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Here's my updated phantom draft from last week, with round 3 as well now. I've still got us taking the same players, as well as Winder in the 3rd round. I'll have a short writeup of our picks below phantom draft. I'll be making more updates to it as it gets closer to the draft. ROUND ONE 1. Adelaide – Logan MacDonald (WA) – key forward 2. Western Bulldogs (NGA) – Jamarra Ugle-Hagain (VIC) – key forward 3. North Melbourne – Elijah Hollands (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward 4. Sydney – Denver Grainger-Barrass (WA) – key defender 5. Hawthorn – Riley Thilthorpe (SA) – key forward/ruck 6. Gold coast – Will Phillips (VIC) – inside midfielder 7. Essendon – Tanner Bruhn (VIC) – inside midfielder 8. Sydney (NGA) – Braeden Campbell (NSW) – balanced midfielder/small forward 9. Essendon – Archie Perkins (VIC) – balanced midfielder/general forward 10. Essendon – Zac Reid (VIC) – key defender 11. Port Adelaide (NGA) – Lachie Jones (SA) – general defender 12. Adelaide – Heath Chapman (WA) – general defender 13. GWS – Nik Cox (VIC) – key defender/utility 14. North Melbourne – Oliver Henry (VIC) – medium utility 15. Fremantle – Finlay Macrae (VIC) – balanced midfielder 16. GWS – Nathan O’Driscoll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender 17. Collingwood – Brayden Cook (SA) – outside midfielder/general forward 18. Collingwood (NGA) – Reef McInnes (VIC) – inside midfielder/general forward 19. GWS – Caleb Poulter (SA) – balanced midfielder/general forward 20. Richmond – Tom Powell (SA) – inside midfielder 21. Melbourne – Jack Carroll (WA) – balanced midfielder/general defender 22. Brisbane (NGA) – Blake Coleman (QL) – small forward 23. Sydney (NGA) – Errol Gulden (NSW) – small forward/balanced midfielder 24. Melbourne – Bailey Laurie (VIC) – small forward/balanced midfielder 25. Hawthorn (NGA) – Connor Downie (VIC) – outside midfielder/general defender 26. GWS – Jake Bowey (VIC) – small forward/outside midfielder 27. St Kilda – Zane Trew (WA) – inside midfielder ROUND TWO 28. Adelaide – Zavier Maher (VIC) – inside midfielder 29. Adelaide – Zac Dumensy (SA) – outside midfielder/general defender 30. Gold coast – PASS 31. Fremantle (NGA) – Brandon Walker (WA) – general defender 32. Melbourne – Kaine Baldwin (SA) – key forward 33. GWS – Eddie Ford (VIC) – general forward/inside midfielder 34. North Melbourne – Sam Berry (VIC) – inside midfielder 35. Fremantle (NGA) – Joel Western (WA) – small forward 36. Essendon (NGA) – Cody Brand (VIC) – key defender 37. Richmond – Jackson Callow (TAS) – key forward 38. Gold coast – PASS 39. Carlton – Corey Durdin (SA) – small forward 40. North Melbourne – Jack Ginnivan (VIC) – small forward 41. Adelaide (NGA) – Tariek Newchurch (SA) – small forward ROUND THREE 42. Hawthorn – Max Heath (VIC) - ruck 43. Hawthorn – Luke Edwards (SA) – general defender/balanced midfielder 44. Carlton – Henry Walsh (VIC) - ruck 45. Hawthorn – Connor Stone (VIC) – general forward 46. Richmond (F/S) – Maurice Rioli Jnr (NT) – small forward 47. Melbourne – Isiah Winder (WA) – small forward/utility 48. Geelong – Shannon Neale (WA) - ruck 49. GWS - PASS 50. Brisbane – Liam Kolar (VIC) – key forward/wing 51. Western Bulldogs – Charlie Lazarro (VIC) – small forward/inside midfielder 52. Port Adelaide – Chris Walker (WA) – medium forward Pick 21 - Jack Carroll Carroll is a classy 187cm inside/outside midfielder or half back who has been likened to Hugh McCluggage in the way he plays. It's probably 50/50 whether he gets to our first pick but I'm fairly confident the guys in the picks above suit their teams needs. Nevertheless Carroll would be an incredible get at our first pick who has pace (3.018 20m sprint), has good agility (8.67 seconds agility test), can jump (88cm vertical leap), and possess' a lethal left foot kick. He also is a very courageous player who isn't afraid to use his good overhead marking to go back with the flight of the ball, or crash open a pack despite his light frame of 76kg. He also doesn't turn 18 until December so there is plenty of room for development. Next year he'd be a fair chance to slot in on a half back flank in round 1 next to his ex East Fremantle teammate Rivers (also played footy with Jacko too), which his footy