The year of the Dee

[Little Goffy 12,568]

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I have Collingwood, Carlton Brisbane, GWS, Sydney and Adelaide ahead of us this year.

Now that's some meat we can all chew on!

Adelaide I disagree; they had 17 players play 20+ games in 2023, which is ridonkulus team stability. A 'good' season would see 12. That included all 4 of their over 30yr players; Sloan, Walker, Laird and Smith, which is a handy quartet of veterans to say the least! I think they are at their peak already and will hover for a while, in the competetive range, but not excel.

GWS & Carlton are similar propositions to each other in that they both came good late in the year but haven't quite proven themselves yet. Strange to think that Carlton fans were on the 'sack Voss' bus early in the year. Both teams fluctuate wildly within and between seasons. Either could dominate everything or not even make the 8.

Brisbane are professional competitors with an excellent, balanced and mature list. Only a grand final hangover could explain them dropping very much.

Sydney have all kinds of firepower and flair but they finished 8th for a reason; their record against other finalists includes a win over the early season misery version of the Blues, and a win over the Giants. That's it. They had a 3-ply soft draw, with the Demons and Giants the only top-8 teams they played twice.

Collingwood don't deserve to be allowed to take the field, but their lawyers ensure they'll be back.

 

Melbourne, Collingwood and Brisbane are the core contenders and go into on level standing. Several others may menace if they get momentum going.

[Little Goffy 12,568]

5 hours ago, dl4e said:

We can be a contender alright but I believe it is our last year.

I have consulted all manner of oracles, crow entrails, talking fish and even tried a little bit of alphitomancy (the tastiest form of soothsaying) and can confirm that we will be winning the 2028 premiership as a profound changing of the guard moment after which a collection of heroes of the club will retire and the new generation we are just glimpsing now will mature to their full and carry the flame forward.

This does not exclude premierships between now and then, but 2028 is the confirmed glorious sunset for our current mature wave.

Knowing this fact is why I am always in a good mood.

[BLWNBA 348]

49 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Well, don’t make stoopid comments and I won’t pipe up. Simples, even for you.

Bizarre comment and highly ironic, but then again forums are always the best place to view the vagaries of human existence. 

Maybe learn to contextualise commentary before posting some inane and recalcitrant tripe. 

I never commented on Oliver, I spoke of the team. You quoted my words, so as I said, consider developing the ability to contextualise what they mean.

But please, continue the brave straw man argument. 
 

 

Edited January 2 by BLWNBA

[Palace Dees 2,003]

3 hours ago, gs77 said:

Another good omen is that our last 5 grand final appearances (1960, `64, `88, 2000, `21) were all Summer Olympics years - so too is 2024. 😆

Indeed, we have won 6 GF's in the year the summer Olympics were held. That's 2 more than any other team. We also won in 1940, a scheduled Olympic year, but something else was going on at the time, apparently.  

[WERRIDEE 5,211]

Our 3 most important players are Brayshaw, Oliver, and Petty all have question marks if we can get them fit and firing we have a definite chance for the flag. 

[Kent 2,581]

I fear we have missed our chance with injured older players a game plan that wasn't sustainable and it appears other teams may have gone past us

The eight beckons but i really think that we may fall short a lot needs to go right for us 

6th or 7th is my tip

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,173]

5 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

Our 3 most important players are Brayshaw, Oliver, and Petty all have question marks if we can get them fit and firing we have a definite chance for the flag. 

Whilst Trac and Oliver are our two best players, in my view swap Brayshaw for May and Oliver for Gawn and you have this right. Take out any of those three (May, Gawn, Petty) and we take away weapons that cant be replaced. Petty started to show how vital he is to our forwardline last year before injuries.

We have proven last year we can win without Oliver due to our depth in the contest and ability to start to push others through there. I suggest anything we get out of Oliver in 2024 is an unexpected plus. Even when he plays games he will have had such a limited preseason it will impact his run both ways and ability to get contest to contest. A Trac-less Dees on the other hand is an unknown equation due to his consecutive play. I suggest he would be more missed than Clarry as well. 

 

[praha 10,278]

Winning a flag is tough. It's too high a benchmark to set.

