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The Run Home



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14 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

 

I agree they shouldn't be taken lightly and I won't be confident at all when we play them. They are 8-1 in games decided by 12 points or less, which is an amazing record (don't get me wrong). They have done very well to win all those close games but there's an element of luck in winning close games.

They gave away a free kick to Essendon in front of goal inside the last minute. If they kick that goal, Collingwood lose and they're 7th. I don't want to take anything away from them subsequently going coast-to-coast and Elliott kicking an incredible goal after the siren, but they weren't in control of the Essendon shot at goal.

I'm not saying they're not a good side, I just think that 13-5 and 4th flatters them a little bit considering their % is only 106.

Absolutely, there is certainly an element of luck in games. 

But you have to make the most of your luck (for example, the Pies were inaccurate against us, and we failed to capitalise). 

But eventually luck does turn, so here's hoping they have used up their tickets - and when we face them we make the most of ours, take our chances and put (+ keep) the foot down.

After a number of recent, painful losses to the Pies (last year's Bucks farewell, the one that cost us a finals appearance, this year etc.), I would VERY much love to see us bury the Pies and send them  back to reality, and further down the ladder.

But we need to know they had our measure this year, and they'll know they can do it again.

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13 minutes ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

Absolutely, there is certainly an element of luck in games. 

But you have to make the most of your luck (for example, the Pies were inaccurate against us, and we failed to capitalise). 

But eventually luck does turn, so here's hoping they have used up their tickets - and when we face them we make the most of ours, take our chances and put (+ keep) the foot down.

After a number of recent, painful losses to the Pies (last year's Bucks farewell, the one that cost us a finals appearance, this year etc.), I would VERY much love to see us bury the Pies and send them  back to reality, and further down the ladder.

But we need to know they had our measure this year, and they'll know they can do it again.

And last year, they will probably win that coming game. They are playing like we were last year with lots of confidence which is something we have shown little of this year. 

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4 hours ago, JTR said:

I was just about to post the same thing. 

Here is quick worst case scenario if we lose every game and all other results go as you'd expect...

                        W  L  D
 1. Geelong            18  4  0  137.8%
 2. Brisbane Lions     17  5  0  126.4%
 3. Collingwood        17  5  0  106.2%
 4. Fremantle          15  6  1  119.1%
 5. Sydney             15  7  0  126.7%
 6. Carlton            14  8  0  112.8%
 7. Melbourne          13  9  0  120.7%
 8. Western Bulldogs   13  9  0  111.1%
 9. Richmond           11 10  1  111.2%
10. St Kilda           11 11  0   97.1%
11. Gold Coast         10 12  0  104.8%
12. Essendon           10 12  0   92.5%
13. Port Adelaide       9 13  0  101.7%
14. Hawthorn            8 14  0   91.6%
15. Adelaide            7 15  0   87.7%
16. GWS                 5 17  0   85.0%
17. West Coast          2 20  0   58.7%
18. North Melbourne     2 20  0   56.2%

QF1: *GEELONG* v Fremantle
QF2: Brisbane Lions v *COLLINGWOOD*
EF1: *SYDNEY* v Western Bulldogs
EF2: Carlton v *MELBOURNE*

SF1: *FREMANTLE* v Sydney
SF2: Brisbane Lions v *MELBOURNE*

PF1: Geelong v *MELBOURNE*
PF2: *COLLINGWOOD* v Fremantle

 GF: *MELBOURNE* v Collingwood

😎

A great pice of work JTR and I came up with the same results points-wise , but added in the option to predict the points margins.

 

Under our scenarios it has the dogs winning a few more to get 52 points, and Dees losing all and it will only take losses of say 4-5 goals and dogs winning by similiar for us to swap positions wiht Dogs to 7th and Dees to 8th on percentage.

Right now I would take that outcome with downside being a SCG final

 

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5 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Yes, realistically we should start favourites against Collingwood and Carlton as well. Collingwood has won a lot of close games so their ladder position probably flatters them somewhat.

 

5 hours ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

Not sure that's exactly right. Collingwood are on the same points as us - plus they smoked us in our earlier meeting.

Plus they have won 3 games vs top 8, compared to our 2. 

AND they are coming in with 9 on the trot - HOT

(One of those wins being against us).

 

5 hours ago, praha said:

They've also lost a few close ones. Wining one or two close ones is fair game. Reality is they consistently hold on and find ways to win. They shouldn't be taken lightly.

If you want to know just got close the pies wins have been...