smarts, ball use, and physical tools should allow him to play early on. Pick 24 - Bailey Laurie I have us looking for a small forward with our second bid where we'd bid on Coleman from Brisbane and Gulden from Sydney but eventually ending up with 179cm high half forward Bailey Laurie who has been likened to Toby Greene or Zak Butters in the way he plays. He isn't overly explosive for a small forward but Laurie carves up the opposition with ball use, agility, smarts, and decision making. Laurie has the stamina (6:24 2km time trial) to work high up the ground where he always makes the best decision going inside 50, whether that's hitting up a lead or going for goal himself. Laurie has a tendency of knowing where the ball is going to drop in marking contests, and is a keen tackler when the ball is on the ground where he uses his work rate to harass defenders. Laurie likely would've spent a lot of time in the midfield this year which he is prolific by hand and foot and has great smarts around stoppages. There is a very high chance that Laurie will be available at one of our first 2 picks, and potentially at our second round pick. Will be another challenger for a round 1 spot where he will be competing with Spargo for that second small forward spot. Pick 32 - Kaine Baldwin This may be a little higher than some people expect but I think it's highly unlikely Baldwin be available at our next pick. On talent Baldwin is top 10 in this year draft which 2 years ago he was said to be the best key forward in this draft, however since he has done 2 ACL's on the same knee so there is obvious concerns about how his body will hold up. As a player Baldwin is a 193cm CHF who plays like Jesse Hogan (prime Hogan), but I liken him to Mitch Georgiadies who was in a similar situation to him at last years draft. Baldwin's best asset is his contested marking where he is very crafty 1v1 and can take towering packs marks. He also has an enormous engine which he uses at CHF to work really high up the ground where he gets involved in a lot of link up play and is a great kick going inside 50. He's very clean at ground level and was very quick off the mark pre-injury. Baldwin will likely go somewhere in the second round due to their being not much depth for key position players in this draft. He is the definition of a high risk/high reward player who will be given time to get his body right and develop which he can then look to break into the team when guys like Ben Brown, Tom MacDonald, and Max Gawn (Jackson moving into the ruck) get older. Pick 47 - Isiah Winder I have us biding on Rioli Jnr but then taking the 180cm Isiah Winder who plays like Sydney Stack. Winder who is touted to go in the third round could be one of the biggest steals of the draft which he has senior experience for Peel Thunder and boasts an enormous amount of X-Factor. Winder finished top 5 in every single test at the WA Combine (92cm vertical jump, 2.873 seconds 20m sprint, 8.18 seconds agility test) and is one of the best kicks in this years draft which he accurately weights his passes to his targets whether that is a spear or a chip pass. Winder can also play all around the ground either as a small/medium forward or defender, or in the midfield as well. Winder has all the talent of a first rounder but is projected to go later due to his lack of defensive work/appearing to become disinterested when the ball isn't near him at times. Winder would be a big round 1 bolter next year which I think he would be best suited to step in as a small/medium defender where he'd provide excellent ball use and speed off half back. Overall With our 4 picks we've added 3 small/medium runners with good pace and excellent ball use which is something we desperately need, as well as a long term key forward. All three of Carroll, Laurie, and Winder would be ready to play round 1 and could have an immediate impact. Funnily enough all three of those players can play as inside midfielders, saying that though if they were to play as an inside midfielder long term they would add something very different to what we currently have in our mix. Saying that Baldwin could well be the best player of the lot, and ultimately be a top 5 player from this draft if he can get back to his best form from his 2 ACL's surgeries

