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Dees Slide in Champion Data 2020 Rankings

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41 minutes ago, chook fowler said:

totally meaningless. 

It's actually not if you bother to dig into how they work out their ratings within the context of how the club has spoken about our last preseason leading into the impact it had on our actual season. You can then overlay that onto the difference so far with the current preseason to make an assessment on how we might go in 2020. The ranking is based on previous performance, it's not a prediction tool.

Of course, that's if you bother to think about it rather than just looking at the final list and getting all upset about it.

 

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Champion Data is a load of rubbish it is only a guide they never count the 1%ers which players do and when a team slides down the ladder due to injuries they are never taken into account.

The player demographics is a better guide we have a young and inexperienced team who's team dynamics was disrupted by having injuries to key players.

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1 minute ago, Lord Nev said:

It's actually not if you bother to dig into how they work out their ratings within the context of how the club has spoken about our last preseason leading into the impact it had on our actual season. You can then overlay that onto the difference so far with the current preseason to make an assessment on how we might go in 2020. The ranking is based on previous performance, it's not a prediction tool.

Of course, that's if you bother to think about it rather than just looking at the final list and getting all upset about it.

 

On that basis they are still wrong. If it is a ranking based on previous performance it is almost pointless we have the end of season ladder for that.

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Further Breakdown of Each Club

ADELAIDE

Champion Data overall list rating: 15th

List rating for 2019: 2nd

Player breakdown

- Elite: 2

- Above average: 5

- Average: 10

- Below average: 4

- Poor: 3

We say: Despite a modest 2018, Champion Data still rated the Crows’ talent. They had injuries and off field issues and, given they were the 2017 minor premiers, would bounce back. It didn’t happen. The mass exodus of players this off-season could also explain why Adelaide has fallen so far in Champion Data’s estimations. Improvement must come from those 10 average players.

BRISBANE

Champion Data overall list rating: 11th

List rating for 2019: 10th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 6

- Above average: 4

- Average: 5

- Below average: 8

- Poor: 2

We say: Is this a case of the collective triumphing over individual talent? It seems strange that a team that earned the double chance could have 10 sides ahead of it. While the Lions boast six elite players, the eight in the below average category could be a detracting factor.

CARLTON

Champion Data overall list rating: 16th

List rating for 2019: 16th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 1

- Above average: 6

- Average: 7

- Below average: 10

- Poor: 5

We say: We’ll give you one guess as to who the Blues’ only elite player is. Paddy Cripps should receive more help this year, but 15 players that are below average or poor doesn’t necessarily bode well. Things can change pretty quickly, though, Blues fan.

COLLINGWOOD

Champion Data overall list rating: 3rd

List rating for 2019: 5th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 2

- Above average: 11

- Average: 11

- Below average: 3

- Poor: 2

We say: The Magpies’ list appears to be one of the more balanced, with a good mix between above average and average players. If a portion of the above average group can join Brodie Grundy and Darcy Moore in the elite category the club could rise again.

ESSENDON

Champion Data overall list rating: 9th

List rating for 2019: 4th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 3

- Above average: 8

- Average: 8

- Below average: 5

- Poor: 4

We say: Despite boasting three elite players, the Bombers were one of seven teams without an All-Australian representative in 2019. If Joe Daniher can return to full fitness he could be added to that category. The sliding standard of Essendon’s list doesn’t bode well for the club in its quest for its first finals win since 2004.

FREMANTLE

Champion Data overall list rating: 17th

List rating for 2019: 17th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 1

- Above average: 7

- Average: 7

- Below average: 10

- Poor: 5

We say: Despite recruiting Blake Acres (St Kilda) and James Aish (Collingwood), the Dockers haven’t risen in Champion Data’s estimations. They did lose a smattering of players, including the very talented Bradley Hill (St Kilda) and Ed Langdon (Melbourne), as well as veteran ruckman Aaron Sandilands, who retired.

GEELONG

Champion Data overall list rating: 7th

List rating for 2019: 6th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 2

- Above average: 9

- Average: 9

- Below average: 9

- Poor: 0

We say: The Cats lost Tim Kelly (West Coast) but gained Jack Steven (St Kilda), with the club sliding one spot in the process. Clearly, Champion Data’s formula is more nuanced than that but it speaks to the player Steven has been and star that Kelly has become. Richmond and North Melbourne are the only other team with zero poor players.