In my opinion, Top 4, and winning a final are our benchmarks. From there if we win a flag then it's a bonus. But making the Prelim should be the minimum goal for the team. Not winning the flag won't be a failure.

[JJR 555]

13 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

I would be very surprised if we’re anywhere near the pointy end and expect us to potentially slide out of the 8. 
 

We’ve been exposed the last two seasons and nothing has ultimately changed over the past three draft/trade/FA periods (I’m not expecting Windsor and/or Tholstrup to take us to the promised land in their first season; this isn’t a comment on their long-term prospects).
 

An ageing list, coupled with off-field immaturity and a soft-underbelly that’s been present since post 2021. What’s not to like? 

Slide out of the 8? Seriously get off the crack pipe.

[BDA 20,052]

1 hour ago, praha said:

Winning a flag is tough. It's too high a benchmark to set.

In my opinion, Top 4, and winning a final are our benchmarks. From there if we win a flag then it's a bonus. But making the Prelim should be the minimum goal for the team. Not winning the flag won't be a failure.

Yep. Secure Top 4 and hopefully have a fit and firing list to choose from in September. 

Edited January 2 by BDA

[BLWNBA 348]

14 minutes ago, JJR said:

Slide out of the 8? Seriously get off the crack pipe.

The same response I received from other posters when I said another straight set exit beckoned for this side halfway through this year. 

[leave it to deever 15,344]

10 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

alphitomancy

Thanks LG

That's a new word for moi.

And a very funny one.

Although I suspect not so much for the suspect.

[leave it to deever 15,344]

16 hours ago, 58er said:

player in my previous post I didn’t even cover was JVR. I can see him having a real breakout year if we get the forward options we have deliberately targeted plus our existing talent all around him. 

He's a great reason to be excited about this years footy.

A fit forward line of Petty, Fritta and a Jvr will be dynamite I reckon.

 

[binman 38,035]

2 hours ago, praha said:

Winning a flag is tough. It's too high a benchmark to set.

In my opinion, Top 4, and winning a final are our benchmarks. From there if we win a flag then it's a bonus. But making the Prelim should be the minimum goal for the team. Not winning the flag won't be a failure.

100% agree. 

Goody has said from the get go that the aim is to build a team that is contention for a flag for many  many years. And that is exactly what they have done. 

To be objective as possible I apply a racing punters lens to the question of how we'll go next season.

In punting the key data point is of  course form - of each individual horse in isolation, and more importantly how the form of each horse compares with its competitors.

In doing form, (good) punters look at historical form and recent form. 

Applying a similar lens to the next afl season then these are the pertinent facts (im conceptualising the 2024 season as a Group one WFA classic like say a cox plate).

Using the last three seasons as a  reference point for historical form to assess the chances of the dees finishing top 4:

- the dees have finished top 4 three times

- the dees have won one flag 

- that is the best 'form' of any team over that period

- the pies are next best with two top 4 finishes and one flag

- next best is the lions with 3 top 4 finishes and one GF appearance 

- swans and port can argue over next best 

So, over three seasons the best three teams based on their records are  in order, the dees, pies and lions. In horse racing parlance they are top 3 rated teams

Looking at recent form (last season):

- after very strong win loss records in the regular season the pies won the flag and the lions made the gf. They were the two best teams in 2023. 

- against the two best teams in the 2023 the dees went 50 50 against both, including a narrow loss against the premiers in the QF

- so if for instance you really rate the pies, on form it is logically inconsistent not to also rate the dees

What about up and comers? In racing there's of course always the possibility of a new star coming along and usurping the current class horses. Are there any such contenders in the AFL?

The historical evidence (another important data point in horse racing) is that it is relatively rare for a team to come from outside the 8 and make top 4 the next season. Not impossible but rare.

That knocks 10 teams out of being a top 4 contender

Of course more common for teams who made the 8 to take the next step and make the top 4.

Can one of the blues, swans, giants or saints make the top 4? Absolutely.

And port can stay in the top 4 too of course (and I think will).

But applying my form equation none of those teams' record over the last three season makes for a compelling argument.

And looking at last season's form only the blues and giants make a strong case for taking the next step and finishing top 4.

On the dees key competitors I largely agree with Little Goffy's excellent assessment.