Just announced. Five Demons sign on for 2021 Bedford and Jordon stay senior, Lockhart promoted to senior list, Chandler and M Brown stay rookies.

Ultimately I think it would have been harsh to delist chandler/Bedford given the lack of VFL this year. Whether they’ll make it is another question but happy they get another chance

I heard they are offering him a contract of 650k for the first seven years and then 4 million a year for the final two.

I’m hearing at this stage that Petracca is ‘flighty’.

Don't give up your day job, norm.

Is it just me or are these completely unnecessary threads increasing in frequency over the last few years?

Could I suggest that the thread title have a question mark to minimise the risk of us collectively having kittens.

Let’s face it Mr Bitters - we are the only two here worth reading... and you’ve been off the boil lately.

Life was so less stressful when we were completely rubbish and nobody tried to poach our players through free agency ??‍♂️

His purple patch this year came when Jackson was sharing some of the load. Once LJ was injured he had no help and his form dropped away. Let’s see how he goes in 2021 when BB takes the best defender. I’ve reservations as well but I think his output will improve with BB on aboard.

Vinyl never went away and is now fast becoming a very big selling point in this age of digital music sourcing... people want something tactile again. About a year ago I helped at my friends' record shop that deals probably 90% vinyl (the rest being a few CDs, posters, music books and videos), while they went to Canada for a month, and business was quite brisk. As a mark of it's popularity, it has been supported by music industry doyens such as Glen A Baker and Stuart Coupe who have voluntarily attended in store promotions and quite regularly do their record shopping there. Hopefully this link works... a few photos that I took on one such occasion: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.2248161025219168

Ah 1997... A. Yze streaming down the wing on a Saturday night to ice a comeback win against Richmond. Stynes getting into Jeff White’s face in the last game against Freo with the speculation of us using our pending early pick on him in the upcoming draft to make them likely future teammates. Taking down the reigning premiers in round 1, as well as putting Carey out till round 13 with a serious shoulder injury (courtesy of Sean Charles?). And beating Carlton - always nice. I also remember hearing that it was the only time in AFL/VFL history that a team won the first and last game of the season and also scored the wooden spoon. If true that’s elite level mediocrity!

Considering our entire squad will be out of contract over the next 5 years maybe we should just live in a perpetual state of anxiety.

Few random thoughts. Last year our draft documentary highlighted our surprise as top 10 fancy Devon Robertson drifted outside of the first round. Our efforts to trade up to the opening pick of the second round to secure him revealed itself to be futile with teams offering future firsts to get it done. With an unknown group such as this one that potentially could see a large variation between club rankings, we are potentially well placed to pick someone we rate in the top 10 despite our first live selection likely to be in the early 20's. Likewise, we are in a fairly powerful position of taking our preferred player and selling pick 19 for a future pick or combination of picks to a team that may want to get into the first round. Collingwood is the obvious example with an already stated desire to add another selection with perhaps added incentive if McInnes hasn't been bid on. Outside the top 5 players, it wouldn't surprise me to see some "bolters" picked earlier than expected and to see a couple players slide further. Well, slide from the best educated guesses we can come up with at this stage anyway. With reduction in list sizes, reduced draftee exposure and some clubs not taking multiple picks, I wonder if we're going to see a larger emphasis on needs than talent earlier than we are accustomed. Conversely the opposite may be true and clubs might want to mitigate risk and take players with best evidence of talent as a means for projecting likely success. I'm finding this draft genuinely fascinating. Finally, Taylor is not afraid of selecting a player from left field. I'd imagine we'll see that yet again, perhaps even with one of our early selections.

I’ve been trying to reverse engineer Melbourne’s approach based on what we can see. This is what I think it is. List management is a multi year discipline and includes contracts, drafting, trading, free agency, current list development projections, junior footballer development projections and finally industry assumptions (e.g. salary cap increases). There are a hell of a lot of assumptions and guesses in there. As time progresses assumptions become less risky as you learn more. Melbourne appear to want to position themselves where they hold the least risk (i.e. highest confidence on likely outcomes) and away from high risk. They engineer this by looking for market imbalances - which is often enabled by the bidding system which means different clubs place significantly different value on the same pick. You see this in securing proven players for identified needs (Langdon, Tomlinson which hasn’t worked out but still illustrates the point) which is not certainty, but close to it. You see this in the willingness to trade out of the following year’s draft (lots of uncertainty about junior players, order of draft picks, future development of the current list and therefore future gaps) and into the nearest draft where there is less uncertainty. Only to repeat that the next year. You see it in targeting very specific players like Pickett and then using pick swaps that are win-win to secure that targeted player, but also not over pay. Not a bullet proof approach as pick 1 is the only way to secure who you want for sure. It’s quite a sophisticated approach and requires the confidence to be seen to “pay overs” by some commentators and not get spooked. I think this contrasts to an Essendon, who appear to go down the flashy messiah signing, and bravado approach that requires every trade to be “I win, you lose”. I’m happier with Melbourne’s approach.

treloar ?