GOLD COAST

Champion Data overall list rating: 18th

List rating for 2019: 18th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 1

- Above average: 2

- Average: 11

- Below average: 10

- Poor: 6

We say: The collective total of three elite and above average players is the worst by some margin, while no other team has six players rated as poor. A few more pre-seasons into the emerging crop of stars should change things around.

GWS

Champion Data overall list rating: 4th

List rating for 2019: 7th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 6

- Above average: 6

- Average: 5

- Below average: 6

- Poor: 5

We say: Only West Coast and Brisbane have the same number of elite players as this year’s grand finalists. Despite the retirement of Brett Deledio and loss of Jon Patton and Adam Tomlinson the Giants are on the rise, according to Champion Data. That growth is clearly internal and could be found in the likes of best and fairest winner Tim Taranto.

HAWTHORN

Champion Data overall list rating: 10th

List rating for 2019: 9th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 3

- Above average: 7

- Average: 9

- Below average: 7

- Poor: 3

We say: A small improvement for the Hawks, with Champion Data ranking them as the ninth best list in the AFL for 2020. That’s despite the loss of veterans Jarryd Roughead and Grant Birchall, while Jon Patton and Sam Frost have joined Alastair Clarkson’s team.

MELBOURNE

Champion Data overall list rating: 12th

List rating for 2019: 1st

Player breakdown

- Elite: 1

- Above average: 6

- Average: 12

- Below average: 6

- Poor: 4

We say: This is a pretty big fall from the top. The Demons need more than seven players to be above average if they’re going to get back into the top-eight. Big years from the likes of Jake Lever and Steven May could really help.

NORTH MELBOURNE

Champion Data overall list rating: 6th

List rating for 2019: 8th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 3

- Above average: 7

- Average: 11

- Below average: 7

- Poor: 0

We say: As one of just three clubs with no poor players, Champion Data believes the Kangaroos have the talent to make finals. Converting talent into a winning formula isn’t always a sure thing, but this is a good start.

PORT ADELAIDE

Champion Data overall list rating: 8th

List rating for 2019: 12th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 1

- Above average: 11

- Average: 8

- Below average: 5

- Poor: 1

We say: There has never been a more important year for coach Ken Hinkley and, on Champion Data’s evidence, the Port Adelaide coach has a better list for 2020 than he did in 2019. Importantly, Hinkley has the eighth best list at his disposal, which could increase the Power’s finals prospects. Travis Boak might like some company in the elite category, however.

RICHMOND

Champion Data overall list rating: 1st

List rating for 2019: 3rd

Player breakdown

- Elite: 5

- Above average: 6

- Average: 11

- Below average: 4

- Poor: 0

We say: No surprises here. They’re the premiers for a reason. Only four players on the list who are below average speaks absolute volumes. Stars across every line.

ST KILDA

Champion Data overall list rating: 13th

List rating for 2019: 14th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 2

- Above average: 8

- Average: 7

- Below average: 13

- Poor: 1

We say: A slight improvement for the Saints, who will look remarkably different on the field in 2020. Improvement must come from the 13 players in the below average bracket. Strangely, both of the club’s elite players are ruckmen in Rowan Marshall and Paddy Ryder.

SYDNEY

Champion Data overall list rating: 14th

List rating for 2019: 13th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 2

- Above average: 8

- Average: 7

- Below average: 8

- Poor: 3

We say: The Swans are in a rebuild phase and, as Champion Data predicted with its list analysis last year, the drop off was inevitable in 2019. As the new kids on the block are blooded with more games there should be a shift in the coming years.

WEST COAST

Champion Data overall list rating: 5th

List rating for 2019: 11th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 6

- Above average: 7

- Average: 4

- Below average: 6

- Poor: 5

We say: Last year Champion Data copped plenty of flack when they rated the premiers’ list as the 11th best, but the predicament should be different this time around. The top end talent is supreme at the Eagles, who have the weaponry to add another flag to their arsenal.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Champion Data overall list rating: 2nd

List rating for 2019: 15th

Player breakdown

- Elite: 4

- Above average: 9

- Average: 10

- Below average: 6

- Poor: 1

We say: The absolute bolter in this list, but given the Bulldogs’ meteoric rise in the second half of the year it’s not a total shock. Luke Beveridge has assembled a team that looks destined for success in 2020, with Champion Data estimating that only Richmond’s list is better.

