of a french pastry. We seem to play as if the bump has already been banned. Mind you we need a few bigger bodies in the packs.6 points
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I really think we were the better side in the first half but rather than a 3-4 goal lead we had a 7 point deficit. Yes we bombed it in at times far too much. But you could see forwards from both sides gassed from half way in each quarter and lacking imagination. Other times we hit Fritsch, Chandler, Schache etc etc lace out on leads and got nothing from it. Plus bad missed shots (Spargo, Fritsch) and outlandish goal reviews. A wild discrepancy between holding the ball calls based on which jumper you wore too. The personnel concerns we know about. Good luck to anyone who thinks the selectors were too blame. It's either different deck chairs in certain places or risking guys who were underdone. Probably the biggest concern was the lack of leadership, confidence, structure falling away under stress rather than the plan. Some of that is fatigue playing in a swamp in early March. But our senior players when the pressure was really on at the start of the last quarter all decided to take turns trying to be the freaking heroes rather than trusting their team mates taking simple options. And it starts with the captain, quickly followed by the vice captain and the supposed next captain in Lever isn't far off either.6 points
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We have not played well in humid, slippery conditions since Roos/Goodwin took over. (We have struggled in Darwin, Cairns, Brisbane and Gold Coast.) My theory is that the slippery ball takes away the aerial strength of Max and our intercept defenders. Plus our midfield is not skilful and overuses the ball to exit stoppages. The team selection was poor last night, with too many midgets. We need to place a greater value on small forwards who can compete in the air. The game has gone past players like Spargo and Laurie, who are hopeless in the marking contests, and not quick. We need Woewodin and Tholstrop to come on. Oliver looks too heavy and lacked pace. Schache just isn't urgent enough or strong enough. Howes looks good and will be a player. Windsor did some great things and will get better but is still really a 2025+ prospect. I am often critical of Tomlinson, but he played a good game. We can still win the flag this year, but we will need everything to go right.6 points
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I'll wait and see the next month or so unfold, but that was as bad as that Essendon game last year, which was probably our worst game since that Port game in 2020. It's hard to say we're in strife after one game, but if we have any more games like that any time soon, we are. Really insipid. It started with poor goal kicking, then fumbles, and then getting bashed up around the contest. So that's losing at our 1 wood. Laurie, Sparrow, Chandler, Rivers all horrible tonight. Schache, well, we know what we're getting there. Ball movement and forward craft completely absent. That has to be forward and senior coaching. You can't kick 25m out to the hot spot and think that's going to work, when we've had that precise strategy not work for us for 3-4 years now. We don't have a gifted pack marker like Curnow, JVR is okay, but he's better 1v1. I thought Max's second half was dreadful though and when he has a tactic work against him, he's so slow to react. Grundy gave him a bath, even McLean beat him up when he went in there. No idea what to take from this. Not much good, that's for sure.6 points
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Clarry completely gassed by the end. Not his best game tonight but still pretty serviceable. 29 disposals and 6 clearances off bugger all preseason and other issues to overcome is a strong effort from a champion. Chin up Clarry!6 points
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I think we have found one 'positive' from the night. Please remember to self-isolate as much as possible, keep your fluids up and manage the symptoms. Do not return to your residential care home until you have been at least three days without symptoms.5 points
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We need a larger sample. This game was frustrating but we all know we suck in the wet/slippery conditions. It’s never as good or bad as it seems. The way everyone’s carrying on feels bigger than losing by 20 points interstate. Surely by now we all know the season is long and a lot happens over 6 months. It’s not like we have nothing to work with.5 points
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I have to put my hand as one that overestimated the Carlton praccy performance. and I'm probably overreacting to last night as well. lets see how we go over the next month. Serve up more of the same and I will start asking serious questions of the coach and some of the senior players.5 points
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Hmmm, understudy? 2 Copelands, 2 AA jumpers, yeah this guy is a complete novice! I don't know if Grundy's tactic at the centre bounce is a good look for the game, I thought that they had to stay on the other side of their line until the ball had been bounced, he was running at the player and not even looking at the ball at times. But he played ok, Gawn was ok too. I don't like the hits behind play Gawn still gets without penalty. People need to get a grip, one game in basically tropical conditions. We looked better in the first half than Sydney, yet couldn't score, they can address that through the week. We looked less competitive I thought after half time, yet we kicked 3 goals, and only trailed by 2 points. Ran out of steam in the last. Windsor looked good, Howes looked good after a couple of shaky possessions. Not a night for tall forwards on either side. but both sides struggled to score fluently until Sydney had that patch in the last.5 points