Screenshot_20220724-181218_Twitter.jpg

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7 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Based on my simulations (50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season), this is what I get for Melbourne's probability of finishing in each ladder position for a certain number of wins over the last four rounds.

image.png.8cc9553769308c3a3773b832f68de5ea.png

Interesting. Thanks. So in determining the probability %, does this model use a particular method for each game? Bookies odds?  For eg I was determining my 3/1 or 2/2 permutations based on many assumptions like Collingwood beating Port & Carlton, Freo beating WB. goes to show that 3/1 is difficult for any team, so it most likely comes with top 2 reward.

The 2/2 is curious, I'd have thought falling out of the top 4 was the most likely, given the ladder % of other teams can catch up to us with easier fixtures of some of our rivals eg Bris/Sydney already are in the 120's

Edited by John Demonic
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Win 2 from 4 and we could get passed on percentage or on premiership points ... a 30/70 chance of that happened

But it's more likely that we'll finish top 4 with a 2 from 4 result (70/30) ... the biggest concern might be Sydney's percentage surpassing ours if they finish level on wins (with us)

Win 3 from 4 and we're assured of a top 4 spot and would likely finish 2nd (maybe 3rd)

Win all 4 and we finish 2nd (maybe 1st) 

Win only 1 from 4 and a top 4 spot almost certainly won't be attained

 

Edited by Macca
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50 minutes ago, John Demonic said:

Interesting. Thanks. So in determining the probability %, does this model use a particular method for each game? Bookies odds?  For eg I was determining my 3/1 or 2/2 permutations based on many assumptions like Collingwood beating Port & Carlton, Freo beating WB etc goes to show that 3/1 is difficult for any team, so it most likely comes with top 2 reward.

The 2/2 is curious, I'd have thought falling out of the top 4 was the most likely, given the ladder % of other teams can catch up to us with easier fixtures of some of our rivals eg Bris/Sydney already are in the 120's

I have a model that rates teams based on past results and the current team ratings are here:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html

The model estimates match win probabilities based on the current team ratings and venue advantage. For example, my model rates Melbourne a 48.5% chance of winning this week. Each week, I simulate the remainder of the season 50,000 times based on those win probabilities. So roughly 48.5% of the simulations will result in a Melbourne win against Fremantle and 51.5% will result in a Fremantle win (although a proportion of matches will end in a draw too).

I do simulate match margins too based on a normal distribution with a mean of the expected margin so it does allow a team with easier matches to increase their percentage, although Sydney does have some ground to make up.

My model doesn't rate Collingwood that highly given they've had so many wins by small margins, so they could potentially outperform my model's expectations and therefore somewhat reduce Melbourne's chances of finishing top 4 in the two win scenario.

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On 7/25/2022 at 1:42 PM, Demon17 said:

Your right BBP but I see the Dogs as the only threat to 8th place if we go 0 - 4.

Tiges and Saints getting there tiny/negligible rsik of occurring.

With Dogs % will be vital and my run of the Predictor was based on worst case like blowouts of 50 points etc.  If we miss by only a few goalseach game, and my hope is that our defence with Lever back gets into some form, then reasonable chance it will work, but as you say 0 - 5 at end of year we should leave the spot to someone.

As @Bring-Back-Powell said though, because the Dogs are already 8th, they’re already in. So someone out of the 8 has to pass us for us to miss. That has to be St Kilda or Richmond. 

So if you’re thinking about whether we miss, either Richmond wins out and gets to 13.5 wins, and we lose out, or St Kilda wins out and gets to 14 wins (and we lose out), or somehow they win 3 games and close the 25% percentage gap (and we lose out). 

It is highly improbable that one of those sides wins all 4 of their remaining games, and we lose all 4 of ours. 

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7 hours ago, praha said:

They've also lost a few close ones. Wining one or two close ones is fair game. Reality is they consistently hold on and find ways to win. They shouldn't be taken lightly.

They’ve only lost one close game, to Brisbane. 

Yes there is some skill to winning close games, but there is also most definitely luck. The bounce of a ball, a free paid/not paid, your opponent missing a set shot, etc. You need luck to win close games and history shows that sides don’t repeat their luck too often. Collingwood is riding their luck to historically ridiculous levels. Power to them, but it is unlikely to last forever, or even for another 8 weeks. 

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11 hours ago, DubDee said:

I reckon we’ll win 2 (Freo and Pies) and make top 4 on %

I honestly think we will win 3-4, even all of them, I truly believe our best footy will come when it matters which is the run home from now. After all, were still 2nd even with the games we shouldn’t of dropped. Were still in a very solid position. 

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For all this talk about us being terrible, 18th for pressure, yada yads, the bookies and punters still love us.

Favourites against Freo in Perth. Comfortable favourites so far against Collingwood.

There's still a lot of faith out there for the Dees.

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19 minutes ago, praha said:

For all this talk about us being terrible, 18th for pressure, yada yads, the bookies and punters still love us.

