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The Run Home



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Just now, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Agree with you to some point.

We have an atrocious record against Sydney at the MCG (losing to them in 2018 and 2022) but did win our most recent meeting up there at the SCG in 2019 (but did lose to the Pies last year there)

Was thinking more about the fact that after last year's lockdown, the club would be keen to have all of its finals in Melbourne so all can attend.

I agree on the attendance theme from both you and RPFC but it ain't the granny which will be at the MCG and we all want to attend so lets just get there.

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Tonight's loss is devastating, a classic 8-point game against us. A win would have borderline guaranteed top 4.

Beating Carlton is now non-negotiable, but still might not be enough to make top 4 if we then lose to Brisbane. To make top 4 by beating Carlton but losing to Brisbane, we'd need three of the following to happen:

  1. Collingwood loses to both Sydney and Carlton
  2. Sydney loses to one of North, Collingwood and St Kilda and we hold our 2% gap over them, or they lose twice or more
  3. Brisbane loses to one of Carlton and St Kilda and we hold our 5% gap over them, or they lose twice or more
  4. Fremantle loses to at least of the Dogs, West Coast and GWS

Remember, three of those have to happen for us to hold onto top 4 with a loss to Brisbane. So if you think we'll beat Carlton but lose to Brisbane, you are barracking for the Dogs and Carlton tomorrow (also North...but that's not happening).

If Brisbane wins tomorrow, you're then turning your focus to St Kilda beating Brisbane at Marvel. And whoever loses out of Sydney v Collingwood, get around their opponent in Round 23 (either Carlton to beat Collingwood or St Kilda to beat Sydney).

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Top 4 isn’t happening. We will beat the blues and lose to the lions up here. 
 

we will play the dogs or tigers at the G round 1 of the finals, then likely have the pies at the g for the semi if we get through 

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17 minutes ago, Hellaintabadplacetobe said:

Reckon our best result will be to finish 4th and play Cats at the G.

Both Swans n Pies have troubled us for years and they will both fancy their chances against us. 

This.

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At this stage I reckon likely outcomes look like this:

  1. If we beat both Carlton and Brisbane, we'll finish 3rd and play the winner of Sydney v Collingwood in the first final, unless Collingwood wins that but then loses to Carlton, in which case we'll finish 2nd and host Sydney
  2. If we beat Carlton and lose to Brisbane, we'll finish 4th if Collingwood drops both of its games from here and get Geelong at the G, or 5th if Collingwood wins a game and we'll get whoever finishes 8th (Dogs most likely). Assumes Brisbane and Sydney win enough to stay above us.
  3. If we lose both, we'll finish probably 6th and play probably Richmond or Carlton
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Gee this has been an arrogant season from the club, through admin to the coaches and players and down to the supporters. We are heading for a big serve of humble pie.

Absolute nightmare scenario to cop the Dogs in the first final. We will legitimately be putting our season in the hands of the incompetents in yellow, with a very likely 10 vs 25 free kick count. AFL umpires love nothing more than piling on to a narrative, and the whole league will be salivating at the idea that the MFC chokes away a 10 zip season start without a whimper. 

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Finishing top 2 is completely irrelevant now. Gee and Coll are top 2 so any spot in the 4 will have us playing a "home" QF at the MCG.

A lot has to go wrong to not finish top 4. Collingwood are arguably in the best 2-3 teams in the comp and we dominated them for most of the night. We should win our next 2.

Win the first final from 3rd or 4th and it's a different story. A Prelim against Collingwood would be hectic though.

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10 minutes ago, Deenooos_ said:

Finishing top 2 is completely irrelevant now. Gee and Coll are top 2 so any spot in the 4 will have us playing a "home" QF at the MCG.

A lot has to go wrong to not finish top 4. Collingwood are arguably in the best 2-3 teams in the comp and we dominated them for most of the night. We should win our next 2.

Win the first final from 3rd or 4th and it's a different story. A Prelim against Collingwood would be hectic though.

Literally if we lose to Brisbane in the final round regardless of beating the blues or not we will drop out.

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I have Brisbane and Sydney winning out, Pies going 1-1 and us 1-1.

Geelong 18-4

Sydney 16-6

Brisbane 16-6

Collingwood 16-6

Melbourne 15-7

Fremantle 14-7-1

Bulldogs 13-9

Richmond 12-9-1

As others have mentioned, if we can get through Richmond or Bulldogs in week 1, we’ll likely have the Pies (or Geelong) in a packed MCG semi final and then on the road to Sydney or Brisbane for a prelim if we’re still alive.

