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@Jaded No More this week

you have to feel for the commentators devastated

Love this post I saw on Freo's BigFooty today: "Pick 4 going to Melbourne makes me physically ill. Not even the most pessimistic of supporters last October in trade week could have seen this coming. I thought maybe it could be pick 9 or 10 and that would still be expensive but I could live with that. Jason Taylor and the Dees recruiters must be laughing their asses off at us. We are the gift that keeps on giving as far as Melbourne list management is concerned. If there’s any semblance of pride and anger left in our club we have to try win 3 or 4 more games and push that pick out a bit. Avoidance of ridicule if nothing else"

Can't believe Harmes is getting games. I would have brought Hibberd in and assign Rivers to play a midfield role in place of Sparrow.

How good are Collingwood in discovering Howe as an intercept defender and then trying him as a forward. You never know what you may find playing someone out of position - very brave of them!

What did Tasmania ever do to you?

The sour puss on Cox after being subbed of brings me so much joy😂

More than pick 1! Demonland, a place that forever gives great amusement.

The Petty as a forward experiment is back on - apparently he is a way quicker learner than Grundy in the patterns forwards need to run. Even though he's been injured much of the year, he continues to be rushed back in like he's the messiah - last time it was to show Cameron up down at Geelong, this time it is to show Vlastuin or Grimes or Balta how clever we are with our match-ups. As someone who spent most of last year wanting to see Petty tried as a forward, I saw enough in his early games this season to confirm to me that he actually is a defender - he does not have the peripheral vision, nor the quickness in transition to make it up forward. I am happy to have egg on my face on this one. But please everyone, watch and see what clever plays he makes when he marks or gathers the ball outside the 50m arc and decide for yourself whether he is suited to such link-up work. Unfortunately he is a defender. Love to have seen him get back into form via Casey.

FWIW, I've tried to look at the upcoming draft and noted that once all the F/S and academy picks and possible high compensation for B. McKay our picks will look like this, not necessarily who we pick but our second pick notionally 15 will actually blow out to 21, so pushing for H. Reid should be a priority. Not saying my draft is perfect but wanted to see where our pick 15 falls. The numbers in front of each person's name is from another person's draft as I was too lazy to rewrite all the names. 1 WCE 1 Harley Reid 2 GC 2 Jed Walter GC academy 3 NMFC 6 Dan Curtin 4 NMFC 7 Colby McKercher B. Mckay Compensation 5 HAW 4 Nick Watson 6 GC 9 Ethan Read* GC academy 7 MELB 5 Zane Duursma 8 ADEL 3 Nate Caddy 9 NMFC 8 Ryley Sanders NGA 10 GC 15 Jake Rogers GC academy 11 SYD 12 Connor O'Sullivan 12 WB 11 Jordan Croft WB F/S 13 ADEL 14 Darcy Wilson 14 HAW 16 Will McCabe HFC F/S 15 ESS 10 Mitch Edwards* 16 GWS 18 Ollie Murphy 17 CARL 35 Archie Roberts 18 GEEL 31 Riley Hardeman 19 GWS 24 Harry Demattia 20 STK 43 Will Green* 21 MELB 13 Koltyn Tholstrup 22 NMFC 17 Archer Reid 23 COLL 19 Jack Delean 24 WCE 20 Logan Evans 25 ADEL 21 George Stevens 26 FREO 22 Joel Freijah 27 SYD 23 Will Lorenz 28 MELB 25 Luamon Lual

I'm not so sure it's curtains for BB, nor is it the worst thing to be dropped at this stage. I think they could just as easily be thinking, 'right, his body is not going to hold up for another 8 or 9 weeks, but he could be up and about for 4 or 5. Let's manage him in the lead up to finals, play him in Round 23 and 24, and then he gets the week off before finals, and he plays all the finals.' Lots of water to pass under the bridge just yet.