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13 < 11 it seems? CD are a bunch of nerds who do no more than fudge SuperCoach scores.

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Good work for Champion Data to try and apply statistics and rankings to a game that is incredibly difficult to apply statistics to and rank. I think there formula is probably very close to the best way of trying to do it.

But these lists are basically meaningless.

There is so much that happens in a game that cannot be ranked. 

Champion Data is basically meaningless

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48 minutes ago, ManDee said:

On that basis they are still wrong. If it is a ranking based on previous performance it is almost pointless we have the end of season ladder for that.

Get what you're saying, but it's a list analysis, not a team performance analysis. They explain that further in the article.

 

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Stats generally fall into 3 categories. 

1. Lead indicator

2. Lag indicator

3. Vanity metric

Unfortunately, this statistical set seems to fall into category 3. Doesn't accurately describe the previous session and equally doesn't appear to predict the next. 

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Exactly what we need, the media telling us we're sh@@.....

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5 hours ago, Redleg said:

Data shmata. 

Win games, rest is fodder.

Spot on, only good for supercoach players, the only stats that matter are goals & points.

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I'm not surprised the Bulldogs are second.  The 'List Profiles' thread shows they have a lot of players in the 'sweet spot' for age and experience.  Highly likely to play deep into the finals in 2020 imv.

The surprise for me is Essendon.  They did virtually nothing during the trade or the draft to improve their list yet they continually get big wraps for both and now in this CD analysis.  They are dreaming.  Can't see Ess making finals in 2020.

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One elite player for us?  So Clarry just above average?   please.

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7 hours ago, Demonland said:

We only need to worry if Kane Cornes predicts us to win the flag.

The trick is to get Robert Walls to predict you for the Wooden Spoon ala his West Coast prediction for the 2018 season

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Just now, John Demonic said:

The trick is to get Robert Walls to predict you for the Wooden Spoon ala his West Coast prediction for the 2018 season

My problem with this is that even a broken clock is right twice a day. :P

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4 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

It's actually not if you bother to dig into how they work out their ratings within the context of how the club has spoken about our last preseason leading into the impact it had on our actual season. You can then overlay that onto the difference so far with the current preseason to make an assessment on how we might go in 2020. The ranking is based on previous performance, it's not a prediction tool.

Of course, that's if you bother to think about it rather than just looking at the final list and getting all upset about it.

 

100% this. It’s literally player data from the previous season summarized. Most of our players were shithouse, so it’s hardly surprising that statistically our rating dropped. Again, this is data on what happened last year, not some sort of magical prediction. 

Gawn the only elite player is about right. I love Clarry, but his impact on games last season was down. Dinky handballs, less goals, he was above average but not elite.

To those saying how did Bulldogs get ranked second, they finished 7th, played finals, had players like Dunkley, Bont and Macrae crank out elite seasons, and have added players like Keath and Bruce over the offseason which will have bumped up their rankings.

Edited by Lord Travis
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Data ? Stats? ............What does this all mean?       Go out there and play Dees!  Hopefully we have minimal   injuries and a solid pre season.

The rest will take care of itself. 

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 ADELAIDE (2)

Brodie Smith (General defender)

Taylor Walker (Key forward)

BRISBANE (6)

Dayne Zorko (Midfielder)

Daniel Rich (General defender)

Mitch Robinson (Wing)

Jarryd Lyons (Midfielder)

Harris Andrews (Key defender)

Lachie Neale (Midfielder)

CARLTON (1)

Patrick Cripps (Midfielder)

COLLINGWOOD (2)

Brodie Grundy (Ruckman)

Darcy Moore (Key defender)

ESSENDON (3)

Zach Merrett (Midfielder)

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (General forward)

Conor McKenna (General defender)

FREMANTLE (1)

Nat Fyfe (Midfielder)

GEELONG (2)

Patrick Dangerfield (Midfielder)

Gary Ablett (General forward)

GOLD COAST (1)

Hugh Greenwood (Mid-forward)

GWS (6)