I really rate the giants and hard to argue with the blues form. So both a chance for a top 4 finish. I can't see swans or saints making it

Port finished top 4 and I think if Hinkley can implement a modern defensive system will do so again. 

Another factor to consider is class. In both horse racing and footy class is more subjective than form (on form the record is the record(.

Personally i would argue we have the best list in the AFL (lions, port, pies, giants next).

And i also think we have the most balanced list of say the top 10 teams in terms of the balance and spread of age and experience (pies, port, giants next).

So in totality what does that mean from a punters form perspective?

The dees are very likely to make the top 4, as are the lions and pies. 

The dees are very unlikely to miss the 8.

I haven't looked at the current betting markets for top 4 and top 8 They would have nothing in the pools and futures betting is a mug's game (they may not even have them up yet).

But they would be the most accurate assessment as the prices are set by the professional analysts bookmakers employ and are yet to be influenced by the market (ie punters betting).

If I was to set a market/price for the dees it would be:

Top 4 finish: $2.50 

Top 8 finish: $1.40 (winx says hello)

[leave it to deever 15,344]

6 minutes ago, binman said:

100% agree. 

Goody has said from the get go that the aim is to build a team that is contention for a flag for many  many years. And that is exactly what they have done. 

To be objective as possible I apply a racing punters lens to the question of how we'll go next season.

In punting the key data point is of  course form - of each individual horse in isolation, and more importantly how the form of each horse compares with its competitors.

In doing form, (good) punters look at historical form and recent form. 

Applying a similar lens to the next afl season then these are the pertinent facts (im conceptualising the 2024 season as a Group one WFA classic like say a cox plate).

Using the last three seasons as a  reference point for historical form to assess the chances of the dees finishing top 4:

- the dees have finished top 4 three times

- the dees have won one flag 

- that is the best 'form' of any team over that period

- the pies are next best with two top 4 finishes and one flag

- next best is the lions with 3 top 4 finishes and one GF appearance 

- swans and port can argue over next best 

So, over three seasons the best three teams based on their records are  in order, the dees, pies and lions. In horse racing parlance they are top 3 rated teams

Looking at recent form (last season):

- after very strong win loss records in the regular season the pies won the flag and the lions made the gf. They were the two best teams in 2023. 

- against the two best teams in the 2023 the dees went 50 50 against both, including a narrow loss against the premiers in the QF

- so if for instance you really rate the pies, on form it is logically inconsistent not to also rate the dees

What about up and comers? In racing there's of course always the possibility of a new star coming along and usurping the current class horses. Are there any such contenders in the AFL?

The historical evidence (another important data point in horse racing) is that it is relatively rare for a team to come from outside the 8 and make top 4 the next season. Not impossible but rare.

That knocks 10 teams out of being a top 4 contender

Of course more common for teams who made the 8 to take the next step and make the top 4.

Can one of the blues, swans, giants or saints make the top 4? Absolutely.

And port can stay in the top 4 too of course (and I think will).

But applying my form equation none of those teams' record over the last three season makes for a compelling argument.

And looking at last season's form only the blues and giants make a strong case for taking the next step and finishing top 4.

On the dees key competitors I largely agree with Little Goffy's excellent assessment.

I really rate the giants and hard to argue with the blues form. So both a chance for a top 4 finish. I can't see swans or saints making it

Port finished top 4 and I think if Hinkley can implement a modern defensive system will do so again. 

Another factor to consider is class. In both horse racing and footy class is more subjective than form (on form the record is the record(.

Personally i would argue we have the best list in the AFL (lions, port, pies, giants next).

And i also think we have the most balanced list of say the top 10 teams in terms of the balance and spread of age and experience (pies, port, giants next).

So in totality what does that mean from a punters form perspective?

The dees are very likely to make the top 4, as are the lions and pies. 

The dees are very unlikely to miss the 8.

I haven't looked at the current betting markets for top 4 and top 8 They would have nothing in the pools and futures betting is a mug's game (they may not even have them up yet).

But they would be the most accurate assessment as the prices are set by the professional analysts bookmakers employ and are yet to be influenced by the market (ie punters betting).

If I was to set a market/price for the dees it would be:

Top 4 finish: $2.50 

Top 8 finish: $1.40 (winx says hello)

Tx Binners.

I just checked Tab and your not far from the mark.

1.55 to make finals.