For the sake of argument, let's say you are right and he is not AFL standard. By that logic Harmes isn't either - or at least based on his performance against Coburg. Even if an AFL listed player doesn't have a great game in the maggos, you can usually see they are above VFL standard. I went to the game solo and watched intently. I thought Spargo didn't have a huge game, but worked super hard all game with his up and down the ground running (whcih is his role). I thought Harmes had just an ok game, and his work rate was was also ok. The difference to my eye is that Charlie clearly looked a cut above VFL level. To be honest, i can't say the same thing of Harmsey. And Dunstan had way more impact in the game than both Spargo and Harmes. And his disposal was generally first class too i thought. I'm no talent scout, but i think Dunstan is def AFL level. The problem for Dunstan is that he is a pure inside mid, extractor type. Libba and Viney are the two such players that come to mind when thinking of the best in that role. Critical players as they win the hard ball and feed it out the runners. But unlike say 4 years ago, clubs can only run with one pure an inside extractor type, with a back up player to give them a chop out, because outside run has become so important. Previously you might have 2 or 3 such players, but teams can't carry more than one such player, partic if a bit slow. We have Viney, with Sparrow as back up. So really Dunstan is back up for Viney. Every club needs an inside extractor now. So i think there is def an AFL spot somewhere for him. In fact i reckon he is exactly the sort of player a club like Freo needs as they are rubbish at winning the hard, contested ball at clearances.

nice one binman. when Hunty left us last year one could posit we were one Jayden Short.

Remember when we were denied a priority pick because the afl stated we had exciting talents such as Kennedy-Harris and Toumpas on our list. Good times.

If they don't replace him, they'll be a player short.

Hope the midfield doesn’t miss Sparrow too much. We’ve lost the only game he’s missed V Port. Harmes to replace him if we’re going like for like, although his senior appearances have been terrible this year. But as they say if you throw a bunch of darts at a board, one is eventually going to land. Glad Tomlinson got another game. We’ve won our last 14 games in a row with the May/Lever/Tomo combo dating back to the last 2 games of 2020. I know the boys on the DL podcast say that May and Lever prefer Petty over Tomo but the raw win/loss stat suggests that this combo works.

Brown being dropped 5 weeks prior to finals is not a good sign for him. I'm disappointed - I really hoped he could get himself going and be the key forward we really need. Either Petty or Smith gets his spot, presumably Petty. IMO, Petty has to make it as a forward because Tomlinson deserves to hold his spot over Petty in the backline. I'm also disappointed that Dunstan can't get a game over Harmes. I feel like we've seen enough of Harmes in 2023 and we had moved past what he had to offer. I hope he proves me wrong, and I can understand the FD being reluctant to bring in Dunstan who hasn't played all year, but I just feel this isn't the right move.

One of them isn’t a sook and a backstabber tho. And only win is a 6 goal premiership winning forward 😂

Personally I'd like to congratulate Carlton for finidng a way to make BT go quiet for a while. Barely a peep out of him. You can feel the other commentators being made uncomfortable, too.