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No goals, or little else, from 3 small forwards Sparrow is too slow Max was outsmarted by Grundy Rivers’ kicking has gone down the crapper Schache would have to be the meekest, low energy big man in the comp. Levers turnovers were shocking. May was one of the few that looked like he gave a - you know what. Howes and Windsor very promising. ’’5 points
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I just did/was. But you make a fair point. There were plenty of others who played worse.5 points
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Totally correct! The most incompetent thing I have ever seen was not selecting him in last years finals! Just totally negligent and costly!5 points
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Not sure fwd cohesion was the issue tonight — we got beaten at the coal face and on the outside in strange conditions, that rendered Max redundant and gave Grundy the best of chances to shine. We lacked the game turners that can make something or of nothing, with Trac off a little and fumbly, Kos would’ve been a MASSIVE advantage given how clean and quick he is but that’s footy. I took solace in May performance, Fritta overcoming recent mini-yips is huge & I think Howes was superb, composed and showed PLENTY. Clarry better for run, overall we will know much more after next week I feel!5 points
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I think that the posters who say "Max should be ashamed" are disgusting. No doubt he was beaten by a very good player who we had to let go of because having two no1 rucks didn't work. But Max tried his heart out as he always does. He is a champion and will bounce back. One thing is worrying, though: he does not handle rough treatment very well. He is simply not built for it. Mason Cox has known this for years, and obviously other teams are catching on. To me, that means we HAVE to have a stronger backup. I don't know anything about Fullarton. Schache is not the answer. I think it means we have to bring back TMac, as he is certainly strong.5 points
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I agree with this. McVee needs to come into the middle for Salem now that Bowey's out for a stint imv. Salem just doesn't have the burst speed to play anything but a small cameo (if needed) with minor minutes in the middle. Mind you the burst speed appeared to be missing from pretty much everyone bar McVee & Windsor tonight. Looked like most had concrete boots on whereas a fair percentage of Swans were the opposite out of congestion. Lets not sugar coat it. That was a worrying performance. Apart from the lack of speed out of congestion, the fumbles, losing the ground ball geta, only 3 comtested marks (i think!?) and the forward woes.... it was also the ease with which they broke away from comgestion and the ease with which they broke us in the last that really worried me. We alao had no one that was capable of going with Blakey off HB and he's been their 1 wood and doing this for 2 seasons now. How that was not covered in the pre-match prep / selection table is mind boggling!!??? We made sure it didn't the last few times we played them. Was last night's performance a true reflection of where this list is at or does this team just comtinue to suck in any sort of wet/greasy conditions ie; most night games! and a number of winter day games?? I guess we'll know in about 5 to 6 weeks.5 points
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The club treated Grundy deplorably. Sang him a sugary song to get him here and then completely gave up on him halfway through the season. Leaving him out of the finals was the final insult. Played tonight like he'd had Gawns picture on the bathroom mirror all pre-season. What concerns me the most is the message that sends to other players we try to entice to the club in future. If things aren't quite clicking you could be frozen out real quick. Does that come under the culture category? I dunno. But it aint a good look.5 points
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That’s not an out. It was humid but one week from summer, Melbourne has had the same. I’m very frustrated with coaching. All the same issues again. Remember Sydney had their three big bodied midfielders out. Yet only Viney - as usual - made a stand. I remember reading that the coach wasn’t too bright and is intimidated by smart people. Something about that rang true after two straight sets exits and same issues - again tonight. I do love the Dees and dream of success again. But I fear an awesome list i being/has been squandered by a coaching group that’s not really up to today’s standards. it would be my happiest moment to be proved completely wrong. Tonight was super poor guys. No excuses. I watched it and we were trounced. :(5 points
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Were you sitting in a corporate box or something? It's been 86-91% relative humidity all night. All 46 players were glistening with sweat in the warm-up. All 46 players were fumbly for most parts of the game, us just more so.5 points
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Outstanding use of the sub by Goodwin yet again. Billings came across to Melbourne to seek a fresh start and regain some much needed confidence. So nothing surer than our master mind coach starting Billings as sub and denting whatever confidence he gained in the practice matches. We looked unfit and unskilled. The large rehab group throughout pre season was reflective tonight. We badly missed Kozzie’s spark while Sydney didn’t appear to miss their three mids at all.5 points
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