Favourites against Freo in Perth. Comfortable favourites so far against Collingwood.

There's still a lot of faith out there for the Dees.

They are not as clued in as we are on DL. 😀

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Another thing to consider is how the dynamics of the mental side changes from here on out. 
 

Teams have clearly planned for games against us, either to prove their ability (freo, swans, pies) or get redemption (cats), with most of them playing their best game of the season against us. 
 

In each of the four upcoming games, our opponents will all have something to lose, such as a top 4 spot or even top 8. That changes how freely teams will play against us. Coaches can’t just take huge risks because the consequences may undo all their effort to this point in the season. 
 

It’s easy to throw caution to the wind in round 11 or 12 or even 17 because there’s time to undo a bad game, but not so much at this stage. 
 

Even the cats are coming up against the dogs and saints in what they will see as do or die games for their seasons. There will be a lot of surprises in the next four rounds.  
 

I’m sticking to my earlier prediction of 17-5. I believe the FD strategy and season planning has been building to these last 8 weeks. I anticipate a repeat of the intensity from our game against the Lions on Friday night. 💪

Edited by Stu
Fat fingers
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On 7/25/2022 at 1:00 PM, old55 said:

Of course you'd think that, because if doom is in any way possible then you'll embrace it fervently.

At the time I posted both Freo andd MFC were at $1.92 for the win, right now it's Freo $1.98 and MFC $1.86.

https://www.afl.com.au/fixture?Competition=1&CompSeason=43&MatchTimezone=MY_TIME&Regions=2&ShowBettingOdds=1&GameWeeks=20&Teams=1&Venues=13#byround

 

Careful or you'll be labelled a Pollyanna 😉

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1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

The Doctor’s right, old dee. 

You’d have jumped up to say “no, fact is we only won 2 of those games, last time I checked a draw is not a win”.

Your correct TU. Exactly what I said. I admit most of my mistakes which is fairly uncommon around here. Also if you voice your opinions you will get criticised by some. The majority of those that criticise seldom give an opinion. So be it I am not about to change this side of death. 

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4 hours ago, JJR said:

I honestly think we will win 3-4, even all of them, I truly believe our best footy will come when it matters which is the run home from now. After all, were still 2nd even with the games we shouldn’t of dropped. Were still in a very solid position. 

I like your optimism but we’ve won 3 out of our last 8 and I don’t think we’ve been robbed in any of those. 

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12 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

As @Bring-Back-Powell said though, because the Dogs are already 8th, they’re already in. So someone out of the 8 has to pass us for us to miss. That has to be St Kilda or Richmond. 

So if you’re thinking about whether we miss, either Richmond wins out and gets to 13.5 wins, and we lose out, or St Kilda wins out and gets to 14 wins (and we lose out), or somehow they win 3 games and close the 25% percentage gap (and we lose out). 

It is highly improbable that one of those sides wins all 4 of their remaining games, and we lose all 4 of ours. 

Fair enough.

I'll hold onto your phrase "...highly improbable..." for comfort 

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22 hours ago, binman said:

Depends what metric you want use - the Demonland hand wringing metric  or the betting market metrics.

On the former, we are no chance this Friday night. 

On the latter, we are currently 1.86 favourites. 

I was pretty confident our odds would drift a bit, at least into even money (which is how we opened for this game), particularly after the news BB was still out. 

But i just checked then, and we have actually come in and are now into $1.80 to win.

Which, given we are only two days out from the game (and therefore the pool is pretty big and somewhat immune from big price swings) suggests the pros considered the 1.90 opening quote and the 1.86 available yesterday were both overs, and have invested accordingly, forcing the price down.

We still might drift a touch, and maybe even back to even money, but only if the pros think the 2.05 you can currently get for Freo is overs. 

Given we are playing this game on their home deck, and their form over the last few weeks is at least on par with ours, 1.80 favoritism suggest the market is pretty bullish about our chances.

(nb: as i noted in another thread, odds are just  an expression of probability. So of course the fact we are favorite for the game doesn't mean we win, or if we do the bookies have got it wrong. At 1.80 favorites, if we play this game 10 times we win aprox 5.5 times and LOSE 4.5 times. Even money is 50 50)

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On 7/25/2022 at 1:00 PM, old55 said:

Of course you'd think that, because if doom is in any way possible then you'll embrace it fervently.

At the time I posted both Freo andd MFC were at $1.92 for the win, right now it's Freo $1.98 and MFC $1.86.

https://www.afl.com.au/fixture?Competition=1&CompSeason=43&MatchTimezone=MY_TIME&Regions=2&ShowBettingOdds=1&GameWeeks=20&Teams=1&Venues=13#byround

 

Odds schmods

What were the odds of North beating Richmond? $7.00?

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