Finally got a bit of time on my hands to see what is happening in the Demon world. Been a busy time for me playing in the sandpit with the grownups. Had a watch of the Crows game and a couple of things really caught my eye. In defence, Tomlinson looked very good and his game was pivotal with May looking a bit off colour. Also think that Rivers game was excellent. I would not be surprised to see him more time in the midfield next season than in defence. He may even pop up on a wing for a bit of time. He has the smarts and speed to burn. I like the way that the midfield is being managed in the game by the coaching staff. A lot of flexibility and a lot of variables to keep the opposition looking both ways wondering what might happen. I also noted the game of JVR when he was relieving ruck, he did not look out of place there and it might be that as much as anything that is keeping Grundy at Casey at the moment. Jackson Mark II? The forward area is its usual mystery box. Fristch goes down and we bring in Melksham and the change looks seamless. No Grundy on the ground and Gawn bobs up and kicks a couple. Chandler a couple and Kossie great in the middle and a couple of goals. If ever we get some consistent games out of a tall forward combination we will have found the magic dust. After a couple of close games this game against Richmond gives us a little pressure release which could be dangerous. I am aware that we are a well structured mature side but we still need to have our collective minds on the game and not let any complacency to slip in. Tough being a selector at Melbourne these days as we have a lot of good options in all areas of the ground and a lot of players putting their hands up. Defence is a solid unit and performing. Tomlinson deserves this game and to continue as long as he holds form. I would start McVee on Martin in the forward line initially and trust the mids to hinder delivery into the forward space. Martin is half a pace slower than he used to be and it would be good for the development of McVee to beat him. Petty for Brown is ok, I would have given Brown one more run there to see if he could get on the end of a few but understand the thinking. We need to get a bit of time for Petty there prior to the finals to see what we can see. it will be interesting to see what will happen when Fritsch gets back. While I would start Oliver every single game that he is fit for, I have feeling that his prolonged absence will be good for us in the longer term as it is giving our other mids a chance to move into some different possibilities. in a lot of ways it has forced the coaches hands to look at different setups. Who would have thought that in Oliver's absence we would move Petracca forward more and have Brayshaw, Pickett, Sparrow and Rivers spending more time there along with Jordon. Speaking of Jordon, with Sparrow out injured, I am looking forward to seeing his game this week. Smith as sub again this week and I would still love to see the coaches game enough to put the trigger when required rather than 5 mins into the final quarter. I feel a good win coming up. Dees by 5 ........ goals

I made the mistake of tuning into SEN this morning and hearing David King call Collingwood a dynasty and Nick Daicos is worth 2 million a year. I'm typing this here, because I shouldn't have to shoulder the burden of this alone Go Blues 🤮

The last game Petty was tried properly forward against Hawthorn when get got injured. 2 goals, 6 marks (2 contested) in 33% game time. With Tomlinson form and the lack of form from Brown surely people get this is worth another look?

An interesting “in” ~ K. Brown, son of Doggy Casey has had some torrid clashes against the Seagulls in recent years so it needs to be at full strength. This team looks quite strong to me.

Hey Picket. is there anyone in our side that you actually like?

The wrong one unfortunately

I sit on the Lachie Hunter wing - as opposed to the southern stand Ed Langdon wing, so watch him close up. Some sublime disposals last week, always thinking steps ahead of oppo. Not afraid of approaching tacklers. Great pick up.

Jayden Short out.

Their last three games are almost as tough as our last three games last season - the cats at the g on the Friday night, the lions (also a Friday night) at marvel and the bombers at the g. On paper, the bombers is the easiest of those games, but it will be a massive crowd and the bombers might be playing for a spot in the eight. We saw last year, with our games against the pies, blues and lions, how high pressure, high stakes, finals like games leading into finals can flatten a team.

That's mean...

Collingwood have looked pretty ordinary.

And on cue Brayshaw starts the interstate, 6 days break, wet night last week narrative

I would cry if I lost a grand 😂

This guy

Little Nicky squibbed a few contests tonight.

All the best to Petty and Harmesy, i hope they do well.

Errr, thanks.

did you BYO saw?

i'd get a game at west coast 🤣 but yeah, dunstan would get a game at a few clubs

Kynan is making his debut for Casey this weekend. Will be good to see him in action.

One thing I am still confused by with Footy is counting possessions and having the ball more means you play well regardless of what you do with it. Pretty sure its the only sport in the world that counts the amount of time you get the ball and that equals a good performance. The commentators sometimes keep counting the times a player gets it! Dunstan is a classic example, he is not a skillful player, is not quick and can not play anywhere else than pure inside mid. He is a great VFL player but is very limited on an AFL level. Everyone calling for him to play just watch the couple of AFL games he played last year. Why is he not selected after multiple 40 touch games? he is not AFL quality. Harsh but true. He couldn't even get a game for the Saints when they had a horrible midfield. If Viney plus others are out though, he is there for cover.