Said this before, will say it again. We have a successful 2021, sure clubs will come knocking but there will be no reason to move. We have years like the last 2 and we can kiss goodbye to Trac and Oliver. The ball's in our hands ladies and gentlemen...

Why bring this up now? Sick of this #*&@ every year, lets just give a rest.

My point is that it is a dynamic situation, and if the ball is coming your way you will go for it, without having to think "am I crossing an arbitrary line". Totally out of the spirit of our game.

There’s no point worrying about what Trac may or may not do in 2 years’ time. Coaching and game plan are the immediate concerns for me. If we get our act together and are successful on the field then contract extensions will take care of themselves. If not then our best players might leave as is their right under free agency.

Given we have three picks in this draft that all occur before we took Rivers last year, and the gun Rivers appears to be... I’m confident JT will find us some real value in this draft.

The club has tried unsuccessfully to convince Cedric Cox that we like his talents and could guarantee him 2 years. Complicated situation with family in remote Halls Creek.

Our two options to get rid of 1 of our picks so that we satisfy list spots is to trade up or trade for a future pick. To trade up these are options (I didn't consider anything higher than Essendon since they turned down Brisbane's two first rounders for one of their first rounders in the trade period): * Adelaide pick 9: Adelaide already have 5 picks in the first 2 rounds, plus some academy boys, so it's highly unlikely they'd want to bring in more picks * GWS multiple first rounders: The Giants have 5 picks in the first 2 rounds too, I highly doubt they will be looking for more picks * North Melbourne pick 11: this would be our best candidate as they have recently delisted a ton of players and are looking to rebuild, they currently have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds. We could try offer one first and our second but it would probably take our two firsts to get it done. * Fremantle pick 12: Freo is in a pretty comfortable position to take their first rounder and two academy boys, don't see why they would budge from that as a later pick might get stalled up by an academy bid anyway. I think Macrae would definitely be there at North's pick, as would Jack Carroll. Others who might be there would be Perkins, Chapman, and Henry. Our other options is to trade one of our picks for a future pick, come draft night I think Collingwood would be a good chance to trade their future first for one of our first rounders if there's someone on the board at our pick that they really rate.

I am here already and have been sitting here talking to myself, with no one listening.

Check your arithmetic! It is deespicable! The metric equivalent to the old imperial 6 foot is 182.88 cm rounds off to 183 cm in whole numbers. That may explain the inordinate number of the 'vertically challenged' on our list!

Also throw in Austin Bradtke as a Category B rookie.

Our draft picks are 18, 19, 28 and 50 (89 used to promote Lockhart and he is counted as a draftee pick by the AFL). After the latest contract signings we have 35 senior players (incl Lockhart) We then have a max of 3 vacant spots going into the draft. This means we cannot use pick 50 so it will need to be packaged eg with 28 and swapped for a low 20's pick. Or some other combo depending on how many players we want to draft. It was reported that mfc will take 3 draftees. If it is assumed Lockhart is one of those 3 draftees we aren't planning to use pick 28 at the draft (and will keep a list spot vacant) and it becomes 'surplus'. Some possibilities: package 19 (or 18), 28 and 50 for a mid low teen pick (altho there will be a lot of competition for mid-teen picks). if we can't do that convert 28 and 50 to a 2021 future pick So we aren't finished with pick swaps, yet!

I’ve no issues with Judd turning down the Demons. We were a rabble at the time. I reckon I would have done the same. I don’t like the way he used the club for leverage. I would not have done that. Childhood loyalty matters to me.