If we do face Collingwood again I hope we go in as under dogs with the pressure on Collingwood not to go out in straight sets.

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Would like to finish 4th and play Geelong in first final. Besides that what if it turns out to be a filth vs Geelong Grand Final. God help us.

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Top 2 isn’t impossible. The Pies can easily lose the next 2, Brisbane have some hard games and the Swans aren’t guaranteed to beat both teams either. 

It’s still game on.

Even if we only go 1-1, Top 2 or Top 4 is still very possible.

Id love to get the Cats week 1. They’ve had the softest draw and love to choke in the finals.

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14 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I have Brisbane and Sydney winning out, Pies going 1-1 and us 1-1.

Geelong 18-4

Sydney 16-6

Brisbane 16-6

Collingwood 16-6

Melbourne 15-7

Fremantle 14-7-1

Bulldogs 13-9

Richmond 12-9-1

As others have mentioned, if we can get through Richmond or Bulldogs in week 1, we’ll likely have the Pies (or Geelong) in a packed MCG semi final and then on the road to Sydney or Brisbane for a prelim if we’re still alive.

If we do face Collingwood again I hope we go in as under dogs with the pressure on Collingwood not to go out in straight sets.

The dogs game really f'd up our chances at a shot at top 4, such a stupid game to drop. Really disappointing after planting ourselves in top spot at 10-0.... going 5-7 remaining of the year is poor but I think you're too harsh, we will win our remaining 2, we played really well yesterday in all fairness.

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1 minute ago, Deenooos_ said:

The dogs game really f'd up our chances at a shot at top 4, such a stupid game to drop. Really disappointing after planting ourselves in top spot at 10-0.... going 5-7 remaining of the year is poor but I think you're too harsh, we will win our remaining 2, we played really well yesterday in all fairness.

Brisbane have a fantastic record at the Gabba so the odds would suggest they’ll beat us up there.

However, we’re the best travelling side in the league so you may be correct and we  do end up going 2-0 to end the season.

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46 minutes ago, one_demon said:

Looks like we'll be playing either Geelong or Collingwood in the first week of the finals.  Yikes!

We'll bury Collingwood if we meet them in finals. 

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2 hours ago, dl4e said:

Would like to finish 4th and play Geelong in first final. Besides that what if it turns out to be a filth vs Geelong Grand Final. God help us.

Me too.  Best chance of getting a home prelim if we are good enough to beat the Cats.  Yes, its a BIG if.

But it means no Cats in the PF.

If Pies finish second we must finish 3rd of rthe same reason, and hence beat the Lions last game

 

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19 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Tonight's loss is devastating, a classic 8-point game against us. A win would have borderline guaranteed top 4.

Beating Carlton is now non-negotiable, but still might not be enough to make top 4 if we then lose to Brisbane. To make top 4 by beating Carlton but losing to Brisbane, we'd need three of the following to happen:

  1. Collingwood loses to both Sydney and Carlton
  2. Sydney loses to one of North, Collingwood and St Kilda and we hold our 2% gap over them, or they lose twice or more
  3. Brisbane loses to one of Carlton and St Kilda and we hold our 5% gap over them, or they lose twice or more
  4. Fremantle loses to at least of the Dogs, West Coast and GWS

Remember, three of those have to happen for us to hold onto top 4 with a loss to Brisbane. So if you think we'll beat Carlton but lose to Brisbane, you are barracking for the Dogs and Carlton tomorrow (also North...but that's not happening).

If Brisbane wins tomorrow, you're then turning your focus to St Kilda beating Brisbane at Marvel. And whoever loses out of Sydney v Collingwood, get around their opponent in Round 23 (either Carlton to beat Collingwood or St Kilda to beat Sydney).

Correction to this post - only two of the these things have to happen for us to hold onto top 4 by beating Carlton but losing to Brisbane.

In other words, we need two of these sides to win less than 15 games, or get to 15 wins but trail us on percentage.

Fremantle currently leading the Dogs by 4 goals is close to ruling the Fremantle option out - they only have to lose one game but will they lose to either of those two bottom 4 sides?

However, puts a huge dent in the Dogs making finals. If we finish 5th and the Dogs miss out, we might get Carlton or even St Kilda in 8th instead.

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