Zac Williams (General defender)

Jeremy Finlayson (Key forward)

Jeremy Cameron (Key forward)

Lachie Whitfield (Mid-forward)

Callan Ward (Midfielder)

Stephen Coniglio (Midfielder)

HAWTHORN (3)

Ben McEvoy (Ruckman)

Luke Breust (General forward)

Ricky Henderson (Wing)

MELBOURNE (1)

Max Gawn (Ruckman)

NORTH MELBOURNE (3)

Todd Goldstein (Ruckman)

Majak Daw (Key defender)

Ben Cunnington (Midfielder)

PORT ADELAIDE (1)

Travis Boak (Midfielder)

RICHMOND (5)

Dustin Martin (Mid-forward)

Dion Prestia (Midfield)

Shane Edwards (General defender)

Nick Vlastuin (General defender)

Sydney Stack (General defender)

ST KILDA (2)

Paddy Ryder (Ruckman)

Rowan Marshall (Ruckman)

SYDNEY (2)

Dane Rampe (Key defender)

Lance Franklin (Key forward)

WEST COAST (6)

Nic Naitanui (Ruckman)

Jeremy McGovern (Key defender)

Jack Darling (Key forward)

Elliott Yeo (Midfielder)

Jamie Cripps (General forward)

Shannon Hurn (General defender)

WESTERN BULLDOGS (4)

Marcus Bontempelli (Midfielder)

Matthew Suckling (General defender)

Jack Macrae (Midfielder)

Caleb Daniel (General defender)

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This list of elite players does not tally with common sense.  How can Daw be ‘elite’ if he didnt play last year?  And Nic Nat?

And Old ‘swayback no hammies’ Franklin.  He was a great, but only got our of first gear a couple of times.

And Ablett - elite at whinging.  Walker - really?  Sook to momma in the big games.

This looks like a ‘fanboy favourite’ list, rather than reality.  If this is how they judge ‘elite’ then it is no wonder the rankings they provide per team are so divorced from reality.

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On 12/5/2019 at 9:01 AM, Demonland said:

 

MELBOURNE

Champion Data overall list rating: 12th

List rating for 2019: 1st

Player breakdown

- Poor: 4

I wonder who the four poor buggers are?

If Buckenara's on the payroll he'd have Harmes as poor and Josh Wagner above average.

Edited by Bring-Back-Powell

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On 12/5/2019 at 11:48 AM, ben russell said:

Bulldogs at number 2 almost as outrageous.

Was that the side that lost by 58 point in their one and only final and didn't get an ounce of scrutiny from the media.

Meanwhile the year before we lost a final by only 8 more points (despite winning 2 earlier finals) in hostile territory and extreme heat, and the media portrayed that loss as a crime to humanity.

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21 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

I love Clarry, but his impact on games last season was down.

 

55 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Taylor Walker (Key forward)

I thought Clayton was down a bit last season and was surprised that he tied the B&F...

...but if Taylor Walker is elite then something is wrong with the stats/analysis.

Talk was of dropping him last year and he only kept his place in the team because he was the skipper.

That's a very dodgy list and doesn't do Champion Data any favours.

Daniel & Suckling, no Dunkley?

Greenwood (no Oliver) wasn't he dropped during the season.

Ryder dropped at Port...

Ward missed most of the season...how did Rance miss?

 

 

Edited by rjay
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22 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I'm not surprised the Bulldogs are second.  The 'List Profiles' thread shows they have a lot of players in the 'sweet spot' for age and experience.  Highly likely to play deep into the finals in 2020 imv.

The surprise for me is Essendon.  They did virtually nothing during the trade or the draft to improve their list yet they continually get big wraps for both and now in this CD analysis.  They are dreaming.  Can't see Ess making finals in 2020.

I genuinely like nearly all your posts LH but I love this one. Gosh I really hope you are right about Essendon though. I still surprise myself with how much I dislike that Club

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1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Was that the side that lost by 58 point in their one and only final and didn't get an ounce of scrutiny from the media.

Meanwhile the year before we lost a final by only 8 more points (despite winning 2 earlier finals) in hostile territory and extreme heat, and the media portrayed that loss as a crime to humanity.

Sorry, quoted wrong comment.

Edited by Lord Nev

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