So Richmond had 19 under 184cm on their list and by my count 11 in the Premiership side and you're upset because we have 12 on the list in total? Viney and Langdon are midfielders. Sparrow and Baker are their back ups. 2 inside, 2 outside. That's fine. Salem will have competition from Jetta, Lockhart and Chandler (played as a defender) for what could easily be 2 spots down back. It might only be 1 of them in the team as we go with a taller backline but 4 guys for 2 spots is reasonable. Same thing up forward, 2 spots, 4 guys. Kozzie, Spargo, Bedford, ANB. I'm more worried if they are good enough than if they are tall enough.

Very disappointed, although given we are talking about list pozzies 33-37, it is hardly crucial. What annoys me, and I've said this before, is that we have a high number of sub 6-footers (less than 184cm) on our list - 12 in all. Obviously some small guys are necessary and very deserving - Richmond had nine of their premiership 22 under 6 feet. But which of Rioli, Castagna, Bolton, Short and Edwards are regarded as slow or without weapons. Then there's workaholics like Lambert, Baker and Graham and their bull in Prestia. Of our 12, only Viney, Langdon, Kossie and Salem are walk-up starts and I'd add Lockhart to that (although the coach wouldn't). That's seven little guys battling for spots and four of them - Bedford, Chandler, Spargo and ANB - are battling for a small forward spot that isn't even a pre-requisite spot given Kossie has nailed down the main one. As I said, it's not a biggie in the overall scheme of things, but one of that four should have been delisted. Imagine the outcry if we have five ruckmen on our list battling for one spot!

and we're all locked and loaded pre draft - happy with all these deals, few boys playing for their future in 21 tho ? https://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/837653/five-demons-sign-on-for-2021

Where we stand: 35 players on the senior list (max 38) 3 on the Rookie A list (maximum 6) 1 on the Rookie B list (max 2) We can have up to 44 players, we have 39, so 5 spots open - 3 senior list (3 draft picks?), and then 2 rookies. But we can just take one player in the draft and then we have hit our minimum number. The minimum list size for each club will be 37, which can be made up by as little as 36 senior listed players and one rookie. To reach 44, clubs can carry 36-38 senior listed players, four-to-six Category A rookies and two Category B rookies.

The opportunity to win a flag trumps boyhood allegiances from what I can see. The chance to wear the red and blue wasn’t a factor when Mr C Judd returned to Melbourne. In fact IIRC he used the Demons link to create some competitive tension and improve his deal with Carlton. What an A**hole.

I can see the Pies asking harder questions about Weideman now that we have Brown. Not Trac.

It could be the reduced sal cap and the way the AFL is implementing it. Even renewing those players we have vacant spots on our playing list to add a DFA and a rookie or two (in addition to the 3 draftees we are reportedly to take). Perhaps the club thinks that unless we can afford a player that will be best 30 then we are no worse off keeping the players we have whose strengths and weaknesses are known.

Petracca will obviously be a target for all sides and he has the emotional element with the Pies. That said, I am sure he loves the MFC players and the club. My take on the Collingwood trading situation is that the Pies put themselves in a hole by backloading contracts to win the flag and then bringing Beams in. This got worse when they agreed to the Grundy deal. To get themselves out of it, they had to either offload contracted players or let Moore, De Goey and/or Mihocek leave. They didn't want that given the importance to their side and De Goey having depressed value given his impending court case. Treloar was seen as a good option to move because they have depth in the midfield and they felt they could fleece GCS out of pick 5 and offload his contract. Things then went awry when he didn't want to leave Melbourne and once you look to move on a player there is no real way to unwind it. The Bulldogs knew they were stuffed and took advantage. They also looked to move on Phillips, who they felt was not best 22 and Hawthorn took them to the cleaners. Stephenson was seen as difficult to coach/soft but I am sure they felt they would get a better return.

Really, I could have sworn everyone said he was too heavy?

Because for a lot on here MFCSS turns them into the ultimate pessimists, with no reason to be.

Think of the thread title being about dietary advice for Petracca. Makes as much sense.

This article on who gets an AFL lifeline states that “Melbourne has re-signed a number of players it is yet to make public including Mitch Brown, Jay Lockhart, Kade Chandler and James Jordon,” and suggests that Toby Bedford is our only player currently in limbo.

That’s a woeful post, you need to find yourself a hobby

This is why to me the only real option is staying at the oval we train at now, increase the size a little which is why we are talking a Docklands size oval not MCG and put the clubrooms/indoor Facities/offices over the outdoor carpark at AMMI park. The only other option is leave the precinct which I don't think the club will do.