This thread has been a real hoot. Schadenfreude is so satisfying. From my perspective its been worth trading Jackson purely for the joy of laughing at Freo. Life will be a little emptier next season without the death ride. I reckon we should trade another player to Freo or another club this trade period for their future picks so we can keep this death riding show on the road.

Really happy they stuck with Tommo this time.

I can dispute it. I don't agree with a lot of what David King says but agree with this "The most overrated stat and most overused stat in the history of any reporting regarding AFL footy is kicking efficiency.". The perception of Petracca and Oliver 's kicking is set by our forward setup and plan which is risk averse and static. Occasionally our forwards get on the move, but that's a rarity compared to Collingwood. We constantly either dump long or take risky 50m kicks over the heads of interceptors trying to hit someone standing still or running away from the ball. It looks terrible and gets intercepted a lot, but Stafford and Goody are the ones you should be critiquing. For Trac and Clarry the only fair comparison is to compare those kicks to everyone else trying the same kick. Liam Crowhurst is an analyst who did that. The graph below is from another thread but compares each Melbourne players kicks with every other kick of the same type (same position, same difficulty), and what the score outcome was. The Y axis is how difficult and risky the kick is. The x axis is the comparison of individual players against the AFL average. So our "ball butchers" all take kicks at the high end of the risk/reward spectrum (which I argue is due to our gameplan going i50). They all get better outcomes than average. Nick Daicos, who has unbelievable foot skills, sits right on the average for the types of kicks he tends to take (almost identical to Angus Brayshaw). Considering a lot of Daicos's work is in the back half that is fine. But when we are on the move and creating space i50, Trac and Clarry are fine and the butcher problem seems to disappear (2021 finals is a great example).

In fairness $1 is probably fair value for the product they are selling.

Like us in 2019, Freo are in a rebuilding phase - players in for surgery early , experimenting with players in new roles, trying new strategies, giving some young players a run, working out who to cut etc etc. Clever, as its not really tanking as such, but has the same benefit of ensuring a high draft pick to bring in a gun or package up draft picks to say to do what we did and trade in a player of Ed Langdon's quality to fill a clear need and a grab a second round gem like Bowey. Well played Freo. Oh, hold on. I think I've got that wrong. The dees get all the same benefits of our 2019 season, but none of the pain of finishing 17th - and in addition to freo's first and second round draft pick, we get our own first and second round draft pick! Sorry, not sorry Freo. If it is any consolation Freo, i will be forever grateful and you will always have special place in my heart for the joy you have brought dees fans. Also, as further consolation my purple friends, pick four has terrible record of producing decent players. Oh, hold on. I think I've got that wrong. Nick Daicos went at four in the 2021 draft as did George Wardlaw in 2022. But don't fret my little anchors, both have probably hit their ceiling. And yes, we might trade up to get the most promising forward in the draft for many a year, but again don't let the angst overwhelm you - number one draft picks have mixed record of going on to be superstars. And whilst a forward line featuring JVR, Jefferson and Reid is simply a mind blowing thought, it is a few years away from being a reality, which gives you, my darling dockers, several seasons of fully bottoming out to grab some high draft picks you can actually keep (unless of course Bell decides to trade them for English because you need an elite ruck with Darcy heading East because Bell brought in a young, not yet proven ruck to take his minutes and salary).

It's the most straightforward explanation though and is fully consistent with how MFC operates following AFL rules e.g. Jordon not coming on in the 21 GF. Why say "Goodwin just playing the media with naming him each week." when there's a simpler more obvious explanation?

I am hoping to see: Hibberd for Sparrow; Rivers play midfield Smith for Wowoedin Petty for Brown Wowoedin sub

The cream on top will be if WC can knock them over...and it is possible. It will be WC's GF.