Equal with Carlton in fourth spot to be final four at $3.

Equal with Carlton in fourth spot to win flag at $ 9.

[sue 8,430]

While I tend to be a bit on the glass-half-full side of things, I'd prefer a few more glass-half-empty posters in place of the couple of glass-completely-empty posters we seem to have.

[binman 38,035]

16 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Tx Binners.

I just checked Tab and your not far from the mark.

1.55 to make finals.

Equal with Carlton in fourth spot to be final four at $3.

Equal with Carlton in fourth spot to win flag at $ 9.

Ta.

In punting parlance, on my assessment $3 for the dees to to make the top 4 is overs.

And $3 for the blues to make top 4 is unders.

And on my assessment $9 for the dees to win the flag is well and truly overs.

I would have us as second favorites, behind the Pies, to the the win the flag at $6.50.

By the by i think we will win the flag. 

[mauriesy 6,790]

This is just a thread for optimists versus pessimists.

[Little Goffy 12,568]

17 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

I would be very surprised if we’re anywhere near the pointy end and expect us to potentially slide out of the 8.

3 hours ago, JJR said:

Slide out of the 8? Seriously get off the crack pipe.

3 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

The same response I received from other posters when I said another straight set exit beckoned for this side halfway through this year. 

Rinse repeat.

 

BLWNBA replied to Gawndy the Great's topic in Melbourne Demons

Dees will miss the top 8.

• September 24, 2022
•  

[Ollie fan 2,133]

3 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

The same response I received from other posters when I said another straight set exit beckoned for this side halfway through this year. 

I'm glad You were able to predict that Petty, Fritsch, Brown and Melksham would all be injured, that we would kick horribly for goal, that Brayshaw would be smashed in a shocking incident and that JVR would be suspended for the second final, because without all of these occurrences happening we would NOT have exited in straight sets.  Nostradamus: move over!!

[Biffen 12,323]

We'll make the GF.

We had a Grundy problem last year not to mention the other.

I think we can sort out the forward line with Roo ,Petty and Fritta good targets.BBB a bonus if fit.

Might see some big improvers such as Sparrow,Spargo ,ANB and Bowey now showing total reliabilty.Riv also.

I don't expect full seasons from Melk and BBB or Tom Mac.

Be nice to have Salem and Fritsch firing all year.

Pickett will be AA material.

Petracca,Gawn and Viney will back up as usual.

Oliver will prove his detractors wrong and sort himself.

One or two new guys should emerge.

We are closer to another grail than it seems.

 

[Roost it far 6,056]

10 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

Our 3 most important players are Brayshaw, Oliver, and Petty all have question marks if we can get them fit and firing we have a definite chance for the flag. 

Our 3 most important players are Petracca, Gawn and May.......I'm in no way saying your 3 aren't important but lose Petracca, Gawn and or May and we're done. As a lifelong Dee's optimist this season leaves me feeling a little flat. I was certain of success last year and those finals hurt more than any others apart from the 87 Prelim. We are responsible for a Pies flag and only a flag will heal my pain. 

Edited January 3 by Roost it far

[leave it to deever 15,344]

14 minutes ago, Biffen said:

Might see some big improvers such as Sparrow,Spargo ,ANB and Bowey now showing total reliabilty.Riv also

Would like to see Rivers in the middle as much as possible this year.

[WalkingCivilWar 31,465]

13 hours ago, BLWNBA said:

Bizarre comment and highly ironic, but then again forums are always the best place to view the vagaries of human existence. 

Maybe learn to contextualise commentary before posting some inane and recalcitrant tripe. 

I never commented on Oliver, I spoke of the team. You quoted my words, so as I said, consider developing the ability to contextualise what they mean.

But please, continue the brave straw man argument. 
 

 

I hope you cut that thesaurus into small pieces before swallowing it. Wouldn’t want you to choke on it, now would we 😘

[BLWNBA 348]

1 hour ago, Ollie fan said:

I'm glad You were able to predict that Petty, Fritsch, Brown and Melksham would all be injured, that we would kick horribly for goal, that Brayshaw would be smashed in a shocking incident and that JVR would be suspended for the second final, because without all of these occurrences happening we would NOT have exited in straight sets.  Nostradamus: move over!!

Okay.