Pretty sure he's brother works for a different player management company and doesn't manage Christian?

I'm backing in TMac to turn it all around this preseason and reclaim CHB. Lever to thrive when freed-up as a genuine third tall. Rivers to develop into a pacey wingman/outside mid. Lockhart to build his tank and confidence and lockdown the small defender position. Harmes to return to the HFF and take Petracca's old role, with the occasional run in the middle. Weideman, being released by a stay-at-home Brown, to play further up the ground. Sparrow to cement his spot in the 22 at the expense of Jones, who we may only see when injuries hit (which they 100% will) Brayshaw to play primarily as an inside mid. With further interchange restrictions, Tomlinson to shine as one of our premier runners. He might not be lauded as a star, but he can stay on the field all day and play in any position on the ground. A fit Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Brayshaw, Harmes and Sparrow - all six rotating through the center square to cause headaches for opposition coches. LOCKHART. MAY. LEVER. SALEM. MCDONALD. HIBBERD. LANGDON OLIVER. TOMLINSON. HARMES. WEIDEMAN. MELKSHAM. PICKETT. BROWN. FRITSCH. GAWN. PETRACCA. BRAYSHAW. VINEY. SPARROW. RIVERS. JACKSON.

That's not going to stop players from going to the pies mate. They're a big club. They'll naturally attract good players.

I still think his kicking is underrated. His kicking is mostly solid and I saw him deliver a couple of beautifully weighted 40/50m lace out kicks to leading forwards at Metricon against Essendon in the last game. The problem is he is still susceptible to the odd complete shank when trying to rush and be too cute. Ive said all along once he takes a little more time with the ball, he will go to another level, which he did for a period in the middle of the year. They should be making him watch that vision repeatedly this off season. And if he can find a way to hit the scoreboard more, up close to a goal a game, he would be in the top handful in the comp.

Cal Twomey's article has freo wanting to take 4 picks in the draft. They only have 2 inside 55 at the min(11&32). If we trade 50, 28 and 19 for picks 32 and 11 it may be a great deal for all parties. The points work out exactly the same. Even if we make it 18 instead of 19. We get a much better first round, still get our end of first round/ start of second round and our 3rd pick in 32 is still a very good pick. They still stay in first round or start of second, improve their second round pick and get an extra pick (50) to help them fill list spots. Winner winner.

I have a gut feeling that we will bid on Brisbane's academy prospect Blake Coleman with one of our first round picks, he's a very similar player to Kozzy and would be great for forward pressure and x-factor if a bid wasn't matched. The bid would come much higher than Brisbane would expect so maybe there's a chance they don't match as they would lose pick 25 and they have a few other academy prospects later in the draft. Cal Twomey also mentioned yesterday that he has interest in the late first round which just happens to be where our picks are and JT's love for Kozzy last year I could see him liking a similar player. Another interesting one is Sydney's academy prospect Errol Gulden and whether they'd match a bid if we bid on him. He will be around our range and Sydney's recruiting manager on The Road to the Draft podcast said they were no guarantee to match a bid on him if they thought it wasn't worth it. He's another lively small forward who can play midfield or half back as well. I think we will definitely take a small forward with one of our picks, whether that's Coleman, Gulden, Laurie, Winder, Bowey, etc. One more thing is it'll be interesting to see where our pick 28 falls. There is currently 8 picks in between 19 and 28. However out of those picks in-between our picks, the Bulldogs will certainly lose their pick with the Jamarra bid coming in the top 5, Hawthorn is a chance to lose their pick with a bid for their academy boy Downie expected to come around pick 20 so that is touch and go. As mentioned earlier Brisbane could lose their pick with talk of a bid for Coleman coming in the late first round. Then there is also talk Gold Coast might just not use their second rounder at all because they don't have enough list spots. That would leave just GWS, St Kilda and Adelaide * 2 in between our picks 19 and 28 allowing for us to probably take 3 guys we rate really highly.

I prefer the AFL's more novel approach where they seem to make arbitrary rule changes to see if they work without first understanding; A) the problem they are trying to solve. B) what is causing the problem. C) how the rule change will address the problem. D) any unintended consequence of the rule change that might make the unidentified problem worse.